How did you cope?

Terraformer · 2018-03-11 13:34:37

Antius wrote:

I will leave on this parting note: I have serious doubts that we will ever get to Mars. The reason being that I believe that the global economy is now hitting serious limits to its resources, especially energy sources. These limits have been evident in the poor economic growth of western economies since the 1970s, the almost complete absence of growth over the past ten years, plummeting interest rates since 1980 and exploding inequality between the rich and wage earners. Globalisation was, more than anything else, an attempt to shift manufacturing from areas where resources had grown scarce, to areas where they were still abundant. China built its manufacturing industries on a base of cheap labour and cheap coal energy, which is now entering decline. Globally, debt is some 6 times greater than annual GDP. Over the next ten years, the global economy will suffer a significant contraction. Various excuses will be given by central bankers, but the underlying cause will be a decline in the volume and quality of fossil fuel sources that fuel all economic activity.

For the older posters on this forum in particular...

How did you cope when you realised you were very unlikely to ever go into space yourselves?

Void · 2018-03-11 15:08:49

First for Antius. I understand the feeling. Get over it. I usually can.

For Terraformer.

Some years ago I had a nerve pinch. After it I had lost almost all the strength in my right arm and quite a lot in my left arm.

When I went to bed I would wake up in agony about every two hours. I had to take therapy, and that issue along with sciatica.
Caused me to habitually go to the gym.

I am pretty much all the way better now, I can bench press 115 pounds sets of 8, 8, 8, 10. Well when you consider my age, and that I am not massive 147 lbs actually, and the damage I had, I have a lot to be grateful for.

Even now when I am recalling the pain I still feel it to a degree. So, after this post I will work to forget. Point is during that time to go to the gym and do other things, I was almost always on short sleep. Working overtime and such. Stress. My last few years in software and managing a database and client software for a maintenance organization for a conglomerate.

I'm retired now. At peace, and pain is only occasional and on a small scale. I really lucked out, but I also struggled to get this.

High school friends. One died from prostrate cancer. One died from congestive heart failure. I'm still here to puzzle about space things. Not a bad deal for me but my time will come as well.

Many people never experience agony until their death, maybe some just go out like a light.

Not so many get that much pain and then get rid of it.

I'm a happy little man.

Maybe a bit masochistic, as I keep coming to NewMars. A definition of insanity it is said is to keep doing the same thing and expect different results.

This is where I get my pain now. Everything else is great for now.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2018-03-11 15:18:01)

louis · 2018-03-11 18:16:49

I'd say - see my latest post below (or above) on the interview with Musk. He says the BFR will fly early next year! 2019... we are on course for Mars in 2024. Even if we slip a couple of years, I feel confident we will be there by the late 20s. Sadly this does make all our individual mission architectures a bit redundant! But it is going to be a stupendous event...we will be watching the equivalent of the neolithic revolution and the industrial revolution taking place in one landing.

Palomar7 · 2018-03-11 18:18:46

I never expected to go into space myself (personally).

It's been within the past 10 years that I've (very reluctantly) come to terms with perhaps never seeing people on Mars. There is still some hope, though, and I've easily got another 30 years.

But most of my hopes/dreams have seriously dwindled. It's been incredibly surprising (and disappointing!) to me how much "other/outside/unexpected" factors can come into play...can ruin stuff for you. Even if you gave "it" 100%, had good intentions, "played your cards right", etc. Very chagrining.

Last edited by Palomar7 (2018-03-11 18:19:52)

louis · 2018-03-11 18:31:39

Why are you saying that? Musk makes clear the BFR should fly next year (2019). Why would it take 30 years for him to get people to Mars?

Palomar7 wrote:

I never expected to go into space myself (personally).
It's been within the past 10 years that I've (very reluctantly) come to terms with perhaps never seeing people on Mars. There is still some hope, though, and I've easily got another 30 years.
But most of my hopes/dreams have seriously dwindled. It's been incredibly surprising (and disappointing!) to me how much "other/outside/unexpected" factors can come into play...can ruin stuff for you. Even if you gave "it" 100%, had good intentions, "played your cards right", etc. Very chagrining.

SpaceNut · 2018-03-11 19:14:32

Another miss reading of english... Polomar7 thinks will be still alive when it happens if not past 30 years from now.....
Not sure about the flight schedule for BFR but I do not think the transport for moon or mars will be even if the commuter version from here to parts 8 hours or more away will be....
As for coping with pain just grin and put on a happy face. Back pain does suck and so does the scatic nerve when it gets pinched....As for getting whiplash in the upper part of the back in between the shoulders off to one side, ya I am not the same from that point on but getting better after nearly a decade.

clark · 2018-03-12 10:37:45

Human to Mars still no earlier than 2030's.

Space access for the general population; 2080's, at the earliest. Y'all need to make peace with it if you haven't.

Void · 2018-03-12 11:32:41

Clark said:

Human to Mars still no earlier than 2030's.
Space access for the general population; 2080's, at the earliest. Y'all need to make peace with it if you haven't.

Good advice especially for those of us who are already seniors.

However Terraformer, I did introduce the board to:

Aubrey De Grey
Liz Parrish
David Sinclair
Bill Andrews

And there are others, for instance George Church. (Really an interesting guy. Wants to revive pseudo Mammoths.)
http://www.lifeextension.com/Magazine/2 … ol/Page-01

These people are all working on Health Span extension, and a consequence of that could be life span extension. That is first not getting old until the very end of your life, and in the case of Aubrey De Grey a chance that you could live to be 1000, if you are currently young.

In my case that is a Ghost of a chance.

In your case there are real chances I think. Not a guarantee however. Should you live to be 1000 (On average). Then your form of death will likely be a crash in a BFR, faulty spacesuit, murder, eaten by sharks, hit by a bus/hyperloop.

Not old age though, most likely. But as I said success of these scientists in their objectives are not guaranteed. It may be that they will encounter problems that will take an extremely long time to overcome.

louis · 2018-03-12 13:40:38

So you're saying Musk is basically giving a dishonest account?

Founded in 2002, Space X went from nothing to the first private rocket to space within six years. They went from that to a lunar-capable rocket in the next ten. The BFR has been on the drawing board for years now, and Space X have been perfecting a lot of the elements that will go into it.

I see no reason why it won't fly next year.

Yes, there's a lot more involved in Mars colonisation than the rocket, but I think people will be surprised by how much work has already gone into planning for that.

clark wrote:

Human to Mars still no earlier than 2030's.
Space access for the general population; 2080's, at the earliest. Y'all need to make peace with it if you haven't.

clark · 2018-03-12 14:29:36

Musk is giving an optimistic account.

Rockets take time to build. Capital funding does not happen overnight. Orbital mechanics afford only so many windows. Any human mission requires a minimum of two (successful) pre-cursor missions.

It's not a prediction, it is logistics.

Terraformer · 2018-03-12 14:51:33

Well, it *did* take 8 years to go from JFK's speech to Neil Armstrong's words. Whilst they had to develop a lot of stuff from scratch to do it, they also had a lot more resources available to do it with. Assuming everything goes well for him over the next decade (so, no economic depression wiping out his companies), I think Musk could achieve a flags and footprints Mars mission before 2030.

How much of Musk's wealth is dependent on government subsidies? Not just SpaceX contracts, but subsidies for solar installations and electric cars. If the government turns against those, that could severely impact his ability to fund any space missions out of pocket. Perhaps the government would fund it... but do you really think Congress would be willing to pay for a mission that wasn't mostly pork? Maybe if he offered to sell the seats to the Russians and Chinese, giving the US the right of first refusal...

Terraformer · 2018-03-12 15:09:30

About $5 billion worth of subsidies, according to the LA times.

What happens to his wealth when this gets cut off?

clark · 2018-03-12 16:18:02

The article was from 2015. The subsidies are a red herring; Space-X has passed the critical phase in funding.

National security concerns are more relevant and more likely to curtail Musk's endeavors.

Void · 2018-03-12 16:22:04

The national space counsel cuts red tape and arranges for the various space ventures to work together:
https://www.space.com/39769-second-nati … eting.html

This and the planed by Eurasia co-operation pretty much guarantees that the USA and other western governments will not be eager to destroy any of the blooming space ventures on the horizon. That would be idiotic.

Though it may cost money, we want all of the possibilities at this point.

SpaceX
Blue Origin
Dream Chaser
Branson
ULA
NASA
Others

One size does not fit all situations. Being a generalist at this time is the way to go. Takes extra energy, but keeps you out of a cul-du-sack.

......

Returning to the Health Span issue, "Speak of a good person!".
David Sinclair:
http://time.com/5159879/is-an-anti-agin … e-horizon/
Quote:

Is an Anti-Aging Pill on the Horizon?
Now scientists are trying to achieve similar results in humans. A randomized control trial (considered the gold standard of scientific research) from a different group of researchers published November 2017 in the journal Nature found that people who took a daily supplement containing NAD+ precursors had a substantial, sustained increase in their NAD+ levels over a two-month period.
Sinclair takes an NAD+ upper daily. Anecdotally, he says he doesn’t experience hangovers or jet lag like he used to, he talks faster, and feels sharper and younger. His father takes it too: “He’s 78, and used to act like Eeyore,” says Sinclair. “Now he’s going on six-day hikes and traveling around the world.

Maybe, just maybe.

.....

As far as orbital mechanics per Clark, I must say I don't like the Hohmann transfer method for that reason, and for it's reckless rocket man nature.

I prefer ballistic capture with it faults.

That is not to say that BFR should not originally be as SpaceX intends, but after that along the way, I see that it makes sense to investigate ion propulsion of fiberglass torus structures to move people and solar panels from Earth/Moon to Mars in mass.

For that I anticipate the fibers mostly coming from the Moon, and the resins perhaps most likely from Earth.

As for type of ion propulsion, I have concern about the Xenon method. If there is a massive uptick of use of Xenon, then does the price of it go up?

Therefore I have hopes that the Neumann drive will be greatly made more elegant than it is now. That drive needs metals that could come from many sources.

In order to tolerate the extended time period of Ballistic capture relative to Hohman transfer, it will be necessary to address the microgravity wasting of the human body, by the use of synthetic gravity. Also the radiation hazard needs to be handled.

Making a fiberglass torus of sufficient thickness to counter radiation will cause a mass/fuel penalty. So there are things to work on. It may be helpful however that a fiberglass structure being most likely of basalt fibers and resins may well be very good at stopping radiation.

But the energy penalties will be very severe. To try to handle that I suggest that such toroidal transfer vehicles will have solar panels deployed to them from Earth to LEO BFR's. Those panels will be delivered to Mars and packed into a Mars local BFR in LMO to go to the surface and serve Martian purposes from that point.

Shall the Fiberglass torus go back to Earth? Well maybe yes, or maybe no. Where does it have the most utility? In Mars orbit or as a transfer vehicle?

Often things like this are called half baked, because they are half baked.

But how do you bake something fully, unless you first half bake it????

Done.

Last edited by Void (2018-03-12 16:45:11)

SpaceNut · 2018-03-12 17:22:05

Much like the grasshopper start with verticle launch and landing to the falcon first stage being landed to the falcon 9 being able to do that same feat. The BFR has yet to be built to make the first stage flight even a possibility. It is thought the first stage will be powered by the Raptor methane lox solution to which the stage at any diameter is a complete redo of design in that very little is being brought forward.
The first use is a transit system for long distance fast flights simular to airline use which is then followed by mass transit to orbit flights with that probably being another upgrade for further use.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2021-11-20 05:42:54

As Elon Musk Aims For A Mars Colony By 2026 - What Will Become Of The First 'Martians'

https://www.audible.com/pd/As-Elon-Musk … B09LYX7CH8

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#1 2018-03-11 13:34:37

How did you cope?

#2 2018-03-11 15:08:49

Re: How did you cope?

#3 2018-03-11 18:16:49

Re: How did you cope?

#4 2018-03-11 18:18:46

Re: How did you cope?

#5 2018-03-11 18:31:39

Re: How did you cope?

#6 2018-03-11 19:14:32

Re: How did you cope?

#7 2018-03-12 10:37:45

Re: How did you cope?

#8 2018-03-12 11:32:41

Re: How did you cope?

#9 2018-03-12 13:40:38

Re: How did you cope?

#10 2018-03-12 14:29:36

Re: How did you cope?

#11 2018-03-12 14:51:33

Re: How did you cope?

#12 2018-03-12 15:09:30

Re: How did you cope?

#13 2018-03-12 16:18:02

Re: How did you cope?

#14 2018-03-12 16:22:04

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#15 2018-03-12 17:22:05

Re: How did you cope?

#16 2021-11-20 05:42:54

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