Moon race w/ China - A new space race with China

Mark S · 2002-04-13 20:52:44

China clearly has its sights set on the moon. I hope that the upstart Chinese space program forces NASA to make amends for its "One step forward, two steps back" approach to planetary exploration. Perhaps we will put together a program that will at least give China a challenge on the way back to the moon.

Any lunar return should be aimed at establishing a lasting human presence. Perhaps a tether transport system, or an oxygen plant on the lunar surface, could be used for the American lunar return. But the moon holds the key to solving our energy problems. Solar panels could be created from lunar materials, and the microwave energy could be beamed from the bright side of the moon to the earth. Later on, Helium-3 could be mined from the surface and shipped to fusion reactors on earth. However, we should view the moon as a cosmic strip mine, rather than a potential homeworld like Mars could be.

Phobos · 2002-04-14 15:49:33

I wonder how interested the general public would be in a moon race with China. I hope I'm wrong, but I get the feeling much of the public won't care about a new race to the moon or any manned missions to the moon at all. I think many people will have the attitude of either "we've already been there so who cares", or they'll just fight tooth and nail to spend the money on "social projects." I do agree though that if we go back to the moon it should be to set up a
permanent or at least a mission of long duration. Anyways, I hope China manages to pull off a manned mission to the moon. Who knows, it could spark new interest in the apathetic.

RobS · 2002-04-14 15:55:36

The various articles I've seen on Space.com and SpaceDaily.com have given two dates for the Chinese to go to the moon: 2010 and 2030. I suspect 2030 is more likely, as they'd have to spend an incredible amount of money to get there in 8 years. It may push NASA to return sooner, but I suspect they'll go back before 2030 anyway. Once the space station is finished in another 3 or 4 years, they will be in the position to set another goal, and the moon is the logical one. If they do that, we'd have people back on the moon by 2010 to 2015. (Of course, the new administrator does not seem to favored manned flight, so it may be that the Japanese or French will compete with the Chinese!).

I'm not sure the moon is quite as much of a panacea, though, as some think. Beaming power from the lunar surface is complicated by the day night cycle; you need at least two stations to keep the power going constantly, plus mirrors to supplement natural sunlight close to sunrise and sunset and during eclipses. You could do the same with one solar station in a very high earth orbit, inclined to the equator so that it always avoids the earth's shadow. Helium-3 is not yet known to be useful to humanity; after 50 years of trying, we are still a long way from controled fusion for power. And I hope we will develop a philosophy about the moon that regards it as more than a strip mine; even though nothing is alive there, the landscape has an inherent beauty of its own that needs some levels of respect and protection. Possibly the surface can be restored, if we ever develop the need to strip mine large areas of the moon.

-- RobS

Mark S · 2002-04-16 13:50:09

Rob, you are totally right about the difficulties of using the moon to end our energy needs. However, "when there's a will, there's a way." Once we start facing petroleum shortages, we will get serious about getting power from space.

I really can't speculate as to when China will go to the moon. Their manned flight is expected in 2003, with a 1st-generation space station to follow possibly as soon as 2005. Some boastful scientists claimed that there'd be a Taikonaut on the moon by 2010, but I think that 2015 is much more realistic. China does have plans to send probes to the moon in a few years. But a manned flight will have to wait until China develops a true heavy-lift launcher.

quasar777 · 2002-05-05 18:41:22

a great many people are interested in the moon.

Adrian · 2002-05-20 09:18:20

China is being very vocal and open about its space exploration ambitions - they are planning to launch their first Moon mission (not known whether it is manned or unmanned) in 2010, with the ultimate goal of setting up a base for minerals extraction.

It strikes me that this isn't the best way of getting minerals, probably mining asteroids is more cost effective, but then I doubt that this is China's true goal. I'm always doubtful of proclamations from space agencies, so I'll withhold judgement on China until I see them actively extending their capabilities beyond Earth orbit.

Phobos · 2002-05-20 15:18:18

Maybe the Chinese are gonna mine for helium 3 on the moon to power their top secret fusion reactor. Yeah, I definately suspect an ulterior motive other than mining, the cost of transporting supplies/ore back and forth between Earth and the moon would seem to negate the benefits.
If they aren't doing it merely for the sake of prestige or militaristic reasons, maybe they're interested in learning how
to mine/survive in places like the moon. Nigeria after all
is actually planning to spend a hundred million a year in
attempt to create wealth from outer space. To bad they
don't have a hundred billion.

Palomar · 2002-06-11 17:07:30

Phobos wrote: "I wonder how interested the general public would be in a moon race with China. I hope I'm wrong, but I get the feeling much of the public won't care about a new race to the moon or any manned missions to the moon at all. I think many people will have the attitude of either "we've already been there so who cares",

*My guess is that this will be the general attitude of many Westerners. However, the rest of the world -- particularly Asian nations -- may take a very keen interest.

"or they'll just fight tooth and nail to spend the money on "social projects." I do agree though that if we go back to the moon it should be to set up a permanent or at least a mission of long duration. Anyways, I hope China manages to pull off a manned mission to the moon. Who knows, it could spark new interest in the apathetic."

*I hear you. I've also read (can't recall the source) about a year ago that the Chinese hope to send a manned mission to Mars no later than 2015 (or thereabouts). What I'm wondering is *where* is their money for all this coming from, or going to come from?

--Cindy

Phobos · 2002-06-11 21:50:07

*My guess is that this will be the general attitude of many Westerners. However, the rest of the world -- particularly Asian nations -- may take a very keen interest.

The Chinese elite seem to be milking their space endeavour all they can to fan the flames of nationalism. I think in many ways the Chinese space effort is paralleling the space effort of the 60's. I think you might be right about Asia as a whole gaining more interest in space. Japan seems to be ratcheting up its space program to full throttle lately. Of any country I'd like to see in space is Japan. It's fairly safe to assume they wouldn't be using their projects as military covers.

*I hear you. I've also read (can't recall the source) about a year ago that the Chinese hope to send a manned mission to Mars no later than 2015 (or thereabouts). What I'm wondering is *where* is their money for all this coming from, or going to come from?

I think the Chinese are doing a lot of dreaming if they plan to go to Mars just five years after they will have supposedly landed on the Moon. If the Chinese are truly planning on these space projects and aren't just posturing, I think they should just can the Moon shot and go straight for Mars. If that doesn't wake up the West, nothing will. Of course, I'm not so sure I'd volunteer for that mission.

Shaun Barrett · 2002-06-13 00:38:55

Cindy asks where China is going to get the money for a Mars mission.
They stated recently that the big costs are in technology development and that they are prepared to learn from other space-faring nations. In other words they're happy to buy second-hand technology, especially from Russia I assume.
I think also that Cindy's reaction, although perfectly understandable when you see how NASA does business, is based on a misperception: Sending people to the Moon, or even Mars, is probably not as expensive as we're led to believe; especially if you're prepared to buy cheap from other nations.
There's some guy in America who is the "cheapskate's Maharishi Yogi"! He has shown that he can feed and clothe himself, and even furnish his home, for a tiny fraction of what most of us pay. This man never stops bargain-hunting! I think China will do the same in space.
Your hero and mine, the great Dr. Zubrin, has pointed out how NASA can get the bill for manned Mars missions down from the $500 billion of 1989 to maybe $30 billion today. Most people will tell you that the primary obstacles to such missions are NOT technology and NOT money, but the lack of political will.
If China, which appears to have the political will, puts aside just $4 billion a year between now and 2015, they'll have about $50 billion towards their dream of Taikonauts on Mars; more than enough for Mars Direct style missions. And it's relatively inexpensive form of international prestige, too!
I think China might just surprise us all.

Phobos · 2002-06-13 02:36:46

They stated recently that the big costs are in technology development and that they are prepared to learn from other space-faring nations. In other words they're happy to buy second-hand technology, especially from Russia I assume.

To be honest, I had less respect for the Chinese space program because I viewed them more as copycats than anything else, but I think you just changed my mind. Maybe China will earn more respect for being a great doer instead of being a great innovator of space technology. After all, why reinvent the wheel if someone has already done it? Let somebody else blow their bank accounts developing the technology.

If China, which appears to have the political will, puts aside just $4 billion a year between now and 2015, they'll have about $50 billion towards their dream of Taikonauts on Mars; more than enough for Mars Direct style missions. And it's relatively inexpensive form of international prestige, too!
I think China might just surprise us all.

Fifty billion should do it. I wonder if the Chinese have studied Mars Direct at all. Even though I can't say I love China's form of government, I think its about dam time a country finally got some vision for going places other then LEO. I still think if they want to get to Mars by 2015 though they'd be better off just cancelling their Moon excursion, but perhaps they can have both and eat their cake to. Guess it can't hurt to be optimistic.

Yang Liwei Rocket · 2004-03-07 03:26:05

yes, this might encourage the US space industry to build faster, better, and cheaper designs and spur them into creating new project

dicktice · 2004-03-07 09:48:40

http://newmars.com/forums/edit.php?id=29468How intriguing! Notice the time interval between Phobos's June 13, 2002 post, and Yang Liwei Rocket's Mar. 07, 2004 post. What implications should we draw from that?

Rxke · 2004-03-07 10:02:35

? Huh?

You mean the Chinese program hasn't been discussed since?
But there are other threads, so...
Or are you hinting at something different?

Yang Liwei Rocket · 2004-03-08 00:57:00

Dictice, was my posts wrong. Is it forbidden to continue old topics or older discussion on this forum?

dicktice · 2004-03-08 09:57:02

Nothing intended, except that during the time interval indicated, the Chinese manned orbiter program was progressing solidly--utilizing only the best while rejecting the worst of the other space agencies' past programs--towards what can only be judged from their infrastructure in the Gobi Desert, as an ultimate Moon landing and return; all accomplished without the stimulus a Moon-race competitor might have provided. So, what does this tell you about their actual agenda in space: ultimate colonization?

Rxke · 2004-03-08 11:22:02

So, what does this tell you about their actual agenda in space: ultimate colonization?

Definitely. They never denied that, did they?

I wish 'em all the luck they can get. They have some impressive hardware, it's not straight copycatting, their semi-modular modules are proof they thought this through, before actually building stuff.
With 3 launches, they could have themselves a half decent orbital space-station, that could get bigger every next launch, if they chose so...
People always say they're decades behind, but already they're planning a week-long mission manned two, in a vehicule that can accomodate three.
If they choose to keep the service module in orbit and dock with it the next launch, they have in essence a baby-spacestation... Probaly won't happen that fast, they're still testing their stuff, but on paper they are perfectly capable of doing this, today...

A bit off-topic, but the Communist regime could be communist only in name after this week, they plan to vote a law that makes private ownership legal, of course to make it more interesting for foreign investors... They are, ever so slowly, opening up to the (Western) world.

China *is* changing. Who knows where they will stand politically in the next ten years? Wouldn't it be great to see them land on the Moon, without having to be suspicious about their motives?

...I know, one can always dream....

Palomar · 2004-04-08 12:46:57

*Saw this at space.com's "Astronotes" (column form, updated and archived; must copy and paste); good luck to them:

***
China Developing Lunar Rover

China’s multi-phased lunar exploration program includes a robotic Moon rover.

The work is being carried out under China’s High Tech Research and Development Program, involving nearly a dozen scientific research institutions. Early work on a lunar rover was initiated by Tsinghua University in 1999.

The vehicle is being designed for a range of driving conditions. Infrared sensors mounted on the rover’s classy chassis would spot troublesome objects in its path, then maneuver around those obstacles.

Luan Enjie, general director of China's Chang'e Project – that nation’s Moon exploration program -- and China National Space Administration (CNSA) chief, is on the lookout for innovation and creativity in building the lunar rover.

According to an April 7 report in China’s People’s Daily, Luan said the lunar rover would carry the names of those institutions that take part in the vehicle’s development.

China's Chang'e Program, named after a goddess who reached the Moon in an ancient Chinese fairy tale, is divided into three phases: Sending a satellite to orbit the Moon by 2007; landing an unmanned vehicle on the lunar landscape by 2010; and collecting samples of lunar soil with an unmanned vehicle by 2020.

***

--Cindy

SBird · 2004-04-08 15:12:24

Rxke - Frankly, I'm all for the Chinese space program. To be honest, I'm more suspicious of French intentions towards the US than China these days - at least the Chinese are relatively predictable. Not knowing the detail of the private ownership changes you mention, I have to add that private owensership of goods and businesses in China has been legal for decades now. Whatever this new step is, it's incremental.

About a year and a half ago, I spent 5 weeks backpacking through China. The thing that struck me the most is how capitalist it is. There is nothing communist about China, even in name, anymore. Everyone works at two jobs a store or restraunt and has at least one small business operating out of their living room. Ignoring the air pollution and insane traffic, you would be hard pressed to notice a difference between Beijing and the Chinatown of Vancouver. Their love for capitalism reminds be of how I always picture the US about 50 years ago, all full of excitement and optimism. I just hope that they're ready for their 1960's and 1970's.

The Chinese government is also expected to become gradually less authoritarian - there's just too much American influence culturally and too much internal pressure to liberalize the government. The public apologies last year during the SARS ourbreak were a sign of the times - it's one of the first times the Chinese gov't has taken direct responsibility for its mistakes, much less apologized. They even called in US CDC help.

Also, traditionally, the US and China have had good relations. They still remember the help we gave to them in WWII. Although I don't expect the US and China to become bosom buddies anytime soon, I don't expect relations to ever turn as Cold War as they did with the USSR unless something goes horribly wrong.

By comparison, Russia, which is nominally our ally now is still actively developing weapons of mass destruction such as migh maneuverability ICBM reentry warheads and nuclear tipped anti-carrier hypercavitation torpedos whose only practical use would be against us. Just because China uses their space capsules to snoop on our military maneuvers doesn't really mean anything, we constantly snoop on them as well.

I've think that the Chinese space program is quite well planned. They're using a well tested design and making sensible, small changes to it. Given that the CEV is going back to Apollo designs, I'd say that the Chinese are making wise decisions. Given a concerted effort on the part of the US, I'd be really suprised if they beat us back to the Moon ar to Mars. We've just got to much infrastructure and experience to be passed in the next couple of decades. However, I fully expect China to be a major space power in a few more decades.

SBird · 2004-04-08 15:14:25

ecrasez -
"Infrared sensors mounted on the rover’s classy chassis..."
What, are they planning on using a '67 Mustang for the chassis?

Euler · 2004-04-08 15:52:45

Given a concerted effort on the part of the US, I'd be really suprised if they beat us back to the Moon ar to Mars. We've just got to much infrastructure and experience to be passed in the next couple of decades. However, I fully expect China to be a major space power in a few more decades.

I would be somewhat surprised if Bush's plan gets NASA to Mars at all. NASA's manned spaceflight recently has had a history of delays, cost overruns, and cancelled programs. In addition, Congress has yet to approve the plan, and changing political climates are likely to end any program that is this long-term before it reaches completion.

China's space program has been good about meeting its goals without any delays. China also has the advantage of a more stable political system and a rapidly expanding economy. All this might not be enough to offset America's experience and infostructure, but there are still other aspects to consider. The ESA also has a plan to send people to Mars in the same timeframe as the American mission. China and the ESA have been working together on several projects, and both have been learning a lot from Russia's experience. China has also been improving its relationship with Japan and India, each of which has a growing space program. This leads to the possibility that there will be a US mission competing against a Chinese-ESA-Russian-Japanese-Indian mission, in which case I would bet against the US.

Cobra Commander · 2004-04-08 16:05:49

China's space program has been good about meeting its goals without any delays. China also has the advantage of a more stable political system and a rapidly expanding economy.

Well, I'm not sure China's political system is as stable as it appears. There are cracks, and they're getting wider. Maybe, just maybe, they'll implode.

That said, I hope they do well. And if possible, be a little snooty about it, shove it in our faces. The USA can still grab a significant lead very quickly if the motivation is there.

SBird · 2004-04-08 16:43:34

I think that's part of the reason their space program has been low key. They know that if they make a big deal about it, the US will get riled up, throw billions at Space Race 2.0 and beat them to Mars, balanced budgets be damned. We're sort of predictable that way.

Ad Astra · 2004-04-09 16:01:01

If the Chinese space program actually released its expected time schedules, it would probably look somewhat like NASA's tentative schedules, which are normally plagued with problems, scrubs, and delays. The Chinese space officials have deliberately set low expectations for their space program to avoid disappointing people. In late 2002, they weren't saying they'd have a man in space until 2005. Now they're saying their next mission won't be until 2006. If they moved the launch up to 2005 I would not be surprised, because it's well within their capabilities.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-07-26 07:11:38

China dismisses 'reckless' claim it's planning a military 'take over' of the Moon
https://interestingengineering.com/chin … ver-claims

Tianwen-1 has imaged the entire surface of Mars, completing its primary mission
https://phys.org/news/2022-07-china-tia … rface.html

Former NASA administrator on China's moon mission push: Important for Congress to recognize
https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6309535006112/

China adds new science laboratory to its space station
https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/china-s … -1.6531241

politics?
Some think its a bad idea to work with Beijing, there is also that NASA tech ban

Chinese and US scientists build bridges with cutting-edge Hale telescope project
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science … -edge-hale

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