Mars in 100 years' time.

louis · 2017-06-14 18:41:02

Just wondered if people would like to share their views on Mars in one hundred years’ time…so, how exacly might a Mars civilisation look in 2117.

My vision is of several settlements across the planet but there will be one central, large settlement – the capital if you like. This will actually be the site of the first base, and I would favour that being in the north east section of Chryse Planitia. It will likely be named after a significant figure from the history of Mars exploration. Perhaps it is now called Sagan City.

The governance of Mars is subject to an international treaty and UN Security Council resolution agreed in 2051, similar to the Antarctic treaty which prevents that continent being made part of national territory or a location for weaponry. The treaty specifically provides that Mars settlements must be registered with the UN and will be self-governing members of the Mars Union. The Mars Union is the loose federation to which all settlements must belong and which has a number of responsibilities e.g. migration control, trade with Earth, maintaining the currency, interplanetary transport facilities, communications with Earth, preserving peace on Mars, and agreeing environmental protection measures. It collects no taxes from the settlements but is funded by a levy on all financial transactions between Mars and Earth. All settlements are required to honour the Mars Union Charter which is based on free movement of people, a single currency , no internal customs barriers and non-militarised democratic government for settlements.

Representation on the Mars Union governing counci (50 seats) is 50% on the basis of 5 votes per settlement and 50% by population.
All long term residents of Mars are required to be citizens of one (and only one) settlement. There are currently 5 settlements on the planet. Each has a number of satellite settlements engaged in mining, scientific research, energy production and so on.

Culturally, Mars has a very American flavour. The main language spoken is English with an American accent. All races from Earth are well represented among the people. There are some bases though, such as the Chinese base in the Southern Hemisphere which are more non-English speaking. Virtually every permanent resident on Mars is educated to postgraduate level.

A Mars Time Protocol was agreed by the Mars Union in 2067. The Mars orbital year of 669 sols is divided into four “seasons” of 160 sols further subdivided into four “terms” of 40 sols, which are themselves subdivided into four periods of 10 sols (called “tensols”). The Mars orbital year is known as MY (standing for “Mars Year”, pronounced, em-why). MY1 is dated to the (earth) year of the Viking Landing (1976). 100 Years on it is now something like 75.3.4.2.3. So it’s Mars Year 75, season 3 (Autumn), fourth term of the season, second tensol of the fourth term, third sol of the second tensol. Sounds confusing to begin with but Mars residents are adept at reading the last four digits to get a fix on the date. 1123 – early on in the year…4440 – last day of the year (0 stands for 10) before the 29 sols of the winter festive period. Triple 4-0 was a popular Mars-produced film that proved successful on Earth as well.

Festivals on Mars are an important element of life on Mars. They help create a sense of community. They are celebrated in schools, in public places, online, and in people’s homes.

The 29 sols of the Winter Festival period is divided into 14 sols celebrating Mars’s history, a central sol (The Day of Light), and 14 sols celebrating Mars’ future with particular emphasis on terraformation. During the rest of the Mars year, each seasonal first day is marked as a special holiday. There are a number of other special days: Musk Memorial Day, Foundation Day (celebrating the original landing of humans), Women’s Day, Science and Education Day, Children’s Day, Men’s Day, Harvest Day and Terraformation Day.

The road system is now quite developed on Mars but the look of Mars roads is quite different to those on Earth. There are no tarmac (metalled surface) roads. The roads are created from cleared paths and flattened frozen regolith. The roads have kerb markings and transponders to allow driverless vehicles to function.

On Mars “all roads lead to Sagan City” which has the only interplanetary Spaceport. South of the city are the great Southern Solar Fields covering 100s of square kilometres. These provide the bulk of the city’s power, although more recently methane brought from the methane capture zone in the southern hemisphere has been making inroads into solar energy’s monopoly as a primary source. Sagan City also has a geothermal facility providing heating and hot water.

Sagan City enjoys other advantages. It is the seat of federal government and the Mars Union administration is located there. Tourists spend most of their stay on Mars based there. It is the home of the Harvard University on Mars, Oxford University of Mars and the Mars Advanced Studies Institute (MASI) . MASI was founded in 2088 and primarily serves students from Mars.

One of the main arterial roads is that running to Musk City to the west of Sagan City, located between Olympus Mons and Valles Marineris. There the first solar power satellite system has been trialled using a laser beam to transfer power to the ground.
Plans are under way to build a hyperloop from Sagan City to Musk City. The system will eventually circumscribe the whole planet.

The Mars economy is growing at about 15% per year. Initially, following the first landing of humans by the Space X-led Mars Consortium in 2028, growth was slow. But population has risen at a pace from 100 permanent residents in 2051, to 1000 in 2069, 10,000 in 2089 and is now approaching the 100,000 milestone. There are also about 30,000 tourists, scientists, consultants and gap year students. Sagan City, the capital, has a population of 67,000.

There are now 15,000 Marsborn children on the planet. The first child was born on Mars in 2095 and was the subject of a media storm both on Mars and on Earth. Foetuses are developed in artificial placenta placed in 1G centrifuges that mimic Earth gravity and normal pregnancy , to ensure healthy development.

There is a currency on Mars, called the “Ares”. It is a strong currency, much valued by investors on Earth. It is an entirely digital currency.

Mars is no longer just a dry reddish dustbowl. All around Sagan City you will find huge farm domes with a wide variety of crops and park domes which replicate the fauna and flora of Earth. These look quite stunning. A very popular leisure environment are the numerous “covered canyons” – narrow gorges that have been covered over with special transparent panels so that the whole gorge can be pressurised and fill with Earth analogue air. In the canyons streams run, and there is lush vegetation. People can walk for miles along the paths that snake along or up and down the canyons. There are pool facilities located within them, places where people can hang out at the “beach”. The largest located near Valles Marineris is 700 metres long, up to 50 metres wide and 150 metres at its greatest height.

The Mars Union has finally drawn up its 1000 year Terraformation Plan. Within 100 years it is envisaged people will be able to walk across Mars in a low pressure CO2 environment.

What do visitors from Earth first notice about Mars? Well things like the absence of clouds in the sky. The good quality of the food grown in perfect conditions in the farm domes. The absence of paper…people on Earth still have magazines, newspapers , and the like. Few objects in the sky (whereas on Earth the sky is crowded with drones and personal air vehicles).

Crime on Mars is virtually unknown. In Sagan City, there are two classes of crime. The first is “Infractions” – For exmaple, common assault, inebriation in a public place, failure to follow safety procedures (but not immediately endangering life). Infractions may be punished by fines commensurate with income on a sliding scale. Then there are “Unlawful Acts”. All unlawful acts – covering a wide range of offences such as murder, endangering life (e.g. through tampering with life support equipment or failure to follow safety procedures), failure to pay infraction fine, and major assault - have the mandatory punishment of permanent exile to Earth. Committing more than two infractions in five years is also considered an unlawful Act.

Land property cannot be owned on Mars. It is licensed to individuals. It is not inherited by children although in children may be prioritised to succeed to a licence.

Socially, there is quite a divide between “homesteaders” and “city dwellers”. Homesteaders (a minority, probably no more than 10%) live away from the main settlement. They may have their own farm domes and aiming for self-sufficiency. There is no real class system as seen on Earth. Most people mix in the same social circles. There is a small elite – those involved in high level management in Space X, the Mars Consortium and the Universities – who have the most influence over key decisions about how the settlements should develop. But their lifestyle is not essentially any different from the rest of the population.

Sagan City is the main industrial city on Mars. It produces steel, plastics, glass, 3D printers, industrial and domestic robots, home goods and furnishings, life support equipment, plumbing and construction materials and equipment, rocket fuel, rockets, solar panels, and methane generators, textiles. It is also the biggest food producer on the planet. It is the HQ for Space X, the Mars Consortium and a number of Earth-based companies.

Musk City is the centre for Rolex Watch production. Mars Rolex Watches, bring in revenue of $500,000,000 to Mars. Musk City is also renowned for its production of jewelry, textiles and other luxury goods for export.

The breakdown of Mars economic activity is:

- Energy production 16%
- Life support 13%
- Manufacturing 16%
- Scientific research 5%
- Agriculture 20%
- Education 14%
- Arts leisure and other services 16%

Mars has a healthy trade balance with Earth. It has huge invisible earnings through sponsorship deals. It earns millions every year providing life support for Earth-financed scientific expeditions and for Earth university centres on Mars. It has a healthy export sector – exporting Rolex watches, meteorites, regoliths and rare gems. It provides computer services for Earth based agencies eg digital storage of the whole of the Library of Congress collection.

Sagan City is the main centre for arts on Mars, boasting a huge domed sculpture park and many exposed exterior statues, a large gallery for visual arts, cinema, and theatre. It is also the main centre for sports. Basketball and badminton are the most popular sports, reflecting Mars’s history…in the earliest days, room for sports facilities was limited. However, 5-a-side football is gaining in popularity.

Medically speaking it has been found that most people adapt well to Mars as long as they regularly wear the 1G suits that mimic earth gravity. Most people on Mars take supplements to encourage bone growth and deal with other deficiencies. People also have to take “safe virus medicine” to ensure their immune systems remain healthily “stressed”, so that they can counter any pathogens brought from Earth. Everyone on Mars has a monthly medical check. The Mars Consortium maintains the Mars-wide health service, which is paid for by the individual Mars settlements on behalf of their citizens. Generally speaking, Mars residents are far more healthy than their Earth cousins. Death on Mars is now a reality, as people enter old age. Medical services on Mars are generally good but some of the more expensive and complex treaments available on Earth are not obtainable on Mars.

Paper is almost unseen on Mars and there are no hard copy newspapers and magazines. However, online news and magazines are flourishing. The leading online news source is The Aresian . The Mars Consortium runs a TV and radio service – Mars TVR that is widely accessed by the people of Mars.

How wealthy are people on Mars? Difficult to say. On an Ares-Dollar conversion, very wealthy. But in terms of access to goods and services, the people of Mars have far less access to goods and services than on Earth. On the other hand, most people have free housing and free health services. They have access to good quality food. But they pay very high prices for clothing, eating out and anything imported from Earth.

RobS · 2017-06-14 20:40:23

I don't think people on Mars will entirely avoid the terrestrial calendar. First, they will constantly be in touch with people on Earth: relatives who have birthdays, colleagues, business partners, etc.--so they will need to keep a calendar that follows the Gregorian calendar. The easiest way to do that is to use a standard Gregorian calendar and drop about a day at the end of some months to make up for the fact that the sol is 39 minutes longer than a day (30 days is equal to about 29.1 sols). There will be no months with 31 days, for example, so July 30 will be followed by August 1. The other reason is because a certain fraction of the Martian population will be religious. Quite a few NASA astronauts are members of churches and run Bible study classes; many astronauts returning from the moon had a spiritual experience. People will want a seven-day week so that their Sunday (Sunsol?) will come along every seven sols. Jews and Muslims will also want to keep track of their Sabbaths.

louis · 2017-06-15 05:48:54

You're probably right Rob! I partly threw that in just because I enjoy messing around with the time division.

Remember, though that Muslims don't use the Gregorian calendar. They have a lunar year of about 11 months (in Gregorian terms), which is why their festivals like Ramadan keep moving around the Gregorian calendar. For the original followers of Islam, based in Arabia, the changing of the seasons was not such a dramatic affair as it is in temperate Europe, where our calendar really originated. The fact that Muslims get by in the modern world effectively using two radically different calendars shows it can be done.

Whilst your solution is quite ingenious, it does mean that the Mars calendar will be different from Earth but at the same time confusingly similar. So, as the month progresses, it is increasingly the case that the date on Earth and Mars will actually be different won't it? I guess though you can say there is a similar issue on Earth with the international dateline ie we don't just use a universal time.

My feeling is that the new citizens of Mars will want their own calendar. Their sol can never be the same as an Earth day, and I think there is a natural urge to mark the orbit around the sun, albeit seasonal variations on Mars are not quite as dramatic as on Earth.

RobS wrote:

I don't think people on Mars will entirely avoid the terrestrial calendar. First, they will constantly be in touch with people on Earth: relatives who have birthdays, colleagues, business partners, etc.--so they will need to keep a calendar that follows the Gregorian calendar. The easiest way to do that is to use a standard Gregorian calendar and drop about a day at the end of some months to make up for the fact that the sol is 39 minutes longer than a day (30 days is equal to about 29.1 sols). There will be no months with 31 days, for example, so July 30 will be followed by August 1. The other reason is because a certain fraction of the Martian population will be religious. Quite a few NASA astronauts are members of churches and run Bible study classes; many astronauts returning from the moon had a spiritual experience. People will want a seven-day week so that their Sunday (Sunsol?) will come along every seven sols. Jews and Muslims will also want to keep track of their Sabbaths.

Dave_Duca · 2017-06-15 10:47:47

In One Hundred Years Time....
Our pathetic Earth will be so wrapped in self-inflicted righteousness, that a new faction will rise, begging to
depart this world for a fresh virgin start.
Far beyond Kim Stanley Robinson's socially contaminated journals of human-ape, ala: future-tense.

- The Visionaries see this adventure as an answer to Extinction Event Integrity.
- Politicians' view this as "Leverage of Wealth versus Class of Citizen".
- The Millennial Snowflakes embrace this as an extension of their "individuality"
- Religion becomes a Day Care Center for Families Left Behind.
- The Final Carbon Foot-Print damages present Earthers' into the new age of hatred for Mars.
- News Media sharpens their wicks and assumes control of trend direction.

And... oh look... we've totally forgotten yet another franchise possibility of: Pure Martian Soda Pop or Aerian Seltzer Water. or... pardon the pun... "Martisian Spring Water"....
This ought to put the Millennial Hipster Crowd, just barking for more, yeah?

I do not "thinkie thinkie" this.
These things will happen first and foremost due to the lack of education quotas & natural interests.

Yes.... some "intangible assets" contain key values to future marketable upward trends.

Last edited by Dave_Duca (2017-06-15 11:10:13)

louis · 2017-06-16 18:25:06

Water's a bit too mass heavy I think...but I am sure there will be a very limited market for Mars water, if only among the scientific community.

Dave_Duca wrote:

In One Hundred Years Time....
Our pathetic Earth will be so wrapped in self-inflicted righteousness, that a new faction will rise, begging to
depart this world for a fresh virgin start.
Far beyond Kim Stanley Robinson's socially contaminated journals of human-ape, ala: future-tense.
- The Visionaries see this adventure as an answer to Extinction Event Integrity.
- Politicians' view this as "Leverage of Wealth versus Class of Citizen".
- The Millennial Snowflakes embrace this as an extension of their "individuality"
- Religion becomes a Day Care Center for Families Left Behind.
- The Final Carbon Foot-Print damages present Earthers' into the new age of hatred for Mars.
- News Media sharpens their wicks and assumes control of trend direction.
And... oh look... we've totally forgotten yet another franchise possibility of: Pure Martian Soda Pop or Aerian Seltzer Water. or... pardon the pun... "Martisian Spring Water"....
This ought to put the Millennial Hipster Crowd, just barking for more, yeah?
I do not "thinkie thinkie" this.
These things will happen first and foremost due to the lack of education quotas & natural interests.
Yes.... some "intangible assets" contain key values to future marketable upward trends.

Terraformer · 2017-06-17 15:43:41

My vision for Mars, as part of the Three Civilised Worlds (the others being Terra and Luna - there are bases on others, but no real colonies):

Governance - very little. There *is* a Martian Supreme Court (or rather, courts), part of the Solar Courts, but it is a very limited basic law which they judge according to. This law is enforced by Marshals (Martials? ), who will knock on the airlock of your homestead politely if they have reasonable suspicion you are breaking the basic law (say, because you're running a death cult), and impolitely if you refuse. Mostly, though, the towns and homesteads of Mars govern themselves - and only themselves. If you want to extend your town, you have to actually extend your town by developing (i.e. building habs on) the territory you want.

Environment - Mars is a much more hospitable place than it was when humans first arrived, but that's not saying much. The ground is still almost entirely frozen, though during the summer near the equator streams will run. The atmosphere is thick enough for people to forgo counter-pressure suits. A tundra ecosystem, engineered to extra hardiness, is developing, and there is hope of producing significantly more methane to warm the planet further.

Settlements - the planet is dominated by small towns, most of which would scarcely be called villages back home on Terra, and homesteads run by those foolhardy/brave enough to try settling Mars with less than a dozen people at hand to help in an emergency. It is a planet very early on in it's settlement stage. There is some trade between the towns, but they produce the vast majority of their goods - and what they don't produce, nearly all of it comes from Terra via Mars' one city, home of it's spaceport and seat of the Mars Development Corporation, which runs a network of trading posts across Mars to distribute essential goods and provide services which the towns could not provide on their own. The roadways are still crude, creating by sweeping debris out of the way and running over it with large tracked vehicles.

As the planet matures, so does it's terraforming, ecosystem, and towns. It becomes a planet dominated by a genetically engineered boreal forest, home to countless small cities, each with it's own culture derived from the culture of the initial settlers and influenced by their experiences on Mars. The trade routes have been improved, with many cities being connected by canals. It is still, however, very much a wild planet, in contrast to the refinery and decadence of the Lunar megalopolis...

louis · 2017-06-17 16:57:38

I think you are right about the triorbic nature of our future human civilisation: Moon, Mars and Earth all have their part to play. Getting human civilisation beyond those three spheres will prove tricky but possible. Mars will be a launch pad for outer solar system exploration.

I would hope that the people who lead Mars colonisation support self-government being placed at the lowest possible level, as in Switzerland. Musk seems sympathetic to the ideal of self-government, which is good at least.

However, given the nature of modern communications, I don't think the idea of isolated homesteaders is really a runner. Just take something like domestic violence...how do you handle that in your scenario? Do you just allow it? If you don't, then you have to accept that there will be an intrusive bureaucracy behind the intervention. That's just the way things are. One thing though, you find much lower levels of crime and domestic abuse within populations that are highly educated. I think the Mars settlers will be highly educated and so the amount of intervention will be minimal.

Regarding the environment, sounds like you think terraformation is quite advanced already in 2117 if we can wander around in counter-pressure suits.

I think the idea of "trading post" type settlements dominated by a single dominating city is quite plausible. I think it depends whether there is a real "homesteader" demand. If there is, then Musk's idea of human settlement may take off. I remain a bit sceptical about that. I think the austere conditions on Mars will cause people to congregate together in cities.

I agree with you about roadways...why would you bother with more sophisticated road systems, if you can deliver a good transport system by debris-removal and flattening of the surface?

Yes, I also agree that while the Moon might turn into a rich person's playground, Mars will require a degree of sincere commitment that will be the basis for a good civilisation.

What could be more exciting than living in that time when the terraformation effort finally bears fruit and you can leave your pressurised dome, and begin exploring in the open this new world, breathing in lungfuls of fresh air, planting your feet where no human has been before and deciding where you would like to live! It's not a fantasy - it's a dream, one that will be realised.

Terraformer wrote:

My vision for Mars, as part of the Three Civilised Worlds (the others being Terra and Luna - there are bases on others, but no real colonies):
Governance - very little. There *is* a Martian Supreme Court (or rather, courts), part of the Solar Courts, but it is a very limited basic law which they judge according to. This law is enforced by Marshals (Martials? ), who will knock on the airlock of your homestead politely if they have reasonable suspicion you are breaking the basic law (say, because you're running a death cult), and impolitely if you refuse. Mostly, though, the towns and homesteads of Mars govern themselves - and only themselves. If you want to extend your town, you have to actually extend your town by developing (i.e. building habs on) the territory you want.
Environment - Mars is a much more hospitable place than it was when humans first arrived, but that's not saying much. The ground is still almost entirely frozen, though during the summer near the equator streams will run. The atmosphere is thick enough for people to forgo counter-pressure suits. A tundra ecosystem, engineered to extra hardiness, is developing, and there is hope of producing significantly more methane to warm the planet further.
Settlements - the planet is dominated by small towns, most of which would scarcely be called villages back home on Terra, and homesteads run by those foolhardy/brave enough to try settling Mars with less than a dozen people at hand to help in an emergency. It is a planet very early on in it's settlement stage. There is some trade between the towns, but they produce the vast majority of their goods - and what they don't produce, nearly all of it comes from Terra via Mars' one city, home of it's spaceport and seat of the Mars Development Corporation, which runs a network of trading posts across Mars to distribute essential goods and provide services which the towns could not provide on their own. The roadways are still crude, creating by sweeping debris out of the way and running over it with large tracked vehicles.
As the planet matures, so does it's terraforming, ecosystem, and towns. It becomes a planet dominated by a genetically engineered boreal forest, home to countless small cities, each with it's own culture derived from the culture of the initial settlers and influenced by their experiences on Mars. The trade routes have been improved, with many cities being connected by canals. It is still, however, very much a wild planet, in contrast to the refinery and decadence of the Lunar megalopolis...

Last edited by louis (2017-06-17 16:59:29)

Terraformer · 2017-06-18 01:44:49

I don't see Luna as really going through a settler stage. I view colonisation as having four steps - exploration (seeing what's there, bringing everything you need with you), pioneer (establishing a settlement using equipment you brought, since you're the first ones there), settlement (new settlements are established using the existing infrastructure base, but you're otherwise on your own and have to produce most things yourselves), and immigration (you can theoretically just turn up with the clothes on your back and get a job and apartment). Mars is conducive to settlements, but Luna is not. In my view, the Lunar colony will grow by targeting the super rich, at least initially - basically an orbital Monaco - and then using their money to pay for the importation of workers and the construction of additional apartment buildings and farms. So it would pretty much skip the settlement stage and go straight to immigration.

Whereas Mars, whilst still hostile to human life, is far more conducive to settlement. Volatiles aren't limited to a small area near the polar regions, and the nights are much shorter, so food production is going to be simpler. It has the prospect of being semi-terraformed. It offers us the chance to have multiple new civilisations spread across the surface.

Venus, on the other hand... when we get around to colonising it, I see it as being a planet dominated by mobile villages, a consequence of the lack of inhabitable land. The needs of airborne structures will dictate lots of small settlements rather than a single large one, and they won't stay in one place.

Antius · 2017-06-18 14:04:35

As far as Elon Musks ITS business model is concerned, Luna has some very strong advantages over Mars as a first colonisation target.

The first and largest advantage is its closeness to Earth. This would allow the space ship to be reused once every several days rather than once every two years. That is clearly a huge economic advantage, as you get a lot more out of each ship. You can also get away with taking far less consumables and providing less cabin space, as people will only be on the ship for 3 days. So, a lot more people carried per trip and a lot more trips per year. If the ticket price is the same, a lunar transport system would be hundreds of times more profitable.

Secondly, with a lunar based target, a lot of the propellant used to refuel the ships in orbit (all of the oxygen) can be sourced from the moon. That reduces the number of tankers that you need. Transfer of inert cargo can rely on solar electric propulsion. The sun of course has over twice the energy flux in the Earth-moon system. Much of the surface construction on the moon can be carried out via teleoperated robots controlled from Earth. Lastly, a moon colony is far more useful in the development of facilities and colonies in high Earth orbit.

Whilst Mars is a more interesting place with more abundant resources, it is too far away to function as a human colonisation target at present technology sets. That said, the apparent lack of mineral resources on the moon really makes it far less appealing.

Last edited by Antius (2017-06-18 14:19:44)

Terraformer · 2017-06-18 15:16:20

Well, I'm thinking Luna will have a population of the super-wealthy, and later the merely very wealthy, that travel between Luna and Terra at least a couple of times a year and have a source of wealth that doesn't require them to be present in person, at least most of the time. That would grow out of the initial hotel operations, with the addition of an apartment building. As prices come down (ticket prices of $200k return?), more people will be able to move to the growing Shackleton City.

louis · 2017-06-18 15:37:22

Mars is...too far away to function as a human colonisation target at present technology sets.

Really? Really?? Really???

Thankfully we don't have to argue the point, we just have to await Musk honing the present technology and getting humans to Mars. ISRU energy, radiation protection, space medicine, rocket technology, orbital assembly, hab construction, water recycling, life support technology and Mars mapping are all well advanced. All we need is focus and money.

Antius wrote:

As far as Elon Musks ITS business model is concerned, Luna has some very strong advantages over Mars as a first colonisation target.
The first and largest advantage is its closeness to Earth. This would allow the space ship to be reused once every several days rather than once every two years. That is clearly a huge economic advantage, as you get a lot more out of each ship. You can also get away with taking far less consumables and providing less cabin space, as people will only be on the ship for 3 days. So, a lot more people carried per trip and a lot more trips per year. If the ticket price is the same, a lunar transport system would be hundreds of times more profitable.
Secondly, with a lunar based target, a lot of the propellant used to refuel the ships in orbit (all of the oxygen) can be sourced from the moon. That reduces the number of tankers that you need. Transfer of inert cargo can rely on solar electric propulsion. The sun of course has over twice the energy flux in the Earth-moon system. Much of the surface construction on the moon can be carried out via teleoperated robots controlled from Earth. Lastly, a moon colony is far more useful in the development of facilities and colonies in high Earth orbit.
Whilst Mars is a more interesting place with more abundant resources, it is too far away to function as a human colonisation target at present technology sets. That said, the apparent lack of mineral resources on the moon really makes it far less appealing.

louis · 2017-06-18 15:59:59

Yes, I envisage it being very much like the sea cruise market...originally a preserve of very rich people, gradually the experience has moved down the income scale. If you could secure a trip to the Moon for say $75,000 per person, there would be hundreds of thousands of people paying out every year. 200,000 x 75,000 = a $15 billion market per annum. Eventually the price will fall further and probably 10% of the globe's population (700 million people) will be able to afford a holiday on the Moon.

Lunar tourism will definitely popularise the idea of off-Earth living and provide a significant boost to Mars settlement.

Terraformer wrote:

Well, I'm thinking Luna will have a population of the super-wealthy, and later the merely very wealthy, that travel between Luna and Terra at least a couple of times a year and have a source of wealth that doesn't require them to be present in person, at least most of the time. That would grow out of the initial hotel operations, with the addition of an apartment building. As prices come down (ticket prices of $200k return?), more people will be able to move to the growing Shackleton City.

Last edited by louis (2017-06-18 16:00:49)

Antius · 2017-06-18 16:56:47

louis wrote:

Mars is...too far away to function as a human colonisation target at present technology sets.
Really? Really?? Really???
Thankfully we don't have to argue the point, we just have to await Musk honing the present technology and getting humans to Mars. ISRU energy, radiation protection, space medicine, rocket technology, orbital assembly, hab construction, water recycling, life support technology and Mars mapping are all well advanced. All we need is focus and money.

Afraid so. I'm not saying it's impossible for Musk to achieve what he is setting out to do, just that it is much more difficult getting the ticket price down to $100,000 or even ten times that. The spaceship only gets used once every 2.5 years, effectively only a dozen times in a 30 year life. The moon is close and it is much easier to build up the sort of transport scale economies that aircraft enjoy here on Earth. So colonisation of the moon is certainly much easier in the near future (100 years) than colonizing Mars. Whilst I would like to see it happen, I don't think Musk is going to have the money and support to do this. The moon offers a halfway house that is far more achievable.

louis · 2017-06-18 17:18:04

So you're a Lunarist! Explains a lot...

Musk is quite open about his plans but doesn't reveal everything. He will already filling in the gaps between where he is now and the fully developed ITS.

I think Musk's technological proposals are sound - I just don't think he understands human beings that well. Frankly he's a bit naive when it comes down to the human aspects of colonisation. So, I agree his long term plans are not practical - shipping tens of thousands of "amateurs" to live in pressurised environments on Mars without any proposed vetting. It won't work. But technically, there is nothing wrong with his proposal. It is literally a "BFR" - just a question of strapping rockets together and getting various stages to return to Earth, so allowing re-use.

As far as I am concerned, lunar tourism and Mars settlement will go hand in hand...and I am pleased that Musk appears to be of the same opinion. I think he's seen that lunar tourism will generate huge profits (way more than space satellites) and that can be used to fund Mars settlement.

Antius wrote:

louis wrote:
Mars is...too far away to function as a human colonisation target at present technology sets.
Really? Really?? Really???
Thankfully we don't have to argue the point, we just have to await Musk honing the present technology and getting humans to Mars. ISRU energy, radiation protection, space medicine, rocket technology, orbital assembly, hab construction, water recycling, life support technology and Mars mapping are all well advanced. All we need is focus and money.
Afraid so. I'm not saying it's impossible for Musk to achieve what he is setting out to do, just that it is much more difficult getting the ticket price down to $100,000 or even ten times that. The spaceship only gets used once every 2.5 years, effectively only a dozen times in a 30 year life. The moon is close and it is much easier to build up the sort of transport scale economies that aircraft enjoy here on Earth. So colonisation of the moon is certainly much easier in the near future (100 years) than colonizing Mars. Whilst I would like to see it happen, I don't think Musk is going to have the money and support to do this. The moon offers a halfway house that is far more achievable.

SpaceNut · 2017-06-18 19:11:47

Settlers, colonists are sure going to be dreamers of a future Moon, mars, and Venus as they will be risk takers but for this to happen, costs to get man there must drop to be able to have any more than the rich going to any destination to which the common man must be able to afford to go not via decades of saving or striking it rich..

There must be incentive to want to go just like those wandering the Oregon trail....if you go to stay your trip and first cycles supplies are free but to get more you will need to work on this to do list of science, construction ect....

louis · 2017-06-19 05:39:24

I see two broad areas here:

1. What will attract temporary settlers?

2. What will attract permanent settlers?

These are going to be two very different categories of settler.

Regarding 1, I don't think there will be any problem. Many scientists and researchers, together with people with a sense of adventure, will be only too pleased to live on Mars for anything from 2 to 6 years. Many couples would be happy to go together and work on different projects perhaps. There may be a minority who will fall in love with Mars and not want to return to Earth (they will be an important source of well qualified permanent settlers but their numbers won't be huge).

Regarding 2, that requires a completely different mindset. Going to live on Mars is effectively saying goodbye to Planet Earth and all your connections with friends and family there. It's akin to people leaving Britain for Australia in the 19th century.

One of the great attractions of the USA (ignoring its faults) for migrants from all around the world is that sense that it is built on an ideal of freedom and prosperity, through the pursuit of happiness. The Mars settlement must also be a beacon of idealism. I think there will be attraction for many people in leaving behind Earth's ethnic, religious and political hatreds to forge a new type of society with no armies, no wars, no unnecessary divisions between people. It must offer prosperity and the good life - there must be plenty of stimulating entertainment, good food, good experiences. People mustn't feel they are missing out by being on Mars.

On Earth, run down neighbourhoods are often improved through creative people moving in and developing a "buzz". Creative activities open up other business opportunities in catering and then other services. So I would say, make sure there is plenty of creative input on Mars: theatres, cinemas, artists studios, sculpture parks and galleries, as well as sport and leisure opportunities. Plus, as you know I favour also recreating Earth-like environments on Mars. I accept Mars has its own austere beauty but that won't ultimately attract lots of permanent settlers. They need the feel of an Earth-like environment - trees, grass, paths, hills to walk and cycle over.

SpaceNut wrote:

Settlers, colonists are sure going to be dreamers of a future Moon, mars, and Venus as they will be risk takers but for this to happen, costs to get man there must drop to be able to have any more than the rich going to any destination to which the common man must be able to afford to go not via decades of saving or striking it rich..
There must be incentive to want to go just like those wandering the Oregon trail....if you go to stay your trip and first cycles supplies are free but to get more you will need to work on this to do list of science, construction ect....

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-07-30 07:54:13

I thought US English culture would naturally dominate

but You land on Mars but you are not sure what you see, can you read Spanish or Devanagari writing of the Hindi store or Hangul the Korean alphabet...your A.I glasses with some old improved software from an almost ancient samsung hyundai app automatically translate you Korea, other Koreans are good enough to use English Romanized characters for you to pronounce?

South Korean Western Capitalist, Hindu animal worship rituals exported to Mars colonies, Mega world spanning Moon spanning Corporate Government, the islamic mohammedans of Arabia or the Neo Communist?

UAE’s Sultan Al Neyadi to be the first Arab astronaut to spend six months on ISS
https://www.headlinestoday.in/technolog … 19270.html

South Korea to Send Its First Mission to the Moon
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-ne … 180980500/

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2022-09-04 02:55:09)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-09-04 02:48:56

95 years time.... some look ahead 50 yrs some look ahead 100, this vid looked ahead 10,000 days

Smarter than an idea of putting a mosque jihad mohammedan outpost on Mars.

Vid, a little over 27 years

Yet
They cremate the bodies which destroys any future produced resource is a waste and risks the lives of other colonists. If you do this Chinese or some other company or nation might build the first town instead.

Amundsen's South Pole expedition was made of stronger stuff, while he loved his dogs he knew he choice that was to be made in the future in order to go to the Pole.

'THE FIRST 10,000 DAYS ON MARS'
https://youtu.be/G3hPH_bc0Ww

Mars Settlement Likely by 2050 Says Expert – But Not at Levels Predicted by Elon Musk
https://scitechdaily.com/mars-settlemen … elon-musk/

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2022-09-04 09:05:33)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-09-14 09:06:17

A peek into the future - bridging the labor force shortage with affordable robotics solutions

https://interestingengineering.com/inno … -solutions

This will be Mars one day

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1557957132707921920

Understanding consciousness is more important than ever at the dawn of this AI age

https://saigaddam.medium.com/understand … f945da2f0e

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-03-07 06:47:47

Flying will be normal and routine?

NASA’s Mars helicopter aces longest flight in almost a year
https://www.digitaltrends.com/news/nasa … st-a-year/

Mars_B4_Moon · 2024-03-04 07:00:54

AI painting and human inputs, audio and image clips from scifi shows, games or movies, the visions of 'Artificial Intelligence'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzEqmQVov0w

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