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I think this may have been referenced before...but I seem to have forgotten about it, if it has...However, it is definitely worth another look.
https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ … .29013.emu
A paper by Musk on what he's been up to with Space X and what is planned...
The paper makes clear that the 2022/2024 combined First Mission will involve a total of six BFSs landing on Mars! (Two of them will carry humans.) From the paper:
"Then in 2024 we want to try to fly four ships—two cargo and two crew. The goal of the first mission is to find the best source of water, and for the second mission, the goal is to build the propellant plant. We should—particularly with six ships there—have plenty of landed mass to construct the propellant depot, which will consist of a large array of solar panels, and then everything necessary to mine and refine water, draw the CO2 out of the atmosphere, and then create and store deep cryo CH4 and O2."
Because the BFR is reusable I don't think that means they need another six rockets to refuel the Mars-bound craft - probably a couple more would suffice to refuel over several days.
So six ships with maybe a total of up to 800* tonnes of cargo delivered to Mars. It's gonna be 'uge, folks, it really is!
[* 150/150/150/150/100/100 - might be less I guess for reasons of packing logistics but still a big figure]
I was estimating on another thread that you could probably create an independent industrial/agricultural infrastructure that could replicate Earth's capability with just 2000 tonnes. So you would be well on the way to achieving that with just the first mission.
The pdf is easier to read:
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Boundless optimism. Just put a financial analysis to these plans, and unless there is significant outside capital infused--probably not going to happen in this timeframe. Maybe by 2030 or later.
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Musk spells it out:
"Getting back to the question of “How do we pay for this system?” This was really quite a profound—I would not call it a breakthrough but a realization—that if we can build a system that cannibalizes our own products, makes our own products redundant, then all of the resources, which are quite enormous, that are used for Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and Dragon can be applied to one system."
Concentrating everything on one rocket produces huge savings in terms of economies of scale. But the fact the one rocket serves several revenue streams is also key .
Boundless optimism. Just put a financial analysis to these plans, and unless there is significant outside capital infused--probably not going to happen in this timeframe. Maybe by 2030 or later.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Falcon is 3.7 m diameter and heavy has 3 of them for a total are of 32.15 m^2 with the BFR being 9m diameter for area of 63.62 m^2 for a scaling of falcon heavy to bfr of just under 2 times what falcon payloads of 53 tonnes making bfr just over 100 tonnes without any changes of fuel or engines for performance numbers. Thats 6 first stage cores strapped together with 2 second stages being sent to orbit with payload. They are shifting the hieght from 70 m to 106 m to allow for increased fuels in both that will allow for a greater payloads to orbit with the second stage being empty and needing refueling just sitting in orbit with its 150 tonne payload with no capability to land with propulsive capability.
Bfr seems to be a plane sub orbital capability for the second stage use and option on page 10 of link.
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