Starship is Go...

louis · 2020-02-29 17:13:20

Seems an odd way to proceed - not having someone in charge of welding who knows what welding settings are required! Let's hope that the approach has been changed for SN2 - although I got the impression that was being built somewhat in parallel.

Oldfart1939 wrote:

The rupture of the tank on SN 1 was already attributed to using wrong settings on the welder. This test was simply a way of confirming the need for having welding equipment which is properly suited to task! This was undoubtedly a confirmatory test about the weld strength when done at incorrect power settings. Gotta keep on breaking stuff until "it don't break no more!"

SpaceNut · 2020-02-29 18:20:15

The next problem for Musk is that if these are not to scale full sized ships then he will learn this lesson all over again when he does build it to full size.
Going with an all young work force is exactly while you make use of thoses old fart as they have the art of doing in there heads and not on paper.

Grypd · 2020-03-01 07:07:29

As in all things a failure is just a learning experience, Now they simply look at what did work and then what failed and see what could fix it.

tahanson43206 · 2020-03-01 08:17:44

For Louis re #526

I think Elon hired the best people he could find, and gave them the freedom to fail.

There's a significant tradeoff between trying to bring someone who knows how to do something out of retirement, and just forging ahead to regain the knowledge that was not passed down.

Looking forward, I can see a potential to improve the capability of managers to find needed expertise more rapidly, in many fields of endeavor.

(th)

GW Johnson · 2020-03-01 11:33:11

From Tahanson43206 in post 529 just above:

"There's a significant tradeoff between trying to bring someone who knows how to do something out of retirement, and just forging ahead to regain the knowledge that was not passed down.

Looking forward, I can see a potential to improve the capability of managers to find needed expertise more rapidly, in many fields of endeavor."

That dances around the issues embodied in one of my favorite sayings:

"Rocket science ain't science. It's only about 40% science. It's 50% art, and 10% blind dumb luck. And that's in production work. In development work, the art and luck fractions are higher."

The "science" is the part that got written down, either as the contract-required documentation, or as part of routine internal reporting. The "art" is the knowledge never written down, but passed on from old hand to newbie one-on-one on-the-job. It was never written down primarily because no one wanted to pay for writing it down. But it is just as critical to success as the stuff that was written down, make no mistake about about that. "Blind dumb luck" is self-explanatory. And VERY, VERY real.

It all gets down to how the managers have decided they want to run the organization. You either value knowledge and experience, or you don't. Usually, the bulk of that knowledge and experience resides in folks over about age 45. But folks that old can no longer tolerate chronic overtime.

So if you don't value knowledge and experience (as evidenced by not hiring anybody over 40, precisely so you can work everybody chronic overtime), the price you pay is having to re-invent that knowledge and experience chronically. That doesn't directly impact your bottom line, but it does show up indirectly by doubling or tripling your development operating costs. If not more.

Looking at the actual working ranks (not the upper management tiers), Spacex hires no one over 40 years old. And THAT is precisely why they keep blowing up poorly-constructed cryo tanks.

GW

Last edited by GW Johnson (2020-03-01 11:33:54)

louis · 2020-03-01 20:02:48

GW - Interesting comments.

I always think with driving while 50% of the rules may be written down in the Highway Code (our driving rules manual in the UK), there is the other 50% of unwritten rules that you learn gradually as a driver...e.g. when to let someone into your lane, when to let someone in from a junction, when to keep your distance because someone is clearly under the influence or in an angry, irrational mood , how to read someone else's body language through the reflections on a windscreen at 50 feet away, how to read your own mood when you're driving etc etc.

I can't get over the welding thing...welding is a science and skill which has been practised for probably 200 years. Welding for rockets has been around for 90 years or more. Even I as a layman can see welding is vital to the whole rocket hull production. I just find it incredible that there can be failures in this area, especially after Space X have managed to put something as complex as Falcon Heavy 9 into orbit at least twice.

But, as you say, maybe a lot is down to locating the right people with the right experience.

GW Johnson wrote:

From Tahanson43206 in post 529 just above:
"There's a significant tradeoff between trying to bring someone who knows how to do something out of retirement, and just forging ahead to regain the knowledge that was not passed down.
Looking forward, I can see a potential to improve the capability of managers to find needed expertise more rapidly, in many fields of endeavor."
That dances around the issues embodied in one of my favorite sayings:
"Rocket science ain't science. It's only about 40% science. It's 50% art, and 10% blind dumb luck. And that's in production work. In development work, the art and luck fractions are higher."
The "science" is the part that got written down, either as the contract-required documentation, or as part of routine internal reporting. The "art" is the knowledge never written down, but passed on from old hand to newbie one-on-one on-the-job. It was never written down primarily because no one wanted to pay for writing it down. But it is just as critical to success as the stuff that was written down, make no mistake about about that. "Blind dumb luck" is self-explanatory. And VERY, VERY real.
It all gets down to how the managers have decided they want to run the organization. You either value knowledge and experience, or you don't. Usually, the bulk of that knowledge and experience resides in folks over about age 45. But folks that old can no longer tolerate chronic overtime.
So if you don't value knowledge and experience (as evidenced by not hiring anybody over 40, precisely so you can work everybody chronic overtime), the price you pay is having to re-invent that knowledge and experience chronically. That doesn't directly impact your bottom line, but it does show up indirectly by doubling or tripling your development operating costs. If not more.
Looking at the actual working ranks (not the upper management tiers), Spacex hires no one over 40 years old. And THAT is precisely why they keep blowing up poorly-constructed cryo tanks.
GW

louis · 2020-03-01 20:08:07

The SN1 is dead! Long live the SN2!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tod-fCzxiGI

louis · 2020-03-02 13:24:29

Elon is shrugging it off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYO-Mxn_XZU

Seems like the problem was with welds around the "puck" that take the force of the rocket engines...

SpaceNut · 2020-03-02 22:54:21

Bad news as article shows a Falcon 9 Space x Telsa contractor hit by Ransomware attack not good if they work on bfr and starship....

louis · 2020-03-03 06:30:15

Nice video of SN2 assembly, proceeding at a pace...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtwRkM8DSaY

Not sure that nose cone looks too great though...does it matter much? Is there anything in the nose cone at this stage?

louis · 2020-03-06 08:12:25

Boca Chica is beautifully busy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6v7_4C-1mo

louis · 2020-03-06 08:28:52

louis wrote:

Boca Chica is beautifully busy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6v7_4C-1mo

Maybe this time we'll get lucky
Maybe this time it'll fly!

louis · 2020-03-06 18:56:06

Interesting video from SpaceXcentric on progress with the Starship (amongst other stuff):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YU6bBAepNq0

Seems like no one had confidence in the thrust puck!

Elon is now camped out in Boca Chica - Tesla troubles behind him - and overseeing production.

20 Km flight before the end of spring...?

Musk confident that the Starship is the difficult part of the project - the SuperHeavy element is more straightforward and will follow on Starship development.

Hope to get to one a week Starship production by end of year before ramping up to 3 a week (150 per annum)!

Will be a production line under the "tent" structure.

I'm liking what I'm hearing and all I am hearing is that human settlement of Mars at the earliest possible date is the focus!

louis · 2020-03-09 11:44:29

Looks like we might have a successful SN2 cryo test!...normally more than one though, is that right?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlDBjHa0NkU

louis · 2020-03-16 19:30:03

Another great video from Felix - Starship progress still impressive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYXROIcXZsA

louis · 2020-03-17 20:39:23

Nice video from Curious Elephant reflecting on Starship development:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AP9eq0HEHtY

louis · 2020-03-18 08:05:27

Boca Chica is buzzing!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InOphSQV0Wk

GW Johnson · 2020-03-19 16:27:17

Interesting. The sheet-forming quality is a lot better on that article than the two previous. Not good enough yet, but way better than earlier.

They'll have a much easier time assembling these sections inside that new vehicle assembly building, out of the wind. Weld quality will improve inside out of the wind, too.

GW

louis · 2020-03-19 17:55:36

Another very good summary of progress on Starship:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFDD6iyqD48

I'm interested to see they are installing fin actuation batteries in the SN3.

louis · 2020-03-19 17:57:07

Interesting what you say about the weld quality in the wind...

Is that because of the physics or the human factor?

GW Johnson wrote:

Interesting. The sheet-forming quality is a lot better on that article than the two previous. Not good enough yet, but way better than earlier.
They'll have a much easier time assembling these sections inside that new vehicle assembly building, out of the wind. Weld quality will improve inside out of the wind, too.
GW

SpaceNut · 2020-03-19 19:16:24

Smooth flat surfaces perform better with the rise through earths thick atmosphere which reduces the heat that we can produce as a function of that rise. The wrinkled surface will cause a greater level of heating to happen. The fact that the sheets flex means they are not going to stand up to the forces of launch.

kbd512 · 2020-03-20 01:06:02

GW,

I agree. The metal forming looks much better now, so I assume they now have proper tooling for forming the gores / panels of the propellant tanks. The welds still look like pretty rough, though, even from a distance. I sincerely hope that thing holds together well enough for further testing to refine the concept. The engines and electronics look like very high quality stuff, typical of SpaceX hardware.

louis · 2020-03-20 07:27:42

I see NASA have ceased work on their lunar rocket programme owing to one case of Coronavirus.

Would Musk also have to shut down?

louis · 2020-03-20 17:57:20

Interesting video from SpaceXcentric:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LO6Cwd9K7NQ

Some info on design evolution of the Super-Heavy booster and Musk's response to Coronavirus crisis.

louis · 2020-03-22 19:52:40

Some lovely video from Boca Chica really giving you a sense of what is going on at the site...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwMDiMsscFo

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#526 2020-02-29 17:13:20

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