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Wasn't sure what else to call it. But this topic follows on from KBD512's comment in this thread.
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=8268
If Elon Musk is successful in his efforts to reduce the cost of a Starship launch to Low Earth Orbit to $2million, then it opens opportunities that mission planners and payload engineers are unprepared for. For sixty years, commercial access to space has been a reality, but the high cost of launch vehicle operations has limited ambitions and has pushed the satellite industry in the direction on incurring large costs and novel engineering solutions to reduce payload weight. The high cost of launch services, result in expensive payloads, in an effort to minimise total mission cost. If launch costs are reduced from $20,000/kg to $20/kg, the design criteria for space payloads changes suddenly. The engineering solutions that are appropriate for minimum cost design, are entirely different to those that have developed in the previous sixty years. Primary capital cost becomes the dominant cost driver.
It also opens possibilities that were inconceivable before. The assumption until 2000, was that space colonisation was something that would have to be government led because of the enormous costs involved. Musk's Mars colonisation plans and the development of reduced cost privately developed launch vehicles, opened the possibility that big business might be a possible contender as well. But costs were still too high for most business groups or individuals to even contemplate starting such an effort. If launch costs are reduced to $20/kg, then launching a 100 tonne space payload is within reach of a huge number of individuals or groups of citizens. Manned missions become possible through individual or corporate funding. The type of engineering appropriate to this sort of programme is clearly very different to anything contemplated before. Mass is far less important than overall system reliability and low development and capital costs. Choosing an appropriate target is also important. To small groups, manned missions to Mars are not very practical, because of the high system cost involved in developing solutions for safe landing, surface survival and return to Earth. For smaller Near Earth Objects as targets, the difficulty is reduced, as the entire journey from LEO to asteroid surface can be carried out using low thrust propulsion, probably in the form of solar powered arcjet.
My proposed reference mission is as follows: To colonise and develop space manufacturing industry on and around a NEA, with the goal of manufacturing satellites and space hardware for use in Earth Orbit. My proposed candidate is asteroid Bennu, for the following reasons: (1) The demonstrated presence of water and ammonia, two important volatile substances, for both life support and industrial manufacturing; (2) apogee and perigee not too far from 1AU, which means ample sunlight all year round and minimal delta-v to reach; (3) Small diameter (500m) makes landing or takeoff easy - a space factory in orbit around Bennu can mine materials from its surface using manipulator arms; (4) A total mass of 73million tonnes, which justifies making it the focal point of investment for a space manufacturing effort.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/101955_Bennu
My plan would be to launch space payloads, both manned and unmanned equipment deliveries, in individual Starship launches. Each payload would be equipped with a solar powered arcjet engine, which would carry it to Bennu. At Bennu, individual factory and habitat modules would be anchored to an equatorial cable, with each module located above the stationary orbit point, such that the cable in kept in tension. New modules can be added incrementally, with care taken to maintain centre of mass with the centre of Bennu. Transport between modules would be via cable car.
All power will be solar PV. In zero-g, panels can be extremely slender and light by Earth standards and can be kept sun facing 100% of time - no storage needed. The same panels that power the arcjet tugs can provide initial power for the manufacturing colony. Electrical power should therefore be cheap at Bennu and whole system ERoEI will be good enough to allow rapid manufacturing growth.
Living units will need to be shielded and will rotate to produce gravity. Greenhouse units will be partially shielded and will rotate more slowly, reducing structural mass burdens.
When the initial colony is established, it should be possible to gain corporate sponsorship from a large number of private companies, who will also contribute both equipment and intellectual property, in exchange for a share in profit from any manufactured goods. Small satellites and space station modules, can be delivered back to Earth orbit using the same arcjet thrusters that were used to deliver people and materials to Bennu. Larger payloads will need dedicated propulsion systems. Solar power satellites are likely to be a big source of revenue, provided that funding can be secured for construction of rectenna on Earth.
Anyway, that is a starter for discussion.
Last edited by Calliban (2021-06-17 08:33:16)
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
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Interesting ideas but I wouldn't want that to become a diversion from the main Mars colonisation effort.
I think what many people coming at this from engineering or science backgrounds forget is the commercial dimension. People will be prepared to may large sums of money for commercial projects on Mars. Take just one example: how much do you think Ford or Toyota would pay to send one of their vehicles to be the first vehicle (assuming Tesla doesn't get a free ride!). These companies have annual advertising and sales budgets in the billions. I think they could easily allocate 25% of their annual budget (maybe over a three year payment period - so maybe allocate 8% to the Mars campaign) to fund a car being taken to Mars and videoed/photographed on the surface.
Toyota spent $1.5 billion on advertising in US and Canada alone in 2019 and $4.3 billion worldwide! I think it would be worth $1 billion for them to have the first car on the surface of Mars, featuring in so many news broadcasts and then available as part of the brand's image for several years. As indicated they wouldn't have to pay it all up front - $333 million per annum for three years would be OK.
There are many such commercial opportunities on Mars.
Wasn't sure what else to call it. But this topic follows on from KBD512's comment in this thread.
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=8268
If Elon Musk is successful in his efforts to reduce the cost of a Starship launch to Low Earth Orbit to $2million, then it opens opportunities that mission planners and payload engineers are unprepared for. For sixty years, commercial access to space has been a reality, but the high cost of launch vehicle operations has limited ambitions and has pushed the satellite industry in the direction on incurring large costs and novel engineering solutions to reduce payload weight. The high cost of launch services, result in expensive payloads, in an effort to minimise total mission cost. If launch costs are reduced from $20,000/kg to $20/kg, the design criteria for space payloads changes suddenly. The engineering solutions that are appropriate for minimum cost design, are entirely different to those that have developed in the previous sixty years. Primary capital cost becomes the dominant cost driver.
It also opens possibilities that were inconceivable before. The assumption until 2000, was that space colonisation was something that would have to be government led because of the enormous costs involved. Musk's Mars colonisation plans and the development of reduced cost privately developed launch vehicles, opened the possibility that big business might be a possible contender as well. But costs were still too high for most business groups or individuals to even contemplate starting such an effort. If launch costs are reduced to $20/kg, then launching a 100 tonne space payload is within reach of a huge number of individuals or groups of citizens. Manned missions become possible through individual or corporate funding. The type of engineering appropriate to this sort of programme is clearly very different to anything contemplated before. Mass is far less important than overall system reliability and low development and capital costs. Choosing an appropriate target is also important. To small groups, manned missions to Mars are not very practical, because of the high system cost involved in developing solutions for safe landing, surface survival and return to Earth. For smaller Near Earth Objects as targets, the difficulty is reduced, as the entire journey from LEO to asteroid surface can be carried out using low thrust propulsion, probably in the form of solar powered arcjet.
My proposed reference mission is as follows: To colonise and develop space manufacturing industry on and around a NEA, with the goal of manufacturing satellites and space hardware for use in Earth Orbit. My proposed candidate is asteroid Bennu, for the following reasons: (1) The demonstrated presence of water and ammonia, two important volatile substances, for both life support and industrial manufacturing; (2) apogee and perigee not too far from 1AU, which means ample sunlight all year round and minimal delta-v to reach; (3) Small diameter (500m) makes landing or takeoff easy - a space factory in orbit around Bennu can mine materials from its surface using manipulator arms; (4) A total mass of 73million tonnes, which justifies making it the focal point of investment for a space manufacturing effort.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/101955_BennuMy plan would be to launch space payloads, both manned and unmanned equipment deliveries, in individual Starship launches. Each payload would be equipped with a solar powered arcjet engine, which would carry it to Bennu. At Bennu, individual factory and habitat modules would be anchored to an equatorial cable running around the crater, with each module located above the stationary orbit point, such that the cable in kept in tension. New modules can be added incrementally, with care taken to maintain centre of mass with the centre of Bennu. Transport between modules would be via cable car.
All power will be solar PV. In zero-g, panels can be extremely slender and light by Earth standards and can be kept sun facing 100% of time - no storage needed. The same panels that power the arcjet tugs can provide initial power for the manufacturing colony. Electrical power should therefore be cheap at Bennu and whole system ERoEI will be good enough to allow rapid manufacturing growth.
Living units will need to be shielded and will rotate to produce gravity. Greenhouse units will be partially shielded and will rotate more slowly, reducing structural mass burdens.
When the initial colony is established, it should be possible to gain corporate sponsorship from a large number of private companies, who will also contribute both equipment and intellectual property, in exchange for a share in profit from any manufactured goods. Small satellites and space station modules, can be delivered back to Earth orbit using the same arcjet thrusters that were used to deliver people and materials to Bennu. Larger payloads will need dedicated propulsion systems. Solar power satellites are likely to be a big source of revenue, provided that funding can be secured for construction of rectenna on Earth.
Anyway, that is a starter for discussion.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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For Calliban re promising new topic!
Best wishes for success with this one!
It certainly has potential, as non-governmental entities invest in the space arena.
For Louis ... there is surely room enough for ** both ** your visions .... The Solar System has a ** lot ** of real estate to explore and (for those so inclined) to develop.
Bennu (and asteroids in general) is a ** source ** of wealth ... Mars will be a sink for many many (Earth) years.
(th)
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Indeed but there was a suggestion Mars Colonisation would be too expensive a proposition and so Near Earth colonisation would be a sort of first step. I've no problem with both things being done but Mars colonisation needs to take precedence.
For Calliban re promising new topic!
For Louis ... there is surely room enough for ** both ** your visions .... The Solar System has a ** lot ** of real estate to explore and (for those so inclined) to develop.
(th)
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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