SpaceX is searching for BFR landing sites for early 2020s Mars mission

EdwardHeisler · 2018-07-31 21:01:45

SpaceX is searching for BFR landing sites for early 2020s Mars missions
By Eric Ralph
July 31, 2018
Teslarati

SpaceX Principal Mars Development Engineer Paul Wooster gave a surprise talk at a June 2018 meeting of the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group, where he provided a brief overview of SpaceX’s plans for the Red Planet, ranging from prospective landing sites for the company’s first missions there to the possibility of including significant secondary payloads on BFR and Falcon Heavy launches.

Wooster reiterated that SpaceX is still targeting the early 2020s for its first true BFR missions to Mars, perhaps less than five years from today. He further discussed prospective landing locations on the planet, emphasizing a need for a smooth landing site, easy access to on or near-surface water ice, and a preference for the warmer and more forgiving mid and low (equatorial) latitudes. A huge amount of work admittedly remains before the company before those missions are even remotely conceivable, especially missions with crew onboard.

If/when SpaceX successfully debuts its Crew Dragon spacecraft and demonstrates the ability to reliably and safely transport humans to and from orbit, a huge amount of the risk currently innate in any long-term interplanetary transport and colony creation will be definitively retired, transforming several of the major problems at hand from clean-slate tech development to optimizing and scaling up functional first-generation designs and hardware.

Crew Dragon’s official uncrewed demonstration debut (DM-1) and perhaps the crewed demonstration follow-on mission (DM-2) will likely have real launch dates announced later this week in an August 3 NASA press conference. Reliable sources have pegged those dates around October-December for DM-1 and 3-6 months later for DM-2

Nevertheless, SpaceX is demonstrably hard at work designing and building BFR‘s booster, spaceship, and tanker and is moving quickly in the direction of full-scale engineering and production. Much of that prototype manufacturing happens to be taking place in a temporary tent installed in a Port of Los Angeles parking lot near the end of 2017. According to one source engaged in the work there, SpaceX technicians and engineers have already begun rolling out preliminary materials and engineering samples of carbon composite structures and propellant tanks with the massive manufacturing tools (one known as a mandrel) temporarily housed inside.

Just a few miles away, the company is busy preparing a construction site for a permanent BFR factory on a plot of Port of Los Angeles land known as Berth 240. The smaller Phase 1 of that BFR factory is expected to be completed roughly a year after construction begins, placing the inauguration of the dedicated facility sometime around the middle of 2019. Suborbital launches of the massive rocket’s upper stage spaceship are expected in 2019, while orbital launches of BFR are NET 2020.

Read the full summary of Mr. Wooster’s presentation below.

“A walk-on presentation was given by Paul Wooster of SpaceX which highlighted the recent successful test of the Falcon Heavy launch vehicle with its potentially very large payload capacity (100 metric tons). Using the Falcon Heavy and development of an even larger Big Falcon Rocket (BFR) launcher are the basis of their ambitious plans for the future exploration and colonization of Mars, potentially launching missions to Mars within the early 2020s. SpaceX’s current landing site candidates for Mars were shown, having been chosen to provide access to near-surface ice, few landing site hazards (such as large rocks), and enough space for potentially growing a sizeable outpost. The ice sites are in high mid-latitudes and the search for lower latitude candidates, which are preferred, continues. Previously, MEPAG had been told that SpaceX could transport for-fee payloads to the Mars surface. In response to questions, Paul iterated that there is likely to be capacity for secondary payloads on either the Falcon Heavy or BFR launchers, although details remain to be negotiated once the launcher capabilities are firmly established.”

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-bfr-ma … site-2020/

louis · 2018-08-01 00:08:11

Thanks for pointing us in the direction of that very encouraging update.

I think the water issue is the key factor for Space X, in view of the requirement for propellant production. Given the use of PV power, the water source needs to be in the mid latitudes...so that creates some tension I think. I am not aware of any sites that are definitely proven to have exposed or near-exposed water ice in those latitudes - plus also have dust free, nearly flat landing options...

Space X's demands for a first landing site make site choice very challenging. Personally, I think they are better thinking in terms of regolith processing to produce the water, combined perhaps with atmospheric concentration of water vapour, which is an option in summer months.

EdwardHeisler · 2018-08-01 07:28:24

Where do you think SLS is heading, cancellation in the next year to two?

SpaceNut · 2018-08-01 17:34:05

Nasa will have congress putting up the shields to protect the workfare programs for there many states.

Dragon has near zero life support with about a week time frame is not going to cut it and the others are little better if not the same.

So what data is Musk using in the selection process as the car even if it have cameras are not going to get it done for surface views.

louis · 2018-08-30 05:19:27

Latest summary from Space X of their plans?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1Cz6vF4ONE

(Paul Wooster's address to Mars Society).

Re the slide on the landing area, the criteria they have are:

1. Safe - elevation, rocks, slope
2. Use of resources - accessibility, consistency, diversity
3. Daily life - temperature, dust, mobility

14:30 to 15:00 - very important statement that they are confident of ability to determine areas where there is ice in mid latitudes.

Q&A: BFR delivers at least 100 tonnes of useful payload, compared with Curiosity at 1 tonne.

At S Texas, focus on second stage, fully reusable vehicle - hot testing there.

BFR fully suited for Moon as well as Mars.

SpaceNut · 2018-08-30 18:14:56

Searched around for a transcript and here is what I found for the "Paul Wooster's address to Mars Society".

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comment … talk_mars/

Some of the slides: https://mobile.twitter.com/MaxLenormand … 0435815429

SpaceNut · 2018-08-30 18:48:26

Some of the Plenary Speakers. For a complete list of all presenters check out the convention schedule at the bottom link.

https://forums.teslarati.com/threads/pa … ion.13005/

http://www.marssociety.org/wp-content/u … ention.pdf

SpaceNut · 2018-08-31 17:21:12

http://www.marssociety.org/

The 21st Annual International Mars Society Convention

https://www.youtube.com/themarssociety

elderflower · 2018-09-02 04:26:33

They also need to consider the possibility that their rocket exhaust will blow away the regolith cover on a body of ice. Then they will be landing on ice which will, probably fairly quickly, sublime from underneath the vehicle and plastically deform under its landing feet. This might leave it glued to the ground by the time it needs to lift off. If the process is uneven it could end with a toppled vehicle.

Last edited by elderflower (2018-09-02 04:27:45)

SpaceNut · 2018-09-02 08:38:28

One reason for a unmanned landing to prepare the site for this unknown condition of sub surface ice, clearing of a boulder field and checking for undeground voids that would collapse under the massive BFR mass.

GW Johnson · 2018-09-02 10:27:10

Stable glacier ice must have a min of about half a meter of regolith cover. How stable that is against rocket blast removal depends upon precisely the type of regolith. Is it loose sand, loose dust, or is it rocky desert hardpan? How do you tell without putting some sort of probe on site? Ice itself is strong enough to support BFS. Ice mixed with rocks is very strong. If the cover is hardpan, the rocket blast won't remove most of it.

Is the ice really down there? What quality is it? How do you tell without putting a probe down on site that can drill meters deep?

What are the rock, pit, and uneven ground slope hazards? You need that answer at 5-10 cm resolution or thereabouts. How do you find out without putting a probe down on site?

You have to be dead certain of your answers, because you are betting lives on them. Inference from remote sensing is not certainty. Ground truth still makes liars out of remote sensing folks, although not as egregiously now, as half a century ago. But the disparity today is still way too much to bet lives on.

Somebody needs to send some small probes to these candidate sites to confirm conditions with certainty. Spacex has its hands full trying to do BFR/BFS while operating Falcon-9 and Falcon-Heavy. So, who exactly will step up to the plate and do their site recon missions for them, even if these are done with Spacex rockets? Names? I have seen none.

If you believe NASA will do it, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you!

GW

Last edited by GW Johnson (2018-09-02 10:31:32)

SpaceNut · 2018-09-02 12:08:38

My post here contains a transcript of part of the video.

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#1 2018-07-31 21:01:45

SpaceX is searching for BFR landing sites for early 2020s Mars mission

#2 2018-08-01 00:08:11

Re: SpaceX is searching for BFR landing sites for early 2020s Mars mission

#3 2018-08-01 07:28:24

Re: SpaceX is searching for BFR landing sites for early 2020s Mars mission

#4 2018-08-01 17:34:05

Re: SpaceX is searching for BFR landing sites for early 2020s Mars mission

#5 2018-08-30 05:19:27

Re: SpaceX is searching for BFR landing sites for early 2020s Mars mission

#6 2018-08-30 18:14:56

Re: SpaceX is searching for BFR landing sites for early 2020s Mars mission

#7 2018-08-30 18:48:26

Re: SpaceX is searching for BFR landing sites for early 2020s Mars mission

#8 2018-08-31 17:21:12

Re: SpaceX is searching for BFR landing sites for early 2020s Mars mission

#9 2018-09-02 04:26:33

Re: SpaceX is searching for BFR landing sites for early 2020s Mars mission

#10 2018-09-02 08:38:28

Re: SpaceX is searching for BFR landing sites for early 2020s Mars mission

#11 2018-09-02 10:27:10

Re: SpaceX is searching for BFR landing sites for early 2020s Mars mission

#12 2018-09-02 12:08:38

Re: SpaceX is searching for BFR landing sites for early 2020s Mars mission

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