American Moon Base prediction... - tell me what you think

clark · 2003-05-30 05:50:22

More about the Chinese Space program and what it means to US interests. This article is lengthy, and there is too much to really quote.

http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/20 … t2-su3.htm

CHINA?S MANNED SPACE PROGRAM
Sun Tzu or Apollo Redux?

Joan Johnson-Freese

Dr. Johnson-Freese is the chair of the Naval War College?s National Security Decision Making Department. Since earning a doctorate at Kent State University, she has served as Chair, Transnational Issues at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, in Honolulu; taught at the Air War College at Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama; been a visiting fellow at the Institute of Space and Aeronautical Science in Sagamihara, Japan; and directed the Center for Space Policy and Law in Orlando, Florida. Her recent books and monographs include The Viability of U.S. Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Policy: Moving toward Space Control (2000), The Chinese Space Program: A Mystery within a Maze (1998), and Space, the Dormant Frontier: Changing the Paradigm for the 21st Century (1997). A summary of this article has appeared in YaleGlobal Online Magazine, in English and Chinese.

Nevertheless, the Chinese clearly have committed themselves to the goal of space development, at whatever rate funding permits; it will be factored into the precarious balancing act the Chinese regularly practice. China?s manned space program is about its determination to regain what it considers its deserved place in global, and by default regional, politics.

An interesting read...

Josh Cryer · 2003-05-30 20:23:16

I haven't read it (no time), but it sounds like the stuff I've been saying about China all along. I think that China is a sufficient enough distraction so that my bet is safe.

clark · 2003-06-01 12:14:14

And here I was thinking that China was enough of an impetus to asure my bet. :laugh:

clark · 2003-06-03 13:41:13

It looks like Rep. Dave Weldon, who serves on the Science Committe for the US house of represenatives has some interesting things to say about what America should be doing in regards to space policy...

However you feel about his opinion, I don't care, tell HIM at:

http://www.house.gov/weldon/

Here is a link to his full opinion piece first published in Roll Call ("The newspaper of Capital Hill" since 1955).

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=824

I am happy to say that the Department of Defense space budget has gone from a fiscal 2001 budget of $14.3 billion to a fiscal 2004 request of $20.4 billion and is projected to reach $28.6 billion in 2008. Around 18 months ago, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld designated the Air Force to be custodian for overall Defense Department space operations and development. I am concerned about a few programs that are under the Air Force not just because they are in Air Force control, but also because they need national attention.

I would hope we could accelerate the deployment of GPS-3. I am concerned that while we fail to deploy GPS-3, the European and Chinese efforts for their Galileo satellite navigation system will be encouraged and they will field this competing system. GPS is the world standard and provides us a measure of space control and dominance unmatched. To cede this would be tragic.

NASA has an innovative in-space nuclear propulsion and power-generation program called Prometheus. I think it can be beneficial to the Defense Department. In-space nuclear power generation and in-space nuclear propulsion are "must have" capabilities we will need to master before anyone else.

Space is the greatest strategic venue of all. The other major powers know it. Each of those powers is setting out to make sure they have total or at least some measure of space control and space power. As recently as April 15, Jacques Chirac stated for Europe, "the domination of space was a strategic challenge."
As of now, no other nation comes close to the level of space operations as the United States or the amount of funds spent on space. We must ensure this.

Those of us who care about retaining and expanding American strategic pre-eminence must start advocating a doctrine of American space power and control

Implementing a new doctrine of American space power and control would be the best for obviously our own interests and the interests of the world for freedom and commerce, as opposed to a European, Chinese or Russian space power and control regime. By this I mean having a free democratic, capitalistic society with undisputed movement and ability in space and to be able to deny space access to those who threaten world stability, that would best promote democracy and trade throughout the world. That is a role only America can fill.

. A dedicated national security doctrine of American space power and control and the trained professionals to execute on that doctrine is vitally important to our future economic and strategic power.

clark · 2003-06-04 09:29:33

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/milspace-03p.html

Space Is The Ultimate High Ground
by Staff Sgt. A.J. Bosker
for Air Force News Washington - Jun 04, 2003

Space is the ultimate high ground and gives American forces a tremendous advantage on the battlefield, according to the Air Force's director of space operations and integration at the Pentagon.
"We must dominate space," said Maj. Gen. Judd Blaisdell, "because it would be very difficult to conduct a war without our space assets and the capabilities they provide."

In the future, the general believes that the military's reliance on space, and the capabilities it provides, will only increase. Blue Force Tracker, a system in development, is designed to identify and track friendly air and ground forces, reducing fratricide incidents.
"This unparalleled knowledge of the battlefield will allow us to avoid collateral damage, wreak havoc on the enemy and (achieve) our objectives more quickly," Blaisdell said.
According to Blaisdell, space will not only help American forces win wars, but it may also help deter them.

Regardless of what the future holds, Blaisdell said he believes the responsibility for taking advantage of space will still rest on the shoulders of talented men and women.
"Education and the continuing development of a space cadre is important because we've barely scratched the surface on the capabilities that space can provide," he said. "In order to dominate space, we need people who understand the importance of space and the capabilities that it can provide."

clark · 2003-06-04 10:10:03

http://www.newscientist.com/hottopics/t … %20Stories

Rescue mission for European space industry
By Will Knight

The European Space Agency has pledged hundreds of millions of Euros to rejuvenate Europe's rocket industry and guarantee its independent access to space. Ministers from the 15-nation agency unanimously approved the rescue plan at a meeting in Paris, France, on Tuesday.

ESA's members have so far pledged more than half of the 314 million Euros needed to build a launch pad for the Soyuz in Kourou. Introducing the Soyuz launcher will add a medium capacity launcher to Europe's range of rockets, replacing the recently retired Ariane 4. Europe currently has the heavy lifting Ariane-5 and the smaller Vega rocket.
The ability to operate Soyuz rockets from Kourou would for the first time allow Europe to put people into space.
ESA is also asking its members to commit 960 million Euros to a project called the European Guaranteed Access to Space programme. The project aims to further bolstering the European rocket industry and would come into force between 2004 and 2009.

The ESA, China, and Russia will all have the capability to place men in orbit, independantly, in the very near future.

I've also read elsewhere that Russia and India are increasing their cooperation in space research.

In other news though, here are several links to testimony given by some of the big players for in-space propulsion (testimony given to US senate):

Byron K. Wood, The Boeing Company
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=9359

Frank Sietzen, President, Space Transportation Association,
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=9358

Larry Knauer, Pratt & Whitney,
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=9357

James H. Crocker, Lockheed Martin Space Systems
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=9356

If you don't want to go through them all, you might want to focus on Boeing, Lockheed, and Pratt and Whitney. These are the movers and shakers in the industry.

clark · 2003-06-04 10:28:17

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/mo … 30604.html

Lunar South Pole Landing Sites Studied
By Leonard David
Senior Space Writer
posted: 07:00 am ET
04 June 2003

NASA has taken the first tentative steps in rekindling agency interest in the Moon. As part of its New Frontiers spacecraft plans, NASA has requested proposals for a South Pole-Aitken (SPA) Basin Sample Return project.
Past robotic spacecraft orbiting the Moon have spotted what appear to be super-cold stashes of water ice. These reservoirs are seemingly tucked away in craters, hidden from the Sun's thawing rays. The Moon's South Pole is thought by many scientists to be loaded with tons of water ice. If available, this treasure trove resource could help support retTo do so, processing machines would convert the water ice into oxygen, drinkable water, and rocket fuel. By churning out these products, living off the Moon might more easily become a way of life for future explorers.

If given a go-ahead, a sample return craft may be hurled moonward before decade's end. It is a journey that only takes three days, unlike the six month, one-way missions to Mars that NASA is currently preparing for launch.
That mission could well set the stage for a more aggressive reconnection with Earth's Moon, first using advanced robots, followed by humans that go the lunar distance.

"My work is intended to help plan a necessary intermediate step, getting robotic rovers into the area to examine the ice. This is not an active mission, of course, but it could be one soon," Stooke concluded.

clark · 2003-06-05 10:52:56

http://www.californiaspaceauthority.org/pr030427.html

CSA Attends 40th Space Congress

Michael Van Scoy, a member of the CSA Board of Directors and Carl Williams, CSA's Senior Policy Director, attended the 40th Space Congress at the Cape (April 27 - May 2, 2003) where, among others, they heard from Sean O'Keefe, Administrator of NASA.

O'Keefe also spoke of the cooperation between NASA and the Air Force in the development of a Orbital Space Plane (OSP) and work on the next generation of launch vehicles. He repeated the oft spoken fact that current chemical propulsion will not allow us to travel to other planets in our solar system. He indicated that NASA is hard at work on nuclear propulsion in a program dubbed "Prometheus." Other NASA initiatives included increased research on addressing the effects of long duration flight including muscle degradation and bone loss. Chief among NASA's efforts is the issue of severe radiation danger that are now considered "show stoppers" for long duration flight and especially as humans approach certain solar system bodies. O'Keefe concluded with heavy emphasis on need for the education of the next generation of astronauts and pointed out that in spite of the Columbia tragedy, he has received more than 1300 applications for 3-6 slots reserved for educators.

Here is something to consider, why would O'Keefe talk about NASA's efforts around research into technologies and solutions that directly relate to long term human missions in space? ???

NASA working with the Airforce on the OSP is not much of a surprise, but if you look into the progress of Airforce RLV technology, you might notice that they are nearing the end of their "testing and development' cycle. X-37 and X-40 are also fairly well along, and these two X vehicles hold a great deal of promise for a future OSP.

It should also be noted that intitating the Apollo program resulted in the current generation of Engineer's and Scientists that the aerospace industry is so reliant on- there are increasing calls from industry, military, and government sectors for leadership to address the continuing shrinkage of the the aerospace workforce.

Most people agree that only another Apollo-like program can attract and revitilize interest in aerospace carrer's.

Josh Cryer · 2003-06-06 02:57:53

And here I was thinking that China was enough of an impetus to asure my bet.

Ahh, but if we're going to the moon...

clark · 2003-06-06 09:35:23

A point not to be ignored, I admit.

Yet, then I always end up encountering information like this:

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/mars-base-03e.html

Human Mission To Mars: The Second Aurora Working Meeting

The equipment to support a manned mission to Mars will be immense
Paris (ESA) Jun 04, 2003

Preliminary planning for this giant leap in space exploration is well underway as part of ESA's Aurora Programme, and some 60 members of industry, national space agencies and ESA came together on 14-15 May to receive a progress report on current activities and discuss the way forward.

"We are trying to get a clear idea of what will be required and what we can contribute to an international project to send humans to Mars," said Franco Ongaro, head of the Aurora Programme.
"In order to do this, we must investigate how far Europe's present day assets in human spaceflight can be advanced so that it can make important contributions to international exploration missions to the Moon and Mars in the decades to come."

Notice how they are focused on the Moon and Mars, nothing about LEO, GEO, or general space sciences.

Focusing on contributions towards an 'international' effort. ESA can't do it alone, indeed no one can, save NASA... and thats a maybe.

They're talking about this now. The seperate national space programs are converging. The neccessity of increasing capability and presence in space is becoming a major factor now.

Josh Cryer · 2003-06-07 22:25:54

Clark, I demand you articulate your Moon Base Prediction ideas in an article so that Adrian can post it on the front page of New Mars so that it doesn't look naked!

clark · 2003-06-09 10:10:59

I will work on something and submit it to Adrian for approval (I'll send it to you to proof read first ). If he feels it has merit, or is publishable, I will contribute it to the website.

Now, if I am doing this, you must do something as well for the website.

Fair is fair.

slavvy · 2003-06-19 07:43:03

Pardon my innocence: it surely doesn't matter who settles Moon, Mars and beyond?
Americans, Chinese, Russians, Swedes or Arabs, they all have my blessings as long as they really do it. The rest of humanity will follow. However, I certainly do hope that Chinese will be the future space food standard...

Cheers, Slavvy

Echus_Chasma · 2003-06-19 23:55:30

Pardon my innocence: it surely doesn't matter who settles Moon, Mars and beyond?
Americans, Chinese, Russians, Swedes or Arabs, they all have my blessings as long as they really do it. The rest of humanity will follow. However, I certainly do hope that Chinese will be the future space food standard...
Cheers, Slavvy

G'day Slavvy,
I suppose it does matter because who ever controls space controls the world and the future. I can't remember who said it but someone said something to the effect of "Like the English who colonised America, the peole who colonise Mars will be the 'top-dogs' for the next 1000 years."

Shaun Barrett · 2003-06-20 01:37:12

Ein andere 'Tausendjahriges Reich', ja?!!!
Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Fuhrer!!
Heil, Mr. President!!

Beware of thousand-year political predictions. History vindicates those who say that even a week is a long time in politics!
:;):

Josh Cryer · 2003-06-20 17:49:18

Shaun, I find your latest signature quite amusing, given the stereotype that everyone in Hollywood is liberal. Who better than to fantasize about than the liberals in Hollywood? I mean, my goodness!

I just read something by P. J. O'Rourke. At first I thought he was just a conservative comedian (given that quote, at least). But after reading one of the first hits on Google, all I have ascertained is that he's no different than most pundits who have for quite awhile obsessed over the Clintons.

Now that is funny.

Your signature is quoted below to leave its memory here (since when one changes their signature, others may miss the context of my post):

I have often been called a Nazi, and although it is unfair, I don't let it bother me. I don't let it bother me for one simple reason. No-one has EVER had a fantasy about being tied to a bed and sexually ravished by someone dressed as a liberal. P. J. O'Rourke. 1992

Shaun Barrett · 2003-06-20 19:29:20

I'm glad it amused you, Josh!

As it happens, I have no knowledge at all of Mr. O'Rourke's politics or any of his work. I just saw the quote and it tickled my sense of humour.

Josh Cryer · 2003-06-20 19:41:41

Did it amuse you for the same reasons it did me (ie, that it's a largely invalid generalization)?

Man. Ahem, I've had some wack dreams about liberals... but I seriously digress.

clark, I meant to respond to you before, that sure, I'd be willing to write up a NewMars article, too. It's just that lately, I haven't had much time on my hands. I may be quitting my job soon, so that might change. I think a majority of users don't actually travel to the NewMars site, but it don't matter, really. Someone would read it.

clark · 2003-06-24 09:26:56

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/milspace-03r.html

Brig Gen Darnell Assumes Command Of Space Warfare Center
Peterson AFB - Jun 22, 2003

Gen. Lance Lord, commander of Air Force Space Command, presided over the ceremony

As commander of the SWC, located at Schriever, Darnell will be responsible for designing and testing methods that enable war fighters to make full use of space-based assets.
"Today we are fortunate to have somebody of high standards and high performance to take the reins of the Space Warfare Center," said Lord. "The challenges are many, especially as we move through space integration to forging space dominance."

clark · 2003-06-24 09:32:50

More about the EU space policy, and it's growing importance.

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=11905

How much money does Europe spend on Space?
ESA has a budget of ?3 billion per year, but this is only half of the annual expenditure in Europe of ?5.5-6 billion. The rest comes from investment by national agencies such as CNES, ASI, DLR, etc., which are made in addition to their ESA contributions. Under the Framework Programme the European Commission will spend about ?250 million on Space research.

The EU's CFSP (EU Common Foreign and Security Policy) will only be really credible if it is supported by an autonomous intelligence capability, which includes space assets. The European Advisory Group on Aerospace, made up of high-level personalities from the political and industrial world, has presented a document on the current situation in the aerospace field. This 'STAR 21' report, recommends that the Union develop a satellite-based defence and security capacity on a European scale.

clark · 2003-06-24 14:37:06

http://www.knoxstudio.com/shns/story.cf … -03&cat=AN

Zap! Air Force eyes Star Wars-style lasers
By SUE VORENBERG
Scripps Howard News Service
June 24, 2003

A new high energy laser weapon and F-16 flight simulator, designed by the Air Force Research Laboratory and the Theater Aerospace Command Control Simulation Facility at Kirtland Air Force Base, will let pilots test technology that could put the United States far ahead of its enemies.
The F-16 model is a smaller version of the airborne laser weapon already under development for use on a Boeing 747 for shooting down missiles. It could be ready for use in 2012, but before that happens, pilots will test the system in the simulator to see how useful it is and suggest ways it could be improved to help them in combat.

The high energy laser weighs about 5,000 pounds and can fire on targets up to 10 miles away - a short distance compared with the 40-mile reach of air-to-air missiles. If the pilots like the simulation, scientists at the research lab, which developed the technology, will try to make the weapon smaller and more powerful, so it can fire greater distances and take up less space on an F-16.

The system has been fully developed and tested, but it must be adapted for the much more advanced flight simulators in Arizona. Its developers will spend the next several months tweaking it to work on those systems and hope to finish late this year.

Interesting that they have a fully functional laser weapon, and are now considering applying the device to smaller vehicles such as the F-16.

If you can put it on an F-16, I wonder what else you could put it on...

Bill White · 2003-06-25 11:55:46

Fodder for this thread.

clark · 2003-06-25 12:11:10

From the link of the article that Bill posted

This aspiration to extend China?s influence to Earth?s nearest neighbor represents both a challenge and an opportunity for the United States and its allies. China, which has aspirations to become the second superpower, or even to supplant the United States as the sole superpower, seems to have hit upon expansion into the heavens as a means of achieving that goal. Jim Oberg, a former NASA engineer and space policy analyst, has coined the term ?space power.? Space power consists of a state?s ability to utilize space for economic, political, and military advantage. China understands that in the 21st century the state which is best able to acquire and exert space power will be most likely to be the greatest superpower of the future. Just as sea power was the key to super power status in the 18th and 19th centuries, and air power in the 20th century, space power is the key for such status in the new century.

Shaun Barrett · 2003-06-25 22:10:00

Josh wrote:-

Did it amuse you for the same reasons it did me (ie, that it's a largely invalid generalisation)?

Sorry it took a while to get back to you on this, Josh. I hadn't really analysed why it tickled me.
I'm not interested in being sexually dominated - and I honestly don't think I'm repressing any deep-seated desires in that direction which I don't consciously know about! But I understand that for various reasons some people do enjoy pain (to an extent) and humiliation - it does it for them.
Maybe that's why there are more fantasies about nazis imposing sexual domination than liberals. The average liberal isn't renowned for imposing his/her will on anything or anybody. A nazi barks orders ... a liberal forms a committee!

Power is sexy. Crisp military uniforms are sexy. There's something in the human psyche that just 'knows' that, however much our more rational higher brain centres tell us otherwise.
I can't remember a woman denying she finds a man in a military uniform sexy (or at least sexier than he would be in, say, jeans and a sweater). Women used to find Henry Kissinger sexy, for God's sake! .. Because he held such power. If Bill Clinton had been the janitor at the Whitehouse instead of the President, would Monika Lewinsky have gone to so much trouble to make him happy? .. I don't think so!

Josh, I think you've hit on something important in human thought processes here ( or perhaps a lack of thought processes! ).
In today's modern world, women reputedly admire SNAGs (Sensitive New Age Guys). But show me two guys: One tall, dark, lean and handsome in a white naval officer's uniform, the other short, pale, fat, bald, plain and carrying a diaper bag ... and I'll show you which one will attract women! I suppose I could describe a reverse situation for men.
Women know what they want in a lifetime partner, but it's often not what their hormones are telling them when they're shopping around.

At some primitive level - one which has gotten the human race into some terrible trouble over the millenia - nazis are sexy and liberals are boring.
But I hope we're not so crazy as to ever allow our fantasies to become realities again in this regard. As you probably know, I have a few problems with liberals but I have a whole helluva lot more problems with nazis!!

Sorry to have rambled on a bit, Josh, old pal!

Incidentally, whatever happened to Phobos and Byron? I'm really missing their comments in these pages.

Shaun Barrett · 2003-06-25 22:16:49

I've just realised how ridiculously off-topic my last post was here.
My apologies. I'll go away now!

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