China has a $3.65 trillion war chest to counter US tariffs

EdwardHeisler · 2019-05-16 19:33:08

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/chi … d=OEMDHP17

Article content:

Beijing’s main defense against trade-war fallout this year is more likely to come from the finance ministry than the central bank, no matter what President Donald Trump says.
If tariffs begin to really hurt China’s growth this year, there’s plenty of direct fiscal firepower left to stoke the economy before the People’s Bank of China would have to cut interest rates, according to an analysis of government spending by Bloomberg. Data released Wednesday showed an across-the-board slowdown in April.
Central and local authorities in China have at least 25.1 trillion yuan ($3.65 trillion) unspent in their budgets this year, data compiled using official budget plans show. That’s two trillion yuan more than the ammunition China had in the same period last year -- and about equivalent to the entire annual output of Germany.
“Chinese leaders will be able to better utilize different kinds of policy tools than their U.S. counterparts if the trade war persists, and that’s where China’s confidence comes from,” said Serena Zhou, an economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd in Hong Kong. “From monetary policy and fiscal policy to the dominant role of the state-owned enterprises, China’s control on the economy is obviously stronger than the U.S.,” she said.
Indeed, PBOC Governor Yi Gang has spent the last year saying he wants to avoid a “flood” of stimulus, pushing back against expectations of benchmark interest-rate cuts as he seeks to curb market bubbles and keep a lid on debt growth.
That said, economists from Morgan Stanley and China International Capital Corporation to Macquarie Securities expect further cuts to the proportion of deposits banks are forced to lock away, as authorities look to keep the credit taps flowing.
The authorities have ramped up fiscal expenditure earlier this year than they usually do, with the most obvious front-loading coming in infrastructure-related areas such as transportation and environmental protection.
Even so, more than two thirds of the total “augmented” budget -- the general public budget, the government fund budget and special government bonds together -- remains unused.
Of course, merely increasing this year’s spending isn’t the limit of fiscal action if the trade war blows out and impacts economic growth significantly. Officials can support growth by selling more debt via local government financing vehicles and policy banks, though that begins to run counter to the goal of cleaning up debt.
“China may step up its pro-growth policies if the U.S. imposes additional tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods” and the preferable policy options include expansionary fiscal policy, such as tax and fee cuts, according to CICC economists.
A severe growth slowdown is likely to produce a “whatever it takes” moment for China’s policy makers. Otherwise, the Communist Party faces failure to meet its long-term growth target, just in time for its centenary in 2021.
Trump’s New Tariff Hit Threatens Xi’s 2020 Economic Growth Goal
For its part, the PBOC has also appeared to be leaning toward an easing bias since this month as trade tensions escalate.
Compared to the room for more fiscal stimulus, the PBOC has less space to maneuver and will likely stick to the “targeted approach” for now. Universal cuts to reserve-requirement ratios and interest rates are however on the table if the economy faces greater challenges, said Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of banking at Everbright Securities Co in Beijing.
The central bank has appeared to be more accommodative in open market operations since early May, adding liquidity to stabilize market sentiment. Monetary policy officials also sought to ease investors by saying it has ample policy room and tools to deal with any uncertainties.
“We can’t quantify the impact of the trade war on corporate sentiment, so the real influence may be larger” than what economist estimates suggest, which reinforces the case for more pro-growth policies, Hong-Kong-based Morgan Stanley economist Robin Xing said.
--With assistance from Shuqin Ding.

louis · 2019-05-17 04:52:45

It's got over a million of its citizens held in concentration camps where they are subjected to brainwashing and brutal treatment, including forced medication. That doesn't seem to concern you. The USA has no need of China. The whole China policy was a Nixon-Kissinger scam. We'll see if China has need of the USA.

EdwardHeisler wrote:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/chi … d=OEMDHP17

JoshNH4H · 2019-05-17 11:52:17

I went and had a look at the last time Edward Heisler posted outside of the free chat forum. It was 7 months ago, in October. The overwhelming number of his posts within the last year have been political posts in Not So Free Chat.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion, of course, but I've always found that our discussions of space are at a much higher level than our discussions of politics--the former being at a uniquely high level, as far as I can see, with the latter being generally unexceptional.

SpaceNut · 2019-05-17 19:41:32

Goggling Chinese concentration camps...past curent future and who is in them....none of which is in the starting topic article....

https://panampost.com/antonella-marty/2 … ing-about/

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/02/asia/chi … index.html
Thousands of Uyghur Muslims detained in Chinese 'political education' camps in China's restive far-western region of Xinjiang.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/ … 143252001/

Chinese officials used to only bulldoze mosques and force Muslim men to shave their beards. Now, they throw us in concentration camps.

This sounds more like extreme Nationalism and cultural control to keep china as china so as to not become the cutures of the western border....

louis · 2019-05-18 04:41:55

Good comment!

I'd much rather we stuck to space.

JoshNH4H wrote:

I went and had a look at the last time Edward Heisler posted outside of the free chat forum. It was 7 months ago, in October. The overwhelming number of his posts within the last year have been political posts in Not So Free Chat.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion, of course, but I've always found that our discussions of space are at a much higher level than our discussions of politics--the former being at a uniquely high level, as far as I can see, with the latter being generally unexceptional.

SpaceNut · 2019-05-18 08:05:00

But it is better to have it in here rather than crossing into our space topics area of the forum.

It also proves that we need to have that same isolation and control when we do have the ability to go beyond LEO.

We have been stable in LEO but will that remain once we are on the moon or mars let alone anywhere else that we may travel in the future.

It also proves that we as people sometimes are also very isolated from the reality that is happening all over this world even as small as it is when compared to where we are trying to go to....

SpaceNut · 2024-01-27 13:15:29

An overload of solar panels cut prices in half last year — but not in the US

Global solar panel prices have crashed by 50% as China has flooded the market with modules.
But US prices saw a much smaller decline, given barriers to its trade with China.
Instead, a jump in domestic demand has helped prices slide, though this may change in 2024.
A massive pileup of solar panels last year has halved the average price of the modules, as China's blowout manufacturing sent supply soaring.

Void · 2024-01-27 18:32:44

That is an interesting factor. Our overlords may actually know what they are after and why they are after it. I hope so.

It seems that China wants Starship and Tesla bot type technology.

The robots may cause even more deflation of manufactured products. That sounds like a bad thing but it is not.

To make the world more productive, is to make the average citizen wealthier.

However, this can be a problem for the royal thinkers, who have historically tried keep the surfs poor. We have some of them in this country now. They sort of think like democrat upper class. I think that for some of them hierarchy is required. That is not necessarily American as I understand it historically, but we may still have left over from the slave traders, and also immigrants that have come here and not assimilated well enough yet.

The bots are likely to make produced goods cheap and they may have problems with that reality.

How can you be royalty if you have not peasants?

Done

Last edited by Void (2024-01-27 18:38:00)

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#1 2019-05-16 19:33:08

China has a $3.65 trillion war chest to counter US tariffs

#2 2019-05-17 04:52:45

Re: China has a $3.65 trillion war chest to counter US tariffs

#3 2019-05-17 11:52:17

Re: China has a $3.65 trillion war chest to counter US tariffs

#4 2019-05-17 19:41:32

Re: China has a $3.65 trillion war chest to counter US tariffs

#5 2019-05-18 04:41:55

Re: China has a $3.65 trillion war chest to counter US tariffs

#6 2019-05-18 08:05:00

Re: China has a $3.65 trillion war chest to counter US tariffs

#7 2024-01-27 13:15:29

Re: China has a $3.65 trillion war chest to counter US tariffs

#8 2024-01-27 18:32:44

Re: China has a $3.65 trillion war chest to counter US tariffs

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