"clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

clark · 2018-02-23 14:54:52

SpaceNut wrote:

Hey Clark I have created a new topic based on the senerio?

Martian puzzle:

You are stranded on Mars, your hab/suit/rocket/rover/whatever has suffered complete failure, but it can be fixed. In order of priority, what do you address and why? How you fix it is not important.

Components of your survival, in no particular order: Habitat, suit, communication, air, food, water, power, individual, group.

If there is some other component you think is relevant, add it in.

Real world application: every crisis has to be run against a decision tree or prioritization matrix, and there is a very real need with the Mars analogue to have this type of thought process ingrained as base behavior in people living in this type of environment. It needs to be a near instantaneous assessment where muscle memory is driving reactions.

SpaceNut · 2018-02-23 18:40:05

Clark's parable starts with a known condition of what state we are in at the beginning of the calamity of events and how far one might be from each of them. Then its about what fails in what order as to the plausable solutions to the events. Unknown coditions and situation of events is just what fault trees are for but even thern ther is no garrantee that you will solve it in time even when a backup can also fail or not respond as systems cascade into further failure. Then solving to what is broken may not allow for time to fix the issue depending on the defects even if you have all the correct tools and parts.

clark · 2018-02-23 23:12:23

I like that, "clark's calamity", defined simply as a total failure of everything and anything, at once! If this be it, I gladly accept that as my one and only point of remembrance when I am nothing but an electron echo of indeterminate source.

I digress. The point of the puzzle is to provide a thought experiment, less on specifics, and more on how to deal with a situation of total overwhelming systems failure.

Example: You are stranded on a deserted island, earth. What are your priorities, in order, to ensure long term survival and rescue? Most might answer, water, then shelter, then food, then communication. Some might add a nuance and say, immediate individual health (think address trauma), then local environment safety, then water, shelter, food, etc.

For our martian puzzle, to help clarify, your system hab completely fails while you are out on exploration in your suit. Your suit has enough power reserves for 4 hours, and enough air for 3, assume help from outside agency is unknown, anywhere from minutes to years. Another hab or zone of safety is months away by foot or other mode of travel. What is your prioritization strategy to maximize survival?

Do you prioritize your food needs before your water needs? Do you prioritize your air needs before your power? Shelter before communication? Get the idea?

Ultimately, as a Martian, you shouldn't even have to think about this. It is a checklist pre-defined that allows you to quickly align the problem set in a generally linear order so you can focus on solving one problem at a time.

Anyways, would love to hear what people think the order of needs should be in a crisis.

elderflower · 2018-02-24 03:46:44

first you do what you need to sustain your own life for the immediate future, then whatever is needed to do the same for your buddies. After that you can assess other damage and devise a plan, between you.

SpaceNut · 2018-02-24 12:44:41

"clark's calamity", should be more defined for conditions but here is how to I think you can go about whats happening.

Assessment of resources oxygen, power, and where they are based on the starting point when you figure that you are in trouble.
Solve the issue to what it will take to fix or replace.
Calculate the time to do or to get it from where it is staged.
Assertain if that resource can be adapted from something else or made from other materials that are nearer in respect to time.

SpaceNut · 2018-03-03 14:49:44

Earth has the built in redundancy of air that mars does not have. So if when the situation happens on mars and you have an endless supply of air you go to the next item that you can no survive without.

Earth we have unless its freezing cold no need for a habitat to keep warm in but thats not the case for mars. A failure of shelter is problematic on mars as it contains that air we breath so sealing that sort of failure up is key to surviving.

If failure occurs in the space suit the first is to figure out what is the short straw for the man inside to survive until it is exhausted.

This also holds true for each failure point that you are at when events occur.

Unlike the earth bound poverty calamity that I posted Mars does have a definite priority of need for the crew that are there on its surface.

SpaceNut · 2018-03-04 22:21:38

Number04 brought up the condition of the MSDR site and how the Report that was generated can be used for mars came to mind on just the opening paragraph.

Accurate and timely data is required to make proper decisions. Having the appropriate data is critical in life support systems as the wrong decision can be catastrophic.

The communication was also key to life as if you can not hear the response to sos then you are not getting any help.

The remaining parts of the report target life support function so will post them in the topics that apply...

louis · 2018-03-05 02:14:52

I think in terms of Mars, it's:

1. Ensuring an air supply.

2. Getting your body in a pressurised space (even a working space suit).

3. Ensuring your body is heated to an operational temperature.

4. Ensuring you have a dependable power supply.

5 Securing a clean water supply.

6. Securing a food supply.

If you can do all of the above, you can look to fixing the calamity long term.

Your post does make me think for the early Mars Missions we need to think in terms of a buried emergency supply point some distance from the base with oxygen, food, an emergency battery and emergency shelter.

clark wrote:

I like that, "clark's calamity", defined simply as a total failure of everything and anything, at once! If this be it, I gladly accept that as my one and only point of remembrance when I am nothing but an electron echo of indeterminate source.
I digress. The point of the puzzle is to provide a thought experiment, less on specifics, and more on how to deal with a situation of total overwhelming systems failure.
Example: You are stranded on a deserted island, earth. What are your priorities, in order, to ensure long term survival and rescue? Most might answer, water, then shelter, then food, then communication. Some might add a nuance and say, immediate individual health (think address trauma), then local environment safety, then water, shelter, food, etc.
For our martian puzzle, to help clarify, your system hab completely fails while you are out on exploration in your suit. Your suit has enough power reserves for 4 hours, and enough air for 3, assume help from outside agency is unknown, anywhere from minutes to years. Another hab or zone of safety is months away by foot or other mode of travel. What is your prioritization strategy to maximize survival?
Do you prioritize your food needs before your water needs? Do you prioritize your air needs before your power? Shelter before communication? Get the idea?
Ultimately, as a Martian, you shouldn't even have to think about this. It is a checklist pre-defined that allows you to quickly align the problem set in a generally linear order so you can focus on solving one problem at a time.
Anyways, would love to hear what people think the order of needs should be in a crisis.

Last edited by louis (2018-03-05 02:17:42)

SpaceNut · 2018-03-05 17:26:27

Its not just about the priority of need but how to go about resolving the problem in the time factors based on what you have and where you have it. The small payload caches due to not being able to land the large payloads mission design aids in the prevention of some issues but not for all as that would mean landing a larger payload to accomplish the backup senerios that could happen.

Knowing how to respond to the situation requires nothing how to determine what is the high priority item that has the shortest time pole for man survival and then solving to the next to continue.

JoshNH4H · 2018-03-05 21:25:23

I would say that environmental concerns are important in this order:

Air Pressure/Pressure Containment
Oxygen
Temperature
Communications
Power
Water
Food

Which suggests the very first thing you need to take care of is any holes in your suit, then oxygen percent, then put on the warmest jacket you can find (assuming you need power for heaters and communications), then suit battery, then your suit-water and suit-food. Once you've completed this checklist I think you could call your suit "secured" and then move on to your rover. At that point you would run down the same checklist and call it "catastrophe averted" upon completion, and you can either limp your way to safety or hope someone can reach you in time.

SpaceNut · 2018-03-05 21:54:33

With any non defect detected meaning that you skip to the next number on the priority assesment list to be resolved. This is where a common small tool bag is left in tow with you for the suit and one for the rover...these are simular to the emergency kit idea. Small compact and lite weight.

Oldfart1939 · 2018-03-06 00:15:48

I've already reported in on this topic under my Air. Shelter. Water. Food, thread. In that one I pointed out that without air we are essentially toast. That is always priority #1. Protection from the elements is #2, important before hypothermia kills us; we can go for 3 to 5 days without water and 2-3 weeks without food. Taking things in that order. Get air for the suit, get the hab fixed, secure your water supply, and finally the food. Q.E.D.

elderflower · 2018-03-06 05:12:35

You may have to fit in some medical/surgical intervention for other crewmembers or yourself, Oldfart. That probably comes between hab fix and secure water supply. Less urgent cases would be postponed until the water resource question is dealt with.

Oldfart1939 · 2018-03-06 10:18:22

elderflower-

There are several points in my experience that led me to the sequence I suggested. In advanced First Aid training and emergency responder training, the life threatening signs to look for are in order: breathing, bleeding, and poisoning. If the subject ain't breathing--they won't be bleeding if the heart is already stopped. So...it's CPR first; that means air supply before anything else is considered. Under extreme conditions, hypothermia can kill a person in under 3 hours, so getting shelter is definitely #2 on Clark's Catastrophe list. It's almost as though we have to think "triage." Most urgent in life support: breathing, warmth, and then water/food.

elderflower · 2018-03-06 12:29:30

There must, of course be triage for casualties, this is the standard emergency medical process. We will also have to apply it, as you say, to the physical circumstances. There may be a mismatch and some patients may have to be left to suffer or die in order to secure life support for others. It's not going to be easy for the group commander. I'm glad it won't be me!

Oldfart1939 · 2018-03-06 13:58:06

If Elon will send me, I'll do it! In the Army I was trained as a Combat Medic.

Oldfart1939 · 2018-03-06 14:01:35

The other factor that must be considered is power. I would put that before water and food, but after habitat repairs and protection from the elements (vacuum or low pressure, and penetrating cold).

tahanson43206 · 2018-12-01 19:22:26

louis wrote:

I think in terms of Mars, it's:

Your post does make me think for the early Mars Missions we need to think in terms of a buried emergency supply point some distance from the base with oxygen, food, an emergency battery and emergency shelter.

Louis,

Your earlier post in this topic came up when I was looking for "emergency shelter". There were a number of citations in several topics.

My question is:

Can planning for emergency shelter on Mars lend itself to similar planning for Earth.

For example, is it possible to design an emergency home shelter for use in California and other Western US states, where wild fires can and do consume almost everything above ground?

The environment in a forest fire has some overlap with or similarity to that of Mars, in that the atmosphere is not appropriate for breathing in an emergency.

As usual, I am looking for the business opportunities which may arise from a need for emergency shelter, both on Mars and on Earth (or other locations).

(th)

SpaceNut · 2018-12-01 19:50:56

posted about earth in the California fire topic.

For mars the issue is what, where and when what ever the issue might be as the situation is different for a open rover, to that of a pressurized rover.

Of course that would be different for an inflatable habitat or tuna can shelter.

The situation of medical is a different topic for what could happen for the same set of conditions for when the unknown problem happens.

clark · 2018-12-04 22:47:30

oldfart for the win, pity the congratulations given the handle

tahanson43206, look elsewhere for your kickstarter. the problem set is different enough to exclude commonality.

also, for the crew: tahanson43206, if you are asking this kind of clarifying question, you don't actually appreciate mars and are probably only here to exploit others.

louis · 2018-12-05 03:56:51

An emergency shelter on Mars is certainly required. I think you would defintiely need emergency shelters (bit like cupboards or lockers) in the hab areas - the residential, industrial and agricultural habs. They would incorporate oxygen supply and be capable of pressurisation. They could include a radio, which could communicate with other habs and the main coms centre.

In terms of emergency planning, I think if you had 10 pioneers there might be a requirement to ensure at least one and maybe two were always in a pressurised rover. That way, they would be a in position to rescue their fellow pioneers and get them safely back to the BFR Starship where they can all safely regroup. So that might be a rota requirement.

An emergency shelter in a big wildfire? Could be like being cooked in a can...you'd probably have to go quite deep to avoid that fate I imagine. But maybe aerogel would protect from the heat?

tahanson43206 wrote:

louis wrote:
I think in terms of Mars, it's:

Your post does make me think for the early Mars Missions we need to think in terms of a buried emergency supply point some distance from the base with oxygen, food, an emergency battery and emergency shelter.
Louis,
Your earlier post in this topic came up when I was looking for "emergency shelter". There were a number of citations in several topics.
My question is:
Can planning for emergency shelter on Mars lend itself to similar planning for Earth.
For example, is it possible to design an emergency home shelter for use in California and other Western US states, where wild fires can and do consume almost everything above ground?
The environment in a forest fire has some overlap with or similarity to that of Mars, in that the atmosphere is not appropriate for breathing in an emergency.
As usual, I am looking for the business opportunities which may arise from a need for emergency shelter, both on Mars and on Earth (or other locations).
(th)

RobertDyck · 2018-12-05 07:56:38

I thought of fire protection during a past fire. This isn't the first one in California. You could build a house using ICG: Insulating Concrete Forms. But instead of making the forms out of Styrofoam, make them out of silicone resin expanded as a foam. Silicone resin is similar to silicone rubber but more firm. It's non-flammable. And obviously that means exterior wall will be solid concrete. For siding, use brick on all 4 sides of the house. Between the ICF and brick, install a bladder of silicone rubber. Fill the bladder with water. If a fire hits the house, the water will boil. Ensure there's a steam vent at the top of the bladder. For the roof of the house, use a steel truss. And don't use asphalt shingles, instead something non-flammable. That could be a steel roof, or concrete or clay roof tiles. With the roof supported by truss from exterior concrete wall, interior walls will not be weight-bearing. So use the same galvanized steel wall studs used for offices. They cost the same as wood studs, but are non-flammable. These are the important features, but you could go further. Instead of regular drywall, use gypsum with fibreglass felt facing instead of paper. Georgia-Pacific calls it "fibreglass mat"; their product brand name is DensArmor Plus. It's supposed to be highly resistant to moisture. But this means walls will be entirely non-flammable. And use real plaster for seams, not some polymer product. Again, non-flammable.

Floors could be tricky. If you want the house entirely non-flammable, you could use a concrete slab. If the house has a basement, the floor could be a steel-concrete composite. Second floor could also use that. This is a construction technique used for office buildings. It's a steel tray attached to outside walls, used to hold the wet cement. Heavy wire mesh installed in the wet cement. The steel tray stays permanently in place, becoming part of the floor. This gives you a concrete floor for each floor. I say "tricky" because some people may not want a concrete floor; it's hard. You could put a silicone rubber underlay beneath carpet. And use carpet with fibreglass cloth backing. Carpet pile would be normal, so carpet pile would not be non-flammable but would be flame retardant.

Then think of things like stainless steel cupboards, anodized for durable colour, with silicone rubber inserts as sound dampeners. Counter tops made of granite, marble, or cultured marble.

Use hard flooring in closets, not carpet. Hard flooring in dining room, kitchen, foyer, bathrooms. Do not use vinyl flooring, instead something non-flammable such as ceramic tile, marble, terrazzo, travertine, terracotta, etc. And again use cement grout, not a polymer product to install the tile. Again, non-flammable.

The water jacket around the house, outside the concrete wall with insulation, means the entire house will be protected against fire.

RobertDyck · 2018-12-05 08:27:18

Also for a non-flammable house copper plumbing, not PVC. And for sewage plumbing use stainless steel 409, not ABS. It's stainless so won't rust like old steel pipes, but this grade has the minimum amount of nickel and chrome, making it less expensive than other grades of stainless. And you need corrosion resistance for sewage due to puke that will have stomach acid, or diarrhea that will have intestinal digestive enzymes. This grade is corrosion resistant. Stainless 409 is normally used for car exhaust pipes. It will form a patina of rust, it won't stay shinny, but chrome in the alloy will form chrome oxide that seals the metal from further corrosion.

You could even use electrical wiring with Teflon insulation. And metal electrical boxes, not plastic. Again, all non-flammable.

Last edited by RobertDyck (2018-12-05 08:34:06)

SpaceNut · 2018-12-05 10:34:51

I agree that these are all items to consider in a mars habitat which could have such a fire that must be put out quickly and for Louis the safety location haven is as well important if unable to combat the fire.

RobertDyck · 2018-12-05 11:32:17

Another useful technology for Mars is rock wool. Same insulation as fibreglass but non-flammable, and perhaps more importantly easy to make. It's made by melting rock and extruding. No binder, the hot rock fibres stick together before they cool.
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#1 2018-02-23 14:54:52

"clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#2 2018-02-23 18:40:05

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#3 2018-02-23 23:12:23

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#4 2018-02-24 03:46:44

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#5 2018-02-24 12:44:41

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#6 2018-03-03 14:49:44

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#7 2018-03-04 22:21:38

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#8 2018-03-05 02:14:52

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#9 2018-03-05 17:26:27

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#10 2018-03-05 21:25:23

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#11 2018-03-05 21:54:33

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#12 2018-03-06 00:15:48

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#13 2018-03-06 05:12:35

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#14 2018-03-06 10:18:22

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#15 2018-03-06 12:29:30

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#16 2018-03-06 13:58:06

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#17 2018-03-06 14:01:35

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#18 2018-12-01 19:22:26

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#19 2018-12-01 19:50:56

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#20 2018-12-04 22:47:30

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#21 2018-12-05 03:56:51

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#22 2018-12-05 07:56:38

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#23 2018-12-05 08:27:18

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#24 2018-12-05 10:34:51

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

#25 2018-12-05 11:32:17

Re: "clark's calamity", when bad luck is all you have

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