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Not sure if this has anything new but it might be his most comprehensive outline yet...
http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10 … .29009.emu
I see he states the Red Dragon will be able to take 2-3 tonnes of useful payload to the Mars surface.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Musk says: "The threshold for a self-sustaining city on Mars or a civilization would be a million people"
Is he right? There have been many sizeable settlements (but much less than one million) on Earth that were self-sustaining. They had their own hinterland. Even if there were other human societies on Earth, they didn't have much if anything to do with them.
The equivalent of the Library of Congress can now be held in digital form in probably in a small room. A very small settlement could have access to all that knowledge.
I think there are two questions:
1. At what point could Mars be self-sustaining?
2. At what point could Mars rival Earth as a civilisation?
They are two different questions that I think Musk has perhaps merged into one.
I think the answer to 1. could be as low as 100 people. As long as they can reproduce successfully, can construct habitat, vehicles, machines, and an energy source (be it nuclear, solar or methane capture), and can farm then they would probably be self-sustaining. They would need the help of a lot of automated machinery, so they would need to have the right start-up machines at the outset to enable them to produce such machines (including 3D printers and CNC machines). Of course a community of 100 could never rival civilisation on Earth. It would be unlikely to produce great artists. Its cultural life would be dull. It might not be able to replicate so much of the life-saving medicine we see on Earth. It would produce few great new inventions.
However, I think a community as small as 100,000 could probably rival Earth civilisation. Ancient Athens had a population of only 140,000 of whom only some 40,000 were citizens. Yet it produced an unbelievably rich intellectual flowering.
The population of Mars is likely to have a strong intellectual bent. With the help of automated machines and robots, they will be able to replicate the best of what happens on Earth. For example in the field of medicine, perhaps a team of 300 doctors out of a 100K population, with the right machines, would be able to replicate the best of Earth-based medicine. I am sure there would be the equivalent of an MIT doing original research. Maybe 5000 scientists and technologists could rival Earth based science.
Last edited by louis (2017-06-23 03:25:31)
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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So Musk is looking to get the cost of Earth to Mars down to $140 per kg with the ITS once in full operational mode. That's a rather astonishingly low figure. If it wasn't Musk I would bet against him, but as it's him, it might possible long term. Short term, if we can do it for $ 20,000 per kg that will be nice.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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I'm not sure what is meant in this context by 'self-sustaining'. If you mean having the industrial capacity and labour force to manufacture most of what is needed to survive and prosper on Mars with roughly first world living standards, then you are talking about a lot of people – 1million is probably optimistic. Imagine having to try and build something like a power plant or JCB in a colony of just a few thousand people. Making complex machinery requires a lot of equipment and lot of specialised labour. It isn't garden shed stuff. Extend that to all the products of modern society and the required number of people and capital investment becomes huge.
The problem is that we need a lot of technology and industrial capability simply to survive at the most basic level on Mars. Air, soil and water are things that would need to be manufactured. Surviving and growing food requires pressurised manufactured habitats containing manufactured air, soil and water. Manufacturing these things requires a lot of energy and a lot of equipment, much of it quite complex. A person cannot even venture outside without a spacesuit. This makes a Mars colony very different to a Greek polis. They were able to live simply at very low technology levels, because nature provided the essentials for free. All they really had to do was grow or harvest sufficient food and erect basic shelter. They could also trade with other polis and others nations such as the Phoenicians. Ancient Greek lifestyle was for the most part very basic – about as basic as human living can be.
Of course, not everything has to be manufactured locally. Much will be imported. If something is complex and relatively light, it will make sense to import it. Many products will consist of parts made on both Earth and Mars. Simple heavy parts made on Mars, complex parts made on Earth, design services provided by Earth, final assembly on Mars. The key thing in this scenario is having something valuable that can be exported to pay for imports. The more you can do that, the more you can import and the less you have to make for yourself. Given the transport costs it needs to be something with high value to weight. It would be advantageous if it were something that could be made or sourced without large amounts of capital equipment or specialised labour on Mars. Any ideas?
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I would take self-sustaining to mean here able to sustain life on Mars, with some trade with Earth, although potentially without such trade if necessary.
I have a much more optimistic view than you about the ability to replicate Earth technology.
First things first, a Mars society can be much more utilitarian than its cousin society. Instead of 150,000 glass bottle shapes, maybe you can get by with 1,000. Instead of 100s of personal vehicles to choose from, maybe there will just be a golf buggy style vehicle to get you round the city and a standard Rover coach you use to travel further. Instead of 1000 fizzy drinks to choose from, maybe there will only be 5. Rather than 150000 sofa styles maybe there will be ten. Maybe people won't bother much with jewelry or have 30 shirts in their wardrobe. Maybe the textiles they use will be more limited.
Growing good food in abundance will not be a problem.
Life support won't be much of an issue after a while. We'll have plants and other organisms doing a lot of oxygen production and oxygen will be a byproduct of many industrial processes. Water is there at the surface in abundance.
A lot of the things that need people to work on them, need not exist on Mars - huge welfare bureaucracies, huge insurance companies, real estate agents, taxi drivers, lorry drivers, advertising and marketing companies, car dealers and so on. It will be a stripped down economy. That proportionally frees up a lot of labour time.
The key issue is of course dealing with complex technological requirements. Some things will be simpler. There will probably just be two or three energy technologies rather than 25 or whatever it is we might have on Earth. The Mars community will likely not bother with ICE engines. They are very complex and not really appropriate for Mars. Thankfully the Mars community won't have to put together a Boeing 747. They won't have to manage tarmac roads. They won't have to build skyscrapers or bridges. They won't bother with paper and similar products. In fact I think you are underestimating just how much they can not do and still have a very advanced society.
Then the positive - they will have all the information available in the world about how to run technological processes in digital form. It's not yet clear but they may be free of all patent laws as well. They will have the best 3D printers in the world able to fashion a huge range of parts and finished products. They will have state of the art CNC machines, lasers, furnaces, presses, and robot units. They will be able to make steel and glass. They can use the basalt on Mars to good effect. Once they grow bamboo, they will have a tremendous material at their disposal. As previously indicated I think they can make PV panels, electric motors, batteries and generators with relative ease.
Habs, vehicles, diggers, furniture, household goods, utensils, plumbing, textiles, electrical wiring...I really don't see the problem in producing those.
There may be more issues with medicines - producing such a vast range of medicines as are available on Earth could prove tricky for a small community. Whilst people will by and large enjoy a healthy existence on Mars, it may be that Aresians take a more fatalistic attitude to illness in old age and will not strive officiously to keep each other alive. Certainly medicine and medical equipment is one area where you can't reduce the "choice" without potentially negative effects. Space medicine and reproductive medicine are two areas where the Mars society won't be able to cut back.
However, medicine is really the only area of weakness I can think of.
I'm not sure what is meant in this context by 'self-sustaining'. If you mean having the industrial capacity and labour force to manufacture most of what is needed to survive and prosper on Mars with roughly first world living standards, then you are talking about a lot of people – 1million is probably optimistic. Imagine having to try and build something like a power plant or JCB in a colony of just a few thousand people. Making complex machinery requires a lot of equipment and lot of specialised labour. It isn't garden shed stuff. Extend that to all the products of modern society and the required number of people and capital investment becomes huge.
The problem is that we need a lot of technology and industrial capability simply to survive at the most basic level on Mars. Air, soil and water are things that would need to be manufactured. Surviving and growing food requires pressurised manufactured habitats containing manufactured air, soil and water. Manufacturing these things requires a lot of energy and a lot of equipment, much of it quite complex. A person cannot even venture outside without a spacesuit. This makes a Mars colony very different to a Greek polis. They were able to live simply at very low technology levels, because nature provided the essentials for free. All they really had to do was grow or harvest sufficient food and erect basic shelter. They could also trade with other polis and others nations such as the Phoenicians. Ancient Greek lifestyle was for the most part very basic – about as basic as human living can be.
Of course, not everything has to be manufactured locally. Much will be imported. If something is complex and relatively light, it will make sense to import it. Many products will consist of parts made on both Earth and Mars. Simple heavy parts made on Mars, complex parts made on Earth, design services provided by Earth, final assembly on Mars. The key thing in this scenario is having something valuable that can be exported to pay for imports. The more you can do that, the more you can import and the less you have to make for yourself. Given the transport costs it needs to be something with high value to weight. It would be advantageous if it were something that could be made or sourced without large amounts of capital equipment or specialised labour on Mars. Any ideas?
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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In terms of living areas, I have been impressed by the extent to which furniture and interiors can be crafted out of moulded and rammed soil.
http://frommoontomoon.blogspot.co.uk/20 … ouses.html
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=cob+i … D9YQsAQIKA
It would appear that in addition to the structure of a house, it is possible to craft seating, beds, cupboard space, work surfaces, sinks and even bathtubs out of compressed soil. This at least takes care of the immediate need for things like furniture within a habitat. The structure of a habitat can be created from rammed soil as well, provided it is sufficiently counter-weighted using rock and regolith against internal pressure. We would need a lot of glass to let light in.
I have no doubt that an early economy on Mars will be scaled down and simplified much as Louis suggests. It will be more manufacturing and less services oriented. It will help a lot that design services can be outsourced to Earth. I think food is going to be more of a problem that he supposes simply because relatively large pressurised, illuminated and watered areas are required to provide food for one person. Here in the UK, cities are relatively compact, but agriculture dominates about 80% of the landscape. And we are not self-sufficient in food. On Mars, all that land cannot simply be taken, it has to be made. To feed a million people, even with intense horticulture, would require about 100,000 acres. That's a lot of space that has to be covered with glass, pressurised and filled with manufactured air, water and soil.
Medicine can be simplified too. The areas of medicine that have had a big impact on life-expectancy are pre and post-natal care, surgery (mostly appendectomies and caesareans) and anti-biotic drugs. By the time most people need things like heart transplants, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, etc., they are usually old and usually they are history in spite of anything that doctors may try and do. There is a lot of debate over whether things like cancer treatment offer much benefit at all. One could make a good argument that 80+% of the benefits of medicine come from 20% of its spending.
I don't think there is any way around the fact that mining and manufacturing are going to require a lot of equipment and a lot of energy. But this is a question that would really benefit from a proper investigation. Maybe Musk could stump up the money for a few engineering PHD projects in this area?
Last edited by Antius (2017-06-23 10:57:55)
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So once we get to mars are we truely Making Humans a Multi-Planetary Species.. or will it take a few more places to say that we are....
The groupthat want to go is a large circle but the current status of those that can afford to go is very small and while we are making the cost drop the size of the can afford to go will change but only once we give an incentive for going.
The problem will be for how many years will you need to save for that stake in a ticket and how healthy you will be by time you have the knowledge to survive to stay.....
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Couple of points I think. Firstly, materials usage for small colonies is going to be v. small. Secondly, all these surface deposits on Mars are untouched by human or similar hand and so should be readily accessible. I don't see any need for deep-mining.
So we should be able to get the vast majority of what we need at the surface using diggers and power drills and little else.
I did look into the power use of diggers - quite high as I recall but well within Tesla EV battery usage.
Each scoop of a mini digger is going to be picking up maybe 20 kgs of stuff. You could do that and tip out once every 20 seconds surely...60 kgs per minute. 0.36 tonne in one hour and over a tonne in three hours.
Locating materials e.g. copper will be more of an issue than mining them I think.
I don't think there is any way around the fact that mining and manufacturing are going to require a lot of equipment and a lot of energy. But this is a question that would really benefit from a proper investigation. Maybe Musk could stump up the money for a few engineering PHD projects in this area?
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Here's an update that fits this topic ...
https://www.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-sa … 00697.html
The theme is to insure that settlers die on Mars after long and productive lives, but there are lots of risks.
This is ground the forum has explored multiple times of course.
(th)
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And if the Mars colony plans to endure and put down roots, that means having food, shelter, medical care, and mental and emotional stimulation for the entire population.
There must be redundancies and ways to repair everything. Researchers like 3D printers and chemical processes such as ligand bonding as they plan these hypothetical missions, because it’s more prudent to send raw materials that can be turned into 100 different things or 50 different medicines. The right chemical processes can recycle discarded items into fertilizer molecules.
It's also why a crew that is to small or large is a problem for the first few missions to get that beach head established aka toe and foot hold.
Prestaging lots of supplies, equipment and food stocks, energy units for that first landing to be for sure work acholic as they need to be the SeeBee's for mars.
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