Space X Mission to Mars - Quarterly Review

louis · 2018-05-03 15:41:59

Now that Space X's Mission to Mars is making rapid progress, I thought it might be useful to have a quarterly review on key developments.

Here are some items that I've noticed have been revealed or clarified over the last three months:

1. The BFR factory location will be at Los Angeles Port. (However, there remains some ambiguity about where the prototype will be built.)

2. Musk has shared a photo of the tooling device that will be used to make carbon-fibre composites for the BFR, the spaceship (often referred to as the BFS). This appears to be a mandrel, or mould, around which carbon fibre is wound to create the main body of the BFS.

3. The BFS will be produced in three main types: cargo, spaceship, fuel replenishment.

4. We already knew that the BFR is being developed to serve a series of separate projects: the Mars Mission, orbital tourism, lunar tourism, ISS supply, satellite launches (including their own orbital internet system), and Earth-to-Earth (E2E) transport (competing with international airline routes). That's very important as it means the development costs are being spread across a range of revenue generating applications. Space X's COO, Gwynne Shotwell has made some bullish statements indicating E2E routes will be available within a decade. That could be important in terms of providing the revenue upfront to develop BFR.

Anything to add to that mini-review?

Having written the above, I'm struck by one thing: Space X doesn't yet have an official name for the Mars Mission (its equivalent of "Apollo") does it? Sceptics might say that's because they don't expect to get there any time soon. But I suspect this is all part of Musk's "space diplomacy". I think he has to tread carefully in relation to NASA, the US government, the UN and other great powers. He is probably waiting for the right moment - perhaps when they start recruiting candidates for the Mars pioneers.

Last edited by louis (2018-05-03 15:42:24)

kbd512 · 2018-05-03 16:40:12

Along with the rest of the world, Elon Musk doesn't need to even concern himself with what the UN thinks of what he's doing. As far as the US government is concerned, they don't really care what he does with his own money. If FAA and NASA say the rocket's safe to fly, then he has the only official blessing he needs to launch.

louis · 2018-05-03 17:06:40

I'm glad that Musk is a much better diplomat and realpolitik operator than you kbd! You have a number of power structures that could scupper Space X's mission:

1. US Congress

2. US President

3. UN (do you know there are committees on Mars missions?)

4. China

5. Russia

6. FAA

7. NASA

8. EPA

kbd512 wrote:

Along with the rest of the world, Elon Musk doesn't need to even concern himself with what the UN thinks of what he's doing. As far as the US government is concerned, they don't really care what he does with his own money. If FAA and NASA say the rocket's safe to fly, then he has the only official blessing he needs to launch.

kbd512 · 2018-05-03 20:13:55

Louis,

Believe whatever pleases you, but the only "scuppering" of American human space exploration activities will come from other Americans. We haven't asked for anyone else's permission to explore Mars because we don't need their permission, and neither does Mr. Musk.

GW Johnson · 2018-05-04 10:04:42

Kbd512 is right about the only "scuppering" of Musk's mission to be from other Americans. He has to make money to finance this, and to pay himself and his people, and selling stuff to the government as well as commercial customers is how he does that.

The government is an unusual customer, sort of a reverse monopoly in a way. You have to do it their way (no matter how wrong!!!) or you lose your contract. And, boy, do they ever do it wrong! A lot! Manned Dragon would have flown manned 2+ years ago if that were not a government contract.

However, all that being said, I would like to caution Musk that not all the homework to be done falls into the design/develop/test the BFR/BFS category.

So far, he's ignoring site recon/prep by a pathfinder. Just like with military and civilian ships on the ocean, you don't sail straight into the unknown potential harbor with the big ship, you send in the small boat first, to look around.

When Musk addresses that, then we all will know that he is ready to send BFR/BFS to Mars.

GW

Last edited by GW Johnson (2018-05-04 10:05:40)

louis · 2018-05-04 10:56:59

I accept it's much more likely that an American power centre would be the "scupperer" but if it became a major issue for Russia or China, then they could make their influence felt. Russia might withdraw from the ISS. China might declare it would withdraw from the Outer Space Treaty and claim territory on the Moon. It's more about what pressure China or Russia could apply to stop a Mars mission if it became a serious concern for them.

GW Johnson wrote:

Kbd512 is right about the only "scuppering" of Musk's mission to be from other Americans. He has to make money to finance this, and to pay himself and his people, and selling stuff to the government as well as commercial customers is how he does that.
The government is an unusual customer, sort of a reverse monopoly in a way. You have to do it their way (no matter how wrong!!!) or you lose your contract. And, boy, do they ever do it wrong! A lot! Manned Dragon would have flown manned 2+ years ago if that were not a government contract.
However, all that being said, I would like to caution Musk that not all the homework to be done falls into the design/develop/test the BFR/BFS category.
So far, he's ignoring site recon/prep by a pathfinder. Just like with military and civilian ships on the ocean, you don't sail straight into the unknown potential harbor with the big ship, you send in the small boat first, to look around.
When Musk addresses that, then we all will know that he is ready to send BFR/BFS to Mars.
GW

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#1 2018-05-03 15:41:59

Space X Mission to Mars - Quarterly Review

#2 2018-05-03 16:40:12

Re: Space X Mission to Mars - Quarterly Review

#3 2018-05-03 17:06:40

Re: Space X Mission to Mars - Quarterly Review

#4 2018-05-03 20:13:55

Re: Space X Mission to Mars - Quarterly Review

#5 2018-05-04 10:04:42

Re: Space X Mission to Mars - Quarterly Review

#6 2018-05-04 10:56:59

Re: Space X Mission to Mars - Quarterly Review

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