What about the people plan, Elon?

louis · 2017-09-30 12:37:12

I've great faith in Musk's technical ability - his capacity for breaking down technical challenges into doable portions and finding appropriate solutions. I think with his rocket engines, fuel tank, propulsive landing and automatic docking/refuelling, the stage is set for a successful mission to Mars.

Getting to Mars is one thing but creating a thriving settlement is another thing. I think in his most recent presentation we didn't hear so much about the very American view of settlement as an enterprise undertaken by go-getting individuals interested in moving to Mars permanently and purcashing a Mars condo which seemed to be his original conception.

Is he having a rethink? I hope so. I don't think that is the right model.

It's questionable if Musk had really thought through all the issues. For every 10,000 people who might express an interest in moving permanently to Mars probably no more than one or two would have the right mix of attributes, meeting all the criteria: age, wealth, physical health, mental health, psychological resilience, psychological stability, cultural attitudes, technical ability, a good work ethic and ability to observe stringent safety standards in a vulnerable artificial environment. And what is the starting pool? I have always doubted there is much demand from people to leave Earth, leave behind friends and families permanently, to take up living in an artificial environment where you never feel the wind and rain on your face. I doubt that there are more than a few hundred people across the globe who would come close to meeting the required criteria and have the personal drive to want to migrate permanently to Mars.

A better model I think is to view the initial Mars settlement as a university and scientific research station...a sort of cross between a university campus and an Antarctic Base.

People won't be moving to live there permanently but to stay for 2-4 years while they undertake research. This will also kickstart the Mars economy as universities, space agencies and other bodies will be prepared to invest billions in such research over the first few decades.

I don't think this will hold back the settlement - it can quickly grow to a 1000 people with lots of ancillary workers spending time on Mars to provide life support, transport, coms and other services to the researchers.

Once we have worked out the best ways to grow food, provide quality environments and provide good quality housing, after a few decades, then we will be ready to think about encouraging permanent settlement.

Last edited by louis (2017-09-30 12:38:06)

SpaceNut · 2017-09-30 15:51:52

Yes there are several models that solve the transport to mars but its the landing of mass and establishing the way back off the planet that is the problem if we are not going one way and creating a permanent colony.

louis · 2017-09-30 16:24:25

Musk is clear that propellant production on Mars solves that technical problem of getting back off the surface - in fact he says we can go from the surface of Mars to earth with one BFR (no booster).

This thread is really about the people issue: how do you grow the settlement? I think the answer is create a research centre/university campus. I think that is the best way forward. It will also create less angst back on Earth. It will be more like the Antarctic approach. It will provide cover before a real self-suffiicient community is established.

SpaceNut wrote:

Yes there are several models that solve the transport to mars but its the landing of mass and establishing the way back off the planet that is the problem if we are not going one way and creating a permanent colony.

RobS · 2017-09-30 16:29:55

I don't think Musk is aiming to start a colony of people who pay to settle on Mars from the start. He needs to start a corporate settlement of employees or a scientific base of government-employed people. But once you've got dozens or hundreds of people there, maintaining essential services (and figuring out how to provide them on Mars!), then you open the colony to people who want to move.

SpaceNut · 2017-09-30 16:43:03

Lious I think RobS reply to create a research centre/university campus requires the ability to not just send down people but the equipment for these people to use to make a place for man to stay permanently as a first step with the science coming next once we have the place to live in...

louis · 2017-09-30 16:48:01

You might well be right...but he has been far less explicit about this than the technical aspects of the project. Or rather when he first started promoting his vision he spoke purely about people paying to move to Mars permanently with no intervening stage of the type you describe. And now he seems to have clammed up a bit.

I agree with what you are saying basically: establish the research facilities first because there will be thousands of institutions on Earth prepared to put up real money to fund that research. Off the back of that, the people involved in Mars research will need:

- Mars-Earth transit

- Mars-Earth coms

- Mars life support (artificial air, water supply, heating, waste management and so on)

- Habitation on Mars (habitats will need to be erected/constructed and "plumbed in").

- A range of support services/materials (cleaning, food prep and provision, medical, entertainment, clothing, souvenirs etc etc)

This will be the basis for the development of a complex ISRU Mars economy.

If Musk understands all this (as I accept he might well) he hasn't explained it yet.

I am just a bit concerned that Musk might be politically naive and start setting off political alarms on Earth in the UN and in the EU/China/Russia about what he is up to. Never underestimate the importance of politics!

RobS wrote:

I don't think Musk is aiming to start a colony of people who pay to settle on Mars from the start. He needs to start a corporate settlement of employees or a scientific base of government-employed people. But once you've got dozens or hundreds of people there, maintaining essential services (and figuring out how to provide them on Mars!), then you open the colony to people who want to move.

louis · 2017-09-30 19:23:46

As I understand it the BFR can deliver 150 tonnes to Mars. That is a huge amount of material. I think for a first mission you probably need between 5-10 tonnes per person to get started. That's enough for a minimum 15 people right off. Musk will have no problem lighting the fuse...it's really a question of whether he has a feasible plan for how to grow the settlement.

SpaceNut wrote:

Lious I think RobS reply to create a research centre/university campus requires the ability to not just send down people but the equipment for these people to use to make a place for man to stay permanently as a first step with the science coming next once we have the place to live in...

Excelsior · 2017-10-03 22:25:10

Is this the awkward moment where we are the dog who might have finally caught the car?

Is the solution to the transportation problem near enough at hand that we can start trying to figure what to do with the car?

What type social, economic, and political state do we wish to create, and what technical tools to we need to load up to make it happen?
If humanity even ready to have a branch of itself break off to inevitably complete with Earth and challenge what it means to be human?

We haven't even determined the biological nuts and bolts of sustaining the species off world.

Elon has identified the first step, finding water, and establishing a refueling capability to make the transportation system work. Some of this is going to be robotic, some manned. I think the value of unmanned scouting has been underestimated. The first BFR runs can deliver large numbers of robotic landers to drill for water, as well as delivering the much needed orbital infrastructure before committing the massive BFR landers on what is almost certain to be a one way trip to provide the vital tankage for the early refueling infrastructure.

The next step has to be establishing a primary base camp. At this point, such an operation probably more closely resembles a military expedition than an exploratory one. Sufficient power plants, habitats, greenhouses, and maintenance facilities have to be installed for perhaps a 150 personal. Secondary facilities can also be set up around the planet. I would imagine most of these structures would be prefab inflatables that are off loaded directly from landers.

Once they can maintain themselves, exploration can begin in earnest. Large scale sources of water and other industrial materials have to found and charted. Rudimentary transportation infrastructure needs to be established. Existing facilities need to be improved and fortified for the long haul.

Once you have all the locally sourced materials you need, it's time to start building a city. Larger scale industrial equipment to exploit those materials can be delivered, likely with personnel dedicated to them, probably establishing base camps of there own isolated from the primary settlement. Transportation infrastructure will likely need to be improved to move large amounts of material. Local vehicles make need to be produced.

Once the material is moving, construction can begin in earnest. It doesn't have to be terribly large. Cities on worlds without a breathable atmosphere are going to need to be very different, largely pre-planned affairs with a limited carrying capacity. When that capacity is reached, you simply start over someplace else. I recommend a grid system, with common services and cultural structures in the center, surrounded by identical sized blocks going a kilometer or two in every direction. These blocks can either feature a single large parking garage like structure with common areas and lots of room for Rover Homes, or can be split into over a dozen individual lots supporting individual multilevel structures offering industrial, commercial, agricultural, and residential space for families. This overall square is then rounded off by agricultural and industrial areas, creating a circle. All of the structures are built airtight for contingencies.

This circle is covered by layers of concentric domes, utilizing monolithic dome technology. The first is a solid concrete, or whatever makes an effective shotcrete equivalent on Mars, dome designed to protect from radiation and meteorites. The ceiling can feature a geodesic framework with screens of the outside world if morale requires. The second is only about 4-5m above the first, and is also made of solid concrete. It features a vast microponic agriculture facility built on top of the first dome, with the heavy water tanks inhabiting the level floor. The ceiling here again features a geodesic framework, this time with growlights. The atmosphere is also tailored for agricultural purposes. Finally, the outer surface is cultivated as an open air park, covered by another geodesic framework, with whatever glass equivalent can withstand the environment and provide both needed protection and a good view. It make be advantageous to install the outer, clear dome first, pressurize and heat it, and then spray the interior domes. The whole thing is designed for maybe 50 to 75 thousand people.

As construction concludes, its time to be begin peopling it. That could take several launch windows. These would be the first real colonists, families whose breadwinner is recruited for their specialty skills that will make the population self-sufficient. They would claim one of the several thousand multilevel residences, with their work space in the ground level, commercial or design above that, and residence above that. This is the point where cargo stops coming and only colonist are delivered, because everything needed is produced locally. Several objectives are pursued concurrently. We need to start building a formal transportation infrastructure, a straight line, high speed, buried maglev system for both passengers and heavy cargo, extending from the capital in grid pattern from the Capital. New cities would be built at latitudinal and longitudinal intersections about every 5 degrees across the global south. If terraforming is to occur, there is no point in building anything too large in the lower altitudes. The large squares created by the cities and maglev system, where existing resources are not being exploited, are to be dedicated to "Marsteading", where families can claim land and do whatever it is that floats their boat. This is how you get the diversity of goods and services that are the hallmark of a free society. The construction of vehicle kits that enable families to strike out on their own, exploit the local materials, and build their Marsteads will employ many. Specialty settlements around core resources will continue to grow, and connect to the global transportation systems. Finally, a space elevator should possible, and would enable the interplanetary trade of luxury goods, and free up labor and water resources devoted to spacecraft ops to development.

From here, growth would continue, though colonization would probably not be limited to Mars.

louis · 2017-10-04 02:08:06

Hi Excelsior,

I love the analogy of the dog chasing the car and then catching up with it and wondering what the hell to do next! I think you are right - we have pretty much caught up with the car, from the technical "getting there" point of view! It's now a question of "what the hell are we supposed to do with this huge thing called Mars that has virtually the same land mass as Earth?"

I agree with you we are still a way off establishing how well we can live on Mars - what will be the health effects and will we be able to procreate successfully there? I think things will turn out well but there are challenges.

I don't think the water issue is that difficult to crack. There are many parts of Mars where the surface regolith comprises something like 6% water. I think Musk is probably thinking in terms of scooping up the surface regolith and boiling off the water, rather than drilling down for water or looking for glaciers. The only problem I see is getting the robot water detectors off the Mars ship since it is going to be something like 70 feet off the ground...looks like that might require an automatic crane system, which might itself require a bit of engineering.

I don't know whether the cargo ships will be used as propellant storage. You can have inflatable tanks packed on to the cargo ships. Or you could have tanks that are put together in situ by the first humans there.

I agree a lot of the early habs will be offloaded inflatables, perhaps with provision for piling on a regolith cover to help radiation protection.

I am all in favour of making Mars ISRU independent of Earth as soon as possible but I think with Musk's model that isn't such an urgent priority because with each cargo ship he can bring in 150 tonnes of "stuff" and that is a lot! I mean I can see you could have an economic model for Mars where it gets its revenue from commercial and space agency sponsorship, university research, conducting science experiments, sale of meteorites, regolith and Mars gems plus perhaps some limited luxury goods (Mars-made items like Rolex watches) and can then use that revenue to pay for regular imports of finished goods from Earth. However whether it happens quickly or slowly Mars can and will become largely self-sufficient - an industrial-agricultural-service economy that mostly meets its own needs.

As regards transportation, bearing in mind a colony numbering in the thousands won't require huge amounts of material and it won't be such a profligate society in the way it handles resources, I think that can easily be covered by robot vehicles (electric powered, recharging at solar power stations along the way) plying cleared road trails - using the frozen surface as the roadway (in much the same way as we have ice roads on Earth that handle huge loads). They don't need to travel fast. 20 MPH will do. Even if they journey 4000 miles and take 10 days, it doesn't much matter. There won't be much requirement for air travel (probably just a few rocket hoppers to move people quickly between the central settlement and outlying mining and research posts) and obviously sea transport is not an option (though I guess if we were minded to we could create a network of covered canals).

Grid patterns for cities have always been popular and work well on plains. If Mars cities move on to more contoured ground, that may be less appropriate. I personally like more organic cities but accept that on Mars you can't have a free for all. You need for instance to have a healthy separation of all potentially explosive facilities and the living habs themselves, as any sort of explosion that pierced the pressure of the habs could be devastating. That's also a reason why you have to have lots of separated pressure environments, rather than one big such environment. Robot vehicles passing from one air lock to another will be a convenient way of getting from one part of the city to another.

One point I would make is that we could create some very pleasant earth-analogue environment in pressurised covered gullies/canyons, with trails on the canyon sides for walking and cycling, with running water and with plenty of vegetation. Light pipes can be used to enhance the amount of sunlight. You can also introduce a wide range of fauna. We can also use artworks - sculptures, hillside murals, mosaics and so on to humanise what might otherwise be a dull living environment.

Personally for the early settlement, in terms of ISRU habs, I favour cut and cover (trench with brick or steel arches, covered by regolith). We can also use surface structure composed of compressed Mars bricks and sealed with Mars cement. However, I am not getting the sense Musk will be running with that approach.

But to come back to the "people plan" - you have to make decisions about how you vet migrants to Mars whether you go for open entry or a very strict system of "elite" entrants (highly educated and resourceful)...or for something in between. I would opt for something in between but with a strong values basis as well, so that we look to people with an open and genuinely tolerant approach to living with other people.

Excelsior wrote:

Is this the awkward moment where we are the dog who might have finally caught the car?
Is the solution to the transportation problem near enough at hand that we can start trying to figure what to do with the car?
What type social, economic, and political state do we wish to create, and what technical tools to we need to load up to make it happen?
If humanity even ready to have a branch of itself break off to inevitably complete with Earth and challenge what it means to be human?
We haven't even determined the biological nuts and bolts of sustaining the species off world.
Elon has identified the first step, finding water, and establishing a refueling capability to make the transportation system work. Some of this is going to be robotic, some manned. I think the value of unmanned scouting has been underestimated. The first BFR runs can deliver large numbers of robotic landers to drill for water, as well as delivering the much needed orbital infrastructure before committing the massive BFR landers on what is almost certain to be a one way trip to provide the vital tankage for the early refueling infrastructure.
The next step has to be establishing a primary base camp. At this point, such an operation probably more closely resembles a military expedition than an exploratory one. Sufficient power plants, habitats, greenhouses, and maintenance facilities have to be installed for perhaps a 150 personal. Secondary facilities can also be set up around the planet. I would imagine most of these structures would be prefab inflatables that are off loaded directly from landers.
Once they can maintain themselves, exploration can begin in earnest. Large scale sources of water and other industrial materials have to found and charted. Rudimentary transportation infrastructure needs to be established. Existing facilities need to be improved and fortified for the long haul.
Once you have all the locally sourced materials you need, it's time to start building a city. Larger scale industrial equipment to exploit those materials can be delivered, likely with personnel dedicated to them, probably establishing base camps of there own isolated from the primary settlement. Transportation infrastructure will likely need to be improved to move large amounts of material. Local vehicles make need to be produced.
Once the material is moving, construction can begin in earnest. It doesn't have to be terribly large. Cities on worlds without a breathable atmosphere are going to need to be very different, largely pre-planned affairs with a limited carrying capacity. When that capacity is reached, you simply start over someplace else. I recommend a grid system, with common services and cultural structures in the center, surrounded by identical sized blocks going a kilometer or two in every direction. These blocks can either feature a single large parking garage like structure with common areas and lots of room for Rover Homes, or can be split into over a dozen individual lots supporting individual multilevel structures offering industrial, commercial, agricultural, and residential space for families. This overall square is then rounded off by agricultural and industrial areas, creating a circle. All of the structures are built airtight for contingencies.
This circle is covered by layers of concentric domes, utilizing monolithic dome technology. The first is a solid concrete, or whatever makes an effective shotcrete equivalent on Mars, dome designed to protect from radiation and meteorites. The ceiling can feature a geodesic framework with screens of the outside world if morale requires. The second is only about 4-5m above the first, and is also made of solid concrete. It features a vast microponic agriculture facility built on top of the first dome, with the heavy water tanks inhabiting the level floor. The ceiling here again features a geodesic framework, this time with growlights. The atmosphere is also tailored for agricultural purposes. Finally, the outer surface is cultivated as an open air park, covered by another geodesic framework, with whatever glass equivalent can withstand the environment and provide both needed protection and a good view. It make be advantageous to install the outer, clear dome first, pressurize and heat it, and then spray the interior domes. The whole thing is designed for maybe 50 to 75 thousand people.
As construction concludes, its time to be begin peopling it. That could take several launch windows. These would be the first real colonists, families whose breadwinner is recruited for their specialty skills that will make the population self-sufficient. They would claim one of the several thousand multilevel residences, with their work space in the ground level, commercial or design above that, and residence above that. This is the point where cargo stops coming and only colonist are delivered, because everything needed is produced locally. Several objectives are pursued concurrently. We need to start building a formal transportation infrastructure, a straight line, high speed, buried maglev system for both passengers and heavy cargo, extending from the capital in grid pattern from the Capital. New cities would be built at latitudinal and longitudinal intersections about every 5 degrees across the global south. If terraforming is to occur, there is no point in building anything too large in the lower altitudes. The large squares created by the cities and maglev system, where existing resources are not being exploited, are to be dedicated to "Marsteading", where families can claim land and do whatever it is that floats their boat. This is how you get the diversity of goods and services that are the hallmark of a free society. The construction of vehicle kits that enable families to strike out on their own, exploit the local materials, and build their Marsteads will employ many. Specialty settlements around core resources will continue to grow, and connect to the global transportation systems. Finally, a space elevator should possible, and would enable the interplanetary trade of luxury goods, and free up labor and water resources devoted to spacecraft ops to development.
From here, growth would continue, though colonization would probably not be limited to Mars.

Terraformer · 2017-10-04 05:07:45

If you try to vet migrants beyond what is obvious (i.e. ability to endure the journey, and has a place at a colony to go to), I'm sure someone else will start up another program without such restrictions and get all the market, so there's not really any point.

I don't think we'll be seeing large Martian cities this century. We've still got the exploration/pioneer stages (find out what's there, and how to turn it into things we need) to go. Maybe we'll find out that it's relatively easy to vaporise the CO2 with mirrors and make a ~100mb atmosphere, opening up Mars to homesteading. Or maybe it will be a lot more like Luna than we think, just as Luna's turned out to be more like Mars than we believed.

SpaceNut · 2017-10-04 19:48:35

The analogy still fits for the SLS once its flying as well but at a much large cost per flight. Sure the state design payload is leaps and bounds for the BFR but thats just materials, mass, production costs that are driving what we are percieving for Space X unlike the cost plus contracting that we have all come to call workfare for those that NASA is using..

louis · 2017-10-05 01:12:51

A lot of this depends on the timeline. If there is already a self-governing community on Mars, why shouldn't they control access to Mars? The big question is how long Space X has a monopoly on human-rated flight to Mars.

Terraformer wrote:

If you try to vet migrants beyond what is obvious (i.e. ability to endure the journey, and has a place at a colony to go to), I'm sure someone else will start up another program without such restrictions and get all the market, so there's not really any point.
I don't think we'll be seeing large Martian cities this century. We've still got the exploration/pioneer stages (find out what's there, and how to turn it into things we need) to go. Maybe we'll find out that it's relatively easy to vaporise the CO2 with mirrors and make a ~100mb atmosphere, opening up Mars to homesteading. Or maybe it will be a lot more like Luna than we think, just as Luna's turned out to be more like Mars than we believed.

Terraformer · 2017-10-05 03:55:53

If I set up a seastead on the high seas, should I be able to deny access to everyone else?

A colony can control access to itself. That doesn't give them the right to deny the use of the entire planet to everyone else.

Oldfart1939 · 2017-10-05 09:06:44

As much as I respect Elon, he seems to be overlooking a number of critical steps require for his dream of Mars colonization to come true. Maybe I'm just too much of a belt and braces man, but IMHO, there needs be an intermediate proof of concept step. One with a crew no larger that 12--capable of a return w/o any ISRU fuel production. I have become increasingly skeptical of this Grossartig plan of his. In order to learn a few more things about dep space, maybe he SHOULD include the moon in his stepwise planning?

louis · 2017-10-05 10:16:10

Isn't he effectively doing that?

They begin building the BFR next year. They already seem to have the fuel tank design sorted.

How long will it take to construct? I am guessing a minimum of 2.5 years if he's hoping to launch cargo to Mars in 2022. I am presuming Space X have learnt a lot about rocket design and cargo storage over the last few years and will be on top of a lot of the fundamentals. I would think that as soon as he has working BFRs coming off the production line he will be testing for orbital tourism and also fly-by lunar tourism, to be followed up by lunar landings. So I guess lunar tourism will provide a proving ground for flights to Mars.

Oldfart1939 wrote:

As much as I respect Elon, he seems to be overlooking a number of critical steps require for his dream of Mars colonization to come true. Maybe I'm just too much of a belt and braces man, but IMHO, there needs be an intermediate proof of concept step. One with a crew no larger that 12--capable of a return w/o any ISRU fuel production. I have become increasingly skeptical of this Grossartig plan of his. In order to learn a few more things about dep space, maybe he SHOULD include the moon in his stepwise planning?

GW Johnson · 2017-10-05 11:20:26

Well, the reduced-size BFR design concept has about the same first stage engine count as Falcon-Heavy, and it's about the same size as the old Falcon-XX concept. We'll soon see how well high engine count works out. It didn't work out so well for the Russian N-1 moon rocket, but that was a long time ago. Things and technologies change.

As for going from Falcon-Heavy to BFR in sizes, that's about a factor of 3 in terms of weights. As is the step from Falcon-9 to Falcon-Heavy. The step from Atlas to Saturn-1 was about that big, and so was the step from Saturn-1 to Saturn-5. So I kinda think it might be doable, now that BFR is a bit smaller than it was as presented at Guadalajara.

I rather suspect the mission plans for Mars are as yet a bit fuzzy. The main effort is/will be going into getting the rockets and the spacecraft flying. As I have pointed out before, when Elon says he will do something (and building the rocket is what he says he will do, not colonizing Mars all by himself), he usually gets it done. Just not as fast as he hoped, by a factor of 1.5 to 2 on schedule interval.

That being said, I wouldn't read too much at this time into projected plans for this or that mission on Mars with the BFR and spacecraft.

GW

Last edited by GW Johnson (2017-10-05 11:21:00)

louis · 2017-10-05 15:57:00

Better to have targets rather than no targets, and - when it comes to important endeavours - better to have ambitious targets than unambitious ones.

We have the Apollo template - basically they got to the Moon from a standing start (after the fire disaster) in 5 years (into lunar orbit that is) if I recall correctly. An incredible achievement and they had to achieve a lot of firsts along the way, helped by only the most basic computer technology.

As I understand it, the propellant tank has been developed, the Raptor engine is close to final development, and presumably Space X now have a good understanding of external materials, cargo holds and the like. They are close to perfecting propulsive landing judging by recent successes.

This is in reality a multi-faceted interconnected project...he is looking to corner markets in ISS supply, satellite launches, orbital tourism, lunar tourism and superfast aerial passenger services on Earth, as well as establish human civilisation on Mars. It's an astonishing range of targets but they are indeed all interconnected and pursuing them together makes huge sense.

If Musk pulls this off I think it will be an understatement to call him the Edison of our age, as I have previously. We will have to summon up a greater superlative.

What other key technological challenges does Space X have to overcome? Life support in transit and on the Mars surface. Radiation protection for humans. Microgravity disease or debilitation. Accurate landing. Cargo unloading. Water sourcing/production. Propellant production on the Mars surface. Solar energy production on the Mars surface (not too daunting a challenge I think). Inflatable habs for the Mars surface. Launch from the Mars surface. Comms throughout the mission.

I am optimistic - I think Musk and Space X have done a lot of learning on the job, which explains the earlier missed targets. I feel everything is now in place and can be brought together expeditiously.

GW Johnson wrote:

Well, the reduced-size BFR design concept has about the same first stage engine count as Falcon-Heavy, and it's about the same size as the old Falcon-XX concept. We'll soon see how well high engine count works out. It didn't work out so well for the Russian N-1 moon rocket, but that was a long time ago. Things and technologies change.
As for going from Falcon-Heavy to BFR in sizes, that's about a factor of 3 in terms of weights. As is the step from Falcon-9 to Falcon-Heavy. The step from Atlas to Saturn-1 was about that big, and so was the step from Saturn-1 to Saturn-5. So I kinda think it might be doable, now that BFR is a bit smaller than it was as presented at Guadalajara.
I rather suspect the mission plans for Mars are as yet a bit fuzzy. The main effort is/will be going into getting the rockets and the spacecraft flying. As I have pointed out before, when Elon says he will do something (and building the rocket is what he says he will do, not colonizing Mars all by himself), he usually gets it done. Just not as fast as he hoped, by a factor of 1.5 to 2 on schedule interval.
That being said, I wouldn't read too much at this time into projected plans for this or that mission on Mars with the BFR and spacecraft.
GW

SpaceNut · 2017-10-05 17:54:01

One thing about a ship from earth orbit to mars and back is how much mass are we bring for the complete trip and stay on the surface as that eats into what we can bring for tools for science and other such means to make it so that man can survive on mars to stay.
The only reason for the first few missions to be able to return is for health check ups for the crew, and for those that are to ill to stay as only the heartiest should be staying once the first few missions risk factors are measured.
The last thing that will be an issue is hold tanks for waste disposal on mars surface as we will not want to polute the planet before we are able to get mars to give up its secrets....

GW Johnson · 2017-10-05 18:49:54

Look, either you are willing to ante-up whatever is required to go to a place like Mars, or you are not.

With the recent-decade's drop in launch costs to LEO, plus the recent 2 decades' experience at orbital assembly, there is a lot less concern about needing to send large masses to Mars to ensure mission success. Where we are in 2017 is NOT where we were in 1995.

It is way past time to face up to the new realities. Min thrown mass is NOT the constraint anymore for manned travel to Mars. With respect to government-sponsored trips, an addiction to corporate welfare IS the constraint now, and has been for 1-2 decades now.

Private concerns that are credible do not (yet) suffer from that addiction.

GW

Last edited by GW Johnson (2017-10-05 18:50:34)

louis · 2017-10-06 03:55:41

I think we can pyrolisise waste, and vent as gases. Any pollution of the planet would be absolutely minimal, restrict to some gas and not include bio products.

With at least 300 tonnes of cargo available for the first pioneers, as I call them (how many? - not more than 20 I would have thought). With that sort of tonnage allowance you can do a lot. You can certainly take a full medicine cabinet. You can take a sophisticated gym for work outs. Perhaps you could take the parts for assembly of a 1 G centrifuge machine to be used in emergency, should the need arise. However, I don't think you would just throw crew untested at Mars. The pioneer selection would be very strict and include long periods in zero G, to test people's ability to withstand that (it's clear that there is a wide range of reactions with some people being able to return quickly to full activity after long periods in zero G - those are the ones you want).

SpaceNut wrote:

One thing about a ship from earth orbit to mars and back is how much mass are we bring for the complete trip and stay on the surface as that eats into what we can bring for tools for science and other such means to make it so that man can survive on mars to stay.
The only reason for the first few missions to be able to return is for health check ups for the crew, and for those that are to ill to stay as only the heartiest should be staying once the first few missions risk factors are measured.
The last thing that will be an issue is hold tanks for waste disposal on mars surface as we will not want to polute the planet before we are able to get mars to give up its secrets....

elderflower · 2017-10-06 04:37:21

Louis is right that we could pyrolyse waste, but if, as the outpost expands, we want to do agriculture, the waste will be too valuable as a soil conditioner and would need to be composted and mixed with mars sand/dust for a growth medium. We therefore will need to guarantee that it can't get out of the greenhouse until we have assured ourselves that the planet is in fact sterile.

louis · 2017-10-06 06:18:13

It's difficult to see how you could avoid some contamination - completely closed systems on Earth have proved extremely difficult to manage. Basically, you need to have some venting and with venting you might well get microbes escaping on air. I suppose one could superheat and irradiate the vented air? That might provide some sort of solution. Also, construction could be another source of contamination. However, contamination has probably already occurred: it is pretty likely our Mars rovers and landers have already carried Earth microbes to Mars but the chances of any of them surviving are pretty bleak - unless an extremophile hitched a ride!

elderflower wrote:

Louis is right that we could pyrolyse waste, but if, as the outpost expands, we want to do agriculture, the waste will be too valuable as a soil conditioner and would need to be composted and mixed with mars sand/dust for a growth medium. We therefore will need to guarantee that it can't get out of the greenhouse until we have assured ourselves that the planet is in fact sterile.

elderflower · 2017-10-06 08:21:10

Well you can't have humans without symbiotic microorganisms so the same problem applies to the hab.

Oldfart1939 · 2017-10-06 09:39:33

About the planetary protection shtick: we simply avoid bringing pathogens from Earth. No vectors (mosquitos, flies, ticks, roaches, etc.) through a very strict quarantine procedure prior to departure. No pneumococci bacteria, no tuberculosis, etc. We avoid health problems on Mars through prevention. Only allowed bacteria would be found in the normal bowel flora of humans and other creatures. Yogurt type bacteria. The females would love a world without mice and spiders.

RobertDyck · 2017-10-06 10:45:29

The long term goal is to terraform Mars, so that means introducing all sorts of organisms. Scientists would like to look for extant organisms first. Obsession over that will exclude MCP spacesuits because MCP means you have nothing but fabric between you and vacuum. So dead skin will shed as dust, wherever astronauts go. In fact, notice new Z-2 and PXS suits have rear entry hatch compatible with suitport. That avoids contamination being tracked out through an airlock. Planetary Protection people won't even want us dirty humans to even touch the outside of a suit. The ultimate conclusion from this thinking is only robotic exploration, no humans at all.

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