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#1 2019-12-15 21:56:43

From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 5,792

Treading water...

For me I am getting the feeling we are treading water a bit. The 2024 goal for a Mars human landing is likely gone.

But if we wait a while I think a 2026 landing date becomes eminently feasible. That's 7 years away and Space X are already well down the road to developing an effective Starship system.

So we will have to expect months and months possibly years of development before we get to full orbital flight with the Starship....

Yep, I know many of you warned me of that, but I really do think 2026 is a seriously achievable goal for humans on Mars now.

Last edited by louis (2019-12-15 21:57:26)

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#2 2019-12-15 22:43:11

From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 18,565

Re: Treading water...

Space is not easy and while the cost plus contracts are nearing there end its still means that if you are going to bank roll a new project on your own dime then you need a cash reserve for being able to afford the bills and not hope gimics will do that for you.
The table of time is flexible but space x needs to do what they are only on the front porch of and thats manned flight. Getting that up and running to set aside the funds will assure success as they came to close with Falcon to being bankrupt before they started.
All of which it is possible to over expend resource only to find you can not dig yourself out of the hole that has been dug.


#3 2019-12-16 00:09:45

Registered: 2016-11-26
Posts: 1,835

Re: Treading water...

Space is not easy. Space is not CHEAP! SpaceX will undoubtedly succeed but the recurrence of "Elon time," may again bite them on the backsides. I have another use for the once-flown Dragon 2 spacecraft; follow up on the Red Mars program using the recycled D2 instead of flying them as cargo vessels to ISS. There is a LOT that hasn't been adequately investigated regarding propulsive landings and some mods to the D2 capsules could conceivably land them on Mars, taking another step forward rather than marking time.


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