Where are all the adults? - Read this article

Bill White · 2003-05-14 09:09:49

John McKnight is often controversial and is again controversial in this spirited opinion piece yet this piece does capture much of my own sense of frustration with most space advocacy efforts. I fear he may be far more correct in his assessments than many are willing to admit.

Any other thoughts?

clark · 2003-05-14 09:35:31

We have to get up in the morning and go about the workaday tasks of ensuring interest in space - in real space deliverables, not orbital sky castles or a Red Eschaton - and cheap, safe, routine access to Earth orbit. Wishful thinking and pouty utopianism can only keep us from our adult responsibilities. If we need to feel that teen rush again, well, there's always rock & roll.

A lot of his points have merit. In order to achieve anything approaching what everyone envisions for life off of this planet, the focus needs to be on developing the means to safely, and cheaply, get us *into* space.

Yet here is where the point fails in my opinion- developing safe and cheap access to space requires a 'neccessity' for cheap and safe access to space. That is, cheap and safe access to space is not a neccessity unto itself, there needs to be a motivation to achieve ever cheaper, and ever safer, means to access space.

And that is what we see, that is the reality. Costs have come down slowly, but they have come down. Saftey has increased, reliability has increased (for the most part).

As usual, the dreamers are ahead of ability. Yet ultimetly, it is the dreams that guide tommorrows reality, and create an impetus for developing the ability.

Once sub-orbital is reached, how much harder is actual 'orbital'? Adn there in lies the key- because at 'orbital' we can start discussing and considering a permanent destination- it's no longer just a ride on the cannon-ball.

Once we realize some sort of permanence in orbit, suddenly all those economic arguments about developing the heavenly bodies start to make sense. Property becomes an issue.

Bill White · 2003-05-14 09:47:49

We have to get up in the morning and go about the workaday tasks of ensuring interest in space - in real space deliverables, not orbital sky castles or a Red Eschaton - and cheap, safe, routine access to Earth orbit. Wishful thinking and pouty utopianism can only keep us from our adult responsibilities. If we need to feel that teen rush again, well, there's always rock & roll.
A lot of his points have merit. In order to achieve anything approaching what everyone envisions for life off of this planet, the focus needs to be on developing the means to safely, and cheaply, get us *into* space.
Yet here is where the point fails in my opinion- developing safe and cheap access to space requires a 'neccessity' for cheap and safe access to space. That is, cheap and safe access to space is not a neccessity unto itself, there needs to be a motivation to achieve ever cheaper, and ever safer, means to access space.

And as I see it, it all about demand. Where is the demand for space access?

Build it and they will come? Or, generate sufficient demand to require that stuff gets built to allow low cost access to space? Once again, its all chickens and eggs.

(I know, clark, that bases on the moon would help assure US Space Command hegemony over LEO and the Chinese and the Russians - - and India! - - all know this also yet military space is not the "space access" most of us dream about. . .)

clark · 2003-05-14 09:54:11

And as I see it, it all about demand. Where is the demand for space access?

It's like every other luxary- lower the price enough, and the demand will explode. Why?

Right now, big corporations are driving the demand. Multi-millionare crack pots are the demand.

Yet who here wouldn't jump at the chance of space if the cost approached anywhere near an attainable amount?

(I know, clark, that bases on the moon would help assure US Space Command hegemony over LEO and the Chinese and the Russians - - and India! - - all know this also yet military space is not the "space access" most of us dream about. . .)

Nor is it my ideal.

Palomar · 2003-05-14 09:56:23

*Please disregard my previous post in this thread; I confused this article with a similar one I read yesterday, elsewhere.

Sorry.

--Cindy

P.S.: What's hampering space advocacy and progress? AIDS and other widespread, serious viruses. I'm serious.

clark · 2003-05-14 10:00:40

What's hampering space advocacy and progress? AIDS and other widespread, serious viruses.

How so?

Bill White · 2003-05-14 10:09:38

(I know, clark, that bases on the moon would help assure US Space Command hegemony over LEO and the Chinese and the Russians - - and India! - - all know this also yet military space is not the "space access" most of us dream about. . .)
Nor is it my ideal.

Acknowledged!

Yet, as you often point out, military space is happening today and that reality greatly affects everything else.

dickbill · 2003-05-14 10:14:47

(I know, clark, that bases on the moon would help assure US Space Command hegemony over LEO and the Chinese and the Russians - - and India! - - all know this also yet military space is not the "space access" most of us dream about. . .)

which indians are you talking about ?

clark · 2003-05-14 10:14:48

Yet, as you often point out, military space is happening today and that reality greatly affects everything else.

It affects the reality by creating a secure demand.

Part of this is about economic dominance as well. The US government wants the space industry to be one generation ahead of competitors. Part of this is related to the military becuase they want to rely more on the commercial sector for development and procurement.

They can do this by saying "We are going here and we need X capability, for X amount. Now build it."

The US military dosen't need to build a base on the moon- afterall, it's not a neccessary location when all is said and done. but it is a valubale location. And when the cost of space access does come down, the US wants to be in a position to dominant the future markets.

Palomar · 2003-05-14 10:21:18

What's hampering space advocacy and progress? AIDS and other widespread, serious viruses.
How so?

*It's a very strong impression I've had for quite some time, based on the thousands of medical/surgical and psychiatric reports I've transcribed over the years. I can't *prove* anything, and I admit that upfront.

The sexual impulse and desire for sexual gratification in we humans is, generally speaking, rather strong. When blocked (for whatever reason) or threatened, psychological consequences result (usually manifested by depression, anxiety, frustration, etc.). Depression and anxiety are on the upswing, in the U.S.A. at least. So is obesity. Why are so many Americans obese these days? Because they love Cheetos and powdered sugar doughnuts so much? Well, fast food is part of it, but I think the majority of it may stem from the fear of contracting AIDS (and other sexually transmitted diseases -- chlamydia is going like wildfire, and I bet most persons reading this message have never heard of it or maybe only very vaguely) and so they've found a new indulgence. This may sound oversimplistic, but it could have some warrant. I don't underestimate the power of thwarted sexual expression. However, some people don't let the risk of contracting AIDS or another STD stop them from expressing themselves; I reckon they're the people coming to the doctors I transcribe for, trying to get a diagnosis on that new genital lesion or discharge they didn't have before their current (and new) partner.

Add terrorism into the mix, now SARS, etc., etc., and...well, when the majority people are more afraid than optimistic, what's the prognosis for space exploration?

I could be wrong. Again, I admit this is simply an impression of mine and I can't back it up with statistics or any objective facts, etc.

--Cindy

Edit: By coincidence, after editing an error I'd made, I just now received a new report to transcribe...about a 34-year-old AIDS patient. Sad.

clark · 2003-05-14 10:29:31

Hmmm, and here I thought that "rockets" were the constructive expression of sexual repression of so many lonely engineer's...

Ah, to 'enter' space... ???

tim_perdue · 2003-05-14 11:22:35

I thought it was a good piece. It vaguely sounded like what I wrote in my op-ed about focusing on realistic goals first, like materials research and scramjets. (both are progressing and of keen interest to the military)

DARPA scramjet test:
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/scramjet-01a.html

Australian scramjet test:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/2160502.stm

NASA hyper-x
http://oea.larc.nasa.gov/PAIS/Hyper-X.html

Reagan's Orient Express:
http://www.fas.org/irp/mystery/nasp.htm

Bill White · 2003-05-14 11:26:33

(I know, clark, that bases on the moon would help assure US Space Command hegemony over LEO and the Chinese and the Russians - - and India! - - all know this also yet military space is not the "space access" most of us dream about. . .)
which indians are you talking about ?

These guys. . .

India may decide to send a robot sample return mission to Luna BEFORE the Chinese send a taikonaut. India and China are both great potential superpowers.

dickbill · 2003-05-14 11:37:52

which indians are you talking about ?
These guys. . .
India may decide to send a robot sample return mission to Luna BEFORE the Chinese send a taikonaut. India and China are both great potential superpowers.

I was sure it was the devilish indians, not ours (who are good), you should have told us !

Well, it's just a russian cryogenic technology on top of a Werner Von Braun liquid booster. I agree that it's impressive, but not enough to send anything on the moon or Mars.

Critter · 2003-05-14 20:31:01

There's a rebuttal by a Moon Society member at Rocketforge http://www.rocketforge.org/

Look for the "Smells like body odor" article.

Josh Cryer · 2003-05-15 16:29:30

Hmm, in my opinion, all McKnight is saying is ?No small time ventures are succeeding on any significant level right now and anyone speculating about such things are immature because they are unrealistic pipe dreams, all we can really do is sit back and wait to see what happens with the larger more realistic ventures.?

Hard to disagree with that, really. That's why I like the idea of Biosphere III.

dickbill · 2003-05-15 19:42:21

yes, we can dream Josh. Imagine the mars Rovers discover a piece of hardware, like a space probe, not russian, not american, not terran !
2 years later, you have men on Mars. I wish the "face" could be true.

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#1 2003-05-14 09:09:49

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#2 2003-05-14 09:35:31

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#3 2003-05-14 09:47:49

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#4 2003-05-14 09:54:11

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#5 2003-05-14 09:56:23

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#6 2003-05-14 10:00:40

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#7 2003-05-14 10:09:38

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#8 2003-05-14 10:14:47

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#9 2003-05-14 10:14:48

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#10 2003-05-14 10:21:18

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#11 2003-05-14 10:29:31

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#12 2003-05-14 11:22:35

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#13 2003-05-14 11:26:33

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#14 2003-05-14 11:37:52

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#15 2003-05-14 20:31:01

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#16 2003-05-15 16:29:30

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

#17 2003-05-15 19:42:21

Re: Where are all the adults? - Read this article

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