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#376 2020-05-22 17:48:00

RobertDyck
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From: Winnipeg, Canada
Registered: 2002-08-20
Posts: 5,934
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Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

Terraformer wrote:

Antibodies have been found in 17% of Londoners and 5% of those in the rest of the UK. Assuming this means they're immune (and if they aren't, then we can drop the vaccine research), we have some room for re-opening. If you're immune, you should be able to go an visit people, including the self-isolating vulnerable, since you (presumably) can't get it from them or transmit it to them.

That's the problem. There are several documented cases of people catching COVID19 more than once. Why? Do antibodies not work? Or do antibodies only provide immunity against one variant, none of the others? News Medical: Coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 strains I saw a TV interview with a researcher who did DNA sequencing of the virus; he said there were 8 strains, and that's just what they had samples for. That was in March. Now there's over 30? And that's as of April 22! This is mutating fast! If antibodies provide immunity to only one strain, they're effectively useless.

SARS first appeared in November 2002, most of the fight against SARS was 2003. It's 17 years now, and still not vaccine for SARS. The scientific name for COVID19 is SARS-CoV-2, which does mean SARS version 2. Furthermore, the common cold is a corona-virus. There's no vaccine for the common cold because there are over 100 strains, and new ones constantly evolving. A vaccine would only protect against one. Even if you could create a vaccine against 100 strains of cold, that still wouldn't protect against new ones. So why would a vaccine against COVID19 work?

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#377 2020-05-22 17:49:56

RobertDyck
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Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

SpaceNut wrote:

The percentage of people that show no symptom is around 35%, which only show with testing.

Study of one town in Iceland found 50% of infected people show no symptoms what so ever. 50%. You're right, they only show with testing. But these infected people who aren't sick, are spreading the virus. One of the reasons it so damn hard to fight.

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#378 2020-05-22 18:51:02

Void
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Registered: 2011-12-29
Posts: 3,194

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

Some of that may be true, but I am getting rather tired of the effort to terrorize the public about this problem.  I don't know what the agenda is, but it is becoming very noticeable that there may be a very sinister purpose to it.  So, I will just post this.  We are getting tired of the terror efforts.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n … e-n1171976
Quote:

"But I think it’s a reasonable conclusion that you will have immunity for the rest of this season."

A family member also told me that people who had Sars, are immune to the Coronavirus.

Last edited by Void (2020-05-22 18:52:08)


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#379 2020-05-22 19:17:25

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 18,576

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

With social distance safety warnings, Birx tempers Trump's reopening message

Calling to open up all churches is crazy without social distancing and safety measures, when churches that have did lose members to corona not to mention being burned to the ground for doing so....

Coronavirus cases in nation's capital reveal a tale of 2 cities

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#380 2020-05-22 19:56:37

Void
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Posts: 3,194

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

I think you might be fishing.....

But yes this is shaky ground.  I don't see how almost anyone will know precisely what to do.

Sadly we may need more time, to get a better view of evidence.

That unfortunately is all I may dare to say.

I have no malice in my heart.


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#381 2020-05-22 20:06:34

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 18,576

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

Coronavirus patients who took hydroxychloroquine had higher risk of death, study shows, An observational study of 15,000 COVID-19 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine

The study as a prophylactic is still being run for the drugs preventative ability as you need to test first to assure subjects are negative and then test while taking the drug and doing the work to prove you are subjected to the virus. Of wich its going to be months away before the collective data can say yes or no to a preventative protection.


Human trials of British coronavirus vaccine to reach 10,000

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#382 2020-05-22 21:53:39

RobertDyck
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From: Winnipeg, Canada
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Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

Canadian federal Parliament now meets only once per week. And that with greatly reduced members. They hold a virtual meeting over the internet twice per week. Official opposition wants full Parliament to meet 4 times per week, but Prime Minister claims that is reckless. This week he showed up in Parliament wearing a cloth mask. Cloth masks have been shown to filter out 56% of particles 0.02 micron size. So they aren't completely effective. N95 masks filter out 95%, but that's not what the Prime Minister wore. It's a stunt, to claim attending Parliament is dangerous. He's turning Canada into a dictatorship.

A cabinet minister declared all "assault style firearms" to be illegal. The decree banned a specific list of 1,500 models and variants of firearms. I don't object to the ban, but this has to be done via a law passed through Parliament. They didn't do that; it was just a decree.

Still wondering what this is really about?

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#383 2020-05-22 22:11:12

RobertDyck
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From: Winnipeg, Canada
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Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

SpaceNut wrote:

Coronavirus patients who took hydroxychloroquine had higher risk of death, study shows, An observational study of 15,000 COVID-19 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine

That was a report, not a study. Based on comparing charts of hospital patients. These patients were terminal, doctors desperate. This is definitely not randomized, not a double-blind study. Major bias. Furthermore, hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine (both derived from quinine) are anti-viral medications. Once the virus has done damage to lung tissues, an anti-viral cannot help. These have to be taken early.

Furthermore, a number of studies show a combination of zinc with those medications is highly effective. Did any of the patients in that report get zinc?

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#384 2020-05-23 16:35:04

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
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Posts: 18,576

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

Trump finishes Controversial Malaria Drug Course to combat virus

we will see if its got preventative capabilities and as a cure a 45% death rate versus not getting it across some 96,000 on 6 continents pretty much says its not safe to take and does not help.

Why asymptomatic not test is bad for all as Missouri hair stylist with coronavirus worked while symptomatic after working at a salon for eight days, exposed dozens of clients; Health officials were tracking down 91 people who were potentially exposed

So much for opening up without testing....

In Oklahoma pork-packing town, COVID stirs fear, faith and sorrow

A lunch time break
BB14velz.img?h=416&w=799&m=6&q=60&u=t&o=f&l=f&x=2525&y=1161

The scene of going into work with testing check in as social distance is used
BB14velF.img?h=416&w=799&m=6&q=60&u=t&o=f&l=f

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#385 2020-05-23 19:15:31

Void
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Registered: 2011-12-29
Posts: 3,194

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

I might hope that this will be studied, and eventually understood.

It looks like a key issue with the Coronavirus.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01403-8
Quote:

Coronavirus blood-clot mystery intensifies
Research begins to pick apart the mechanisms behind a deadly COVID-19 complication.

I prefer the hope of measuring something to running in fear from it.

If I understand the situation, Coronavirus, can be recovered from by the majority of people.  While it is probably preferred to get Vaccines, anti-viral medications, and immune system quieting methods in that order of preference, it seems to me that it is the situation where the immune system becomes frantic, and also blood clots form, where the largest path to death occurs.

Of course that assertion is subject to modification, as more information may become available.

But I am becoming more hopeful because it appears that methods of better defining/measuring the path to death are being approached.  That will suggest that with understanding, interventions to change that paths end, may be invented/discovered.

This Coronavirus seems to be a demented virus.  It is totally stupid to kill the host.  That is unless the future of it would be many dead bodies unburied, where flies could land on dying/dead corpses, and then transfer it the well people.  So, unless there would be a total social breakdown, this virus seems to me to be un-adaptive.

It does seem to be appropriate for a totally broken world.  We don't want that world.

------

And interesting idea.  The corpses of the previous host animal may not be buried, and indeed something like flies could jump between the dead and living of the previous host animal, (If that is where it came from).  So, in that case the virus may not be demented.  It is just not completely adaptive to humans.  Something to think about.

Last edited by Void (2020-05-23 19:30:19)


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#386 2020-05-24 09:03:47

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
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Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

For weeks, the United States has been the global epicenter, confirming more than 1.6 million cases, and the number of deaths nearing 100,000.

Seems that opening up will be tougher than we thought as Second hairstylist potentially exposed 56 clients to Covid-19, officials say

The case highlights the dangers of community spread in the United States as businesses reopen after weeks of restrictions to combat the spread of coronavirus.

The stylists and clients wore face coverings

Both stylists worked from the second week of May to Wednesday. The clients and the stylists all wore face coverings, the Health Department said. At the time, businesses like barbershops and hair salons were allowed to operate in the state.

"It is the hope of the department that because face coverings were worn throughout this exposure timeline, no additional cases will result," it added.

It will be days before trace will start to indicate exposed to getting the infection.

After Arkansas swim party, several coronavirus cases reported

The case described by the governor highlights the threats of community spread in the United States as cities and states continue relaxing social distancing measures and businesses reopen.

Follow safety and limit the spread..

Pandemic Swells in South America, as the U.S. Nears 100,000 Deaths

The Food and Drug Administration has barred the sale of nearly 30 coronavirus antibody tests because the manufacturers, many of them based overseas, failed to prove that they were accurate. Earlier this year, all of the manufacturers had notified the F.D.A. that they had validated the tests, but in one study scientists found that only three of 14 tests they examined gave consistently reliable results. A federal study also concluded that “a concerning number” of the tests, also known as serology tests, yielded invalid results.

Outbreak at Washington state food plant puts halt to reopening plan  to enter phase 2 of the state's reopening plan. According to Clark County Public Health, 38 workers at Firestone Pacific Foods in Vancouver have tested positive for COVID-19 so far.
One worker has been hospitalized. Food processing plants have emerged as hotspots for the coronavirus outbreak in several states.

The US doctors taking Trump’s lead on hydroxychloroquine – despite mixed results alternate universe of Covid-19 misinformation masquerading as science is proliferating among his supporters.

Remdesivir shortened recovery time from 15 days to 11 days in hospitalized patients. The preliminary trial of its coronavirus vaccine Massachusetts biotech company Moderna announced positive results from a small, tested in humans, appeared safe and stimulated antibody production in 45 study participants. Eight people had in further testing produced so-called neutralizing antibodies, which should prevent illness.

The rebellion for stay at home and waiting it out seems to be one where if its not in your home or close to you one does not see the disease and with that comes the cry that its fake but that is not the case as the infection spreads unseen for days and weeks before it shows its head with hospitalization.

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#387 2020-05-24 11:03:59

RobertDyck
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Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

Today we have 17 cases, none in hospital, none in intensive care. One new case Monday, before that was 6 days with no new cases. The case Monday was a worker at Walmart; some people are worried, Walmart is trying to down-play it. Friday there were two new cases, which appear to have caught it from the worker at Walmart.

The Premier expanded number of people who may gather in groups from 10 to 25 indoors, or 50 outdoors. He didn't allow indoor seating at restaurants. Again I have to point out he promised to allow indoor seating a restaurants effective Monday June 1st.

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#388 2020-05-24 19:03:41

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 18,576

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

I have not researched to see in this is a higher infection rate but the news is reporting 839 new virus cases reported in Texas as reopening continues

https://bing.com/covid/local/texas_unit … orm=COVD07
data is for yesterday

https://bing.com/covid/local/unitedstates?form=COVD07

NH numbers are in wild swing still
https://bing.com/covid/local/newhampshi … orm=COVD07

Today I saw a mix of people not wearing masks and not social distancing while being out for a good warm day of sun. Even heard a customer indicate that family was awaiting testing before starting to make daily calls..

We have more out breaks occurring 'A wake-up call': How the pandemic has Native Americans turning to the earth

Going back to self sufficiency of farming to over come food shortages. As the virus strikes out in there native nation.

We can not open the churches this way as More COVID-19 cases linked to California church services

This is not how we need to proceed when we have no vaccine and we infect so many... Missouri Mayor Laments 'No Way to Control' Crowded Pool Party Amid Pandemic

BB14zvQF.img?h=462&w=799&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f

You may have the right to not wear a mask but you do not have the right to give another a disease that could kill...

We also know that its slow to raise its ugly head with anywhere from a few days to what seems to be long after 2 weeks.
The infection and quite silence is a build up to what might be a big bang in the fall.
How summer could determine the pandemic’s future

We sure need to get outside but we need to do it safely and with respect to others.
BB14yCaz.img?h=533&w=799&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f

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#389 2020-05-25 17:09:14

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 18,576

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

California city sees COVID-19 outbreaks at 9 facilities, including food processing plants


Nearly 5,000 meat-packing workers at 115 facilities in 19 states have been infected with COVID-19, according to the Centers for Disease Control.

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#390 2020-05-26 19:31:32

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 18,576

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

Here is the side effect of not having a top down united front on rules as 'We all worry about it.' Grocery workers fear confrontations with shoppers over mask rules
Americans are unwilling to wear a mask, saying the face coverings are uncomfortable or impinge upon their civil liberties

BB14Dil5.img?h=504&w=799&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=1800&y=642

Earlier this month, a Target security guard in Los Angeles broke his arm in a fight with two men being escorted from the store for allegedly not wearing masks.

A man in Holly, Michigan was arrested and charged with assault for allegedly wiping his face on a Dollar Tree employee’s shirt on May 2 after being told he needed to wear a mask in the store.

Some of these confrontations have turned deadly: In Flint, Michigan, four people were charged in connection to a fatal May 1 shooting of a dollar store security guard after an argument over mask rules.

On May 18, a man was arrested for attempted murder after opening fire on an Aurora, Colorado Waffle House employee who repeatedly turned him away for not wearing a mask

We have rules that say no shirt or shoes no service for these same places so what is the big deal. Of course the best message is

: 'We wear the mask not to protect yourself so much as to protect others,' says Republican governor

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#391 2020-05-26 20:25:10

louis
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From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 5,802

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

Face mask wearing is not part of our culture. Some bad actors want to make it part of our culture. Resist them. It's non-hygeinic and it is positively dangerous for people with lung conditions to wear them. Stay Free! smile


SpaceNut wrote:

Here is the side effect of not having a top down united front on rules as 'We all worry about it.' Grocery workers fear confrontations with shoppers over mask rules
Americans are unwilling to wear a mask, saying the face coverings are uncomfortable or impinge upon their civil liberties

http://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tena … 1800&y=642

Earlier this month, a Target security guard in Los Angeles broke his arm in a fight with two men being escorted from the store for allegedly not wearing masks.

A man in Holly, Michigan was arrested and charged with assault for allegedly wiping his face on a Dollar Tree employee’s shirt on May 2 after being told he needed to wear a mask in the store.

Some of these confrontations have turned deadly: In Flint, Michigan, four people were charged in connection to a fatal May 1 shooting of a dollar store security guard after an argument over mask rules.

On May 18, a man was arrested for attempted murder after opening fire on an Aurora, Colorado Waffle House employee who repeatedly turned him away for not wearing a mask

We have rules that say no shirt or shoes no service for these same places so what is the big deal. Of course the best message is

: 'We wear the mask not to protect yourself so much as to protect others,' says Republican governor


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#392 2020-05-26 21:26:36

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
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Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

Thanks we are doing this all wrong
BB14qMM5.img?h=416&w=799&m=6&q=60&u=t&o=f&l=f

of course this must be the right one
4b4a1a8ef64c72ffed6a2850dd9cf86e--super-funny-too-funny.jpg

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#393 2020-05-27 09:14:34

Void
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Posts: 3,194

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

smile

This is the "STI-1499" again.  Thought someone might like to watch the video.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=ST … M%3DHDRSC3

Cross Fingers and Hope I guess.

I may not understand completely what is to be offered, but I might think that if you did start to think you were coming down with the Coronavirus, maybe after a test, you would be able to take the STI-1499, (And they have other antibodies), and it might shut down the process.  Then with further testing and tracing, maybe the stuff would shut down new infection hot spots.

Last edited by Void (2020-05-27 09:22:57)


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#394 2020-05-27 15:49:38

Void
Member
Registered: 2011-12-29
Posts: 3,194

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

Some good info, I think.....Lots of info on immune responses.....
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article … -news.html

This is a good read also.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05 … unity.html
Quote:

Happily, new research has yielded a theory that helps explain the pandemic’s most puzzling aspects — and just might allow us to curb the virus’s spread through means less onerous than total lockdowns.
Get unlimited access to Intelligencer and everything else New York
LEARN MORE »
All viruses thrive on large public events and individual “super-spreaders.” But the novel coronavirus appears to be unusually dependent on both. The media conversation about SARS-CoV-2 has popularized one key epidemiological variable — R, the average number of people an afflicted individual infects. Before social-distancing measures were enacted, the coronavirus had an R of about three. And yet, this average obscures the profound variation between individuals. Estimates vary, but multiple research teams believe that the typical COVID-19 patient does not infect a single other person, a reality that is concealed by the prolific transmission rates of so-called super-spreaders. In fact, according to a new study from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), about 10 percent of coronavirus patients are responsible for 80 percent of all new infections. This means that the coronavirus’s high R is potentially mitigated by its low k — a variable that describes how reliant a disease is on clusters of infection in order to spread. Viruses with a high k, such as the 1918 influenza, can spread diffusely through a large number of individuals. Those with a low k — such as the novel coronavirus’s close relatives SARS and MERS — cannot sustain themselves without super-spreaders. This was one reason why both of those coronaviruses burned out quickly and never recurred. Research from the University of Bern suggests that the coronavirus has a slightly higher k than SARS or MERS but one that is much lower than that of the Spanish flu.
This finding makes some of the random disparities in outcomes easier to understand. A virus with a low k value needs a bit of luck to get off the ground. If such a bug gets itself into the right human — say, one who’s too committed to choir practice to let a cold keep them home — it can gain a foothold in a community. If it infects a bunch of lonely homebodies, meanwhile, it will die out before making its presence felt (as the novel coronavirus ostensibly did in France last December). If SARS-CoV-2 has a k as low as the LSHTM study claims, then it would need to be introduced to a new country four separate times before securing a 50/50 chance of infecting enough people to sustain a prolonged outbreak.
Of course, the virus’s odds of landing on a super-spreader aren’t determined by luck alone. The fewer mass (indoor) gatherings a society holds, the fewer opportunities SARS-CoV-2 will have to hit pay dirt. This could explain while partial reopenings haven’t produced giant surges in cases as of yet; Georgians still aren’t generally attending large concerts, conferences, or sporting events. It’s possible, then, that a combination of banning large gatherings — including those convened on a daily basis at open-plan offices and meatpacking plants — and encouraging ubiquitous mask-wearing will prove sufficient to contain COVID-19. Which is to say: We may be able to enjoy many forms of “nonessential” commerce without sparking a surge caseloads (though we may need to eat a bit less meat).
2) It is possible that a significant number of people who’ve never been infected with the novel coronavirus already possess some immunity to it.
In last week’s roundup, we featured a study that found that a survivor of SARS possessed an antibody that ostensibly confers immunity to COVID-19. This was auspicious for our odds of developing an effective novel-coronavirus vaccine since an antibody capable of neutralizing viruses as distinct as SARS and the COVID-19 bug should be versatile enough to neutralize all mutated versions of the latter.
This said, even if every SARS survivor were immune to the novel coronavirus, it would make little immediate difference epidemiologically, as only an infinitesimal fraction of humans were ever infected with SARS.
But SARS and MERS weren’t the only forerunners of our present affliction. Several common colds are also coronaviruses. And if a significant percentage of people who’ve recovered from such colds possess cross-reactive immunity to SARS-CoV-2, then the population liable to contract COVID-19 — and spread the novel coronavirus — would be smaller than previously feared.
A recent study from the Center for Infectious Disease and Vaccine Research and the La Jolla Institute for Immunology suggests that this might be the case. Examining blood samples taken between 2015 and 2018 (when the novel coronavirus was still just a twinkle in Satan’s eye), researchers found that roughly 50 percent of these blood-givers possessed “SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells” — which is to say, their immune systems appeared capable of immediately recognizing and combating the novel coronavirus. Since none of these individuals could have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the most likely explanation for their possession of such T cells is previous exposure to a common-cold coronavirus.
Now, this was just a single study of blood samples. It remains unclear how prevalent these T cells actually are in the general population and how effective they truly are in combating COVID-19. But it’s at least possible that SARS-CoV-2 will suffer a fate not entirely dissimilar to the 2009 H1N1 swine flu, whose spread was undermined by the “immunological head start” humanity had derived from similar influenza strains.
3) Coronavirus patients cease to be infectious two weeks after developing symptoms.
This was already conventional wisdom. But a new study from Singapore fortifies the consensus by finding that 100 percent of its 73 observed coronavirus sufferers ceased to have a viable virus in their bodies 11 days after the onset of symptoms.
4) Scientists appear to have identified biomarkers that can predict whether a COVID-19 patient will develop severe illness ten days in advance.
Most people who contract the novel coronavirus do not develop serious illness. Even among demographically vulnerable populations, there are wide disparities in individual outcomes. If it were possible to drill down beneath age and common comorbidities to even more fine-grained predictors of COVID-19 vulnerability, medical and public-health officials would be better able to shield those most at-risk.
A recent study in the journal Nature Machine Intelligence identifies such predictors. Researchers analyzed 485 coronavirus patients in Wuhan, China, using machine-learning tools to isolate biological characteristics unique to the subset of patients who ultimately perished from COVID-19.
They found that three biological markers are so predictive of mortality, they can signal whether a COVID-19 patient will develop life-threatening illness with 90 percent accuracy more than ten days ahead of time. The three so-called biomarkers, all of which can be measured using a single drop of blood, were:
1) Elevated levels of the enzyme lactic dehydrogenase (LDH).
2) Low levels of lymphocytes (i.e., white blood cells).
3) High-sensitivity C-reactive proteins, which are indicative of respiratory inflammation.
By widely testing for these biomarkers, medical professionals could separate patients who will experience COVID-19 as a bad cold from those who will experience it as a mortal threat long before the distinction becomes apparent to the patients themselves. This would allow hospitals to better concentrate resources and thus, theoretically, reduce COVID-19’s overall fatality rate.
5) The coronavirus’s mutations don’t appear to have made it more infectious.
Viruses evolve constantly. And SARS-CoV-2 is no exception: According to researchers at University College London (UCL), the novel coronavirus has produced 273 mutations; of these, 31 have become prevalent.
One nightmare scenario for SARS-CoV-2  is that it will evolve into something even more lethal and infectious, as the 1918 influenza virus did before its devastating second wave. Fortunately, a new study from UCL indicates that none of the 31 prevalent mutations of the novel coronavirus are more virulent than the original brand.
6) The evidence that people who contract the coronavirus develop immunity-conferring antibodies is steadily growing.
Last week’s roundup included multiple studies indicating that COVID-19 survivors develop neutralizing antibodies and thus face no immediate risk of reinfection (how long such immunity lasts remains unclear). Now, a study of 160 French doctors and nurses who contracted mild cases of COVID-19 finds that 159 possessed neutralizing antibodies 41 days after showing symptoms. This is significant because many have feared that mild cases of COVID-19 might be insufficient to confer immunity.
7) The story is in the sewer; keep your ear to the grate.
Most of the metrics we have for assessing COVID-19 outbreaks are lagging indicators. Since it takes several days for patients to develop severe symptoms — and often weeks to display life-threatening ones — confirmed cases and death counts tell us more about how widely the virus was circulating in the recent past than how prevalent it will be in the near future.
But researchers at Yale University believe they’ve discovered a metric that can predict major municipal outbreaks a week in advance — the concentration of the coronavirus in a city’s sewers.

The bad news.
1) Herd immunity will take a lot more time and death to achieve than Sweden had hoped.
Sweden decided to make itself into Europe’s control group by forgoing formal lockdown orders or the closure of nonessential businesses. Instead, the Swedes opted for a “herd immunity” strategy to battling the novel coronavirus: By keeping its most vulnerable people isolated — while allowing healthy young people to circulate freely (and contract COVID-19 prolifically) — the nation would accelerate the process of collective immunization against the virus, thereby suffering less economic damage in the short run and fewer COVID-19 deaths in the long run than all those overreacting sucker countries.
Things aren’t working out as planned. The Swedish economy has suffered roughly as severe a downturn as that of Denmark. And in recent days, it’s had the highest per-capita coronavirus death rate in Europe.
Until last week, defenders of the Swedish strategy could still argue that it might pay off eventually: The policy was never intended to minimize coronavirus deaths in the immediate term, after all. And if keeping things open gets Sweden to herd immunity faster than other countries do, then the strategy could yield an aberrantly high fatality rate in the early months of the pandemic but an exceptionally low one over its full duration.
Unfortunately for Sweden — and for anyone hoping America’s reopenings will get us to herd immunity in short order — a recent study of residents in Stockholm found that just 7.3 percent of people in the Swedish city possessed COVID-19 antibodies in late April.
As mentioned above, it is possible that cross-reactive immunity from the common cold could accelerate the achievement of effective herd immunity. But that remains a hypothetical. Meanwhile, multiple studies have now indicated that if herd immunity can only be won through 60 to 70 percent of a population contracting the novel coronavirus, then the path to such a resolution will be far longer and deadlier than many had hoped.
2) If Americans return to the office this summer, they could accelerate COVID’s spread; if they stay home, they could plunge whole cities into darkness.
Some hope that summer will provide America with the comprehensive COVID-19 containment plan the Trump administration hasn’t. But while there’s evidence that the virus isn’t a huge fan of heat and ultraviolet light, the warming weather may do less to inhibit COVID-19’s spread than the growing use of air conditioners does to facilitate it.
Researchers from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention discovered that 10 people from three different families had contracted COVID-19 after all had dined at the same restaurant. After conducting a thorough investigation and study of their cases, the team concluded that an AC unit in the eatery had concentrated its blast of air on an infected diner, blowing the unwitting super-spreader’s viral droplets across three adjacent tables, thereby sickening the other families. As New York’s Justin Davidson reports, this study is indicative of the broader epidemiological hazard posed by poorly ventilated AC systems in densely occupied public buildings.
For this reason, many firms will hesitate to fully reopen their offices this summer. And yet, if America’s white-collar workers stay at home en masse — and each run their personal air conditioners all day long — then there will be dark times ahead. As the Daily Beast reports:
[T]he power infrastructure in residential areas is typically designed to accommodate heavy use in the early mornings and evenings, with hours to cool off during the day. Consumption patterns in these districts have already changed during the crisis, with demand spiking in the daytime. Overall usage is already up by an average of 7 percent in New York City apartments, and by 15 to 20 percent in homes in California.

As the summer heat peaks, and juice-sucking air conditioners remain on through the afternoon, the risk of failure in aged transformers and other equipment increases.

“The fact that Lower Manhattan is using less power is not going to help to deliver power to people in Queens, many of whom for health reasons may be intolerant to high temperatures, and whose buildings are connected to a very old transmission line with limited margins to carry extra power,” said [assistant professor at New York University’s Tandon School of Engineering Yury] Dvorkin. “What’s going to happen this summer, if we have stay-at-home orders, if we have consumption which the grid was not designed to accommodate, it will push the system to its limits.”
3) Even as COVID-19 cases decline overall, rates of infection among the young may be holding steady.
Washington has “bent the curve” about as well as any U.S. state. But while its new case count has plummeted since early April, among Washingtonians ages 0 to 19, there has been “no decline in cases,” according to a new study from the University of Washington. In other words, declines have been concentrated among the old and vulnerable. This is a desirable demographic disparity in the immediate term. But since the young are less likely to become ill from the coronavirus — and thus less likely to ever get tested — the plateau in confirmed cases among young people may be the tip of a larger iceberg of youthful infection. Further, since the young tend to have close contacts with a wider pool of people than the elderly — and are more likely to carry the virus asymptomatically — the fact that cases are disproportionately concentrated among the young may heighten the probability that a new wave of infection emerges.
4) In the developing world, young people are dying from COVID-19 at unprecedented rates.
In wealthy countries, COVID-19 deaths have been overwhelmingly concentrated among the old. But as the novel coronavirus gains ground in less prosperous places, fatality rates are rising among the young. As the Washington Post reports:
In Brazil, 15 percent of deaths have been people under 50 — a rate more than 10 times greater than in Italy or Spain. In Mexico, the trend is even more stark: Nearly one-fourth of the dead have been between 25 and 49. In India, officials reported this month that nearly half of the dead were younger than 60. In Rio de Janeiro state, more than two-thirds of hospitalizations are for people younger than 49.
At present, this alarming trend appears more attributable to grotesque international inequalities than to any viral mutation: Due to high levels of extreme poverty and underfunded health systems, many young people who would recover from COVID-19 with proper medical care are dying in the developing world without it.
In its first months, the pandemic focused its fury on the parts of the world best prepared to contain it. If SARS-CoV-2 becomes more pervasive in poor countries, its fatality rate could surge. (And at present, the wealthy world is giving every indication that any coronavirus vaccine will go first to nations with the greatest means, not those with the greatest need.)
5)  Trump’s favorite coronavirus treatment appears to make coronavirus patients more likely to die from their illness.
The U.S. president has so much faith in hydroxychloroquine as a panacea for coronavirus, he not only recommended its use over the objections of government scientists but also started taking it himself as a prophylactic against COVID-19 (even though there is no scientific basis for believing that the anti-malarial drug prevents infection from the coronavirus).
Unfortunately, a new study of 96,000 coronavirus patients across six continents found that COVID-19 sufferers who were treated with hydroxychloroquine died at higher rates than those who were spared Dr. Trump’s miracle tonic.
6) Even as America reopens, half of its states have uncontrolled coronavirus spread.
A study from the Imperial College of London suggests that 24 U.S. states have an R higher than one — meaning that, on average, every person infected with the novel coronavirus gives the bug to at least one other person.
Meanwhile, a separate, peer-reviewed study published in Health Affairs indicates that areas of the U.S. that refused to impose social-distancing orders saw 35 times greater spread of the novel coronavirus than those that did implement such orders.
Neither of these findings bodes well for America’s nascent reopening.
7) On a global level, the daily count of new coronavirus infections is as high as it’s ever been.
Worldwide, the number of new, confirmed coronavirus cases is growing by about 100,000 a day, which is the highest sustained rate of new infections we’ve seen since the pandemic began.
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Supposedly....

If you can keep the “super-spreaders” from large crowds, this virus may not spread very well.

Possibly if you ever had a coronavirus, cold or more serious thing like sars or mers, you may have some immunity to the New Coronavirus.

We will see lots of info.

Sub-quote:

A recent study from the Center for Infectious Disease and Vaccine Research and the La Jolla Institute for Immunology suggests that this might be the case. Examining blood samples taken between 2015 and 2018 (when the novel coronavirus was still just a twinkle in Satan’s eye), researchers found that roughly 50 percent of these blood-givers possessed “SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells” — which is to say, their immune systems appeared capable of immediately recognizing and combating the novel coronavirus. Since none of these individuals could have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the most likely explanation for their possession of such T cells is previous exposure to a common-cold coronavirus.

I hope that's true.  Maybe those are some of the asymptomatic people.

Last edited by Void (2020-05-27 16:14:46)


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#395 2020-05-27 18:45:45

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 18,576

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

Life would be ok at least knowing that some sort of immunity can be possible but the numbers for not seeing another blast from this is quite possible so long as we do not change our behavior in travel when sick, continuing to work when sick and not thinking about others when we are sick with regards to how we should behavior in order to slow and protect others from the spread of the virus.

BB14tuDq.img?h=450&w=799&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f

Masks seem to be working to fight the virus, even as some refuse them and US deaths near 100,000 where it's probably a 50% protection against transmission. Americans are at odds over whether it's necessary to keep taking protective measures, including wearing a face covering.

The number of US deaths forecast by August has shifted to 132,000 -- 11,000 fewer than projected a week ago -- according to the IHME's model, one of more than a dozen highlighted by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Behavioral changes like wearing masks could be responsible for the reduction. At least 1,694,599 people in the US have been infected with the virus by Wednesday and 99,983 people have died, according to Johns Hopkins University.

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#396 2020-05-27 20:08:48

Void
Member
Registered: 2011-12-29
Posts: 3,194

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

I am more on board with your opinion than you might think.

However the economy has to be rescued, and we have only limited ability to make some people be as responsible as they should be.  Perhaps it will come to fines if there are serious hotspots.

This is slightly encouraging.
https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-s … all-2020-5
Quote:

Fauci says 2nd wave of COVID-19 is 'not inevitable' in the fall

In my opinion the situation is still evolving.  But some changes for a way out seem maybe possible.

In my post #393, STI-1499 possibly would be able to shut down an illness.  And I read that they are beginning to see markers in the ill, where they are thinking they can tell how serious an illness may become.  If there are treatments for those identified such as the hoped for one involving STI-1499, it may be within our grasp to seriously reduce the death rate, and also maybe damage from blood clots.  That could make a huge difference on what is practical and moral.

At that point we might dare to do a bit more like Sweden, but we should then prefer a vaccine for those who would like it.

But yes, for those who won't get with the program with masks and social distancing.  Some punishment.  But only to the degree that they are contributing to the large scale suffering of the human race.

In such a case or similar, perhaps Fauci will be right and the  second wave may not be so bad in the fall.  We can hope.

Last edited by Void (2020-05-27 20:26:42)


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#397 2020-05-27 21:19:00

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 18,576

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

A man that was put on a ventilator on the day he went to a NH ER was given a blood transfusion with antibodies in early April on deaths door and has survive 6 + weeks later in a very feeble condition today...

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#398 2020-05-27 22:00:05

RobertDyck
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From: Winnipeg, Canada
Registered: 2002-08-20
Posts: 5,934
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Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

Manitoba: 5th straight day without a single new case of COVID-19. Over the past 15 days (including today), one case Monday May 18, and two cases Friday May 22. Total number of active cases: 14, none in hospital. Total of 7 have died since COVID-19 hit Manitoba.

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#399 2020-05-27 22:05:59

Void
Member
Registered: 2011-12-29
Posts: 3,194

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

We can hope for better.

I hope things stay that good in Manitoba Robert.

Last edited by Void (2020-05-27 23:11:58)


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#400 2020-05-27 23:13:04

Void
Member
Registered: 2011-12-29
Posts: 3,194

Re: 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases

Spacenut Said:

A man that was put on a ventilator on the day he went to a NH ER was given a blood transfusion with antibodies in early April on deaths door and has survive 6 + weeks later in a very feeble condition today...

My understanding is that by the time you get put on a ventilator, your chances of making it ~18%-25%???

If I were treating the patient, I would want that patient to be properly tested.  As I said is apparently seeming to be true, that in some of the testing they can find markers that will indicate perhaps 10 days earlier???  if the patient is possibly going to end up in critical condition.

If that proves true, then the objective would be to focus on putting a virus stopper into that patient, before too much of the nasty simptoms showed up.

Here is a quote about it from post #394:
They found that three biological markers are so predictive of mortality, they can signal whether a COVID-19 patient will develop life-threatening illness with 90 percent accuracy more than ten days ahead of time. The three so-called biomarkers, all of which can be measured using a single drop of blood, were:
1) Elevated levels of the enzyme lactic dehydrogenase (LDH).
2) Low levels of lymphocytes (i.e., white blood cells).

STI-1499 antibody might help such a patient to avoid getting there (Mortality),  Of course the antibody(s) will need to be studied properly, but in the tests they did so far, supposedly it puts a complete stop to Coronavirus entering healthy cells.

Per this article, I am thinking that the best anti-bodies are somehow manufactured, and are not a blood plasma treatment.
https://bgr.com/2020/05/15/coronavirus- … d-19-cure/
I am still not 100% sure of that, but we are learning.
Quote:

One of the first brand new drugs made for COVID-19 therapy might be based on Sorrento’s STI-1499 antibody.
The antibody was 100% successful at stopping the novel coronavirus from infecting healthy cells in lab conditions.
Pending regulatory approval, the antibody drug could be used in the future as a standalone treatment or combined with other antibodies that can block the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

I am pretty sure that blood plasma transfusions, with antibodies is another thing.  I believe it was used for the "Spanish" Flu, but was spotty in results.  Maybe not always the best kind of antibodies???

I also suspect that better results will happen from a younger blood donner.
Young Blood Experiments:
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/y … er-adults/
The article indicates that something in a younger mouse, stimulated the old mouse stem cells, liver cells, etc.

It is going on in humans, but it looks like the FDA may be hammering on it at this time.  Of course treatments would not involve sewing two humans together.  I guess I will reserve judgment.  The FDA typically errs on the side of cautions.

More:
https://futurism.com/neoscope/fountain- … d-old-mice

The experts seem to be at differences with each other on Young Blood treatments.

cytokine-storm
https://www.breakthroughs.com/foundatio … too-strong
So the person on the Ventilator who did poorly may have needed a treatment, to quiet his immune system.
https://www.thestreet.com/phildavis/new … g-covid-19
Quote:

Drugs that break the cytokine storm
One strategy behind the treatments for COVID is, in part, based in part on breaking the vicious cycle of the “cytokine storm.” This can be done by using antibodies to block the primary mediators of the storm, like IL6, or its receptor, which is present on all cells of the body.
Inhibition of tumor necrosis factor can be achieved with FDA-approved antibody drugs like Remicade or Humira or with a soluble receptor such as Enbrel (originally developed by Bruce Beutler) which binds to tumor necrosis factor and prevents it from triggering inflammation. The global market for tumor necrosis factor inhibitors is US$22 billion.
Drugs that block various cytokines are now in clinical trials to test whether they are effective for stopping the deadly spiral in COVID-19.

After ventilators, there is a new machine that bypasses the lungs, and handles removal of CO2 and adding of Oxygen to the blood, I believe external to the body.  I think if you go on one of those, you have a 50/50 chance.


------
I will just add this also:  Very informative:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/up-to … spartanntp
Quote:

Up to 80% of COVID-19 Infections Are Asymptomatic, a New Case Report Says

So, looks like a learning curve.





Done

Last edited by Void (2020-05-28 00:16:18)


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