An Economic Model for a Mars Colony of 1000

louis · 2018-04-20 16:05:57

Another impressively detailed paper (though not so well translated into English) from the French Section of the Mars Society, dealing with how an economic model for the development of a community of 1000 on Mars within 20 years might look:

http://planete-mars.com/an-economic-mod … nd-people/

This has a lot of crossover with what I've proposed before. However I think there are some key elements missing:

1. The involvement of Universities in the colony's development. I think Universities will either individually or in groups want to put serious money into Mars research. Universities have trillions of dollars to invest in R&D. Currently this nearly all spent on Earth. They only have to channel a small percentage to Mars and that makes tens of billions of dollars available for R&D projects.

2. Commercial sponsorship. Commercial sponsorship will pump billions into Mars development - for the early missions, special exploration projects and ongoing sponsorship.

3. Production of luxury goods for export to Earth, e.g. Rolex watches incorporating Mars materials.

louis · 2018-04-20 17:38:10

You'd need a set of plans:

1. General Plan (population targets, broad economic development objectives).

2. Basic Resources Plan (energy, agriculture, mining, materials processing, importation of industrial infrastructure e.g. 3D printers).

3. Manufacturing Plan

4. Transportation Plan (Earth-Mars and intra-Mars)

5. Construction, Habitats and Life Support Plan

6. Finance and Investment Plan.

SpaceNut · 2018-04-20 17:43:45

Ignoring the first image...

The model takes into account the above data to characterize trade flows in goods and services between the different segments of residents (and the few personnel involved on Earth). These segments are:
1. paying guests (clients): tourists, long-term immigrants (a minority) and staff on duty (Paying Residents);
2. paying services providers, requested by all residents (Commercial Services Providers);
3. producers of materials (including food) and goods (Mars Materials & Goods Producers);
4. service providers directly paid by the Mars Operating Company, whom we could consider as “civil servants” (Paid Residents);
5. staff on Earth involved in the management of the colony (administrative, financial & industrial staff).

What I see here is the same issue that Nasa has now with the ISS for switching from government funded to a commercial venture where the existing property is transitioned to private hands. Then to private hands that are not on earth but are the residents of mars.

I see the length of the construction phase: 20 years being one that must start commercial in orcer to not be in the current ISS situation.

We considered, to be simple, three segments of people, paid on average as follows (including during the flights):
top segment : $ 35,000 / month
middle segment : $ 15,000 / month
lower segment : $ 9000 / month

The frame of 20 years also shows that people are paying for the time that they are to spend without regard to if they should want to stay. The cost means only the rich will be able to go and they will not be working.

louis · 2018-04-20 17:52:24

Elements in a Finance and Investment Plan should include establishing:

A Mars Currency
A Mars Central Bank
Mars Investment Programme
Mars Investment fund

SpaceNut · 2018-04-20 19:09:52

Thats the commercial private side of what needs to be done but thats not where we are starting since governement is at the helm. The first missions will not be private even if the rockets are bought from them its still a governement mission.

louis · 2018-04-20 19:30:25

I think they will be private - Space X - missions with US government blessing (important in relation to the Outer Space Treaty).

SpaceNut wrote:

Thats the commercial private side of what needs to be done but thats not where we are starting since governement is at the helm. The first missions will not be private even if the rockets are bought from them its still a governement mission.

Oldfart1939 · 2018-04-21 08:59:48

Uh...last time I looked at the "Trillions of Dollars Universities have for research," I couldn't figure out why then they were still charging tuition. If they are that well endowed, why do I keep getting requests from several Alumni Associations always telling me the University is in need of more money? It takes consortiums of Universities and National Governments to build things like the Giant Magellan Telescope and the 30 Meter Telescope, neither of which is totally funded.

Yes, universities have money, but not billions of dollars, which is what would be required for establishment of research stations on Mars.

Last edited by Oldfart1939 (2018-04-21 09:01:38)

SpaceNut · 2018-04-21 09:18:36

Lets say an investor in mars wanted to buy used cargo ship that are just sitting on mars as a first step to a commercial market. Now once these are gutted plus retrofited these could and can become a small greenhouse, research lab, a single habitat ect.. that is what I see as a leg towards personal ownership and a commercial industry.

louis · 2018-04-21 13:57:28

Possibly a little over the top in saying "trillions"...

http://theconversation.com/infographic- … ence-14069

The USA alone spends about 500 billion dollars on scientific research. About a third is government funded. I suspect a huge amount of that 500 billion dollars is going through universities one way or another. Also, research is more than just "scientific" research. There's probably quite a bit more invested in other disciplines. Globally, I think the scientific research budget looks to be around 1.5 trillion dollars...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c … t_spending

Anyway, we don't need trillions for Mars settlement...but we do need billions. All that's really required is that over a decade or two, universities start devoting some of their budgets to research on Mars or in relation to Mars (without stepping foot there necessarily). That is going to happen naturally in the big prestigious universities I would suggest, especially those with impressive departments of cosmology, astronomy, geology, materials science, engineering and so on. If, for the sake of argument, there's a worldwide pool of $750 billion dollars annually available for scientific research through universities and of that say one third could in some way be potentially connected to Mars, then if you could capture 1% of that pool for Mars, that would be £2.5 billion annually. I think that would be a reasonable target to aim for. A lot will depend on what the pioneers find fossil or other evidence of life, then there will I predict be a research "gold rush".

University research will also overlap with space agency research and activity projects. I think NASA, ESA, JAXA, ISA and others will all be prepared to hand over billions to a Mars Corporation in order to get themselves established on Mars.

Oldfart1939 wrote:

Uh...last time I looked at the "Trillions of Dollars Universities have for research," I couldn't figure out why then they were still charging tuition. If they are that well endowed, why do I keep getting requests from several Alumni Associations always telling me the University is in need of more money? It takes consortiums of Universities and National Governments to build things like the Giant Magellan Telescope and the 30 Meter Telescope, neither of which is totally funded.
Yes, universities have money, but not billions of dollars, which is what would be required for establishment of research stations on Mars.

New Mars Forums

Announcement

#1 2018-04-20 16:05:57

An Economic Model for a Mars Colony of 1000

#2 2018-04-20 17:38:10

Re: An Economic Model for a Mars Colony of 1000

#3 2018-04-20 17:43:45

Re: An Economic Model for a Mars Colony of 1000

#4 2018-04-20 17:52:24

Re: An Economic Model for a Mars Colony of 1000

#5 2018-04-20 19:09:52

Re: An Economic Model for a Mars Colony of 1000

#6 2018-04-20 19:30:25

Re: An Economic Model for a Mars Colony of 1000

#7 2018-04-21 08:59:48

Re: An Economic Model for a Mars Colony of 1000

#8 2018-04-21 09:18:36

Re: An Economic Model for a Mars Colony of 1000

#9 2018-04-21 13:57:28

Re: An Economic Model for a Mars Colony of 1000

Board footer