Success by 2030?

Palomar7 · 2017-12-20 17:05:22

Will current US "Oval Office & Co" get us to Mars?

Not seeking to discuss politics btw.

Current President has stated his intention for a manned mission to Mars. What are the chances that will happen, in your estimation?

I'm holding out 40% hope.

louis · 2017-12-20 19:19:20

Are you up to speed with Space X's plans? I think the consensus here is that Space X will get to Mars before NASA - that at some point Space X will be taken on as NASA's contractor for getting to Mars. Space X plan to get a cargo rocket landed in 2022 and humans to Mars by 2024. Most people think this a bit over-ambitious and likely to slip by at least 2 years, and maybe more. I am in the optimistic camp thinking they can do it now they have nearly all the required technologies in place.

Palomar7 wrote:

Will current US "Oval Office & Co" get us to Mars?
Not seeking to discuss politics btw.
Current President has stated his intention for a manned mission to Mars. What are the chances that will happen, in your estimation?
I'm holding out 40% hope.

Palomar7 · 2017-12-20 19:32:45

louis wrote:

Are you up to speed with Space X's plans? I think the consensus here is that Space X will get to Mars before NASA - that at some point Space X will be taken on as NASA's contractor for getting to Mars. Space X plan to get a cargo rocket landed in 2022 and humans to Mars by 2024. Most people think this a bit over-ambitious and likely to slip by at least 2 years, and maybe more. I am in the optimistic camp thinking they can do it now they have nearly all the required technologies in place.

Thanks.

Unfortunately I've not kept up in a while (career-related tumult since September). Your comment "...at some point Space X will be taken on as NASA's contractor..." is familiar (as I'd last read elsewhere).

Aside from a lifelong desire, imho the society in which I currently find myself truly needs a MAJOR "breath of fresh air." Going to Mars will hopefully accomplish that too.

RobertDyck · 2017-12-20 19:40:20

They could. They would have to get firm, to kick but. There are individuals in NASA who don't like the current "Oval Office & Co", so are deliberately fighting against them. Current President would have to fire someone to get anything to happen. I don't think he realizes that yet.

SpaceNut · 2017-12-20 19:42:01

Even getting man to go to the moon for more than the past style sortie mission would a plus besides that would mean we are finally free of just staying in LEO even while still supporting its use....

kbd512 · 2017-12-20 19:43:33

At this point I would consider getting astronauts outside of LEO to be a smashing success.

Oldfart1939 · 2017-12-21 00:54:29

The recent new tax bill, soon to become law, will provide SpaceX with some financial incentives to make additional hires and increase investment. Reduction of the corporate tax will accomplish that for others as Boeing has already demonstrated.

Palomar7 · 2017-12-21 07:13:00

RobertDyck wrote:

They could. They would have to get firm, to kick but. There are individuals in NASA who don't like the current "Oval Office & Co", so are deliberately fighting against them. Current President would have to fire someone to get anything to happen. I don't think he realizes that yet.

And that's unfortunate (tax payer $$)...should simply do their job. A current supervisor of mine is unlikable and yet...I'm being paid to do a job.

I wish they'd simply focus on doing their taxpayer-paid jobs. Ah well.

Josh Cryer · 2017-12-22 03:05:38

SpaceX will get to Mars before any other governmental agency.

Palomar7 · 2017-12-22 13:24:57

Josh Cryer wrote:

SpaceX will get to Mars before any other governmental agency.

I see they're still hoisting satellites.

Will get up to speed on all this ASAP - on my own time/effort of course.

Quaoar · 2017-12-25 11:16:10

Palomar7 wrote:

Will current US "Oval Office & Co" get us to Mars?
Not seeking to discuss politics btw.
Current President has stated his intention for a manned mission to Mars. What are the chances that will happen, in your estimation?
I'm holding out 40% hope.

2030 is not too far. If someone really wants to send a manned mission to Mars in the next 12 yr. he has to start immediately to project, build and test a lander and a MTV, and he also has to hurry up because time is very short. Until I don't se anything of that I don't believe in idle talk

RobertDyck · 2017-12-25 12:20:45

Back in the early 1990s, NASA was saying either 2030 or 2060, depending which NASA employee was interviewed. Don't expect 2030 to be a hard figure. It's "sometime after the current administration", with no plans to do any work toward that goal. They talk about Mars just to get funds, but have no intention of doing any work to get there. SLS was a major success, something that could actually be used to get to Mars. But that is being sabotaged by delays, cost overruns, and the only manifest is "Deep Space Gateway". That can only be described as an attempt to cancel SLS. And now we appear guaranteed that Falcon Heavy will fly before SLS. Many people on this forum have questioned whether SLS will be relevant after Falcon Heavy is operational.

Terraformer · 2017-12-25 13:57:27

I suspect Musk's plan is to force the hand of Congress. Develop what's needed, and then offer to sell the mission to the US government. If they don't pay up, I'm sure other countries would be willing to pay money to send an astronaut to Mars.

SpaceNut · 2017-12-25 17:53:09

We have already wasted from 2004 - 2017 on shuttle shutdown, funding constellation and its resurected SLS, along which switching to feed a commercial industry that was stagnate under the old space companies as they seen not interested in creating access to space. If it were not for the need to create a sustaining path to the ISS even the Dragon and cygnus would not be as both were to achieve a goal.

It is to bad that Nasa has sided with old space for the Deep Space Gateway but if ATK and Space X desired to enter into competition, I would not look a gift horse in the mouth as that is what we need to give old space another kick in the rear.....

So how do we motivate the old space or even the words from the Space council or even the executive orders which all seem to not do anything to improve the conditions.

Oldfart1939 · 2017-12-30 13:45:09

The only hope I have is through Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. OldSpace is still mired in--and hopeful for--a return to the obscenely expensive 90 Day Plan and the Battlestar Galactica space vessels. All we can hope for at this juncture is a smashing success of the Falcon Heavy.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-03-06 05:00:08

Elon Musk's Mars and moon-bound Starship completes key booster test ahead of maiden orbital flight next month
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech … light.html

NASA proposes final extension of ISS cargo contracts
https://spacenews.com/nasa-proposes-fin … contracts/

NASA is proposing extending three existing contracts to transport cargo to and from the International Space Station through the anticipated end of the station in 2030, rather than recompete them.

In a March 2 procurement notice, NASA said it intended to issue sole-source extensions of its Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) 2 contracts with Northrop Grumman, Sierra Space and SpaceX. Those extensions would cover missions from January 2027 through December 2030. NASA has previously announced its intent to end the ISS program and transition to commercial space stations by 2030.

NASA did not state in the notice why it was extending the contracts rather than holding a new competition. The notice gives companies proposing to offer alternative cargo vehicles until March 17 to provide NASA with information about their capabilities so that NASA can decide whether to hold an open competition or issue the extensions.

NASA awarded those three companies CRS-2 contracts in 2016 to provide cargo delivery as a successor to the original CRS contracts to Orbital Sciences (now part of Northrop) and SpaceX. Each company was guaranteed at least six missions under the contract, with the ability for NASA to order more.

In March 2022, NASA announced it had ordered six additional missions each from Northrop and SpaceX, bringing the total ordered to date to 14 from Northrop and 15 from SpaceX. NASA has formally ordered only three Dream Chaser missions from Sierra Space, although the company says it will fly at least seven missions under its CRS-2 contract, the first of which is scheduled for later this year on the second Vulcan Centaur launch.

NASA did not disclose the value of those additional missions, stating at the time that pricing information on those contracts is “contractor confidential data.” According to procurement databases, NASA has obligated about $2.2 billion to date to Northrop, $1.1 billion to Sierra Space and $2.35 billion to SpaceX.

It’s unclear if any company would be interested in bidding on a new CRS competition, given the short duration of the contract. Boeing offered a version of its CST-100 Starliner commercial crew vehicle in the original CRS-2 competition, but NASA did not consider it in the final phase of proposal evaluations. Lockheed Martin also submitted a CRS-2 proposal but NASA determined it was not in the “competitive range” for the program and dropped it earlier in the evaluation phase.

Both Northrop and SpaceX are preparing for their next cargo missions to the ISS in the coming weeks. At a March 2 briefing after the launch of the Crew-6 commercial crew mission, Dina Contella, NASA ISS operations integration manager, said NASA was planning a mid-March launch of the next cargo Dragon mission, SpX-27, a date that will depend on the departure of the Crew-5 Crew Dragon spacecraft from the station, freeing up the docking port the cargo Dragon will use.

She said that will be followed by the departure of the NG-18 Cygnus spacecraft, which has been at the station since November, and the launch of the NG-19 Cygnus tentatively scheduled for April. The NG-19 launch will be the last of the current version of the Antares rocket as Northrop works with Firefly Aerospace on a new version that does away with the Ukrainian-built first stage and Russian engines. While that new Antares vehicle is in development, Northrop plans to launch three Cygnus spacecraft on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2024-06-07 02:56:45

Two previous space policy which we already know...will they change much when one is re-elected

'Why Biden might be happy to debate Trump in June'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-69023014

Musk is moving forward with Space-X Starship, Boeing is at the ISS with Starliner on the reliable Lockheed designed Atlas-V managed by ULA, there are other Super-Heavy like SLS that all sounds very good.

But there won't be humans on Mars by 2030 that is very unlikely with the focus on having people live on the Moon and building Gateway, there might be a Mars Sample Return and that could be by China not NASA not JPL not Elon Musk but maybe the Chinese will land a robotic spacecraft take a sample and return it and that will be maybe too tough to take. At any time the Chinese are not too far behind NASA or Musk, they copy or are 'inspired' by US designs some might argue they are ahead in some ways X-ray high energy telescopes as NASA cuts or cancels them, China has successfully tested grown plants on the Moon, their own station free of political issues, a Lunar far-side sample and now looking at a more simple MSR design.

Working with Russians fully again seems to be finished after the Russia invasion of Ukraine, even if the USA were to try and fix thing diplomatically and repair relations between countries. There are so many issues now with Russian paranoia over NATO Expansion the Venezuela and Guyana thing, Iran, North Korea, Belarus, there are NASA partners like the Europeans and Japanese who will want to continue sanctions on the Russians. NASA has tried to build a partnership with Artemis Accords but on the other side you have 'BRICS' cultures expanding to space, within Artemis you probably have a bunch of countries like United Arab Emirates who just do their whole stabbing the USA in the back as normal business. The Europeans and Japanese and Canadians and others do help NASA and they have interesting robotic missions but they will provide limited help, ESA/JAXA rockets used are of the old dinosaur rocket family mindset, good for their era but soon to be extinct and NASA is at risk of going from spending decades in LEO into spending decades into LLO or an uninviting Lunar surface while putting humans at great risk.

Elon Musk's Starship returns to Earth after completing landmark test flight for the first time
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech … light.html

Boeing's Starliner capsule launched in first crewed space flight
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/busines … ht-4388851

maybe some Robot AI humanoid or a Chatbot taking a selfie?

Elon Musk's xAI launches chatbot with a 'rebellious streak'
https://www.usatoday.com/videos/tech/20 … 479918007/
Musk said that Grok has an advantage over other chatbots because it has real-time access to information through the social media platform.

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2024-06-07 03:02:24)

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#1 2017-12-20 17:05:22

Success by 2030?

#2 2017-12-20 19:19:20

Re: Success by 2030?

#3 2017-12-20 19:32:45

Re: Success by 2030?

#4 2017-12-20 19:40:20

Re: Success by 2030?

#5 2017-12-20 19:42:01

Re: Success by 2030?

#6 2017-12-20 19:43:33

Re: Success by 2030?

#7 2017-12-21 00:54:29

Re: Success by 2030?

#8 2017-12-21 07:13:00

Re: Success by 2030?

#9 2017-12-22 03:05:38

Re: Success by 2030?

#10 2017-12-22 13:24:57

Re: Success by 2030?

#11 2017-12-25 11:16:10

Re: Success by 2030?

#12 2017-12-25 12:20:45

Re: Success by 2030?

#13 2017-12-25 13:57:27

Re: Success by 2030?

#14 2017-12-25 17:53:09

Re: Success by 2030?

#15 2017-12-30 13:45:09

Re: Success by 2030?

#16 2023-03-06 05:00:08

Re: Success by 2030?

#17 2024-06-07 02:56:45

Re: Success by 2030?

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