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The Starship/Booster programme seems to be progressing at an impressive lick.
Surely we must see an orbital flight by the year's end.
Am I being too optimistic?
If orbital flight is achieved by end 2021, how do the things stand for the first human landing?
Could it be 2026, with a robot landing in 2024?
That would leave time for some testing orbital flights around the moon - maybe even a lunar landing.
(This speculation includes the very real prospect of political intereference to prevent the programme going forward.)
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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I suspect the first manned flight will be the Dear Moon flight with the Japanese Billionaire doing a circumlunar flight, although there may be an unmanned rehearsal first. It would seem only prudent (as well as a probable FAA requirement) before a crew would/could fly.
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Would they put in a commercial payer on the first human flight? I think they'll run it with a professional crew only. But Dear Moon would follow v. quickly after a successful non-commercial flight I think. And yes, I am sure they will do a robot orbital and circumlunar flight before, for each, humans are involved.
I suspect the first manned flight will be the Dear Moon flight with the Japanese Billionaire doing a circumlunar flight, although there may be an unmanned rehearsal first. It would seem only prudent (as well as a probable FAA requirement) before a crew would/could fly.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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All else being equal, another decade could see men walk the sands of Mars. However, I doubt that all else will be equal. What if the world gets hit by another great recession or even a great depression and Tesla becomes junk stock? Musk would have to scale back his space ambitions dramatically, as much of his paper wealth would disappear very quickly. In fact, I think this is the most likely scenario. First footsteps on Mars could be mid century, or maybe never at all.
Last edited by Calliban (2021-02-26 10:31:52)
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
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Given virtually every major government has committed to electric road transport by 2040 I can't see Tesla shares going anywhere but north. But, yes, the unexpected can happen. But even in the Great Depression of the 1930s, new industries like electricity generation and automobile manufacture continued to grow.
I think you are being way too pessimistic. There is no doubt Musk wants this done at Apollo project speed. Space X and he have the money.
The rate at which they are knocking out Starships and their rockets is phenomenal. Improvements are being made all the time.
If they achieve orbital by end 2021, then I really can't see major obstacles, assuming (a) no legal or administrative barriers are put in place and (b) NASA co-operate with him on communications, satellite imagery and all other necessary facilities.
If NASA refused to co-operate that could delay things as he would have to get other countries to help him and/or build his own facilities. But so far everything suggests NASA/JPL have been co-operating very closely with Space X e.g. on potential landing sites.
A human landing by 2026 seems eminently doable. It would mean mastering some basic ISRU, solar energy generation on the surface, methane and oxygen production on Mars, EVAs, maintenance and return launch of a Starship, hab facility assembly, and life support technology. Sounds daunting but most of the technology is already in place.
All else being equal, another decade could see men walk the sands of Mars. However, I doubt that all else will be equal. What if the world gets hit by another great recession or even a great depression and Tesla becomes junk stock? Musk would have to scale back his space ambitions dramatically, as much of his paper wealth would disappear very quickly. In fact, I think this is the most likely scenario. First footsteps on Mars could be mid century, or maybe never at all.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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We shall see over the next five years whether you are correct regarding a 2026 manned landing.
Tesla stocks are trading at P/E of 1300. That means 1 cent of earnings for every $13 of shares. It is one of the highest PE ratios in history. If Tesla were producing something unique and revolutionary and were destined to become the biggest car maker in the world, that might be sustainable. But there are plenty of other competitors. And as things stand, electric cars are a rich man's toy. They are not easily affordable to most people and it is doubtful that they ever will be in their present form. Their market share is therefore small. If we face another big recession and a substantial reduction in employment and average earnings, Tesla could easily go bankrupt.
Introducing the EV is going to be an uphill struggle, because the laws of physics are against you. The difference between electric cars and previous innovations, is that this is a technology that is undeniably inferior in its performance compared to what it is trying to replace. It's high cost and range issues both have their roots in the same basic problem: the poor energy density of electrochemical batteries. This isn't a problem for which there is an easy solution. And it is being introduced at a time when tge average person is growing progressively poorer, due to the deteriorating energy dynamic of the economy. Tesla have done their best to work around the inherent problems of battery electric, by using Li-ion batteries and developing a frame and chassis that is light and low drag. The result is a very mediocre vehicle that is twice as expensive as competing IC driven car. Governments can virtue signal all that they want. But banning IC engines will not make the EV more affordable to ordinary people.
The above discussion applies to cars and light vehicles. The difficulties involved in introducing electric power into goods transport are even more daunting.
Last edited by Calliban (2021-02-26 17:00:41)
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
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I think that before a starship can show its able to land we need to show that we can land more than we currently do to pave the way towards a starship landing. We know until we do that its going to be to the moon for a least a decade and we do not want that since we saw that with the shuttle and the ISS. It became the only thing that Nasa could and was directed to do....
What we know from Falcon 9 booster stages need to be applied to landing on Mars but we also need to launch that into an orbit to show what shielding is needed for a entry landing to make sure we do not need more shielding or fuel. Since a Falcon 9 heavy can launch 63 mT to orbit then why not end up a booster with mass compensated fuel to prove landing fully.
Starship also needs to get to orbit and obtain entry needs to show it can even return to earth from the moon or from Mars on flybys.
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Re EVs you're ignoring that once you have an electric road infrastructure with induction charging of vehicles on the move, EVs win out on range and convenience. You can also then have a much lower battery weight onboard which means the vehicle itself will be much cheaper. The idea it will remain a rich guy's toy is absurd.
We shall see over the next five years whether you are correct regarding a 2026 manned landing.
Tesla stocks are trading at P/E of 1300. That means 1 cent of earnings for every $13 of shares. It is one of the highest PE ratios in history. If Tesla were producing something unique and revolutionary and were destined to become the biggest car maker in the world, that might be sustainable. But there are plenty of other competitors. And as things stand, electric cars are a rich man's toy. They are not easily affordable to most people and it is doubtful that they ever will be in their present form. Their market share is therefore small. If we face another big recession and a substantial reduction in employment and average earnings, Tesla could easily go bankrupt.
Introducing the EV is going to be an uphill struggle, because the laws of physics are against you. The difference between electric cars and previous innovations, is that this is a technology that is undeniably inferior in its performance compared to what it is trying to replace. It's high cost and range issues both have their roots in the same basic problem: the poor energy density of electrochemical batteries. This isn't a problem for which there is an easy solution. And it is being introduced at a time when tge average person is growing progressively poorer, due to the deteriorating energy dynamic of the economy. Tesla have done their best to work around the inherent problems of battery electric, by using Li-ion batteries and developing a frame and chassis that is light and low drag. The result is a very mediocre vehicle that is twice as expensive as competing IC driven car. Governments can virtue signal all that they want. But banning IC engines will not make the EV more affordable to ordinary people.
The above discussion applies to cars and light vehicles. The difficulties involved in introducing electric power into goods transport are even more daunting.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Musk's Un-manned coming Soon?
Elon Musk says Mars-bound Starship will launch from ‘ocean spaceport’ next year
https://news.yahoo.com/elon-musk-says-m … 16157.html
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Wow - this is big news B4!
Loving the rig names. Is that a dig at another company (Boeing? Lockheed?) who wanted to put a base on Phobos and Deimos and launch from there!!
Anyway as always Musk surprises. Next year!
I can't think it would be going to land cargo specifically for the Mission - could it be launch a communications network, similar to Starlink?
Who knows, or maybe he's decided use 2022 as the test run for 2024 robot mission.
This is beyond exciting for we who love all things Mars!
Here's a link to a news website:
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-styl … 56911.html
Musk's Un-manned coming Soon?
Elon Musk says Mars-bound Starship will launch from ‘ocean spaceport’ next year
https://news.yahoo.com/elon-musk-says-m … 16157.html
Last edited by louis (2021-05-31 13:45:14)
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Musk's 2022 announcement is getting quite a lot of interest from the MSM.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech … -2022.html
I have a theory about this. I reckon that following Kamala Harris's appointment to head up the National Space Council, Musk is aware of an attempt to derail his Mars colonisation plans and he has therefore decided to "go early" with some sort of Mars shot to get public opinion onside and so prevent the plot succeeding. It seems extremely odd to me that he should suddenly announce this isolated Mars shot ahead of the real mission. While it could add something, it's more likely to be a diversion from a thousand tasks that need careful attention.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Lets play devils advocate saying that it could launch and land never to return once it touches down something in the future.
A sea launch ups the level of launches of fuel for the starship to reload with which is on the order of 5 to 7 starships full for payload...
Sure making the fuel from the sea water may be possible but getting the BFR first stage to the oil rig platform is a problem.
A refueling in space of liquid methane and lox have never been done let alone a mating system from one starship to another starship to at makes them possible as loading of the first ones fuel then other might be a problem....
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Orbital fuelling technology is probably the main obstacle to a Mars Mission in 2022 in as much as it's never been done before though pumps and similar have of course been much used. I don't think accurate alignment of the 2 ships would be a problem. Accurate alignment of engines might be more difficult. Presumably powerful magnets could help.
Presumably for Earth launch the Starships can be fuelled from barges pulling alongside the rigs. The rigs might well have room for tanks.
Lets play devils advocate saying that it could launch and land never to return once it touches down something in the future.
A sea launch ups the level of launches of fuel for the starship to reload with which is on the order of 5 to 7 starships full for payload...
Sure making the fuel from the sea water may be possible but getting the BFR first stage to the oil rig platform is a problem.
A refueling in space of liquid methane and lox have never been done let alone a mating system from one starship to another starship to at makes them possible as loading of the first ones fuel then other might be a problem....
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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For SpaceNut re #12
Sure making the fuel from the sea water may be possible but getting the BFR first stage to the oil rig platform is a problem.
OK ... You stumped me !!! Why is getting the Super Heavy first stage to the platform a problem?
Suggestion: Try thinking like Elon! We can only guess of course, but the exercise should help us to stretch a bit.
(th)
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I would assume the rig will have a crane in place. So I would expect that after construction the rocket would be craned onto a barge where it would be secured by some arrangement similar to the rocket catcher. It would then be towed by tug to the rig where the rig crane would lift it on to the patform.
For SpaceNut re #12
Sure making the fuel from the sea water may be possible but getting the BFR first stage to the oil rig platform is a problem.
OK ... You stumped me !!! Why is getting the Super Heavy first stage to the platform a problem?
Suggestion: Try thinking like Elon! We can only guess of course, but the exercise should help us to stretch a bit.
(th)
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Just a comment regarding Tesla. I live in a Northern Colorado community of ~ 65,000 plus more rurally in the area. There is a new dealership in town: Tesla. My only comment about the downside is the range of EVs in the Mountain West. Upside, they are quiet and don't pollute at all.
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It's not quite true they don't pollute at all. Because of the increased mass of an EV (down to the battery) tyre wear is much greater than IC vehicles.
https://www.emissionsanalytics.com/news … -emissions
Tyre pollutants are actually one of the worst types of pollutants.
This is one reason why I think it is vital we move to electric induction roads so battery weight in EVs can be massively reduced.
Just a comment regarding Tesla. I live in a Northern Colorado community of ~ 65,000 plus more rurally in the area. There is a new dealership in town: Tesla. My only comment about the downside is the range of EVs in the Mountain West. Upside, they are quiet and don't pollute at all.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Keeping costs low is the art of not adding costs for transporting, labor to assemble, recover only to move it again and thats for both the booster and for the starship recovery. Then the power issues for the oil rig to be able to do what we want to do. Which is not considering the time lost to be able to relaunch the rocket which effects the timing for getting from orbit on time...
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Right now it could seem the tail wags the dog
ansd it seems the Chinese gain ground each couple of years, while it is true sometimes the Chinese space program moves at its own glacial pace, they are not running for sure. China they are doing a very slow jog, put they know where they are going and doing very exact steps. They soon may have new robots, their scientists get inspired by or copy stuff from NASA and the West, or China has rockets launch new stuff, or Rovers on Mars or manned missions or space stations...however the will is not there from NASA to stay ahead and run ahead of the competition. It looks like China has already got ahead in some areas they tested a small bio-sphere on the Moon with seeds and silkworms and plants, stuff done on the Moon can soon be at Mars... on the Moon some died some surived, in this area China is now ahead, it has tested a mini Bio-sphere on another world/body. NASA back in 2005 was supposed to launch the Mars Telecommunications Orbiter (MTO) - laser communication, it got delayed, cancelled, now its back on the drawing board but it looks like China will have their version launched before NASA...this MTO mission is just one of many such examples we can give from previous newmars discussions where NASA and previous Admin have allowed China to catch up or even surpass.
Also the 'political will' does not seem to be there
There is politics time for other things
Bill Nye teams up with 'Amtrak Joe' in video to promote $1.5trillion infrastructure bill
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl … -bill.html
NASA Picks Three ISS Follow-on Concepts
http://nasawatch.com/archives/2021/12/n … -thre.html
Stephen Buono: Now we can worry about space junk
https://herald-review.com/opinion/colum … 199fd.html
Biden Admin Calls for a New Kind of Global Space Governance
https://gizmodo.com/biden-admin-calls-f … 1848145598
US slams Russia for 'irresponsible' space missile test that sparked debris
https://news.yahoo.com/us-slams-russia- … 36188.html
Bill Nye promotes infrastructure, social spending bills with Biden
https://news.yahoo.com/bill-nye-promote … 10205.html
Back in the day Bill Nye the CEO of The Planetary Society with his odd tv shows might have had something important to say but I'm not sure what to make of the guy today he likes to 'patent' things that have already beenmade, he patents something free open and already invented and invested by tweaking it in some silly way and he's got more 'weird' over the years not unlike a hollywood perv type pushing something strange in a kids tv show.
Other than space-weapons
No political will to push forward and stay ahead?
Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2021-12-03 14:30:54)
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Mars_B4_Moon,
There does not seem to be much in the way of political will to return to true space exploration on the part of any space faring nation. It's still a scientific curiosity to the leadership, and something worth minor prestige points if you accomplish something that nobody else has, but that's about the extent of their interest in space exploration.
The military's interest in space appears to be limited to satellites and anti-satellite weapons. The much vaunted Russian and Chinese hypersonic missiles don't reach their targets any faster than traditional ICBMs (the original hypersonic weapons from the 1950s), despite the media hype. There's not much for them to do up there, so they don't see the point in sending any people up there, except to run biomedical experiments on them, at fantastic cost.
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Wild 3D-printed space habitat prototype designed to fit inside SpaceX Starship lands in Switzerland
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