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As I said elsewhere,
The way I see space settlement being for the next several decades is similar to Antarctica and the high seas. There won't be any permanent colonies (unless Mars turns out to be trivial to proteroform...), but there will be thousands of people on Luna and Mars, and maybe other locations, working at science outposts (as in Antarctica), mining camps (like oil rigs), or hotels (akin to cruise ships). If we're lucky, these will lay the groundwork for homesteads and cities to be built.
This century, or at least most it, will be spent learning how to live off the resources available off-Earth. In the late 21st century, if we make it, there might be some small groups setting out on their own, just as we have people living aboard boats today. Before that, some wealthy people might choose to make an apartment on Luna their primary residence. I can definitely imagine Luna being Space Monaco, a playground for the rich. As costs come down, perhaps Shackleton City will grow into a true city, with all the opportunities and problems that entails.
Of course, if it turns out to be easy to proteroform Mars (provide it with enough pressure and warmth for plants to become established, say ~100mb CO2 atmosphere), then a lot of this is moot, and it becomes much easier for homesteaders to get established (no need for radiation protection for one, easy construction of greenhouses etc). I hope that's the case...
Use what is abundant and build to last
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One thing I definitely like about the way you talk about this is via comparisons to Earth. I think we often overestimate the degree to which civilization in space will be different from civilization on Earth. Fundamentally, it will be about people living in cities, dependent on technology, doing work for money. People will be people (even if there's some amount of selection bias in who chooses to go) and the laws of physics are the same.
As far as the particular industries that will sustain a space economy, it will naturally be a mixture of different things that changes over time. Tourism, financial speculation, tax avoidance, and other industries will naturally have some kind of role to play, especially at the beginning when transit costs are high, but in the long term I expect the economy to move towards mining, energy production, heavy industry, and light industry (probably in that order--the long term goal being to drop completed consumer and industrial goods at any point on Earth as desired for less than it might cost to make them here).
The viability of temporary residency in space will probably depend mostly on the cost of transportation, specifically on the cost of Earth surface-to-LEO transit. It will also depend on the transfer time and frequency. LEO to Moon is only a few days and happens pretty much all the time, for example, while Earth-to-Mars takes 6+ months and only comes once every 26 months on a minimum dV trajectory. As far as Mars is concerned, potential residents will also probably spend a few months in Earth Orbit/Cislunar Space waiting for their transfer because there probably won't be enough rockets to send everyone up right before the transfer window opens.
I could see some amount of back-and-forth (especially for executives) between Earth and the Moon, but for Mars it seems much less likely. Instead, settlements on Mars will probably be mostly permanent residents and get periodic resupply (as needed) from other places.
On the other hand, I think we might find the life support challenge to be, well, less of a challenge than it seems. If you look at the climate control system in a modern skyscraper, you'll see that there are already guidelines for heating and cooling capacity, thermostats, air quality, humidity, and all sorts of other things.
I would go so far as to say that the difference between the life support technology for a modern skyscraper and a colony in space is not huge. The biggest differences are that you need to monitor air composition more closely, and continue recycling CO2 back into Oxygen. Food production is also somewhat more difficult, or at least something that will likely be thought about as an aspect of life support. Incidentally, growing food also creates oxygen so the air composition management and food production aspects can be solved together to a significant degree.
Life support in space is also more important than on Earth. We can look to hospitals and their backup generators for a solution. Everything needs to be massively redundant and able to withstand multiple failures.
There will be a learning curve, naturally, but I don't think it's as hard a challenge as we make it out to be.
-Josh
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I don't really agree with your assessment. I think we will be well established on Mars in a few decades. Mars has virtually everything we need. With BRF cargo ships able to transport 150 tonnes a time, the development of Mars is going to be quick. Initially the Mars economy will be research-based, more like Antarctic bases,and sponsorship-based (like round the world races and mountaineering expeditions). But I can't see why it won't quickly become more or less self-sufficient.
I think people here often underestimate the pull of being the "first" to do something on Mars...the first to make a sculpture on Mars, the first to write a novel, the first to set up a radio station, the first to make a feature film on Mars, the first to manufacture plastic, the first to drive an SUV across a big crater, the first to climb Olympus Mons, the first to discover a fossil, the first to set up a cake business on Mars...Once Mars has a reasonable lifestyle to offer...with big recreational spaces, shops and sports facilities...I think a lot of people will be attracted to go live there for a few years, and maybe settle permanently once they find they like it a lot.
Taking Antarctic bases as a starting point - I think there are about 5000 people living there in high summer - we could expect perhaps 20,000 researchers being based there after a couple of decades (Mars is a lot more interesting that Antarctica) and they of course would need a lot of support staff. So just in terms of the research sector in the economy, there would probably be at least 30,000 people on Mars with maybe a bi-annual churn of 7,000 people going in an out (so requiring a fleet of perhaps 200 BFRs, including cargo craft).
I think the service workers will be making a lot of money - initially wages will need to be very high to attract the right sort of people. People will see they can work on Mars for 4 or 6 years and be set up for life back on Earth.
Once we have established that we can procreate successfully on Mars, I think we will see the Mars population grow very quickly. The settlement will encourage people to have large families, with strong financial rewards and lots of support on child care.
Last edited by louis (2017-10-04 12:01:16)
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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