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The whole of Antarctica is claimed by various nations - it's just they have agreed to put their claims in the "cold freeze" so to speak.
NASA has been captured by expert groups and special interests. They are incapable of focussing properly on Mars, which should be there top priority (since everything else they do will become easier once we are camped out on Mars). Thankfully we have a visionary with the right stuff - Musk - to take this forward.
Tom Kalbfus wrote:Dook wrote:Profit is better than the whims of Congress? And if Musk puts people on Mars and then he runs out of money, what then?
The government doesn't tell NASA to throw away rockets. It didn't tell NASA to come up with a ridiculous 90 day plan for building a moon base and Battlestar Galactica ships in orbit and then sending them to Mars. Scientists did that.
NASA gets $18b a year. It's pretty steady. NASA decides what to spend it on, not Congress or even the President.
America was discovered by a Spanish grant given to Christopher Columbus.
There is no economic basis for a Mars colony and there won't be for 500 years or more, perhaps never. What incredibly valuable object could possibly be made or produced on Mars for 1% of the costs to make that same thing on the Earth?
Real Estate, Political independence, you can't make those things on Earth very cheaply. To gain political independence often requires a war. Pretty much all the land on Earth is claimed by someone except for Antarctica. The first question, "if Musk runs out of money" is something that it on Musk's mind all the time, but not on the minds of NASA scientists, if they know they can count on $18 billion a year, they won't worry about doing things cheap or finding a way to make a Mars colony self-sustainable, he is going to find a way to reduce costs, NASA is not interested, because reducing costs is not vital to getting that $18 billion from taxpayers next year. Most taxpayers don't pay much attention to how their NASA dollar is spent, because it is such a tiny proportion of their income. Throw away rockets put an upper limit of what you can do with $18 billion a year, there is nothing you can do with those NASA rockets that will raise additional revenue beyond what's appropriated for NASA, with SpaceX however, reusing rockets and selling launch services is a revenue source that doesn't depend on politics, one can then make rational economic decisions rather than emotional ones such as "lets go explore Mars and take sme real nice pictures for the school books!"
One problem is that it would be harder to set up large domes in Antarctica, because any structure would have to stand up to fierce winds in the spring, structure on Mars are easier to keep warm and the wind forces are much reduced, they just have to deal wit internal pressure.
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Why on earth (so to speak) would a Mars colony require regular supplies of "food, oxygen, spare parts, and water."
There's plenty of water on Mars . You can make oxygen from the water. You can grow food on Mars (and just as on Earth, for agricultural processes water can be recycled, it's just you do it all within the farm hab, rather than waiting for it to rain!). Spare parts? Well even most of those can be produced with 3D printers.
And why do you think a planet like Earth can have a functioning economy from which businesses can make surpluses but Mars can't? That doesn't make sense to me. Mars is a cornucopia of resources. It will be a hugely attractive destination for scientists, adventurers and even tourists. It will export regolith and meteorites for scientific study. Gold and rare metals will be mined and sent to Earth for sale. But it will also be able to specialise in producing a range of luxury goods e.g. made-on-Mars watches, made-on-Mars Mars silk scarves, Mars wines and so on, that will find a ready market on Earth. Once there are 100,000 people or so on the planet, it will hardly need any support from Earth. It will be a self-sustaining economy, producing its own food, mining and processing metals, making PV panels, producing vehicles of all kinds etc etc.
Getting to 100,000 will take far less time than you assume.
Dook wrote:Political independence? You think people on Mars will not have to follow our rules? Wrong. At some point, thousands of years into the future, when we have a substantial colony on Mars they will probably have their own government but it will be based on long established laws that we have developed on the Earth.
Musk can make a profit by re-using rocket engines? He can make a profit by putting things into orbit. Can he make a profit by sending things to Mars? In the short term, maybe. In the long term? I don't think so. Any colony on Mars is going to need yearly resupply missions of food, oxygen, spare parts, and water.
Zubrin's Mars Direct idea is close to being realistic. None of the large colonization ideas presented by the Mars society have been realistic. You can't gather enough water from Mars and you can't grow enough food to support a large colony. You would have to resupply them at least once a year for about a hundred years. That eats away any long term profit that Elon Musk could make by sending an initial colony to Mars.
Politics got us to the moon. The scientists didn't think we could do it. John F. Kennedy was the only one who thought we could.
Why would a Mars colony require regular supplies of food, oxygen, spare parts, and water? Because you won't be able to get anywhere near enough water from Mars. What you will get is drops, not gallons. You won't be able to make enough oxygen for a large colony.
Zubrin's Mars Direct oxygen making equipment is huge, about the size of a small house and it would require some type of nuclear power plant about the size of another small house and a full year to store enough oxygen just for a crew of four.
Plants will not get you anywhere near enough oxygen, not even enough for a very small colony. And you will need spare parts because things break and batteries have to be replaced at least every 8 years.
I know you think they will have manufacturing capability. They won't for about 100 years and even then it will be minimal. You haven't looked into what goes into it.
There is plenty of water on Mars? There's almost no water. It's ice mixed with frozen CO2 and regolith and the thick ice is almost entirely at the poles where it's too cold to put a habitat or greenhouse.
Water can be recycled? In a completely enclosed habitat you can recycle almost all of your water, even then you're going to lose some evaporated moisture every time you open the hatch to go outside.
They can make oxygen from the water? That is possible but that would be wasting the water that you need. You have to have both, not one or the other. Getting drinkable water on Mars will be extremely difficult and incredibly inefficient, so much that it won't provide you with enough for even a very small colony.
Mars can have a functioning economy, in about 500 years. Before that, it's impossible. Name one extremely valuable thing that you can produce on Mars at 1% of the cost to produce that thing on the Earth. To make it profitable you have to be able to pay to rocket that thing to the Earth.
Mars is a cornucopia of resources? It is. So is Jupiter. And Pluto, and the sun. Let's be smart here, Mars isn't going anywhere. We have time, and, it's resources are going to stay on Mars, not be rocketed to the Earth. We actually produce gold on the Earth. You can buy it in stores. What makes Mars gold better or cheaper?
Mars is attractive for scientists? Correct, but the missions that send scientists to Mars will return those scientists to the Earth. Colonization is not going to happen for a very, very long time.
Made on Mars watches? In about 500 years.
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Once viable agriculture is established, green growing plants will deal with the Oxygen issues. CO2 is readily converted catalytically to CO and O2. Once water resources are developed, Methane will be available for sale to rockets plying the /asteroid belt. I can see a viable economy developing, but maybe not as fast as the more optimistic visionaries. Mars will become the transportation hub for exploration of the outer solar system and exploitation of the asteroids. "The New Chicago" of the outer system.
Green growing plants will provide the oxygen? Okay, how gigantic is your planned greenhouse going to be?
Is it made of some durable hard plastic material or is it plastic bag thin?
How long do you think a plastic bag greenhouse will last in the elements? Five years, maybe? How are you going to replace the greenhouse once the plants are established?
If the greenhouse is made of thick plastic panels, how many panels, what shape, how big, how many launches will it take to get all the materials to Mars? What kind of scaffolding do you imagine using? How are you going to reclaim the water used? How are you going to heat the greenhouse so the plants don't freeze when it gets down to -140 degrees at night?
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I'm not going to respond, other than say "read pages and pages of other posts on this site." There are many threads, each of these issues has been discussed ad nauseum. I'll leave it to SpaceNut to fill in the details.
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You can have a farm hab underground if you wish, artificially lit.
Not that greenhouses are impractical. The "elements" on Mars are far more benign than on Earth. Light winds and no precipitation to speak of.
Oldfart1939 wrote:Once viable agriculture is established, green growing plants will deal with the Oxygen issues. CO2 is readily converted catalytically to CO and O2. Once water resources are developed, Methane will be available for sale to rockets plying the /asteroid belt. I can see a viable economy developing, but maybe not as fast as the more optimistic visionaries. Mars will become the transportation hub for exploration of the outer solar system and exploitation of the asteroids. "The New Chicago" of the outer system.
Green growing plants will provide the oxygen? Okay, how gigantic is your planned greenhouse going to be?
Is it made of some durable hard plastic material or is it plastic bag thin?How long do you think a plastic bag greenhouse will last in the elements? Five years, maybe? How are you going to replace the greenhouse once the plants are established?
If the greenhouse is made of thick plastic panels, how many panels, what shape, how big, how many launches will it take to get all the materials to Mars? What kind of scaffolding do you imagine using? How are you going to reclaim the water used? How are you going to heat the greenhouse so the plants don't freeze when it gets down to -140 degrees at night?
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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From Wikipedia: "Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter took measurements of the north polar ice cap and determined that the total volume of water ice in the cap is 821,000 cubic kilometres" We are talking about huge amounts of water. Even if it wasn't the case that water glaciers exist much closer to the equator (which it is), or that there isn't ground ice (it seems like there probably is a lot), water could be mined in polar areas by robot tracked vehicles or rocket hoppers and brought south.
With efficient water recycling, the human colonies will not require huge amounts of water replenishment. Even you seem to accept that water recycling can greatly reduce water demand.
Oxygen is also recycled through plants as already pointed out. But there is plent of CO2 in the atmosphere from which oxygen can be made, in addition to the water.
Zubrin's proposals are over 20 years old. Times move on. We're talking about making about 70kgs of air for a crew of six.
Providing for 100,000 people is no different in principle. If you can do it for 6 you can do it for 100,000.
I don't why you are asserting that plants will not get you anywhere near enough oxygen. If you have enough plants, you'll have enough oxygen. Where do you think oxygen comes from on Earth?
Spare parts can be replicated on 3D printing machines, using local materials. The colony will be able to engage in small scale steel and plastics production. In addition they will make good use of materials like bamboo for everyday objects.
Virtually any industrial process can be scaled down. We don't do it on Earth because it doesn't make economic sense. But on Mars it will often make economic sense, being far cheaper than importing materials and products from Earth. What Mars will have is an abundance of energy available to its (relatively) small population on a land mass about the same as Earth's land mass.
I have looked at what goes into manufacture. You might be surprised at what people - amateurs - are able to produce in their back yards. You might be surprised what 3D printers can replicate. It would be easier if you cited a process that couldn't be replicated on Mars. I would agree that computers, 3D printers, medicines, space suits and medical equipment might not be manufactured for many decades. But if you are talking about furniture, kitchen ware, agricultural implements, electric motors, clothing, bricks, vehicles etc. etc. then those can all be produced in fairly short order.
Things do not have to be "cheaper" on Mars than on Earth for there to be a functioning economy. It may be a relatively frugal economy for decades but that doesn't mean it won't be functioning. People may not have huge TV screens - laptops with suffice - or buy clothes for a couple of wears or drive expensive personal vehicles. But they will eat well and their labour will be highly valued. What will make the economy work will be a very high ratio of energy to people. Initially the energy infrastructure will need to be imported. But within a few years, the Mars colony will be able to use solar reflectors to generate electricity.
Most of Mars's resources will stay on Mars. But the regolith will be valued for study on Earth, as will meteorites. Also we may well find exposed gold deposits on the surface (since no one else will have accessed them yet). If they are very pure, then extraction and return to Earth becomes an economic proposition that might generate revenues. B
A colony does not require permanent residence. Plenty of colonists on Earth have returned to home countries. It is continuity of settlement which matters.
Made on Mars watches could be made on the first mission if you wanted. You take Rolex parts to Mars, assemble them and incorporate some Mars material e.g. some polished stone in the face or similar. Stamp it made on Mars. They will sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Why would a Mars colony require regular supplies of food, oxygen, spare parts, and water? Because you won't be able to get anywhere near enough water from Mars. What you will get is drops, not gallons. You won't be able to make enough oxygen for a large colony.
Zubrin's Mars Direct oxygen making equipment is huge, about the size of a small house and it would require some type of nuclear power plant about the size of another small house and a full year to store enough oxygen just for a crew of four.
Plants will not get you anywhere near enough oxygen, not even enough for a very small colony. And you will need spare parts because things break and batteries have to be replaced at least every 8 years.
I know you think they will have manufacturing capability. They won't for about 100 years and even then it will be minimal. You haven't looked into what goes into it.
There is plenty of water on Mars? There's almost no water. It's ice mixed with frozen CO2 and regolith and the thick ice is almost entirely at the poles where it's too cold to put a habitat or greenhouse.
Water can be recycled? In a completely enclosed habitat you can recycle almost all of your water, even then you're going to lose some evaporated moisture every time you open the hatch to go outside.
They can make oxygen from the water? That is possible but that would be wasting the water that you need. You have to have both, not one or the other. Getting drinkable water on Mars will be extremely difficult and incredibly inefficient, so much that it won't provide you with enough for even a very small colony.
Mars can have a functioning economy, in about 500 years. Before that, it's impossible. Name one extremely valuable thing that you can produce on Mars at 1% of the cost to produce that thing on the Earth. To make it profitable you have to be able to pay to rocket that thing to the Earth.
Mars is a cornucopia of resources? It is. So is Jupiter. And Pluto, and the sun. Let's be smart here, Mars isn't going anywhere. We have time, and, it's resources are going to stay on Mars, not be rocketed to the Earth. We actually produce gold on the Earth. You can buy it in stores. What makes Mars gold better or cheaper?
Mars is attractive for scientists? Correct, but the missions that send scientists to Mars will return those scientists to the Earth. Colonization is not going to happen for a very, very long time.
Made on Mars watches? In about 500 years.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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I can read hundreds of pages of comic books material too, doesn't mean it's realistic. People don't understand the difference between something that is possible and something that is realistic.
It's probably not possible but even if it were possible to land 100,000 people on Mars in 100 years they would die as fast as you land them there. If you want them to survive then you have to go at a much, much, much slower pace. They're not going to be able to build and expand quickly. They're going to fail, and fail, and fail again, before they get one small thing right and it's going to be like that for almost everything.
Mars Direct was to put 5 crew on Mars and cost about $50 billion, but, it had to return the crew home. So, lets cut it in half, that's $25 billion to send 5 people to Mars but let's say that Elon Musk can get it down to half that cost, that's still $2.5 billion a person and that doesn't cover the yearly re-supply missions.
It is possible to harvest water on Mars, about as much as a small animal would need.
It is possible to make oxygen on Mars. You need a one story building sized apparatus and another one story building sized nuclear power plant to power it. This would make enough oxygen for a few people, not a colony. If it breaks, the people die so you need at least two of these. Please provide the details on how you are going to move the second oxygen maker and second nuclear power plant to your base. If you think that Elon Musks maneuverable rocket can land things exactly where you want them on Mars, you shouldn't. The rocket that did that on the Earth didn't perform an aero-capture. It went up, moved around, then came back down.
It is possible to grow plants on Mars, in a greenhouse. In order to grow enough food to feed just four people the greenhouse would have to be huge. Fruit trees and vegetables only produce fruit once a year. The greenhouse will probably have to be heated so the vegetables/fruit don't freeze at night. Where are you going to get the heat from?
Possible and realistic, sometimes, are extremely very far apart from each other.
There's just no way. You people have not looked at the details of colonization.
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You can have a farm hab underground if you wish, artificially lit.
Not that greenhouses are impractical. The "elements" on Mars are far more benign than on Earth. Light winds and no precipitation to speak of.
Dook wrote:Oldfart1939 wrote:Once viable agriculture is established, green growing plants will deal with the Oxygen issues. CO2 is readily converted catalytically to CO and O2. Once water resources are developed, Methane will be available for sale to rockets plying the /asteroid belt. I can see a viable economy developing, but maybe not as fast as the more optimistic visionaries. Mars will become the transportation hub for exploration of the outer solar system and exploitation of the asteroids. "The New Chicago" of the outer system.
Green growing plants will provide the oxygen? Okay, how gigantic is your planned greenhouse going to be?
Is it made of some durable hard plastic material or is it plastic bag thin?How long do you think a plastic bag greenhouse will last in the elements? Five years, maybe? How are you going to replace the greenhouse once the plants are established?
If the greenhouse is made of thick plastic panels, how many panels, what shape, how big, how many launches will it take to get all the materials to Mars? What kind of scaffolding do you imagine using? How are you going to reclaim the water used? How are you going to heat the greenhouse so the plants don't freeze when it gets down to -140 degrees at night?
An underground habitat is fine. I'm on board with that idea as long as it's used as a greenhouse and backup habitat. It's going to be rather small, maybe 30'x30' and take some time to excavate with equipment.
If it's just a habitat it's not going to get you anything you don't already have assuming you landed in a Zubrin tuna can, why not just live in the tuna can?
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From Wikipedia: "Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter took measurements of the north polar ice cap and determined that the total volume of water ice in the cap is 821,000 cubic kilometres" We are talking about huge amounts of water. Even if it wasn't the case that water glaciers exist much closer to the equator (which it is), or that there isn't ground ice (it seems like there probably is a lot), water could be mined in polar areas by robot tracked vehicles or rocket hoppers and brought south.
With efficient water recycling, the human colonies will not require huge amounts of water replenishment. Even you seem to accept that water recycling can greatly reduce water demand.
Oxygen is also recycled through plants as already pointed out. But there is plent of CO2 in the atmosphere from which oxygen can be made, in addition to the water.
Zubrin's proposals are over 20 years old. Times move on. We're talking about making about 70kgs of air for a crew of six.
Providing for 100,000 people is no different in principle. If you can do it for 6 you can do it for 100,000.
I don't why you are asserting that plants will not get you anywhere near enough oxygen. If you have enough plants, you'll have enough oxygen. Where do you think oxygen comes from on Earth?
Spare parts can be replicated on 3D printing machines, using local materials. The colony will be able to engage in small scale steel and plastics production. In addition they will make good use of materials like bamboo for everyday objects.
Virtually any industrial process can be scaled down. We don't do it on Earth because it doesn't make economic sense. But on Mars it will often make economic sense, being far cheaper than importing materials and products from Earth. What Mars will have is an abundance of energy available to its (relatively) small population on a land mass about the same as Earth's land mass.
I have looked at what goes into manufacture. You might be surprised at what people - amateurs - are able to produce in their back yards. You might be surprised what 3D printers can replicate. It would be easier if you cited a process that couldn't be replicated on Mars. I would agree that computers, 3D printers, medicines, space suits and medical equipment might not be manufactured for many decades. But if you are talking about furniture, kitchen ware, agricultural implements, electric motors, clothing, bricks, vehicles etc. etc. then those can all be produced in fairly short order.
Things do not have to be "cheaper" on Mars than on Earth for there to be a functioning economy. It may be a relatively frugal economy for decades but that doesn't mean it won't be functioning. People may not have huge TV screens - laptops with suffice - or buy clothes for a couple of wears or drive expensive personal vehicles. But they will eat well and their labour will be highly valued. What will make the economy work will be a very high ratio of energy to people. Initially the energy infrastructure will need to be imported. But within a few years, the Mars colony will be able to use solar reflectors to generate electricity.
Most of Mars's resources will stay on Mars. But the regolith will be valued for study on Earth, as will meteorites. Also we may well find exposed gold deposits on the surface (since no one else will have accessed them yet). If they are very pure, then extraction and return to Earth becomes an economic proposition that might generate revenues. B
A colony does not require permanent residence. Plenty of colonists on Earth have returned to home countries. It is continuity of settlement which matters.
Made on Mars watches could be made on the first mission if you wanted. You take Rolex parts to Mars, assemble them and incorporate some Mars material e.g. some polished stone in the face or similar. Stamp it made on Mars. They will sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Dook wrote:Why would a Mars colony require regular supplies of food, oxygen, spare parts, and water? Because you won't be able to get anywhere near enough water from Mars. What you will get is drops, not gallons. You won't be able to make enough oxygen for a large colony.
Zubrin's Mars Direct oxygen making equipment is huge, about the size of a small house and it would require some type of nuclear power plant about the size of another small house and a full year to store enough oxygen just for a crew of four.
Plants will not get you anywhere near enough oxygen, not even enough for a very small colony. And you will need spare parts because things break and batteries have to be replaced at least every 8 years.
I know you think they will have manufacturing capability. They won't for about 100 years and even then it will be minimal. You haven't looked into what goes into it.
There is plenty of water on Mars? There's almost no water. It's ice mixed with frozen CO2 and regolith and the thick ice is almost entirely at the poles where it's too cold to put a habitat or greenhouse.
Water can be recycled? In a completely enclosed habitat you can recycle almost all of your water, even then you're going to lose some evaporated moisture every time you open the hatch to go outside.
They can make oxygen from the water? That is possible but that would be wasting the water that you need. You have to have both, not one or the other. Getting drinkable water on Mars will be extremely difficult and incredibly inefficient, so much that it won't provide you with enough for even a very small colony.
Mars can have a functioning economy, in about 500 years. Before that, it's impossible. Name one extremely valuable thing that you can produce on Mars at 1% of the cost to produce that thing on the Earth. To make it profitable you have to be able to pay to rocket that thing to the Earth.
Mars is a cornucopia of resources? It is. So is Jupiter. And Pluto, and the sun. Let's be smart here, Mars isn't going anywhere. We have time, and, it's resources are going to stay on Mars, not be rocketed to the Earth. We actually produce gold on the Earth. You can buy it in stores. What makes Mars gold better or cheaper?
Mars is attractive for scientists? Correct, but the missions that send scientists to Mars will return those scientists to the Earth. Colonization is not going to happen for a very, very long time.
Made on Mars watches? In about 500 years.
The Martian north polar ice cap has a lot of ice? You missed the key word in that sentence which is "polar". The poles do have a lot of ice. How are you going to live there? The equator on Mars gets down to -140 at night, and that's the equator, not the poles.
It seems like there is a lot of ground ice? There is ice under the ground. I think I saw something that said it was six feet down in some places. How are you going to dig through frozen regolith to get it and how are you going to separate the frozen CO2?
Polar ice could be mined with robots and brought down to the equator? What is going to power your robot? If it's solar it's going to take your robot a month to get from the equator to the pole and you have to hope it doesn't get stuck or break down in the rock fields.
What would power your rocket hopper? Rocket fuel sent from the Earth?
With efficient water recycling a colony will not require huge amounts of water? I agree, but they're will be inefficiencies. Every time they open the greenhouse hatch they will lose evaporated moisture, not a lot but some and if they are going outside multiple times each day it adds up.
Oxygen is recycled through plants? You're talking efficiency rates of 1-3%. You would need a greenhouse the size of a football field to convert enough oxygen for a very small colony.
Oxygen can be made from the CO2 in the atmosphere? It can. Mars Direct planned for that. The apparatus is the size of a small house and to power it requires a nuclear power plant the size of a small house, and, it needs to be in operation for a year before you get there and that's just for four people, for 1 year, not a colony, and you need a second backup system.
Zubrin's proposals are old and outdated? Physic's hasn't changed in that time.
If you can provide for 6 on Mars you can provide for 100,000? Uhh, you're living in a very different reality.
Spare parts can be replicated on 3D printing machines? Yeah, spare parts for a board game. A 3D printer can't make a battery. It won't make a computer. It won't even make a computer board. It can't even make a computer chip.
The colony will be able to engage in small scale steel and plastics production? No, they won't, well, not for a very long time. Why make something out of steel, what are you going to do with it? All of the habitat's are going to be prefabricated parts sent from the earth. All of the greenhouses are going to be prefab plastic panels sent from the earth. What are you going to make with your small steel production hab?
They can just use bamboo? Okay, for what exactly?
Virtually all industrial processing can be scaled down? Okay, but just making small steel components doesn't get you anything but some hand tools, a hammer, some spoons. The buried habitats are not going to be made of small steel components, neither are the greenhouse domes so you wasted a few launches to get steel manufacturing to Mars that doesn't do enough to make it reasonable. And how much energy did you use to make your Mars hammer?
Will it be cheaper to use your small steel production to make a hammer on Mars than shipping one on a rocket? Debatable, here's the thing, if you don't have a hammer and you really need one, then, yes, you need a small steel production habitat to make that hammer. But if you already have a couple of hammers that were sent on the first crew mission and left behind, then the small steel production hab is a waste. It's not like Mars is ever going to start exporting hammers or spoons to the Earth.
How long do you expect the nuclear power plants sent to Mars to last before they need to be replaced? How long do you expect all the batteries to last before they need to be replaced?
I would be surprised at what 3D printers can replicate? Probably not. A 3D printer sprays plastic into a shape and hardens it. That piece of plastic then has to be used as a die and then molten metal poured in and allowed to harden. That's great for some simple things, like hammers and spoons, not so great for complex things like computer mother boards or batteries or solar panels.
Things don't have to be cheaper on Mars for there to be a functioning economy? If you want to ship things from Mars to the Earth for profit they do. They have to be incredibly cheap and/or in demand.
The Martian colonists won't have huge TV screens or expensive personal vehicles? What? Personal vehicles on Mars? You're talking more than 500 years in the future.
In a few years the Mars colony will be able to use solar reflectors to generate steam and produce their own electricity? It's possible they could have a solar reflector farm at the equator. All of the components would have to come from the Earth and the farm would have to be pretty huge. If it was the same size as one on the Earth it would make half the power of an Earth solar farm and it would make no power in dust storms, still, I think it's doable.
Mars regolith will be valued for study on the Earth? The first crew missions would bring some home. They don't need endless amounts of it and some analysis can be done on Mars.
Martian gold might generate revenue? The hydrogen used in your Martian rocket would have to come from the Earth. There's no way Martian gold would be cheaper than Earth gold.
A colony could return colonists to the Earth? But that's making the process inefficient. Keeping them there means you have to use less rocket fuel and not retrain new people.
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Dook-
Your entire rant is filled with assumptions which are demonstrably incorrect. You need to do some better research about 3-D printing, since SpaceX and Lockheed Martin are manufacturing metal parts directly--not through investment castings and plastic models. Printing plastics is pretty much for amateurs, and there are commercially available printers capable of direct manufacture of too many metals to mention in passing. Do Google search and be amazed at the size and complexity of 3-D printed metallic parts. The Moxie unit is not as energy consumptive as you make it out to be, either. I did the calculations a couple weeks ago and they're posted somewhere in another thread. The model NASA wants to send on their next rover is small, but the second unit is of a reasonable size. It's capable of producing sufficient O2 for the mars departure vehicle in between Hohmann Transfer windows. Gold, at today's price is sitting at $38,580 per kilogram. I doubt it would be exported to Earth, but used to pay in hard currency for food imported. One million dollars is 25.92 Kg in Gold. I don't expect there to be a gold rush on Mars, but possibly enough could be found to pay for some of the colonization expenses. Regarding energy, there will undoubtedly be mining for radionuclides. There is a lot of Thorium here on Earth--much more than Uranium. It should be a priority on Mars to develop valuable deposits.
Point is, we won't really know how to exploit what's there UNTIL WE GET THERE!
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Dook-
Your entire rant is filled with assumptions which are demonstrably incorrect. You need to do some better research about 3-D printing, since SpaceX and Lockheed Martin are manufacturing metal parts directly--not through investment castings and plastic models. Printing plastics is pretty much for amateurs, and there are commercially available printers capable of direct manufacture of too many metals to mention in passing. Do Google search and be amazed at the size and complexity of 3-D printed metallic parts. The Moxie unit is not as energy consumptive as you make it out to be, either. I did the calculations a couple weeks ago and they're posted somewhere in another thread. The model NASA wants to send on their next rover is small, but the second unit is of a reasonable size. It's capable of producing sufficient O2 for the mars departure vehicle in between Hohmann Transfer windows. Gold, at today's price is sitting at $38,580 per kilogram. I doubt it would be exported to Earth, but used to pay in hard currency for food imported. One million dollars is 25.92 Kg in Gold. I don't expect there to be a gold rush on Mars, but possibly enough could be found to pay for some of the colonization expenses. Regarding energy, there will undoubtedly be mining for radionuclides. There is a lot of Thorium here on Earth--much more than Uranium. It should be a priority on Mars to develop valuable deposits.
Point is, we won't really know how to exploit what's there UNTIL WE GET THERE!
Manufacturers are making metal parts directly with 3D printers? Oh, you mean they are using computerized metal cutting to cut solid chunks of metal to make parts? Wow, you are soooo smart. Are they using them to make computer chips? Nope. What about batteries? Nope. Solar panels? Nope. Where are you going to get the aluminum oxide from or the alloy elements, copper, tin, magnesium, manganese, to make aluminum alloy?
Iron oxide is everywhere. Where is the carbon on Mars? Alloying elements aren't as easy to find. Oh, did you think that we're going to drive around, scooping up regolith, bringing it back to the base, and separate the iron oxide and silicon from the trace elements just so we can use the small metal manufacturing we have on Mars to make what exactly?
What iron components do you think will be in need on Mars in the first 100 years? Probably, none. So you want to send steel manufacturing along with a supply of alloy element carbon to Mars so you can make, what exactly, nails? Spoons?
You can make all kinds of neat things with a 3D printer, just not the things you would need on Mars for another 100 years or so, certainly not the necessary things like oxygen, water, food, solar panels, and batteries.
Probably the best thing that a 3D etcher can make is nuts and bolts but it would be extremely rare for a bolt to break but a bolt could break on the rover. We could simply send along a small case of extra bolts instead of using an entire mission just to have a very small steel manufacturing capability on Mars.
The second Moxie unit that NASA plans to send to Mars is of reasonable size? How many of them do you need to provide enough oxygen for 100,000 people? Remember to double the amount because you need backups just in case the main one breaks down, maybe it shuts down during a month long sand storm because of clogged filters. Can you use your 3D printer to make new filters? Nope. Add filters to your list of annual supplies needed to be sent to Mars.
In one sentence you say that you doubt that gold will ever be exported to the Earth and then you say it could be used to pay for food from the Earth? If you can't get it to the Earth then it's not payment.
There's not much reason to export anything to the Earth because to be profitable it has to be cheaper or much better or it has to be a demanded novelty item. You're not going to make anything cheaper on Mars than we can make it on the Earth. You're also not going to make anything better. There will be some exchange of novelty items, vases made with Martian regolith and whatever but not enough to pay for a large colony.
We won't know really how to exploit what's on Mars until we get there? We know a great deal about Mars, you can do a search online for information on it.
The main thing about Mars is that it's not going anywhere.
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Oldfart has put you right on 3D printing and oxygen production. Once we have our oxygen most of it can simply be recycled through plants.
Rocket fuel can be made on Mars. Musk plans to do just that.
Solar reflectors can be made from Mars produced steel - polish up the steel and you have an effective reflector.
There is nothing odd about going from 6 to 100,000 because the ISRU will barely scratch the surface of Mars, and virtually all processes will be enabled by energy, freely collected from the Sun (rather than relying directly on the bounty of nature, as on Earth). 100,000 is a very modest number compared with the 7,000,000,000 on the same land mass on Earth (about 0.07% of Earth's population if I've got my decimals right). You original 6 can easily build habitat space for another 20 - the next 20 can do it for 100. So and so on.
There are 101 ways to make batteries at home...
http://www.wikihow.com/Make-a-Homemade-Battery
A team of highly skilled technicians and scientists will be able to use imported machines from Earth to make far more sophisticated batteries if necessary. But of course this is all a question of balance, as to whether it makes more sense to import or manufacture on Mars. In any case you don't really need many batteries if you are making methane.
Are you seriously suggesting that not every geology department on Earth would want a range of regolith material from Mars to study? Of course they would. There are about 17,000 universities world-wide. If 10,000 of those have astrophysics, metallurgy, climatology, geology and similar departments, then I think demand from them alone would be around one million Kgs - 1000 tonnes. Add to that demand from space enthusiasts, museums, interested companies, space agencies, meteorite collectors etc.
Hydrogen can come from water as I am sure you know. Digging water from the frozen ground is a doddle. Microwave the ground as you dig.
Excuse my ignorance on plants - they use water not CO2 to make oxygen. So as long as we have a good supply of water, then they can do much of the oxygen making for us.
The Martian north polar ice cap has a lot of ice? You missed the key word in that sentence which is "polar". The poles do have a lot of ice. How are you going to live there? The equator on Mars gets down to -140 at night, and that's the equator, not the poles.
It seems like there is a lot of ground ice? There is ice under the ground. I think I saw something that said it was six feet down in some places. How are you going to dig through frozen regolith to get it and how are you going to separate the frozen CO2?
Polar ice could be mined with robots and brought down to the equator? What is going to power your robot? If it's solar it's going to take your robot a month to get from the equator to the pole and you have to hope it doesn't get stuck or break down in the rock fields.
What would power your rocket hopper? Rocket fuel sent from the Earth?
With efficient water recycling a colony will not require huge amounts of water? I agree, but they're will be inefficiencies. Every time they open the greenhouse hatch they will lose evaporated moisture, not a lot but some and if they are going outside multiple times each day it adds up.
Oxygen is recycled through plants? You're talking efficiency rates of 1-3%. You would need a greenhouse the size of a football field to convert enough oxygen for a very small colony.
Oxygen can be made from the CO2 in the atmosphere? It can. Mars Direct planned for that. The apparatus is the size of a small house and to power it requires a nuclear power plant the size of a small house, and, it needs to be in operation for a year before you get there and that's just for four people, for 1 year, not a colony, and you need a second backup system.
Zubrin's proposals are old and outdated? Physic's hasn't changed in that time.
If you can provide for 6 on Mars you can provide for 100,000? Uhh, you're living in a very different reality.
Spare parts can be replicated on 3D printing machines? Yeah, spare parts for a board game. A 3D printer can't make a battery. It won't make a computer. It won't even make a computer board. It can't even make a computer chip.
The colony will be able to engage in small scale steel and plastics production? No, they won't, well, not for a very long time. Why make something out of steel, what are you going to do with it? All of the habitat's are going to be prefabricated parts sent from the earth. All of the greenhouses are going to be prefab plastic panels sent from the earth. What are you going to make with your small steel production hab?
They can just use bamboo? Okay, for what exactly?
Virtually all industrial processing can be scaled down? Okay, but just making small steel components doesn't get you anything but some hand tools, a hammer, some spoons. The buried habitats are not going to be made of small steel components, neither are the greenhouse domes so you wasted a few launches to get steel manufacturing to Mars that doesn't do enough to make it reasonable. And how much energy did you use to make your Mars hammer?
Will it be cheaper to use your small steel production to make a hammer on Mars than shipping one on a rocket? Debatable, here's the thing, if you don't have a hammer and you really need one, then, yes, you need a small steel production habitat to make that hammer. But if you already have a couple of hammers that were sent on the first crew mission and left behind, then the small steel production hab is a waste. It's not like Mars is ever going to start exporting hammers or spoons to the Earth.
How long do you expect the nuclear power plants sent to Mars to last before they need to be replaced? How long do you expect all the batteries to last before they need to be replaced?
I would be surprised at what 3D printers can replicate? Probably not. A 3D printer sprays plastic into a shape and hardens it. That piece of plastic then has to be used as a die and then molten metal poured in and allowed to harden. That's great for some simple things, like hammers and spoons, not so great for complex things like computer mother boards or batteries or solar panels.
Things don't have to be cheaper on Mars for there to be a functioning economy? If you want to ship things from Mars to the Earth for profit they do. They have to be incredibly cheap and/or in demand.
The Martian colonists won't have huge TV screens or expensive personal vehicles? What? Personal vehicles on Mars? You're talking more than 500 years in the future.
In a few years the Mars colony will be able to use solar reflectors to generate steam and produce their own electricity? It's possible they could have a solar reflector farm at the equator. All of the components would have to come from the Earth and the farm would have to be pretty huge. If it was the same size as one on the Earth it would make half the power of an Earth solar farm and it would make no power in dust storms, still, I think it's doable.
Mars regolith will be valued for study on the Earth? The first crew missions would bring some home. They don't need endless amounts of it and some analysis can be done on Mars.
Martian gold might generate revenue? The hydrogen used in your Martian rocket would have to come from the Earth. There's no way Martian gold would be cheaper than Earth gold.
A colony could return colonists to the Earth? But that's making the process inefficient. Keeping them there means you have to use less rocket fuel and not retrain new people.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Dook, would you be willing to place a long bet on the probability of Mars colonisation? Say, that by 2120 there won't be any human settlement on Mars except for a few scientific outposts, which is what you seem to be claiming will be the case?
Use what is abundant and build to last
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I don't favour greenhouse agricultural. Rather, I favour enclosed farm habs, artificially lit, using surface PV (and later solar reflector, iron combustion or other) power. So the need to manufacture glass panels does not arise. I favour cut and cover techniques, using some Mars brick construction and steel support struts (produced on Mars).
Bamboo has a thousand uses. This should help:
https://www.bambooimport.com/en/blog/pr … rom-bamboo
The colony will be able to engage in small scale steel and plastics production? No, they won't, well, not for a very long time. Why make something out of steel, what are you going to do with it? All of the habitat's are going to be prefabricated parts sent from the earth. All of the greenhouses are going to be prefab plastic panels sent from the earth. What are you going to make with your small steel production hab?
They can just use bamboo? Okay, for what exactly?
Virtually all industrial processing can be scaled down? Okay, but just making small steel components doesn't get you anything but some hand tools, a hammer, some spoons. The buried habitats are not going to be made of small steel components, neither are the greenhouse domes so you wasted a few launches to get steel manufacturing to Mars that doesn't do enough to make it reasonable. And how much energy did you use to make your Mars hammer?
.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Dook-
Although Louis and I differ on some of the details, we are united in our view that colonization WILL take place.
Here are a few links to 3-D Printing services:
https://all3dp.com/metal-3d-printer-guide/
http://www.renishaw.com/en/metal-additi … ing--15240
I'm certain that a medium size 3-D printer will be among the first loads of equipment sent to Mars.
Louis has already pointed out that water is probably easier to obtain than you surmise. His comments however, regarding the photosynthetic chemistry were slightly off, but close enough in the outcome derived to be insignificant. The end result being Oxygen liberated along with synthesis of carbohydrates from water and Carbon Dioxide. So...yeah, bamboo could be grown to provide structural materials. Not really my first choice, but it does grow rapidly and liberate Oxygen as a byproduct.
I envision the first base on Mars as being a hub for exploration and a research facility. Why send lots of regolith back to Earth for analysis when a reasonable laboratory in situ could simply sent RESULTS by electronic transmissions? There will subsequently be individuals who enjoy the challenges of working in a difficult environment who decide to make the planet a home, in a manner similar to the early settlers in the American West and those in Australia. Manufacturing will arise as a byproduct of nascent civilization, along with rudimentary agriculture. One of the first industries to arise will be plastics manufacture, using the Martian atmosphere. My choice for construction materials involve ABS plastics and Polycarbonate (Lexan);in combination, both structure and transparent windows can be manufactured for sturdy above surface greenhouses. I'm running short of time right now to continue my rebuttal of your comments, but I'll BE BACK!
Last edited by Oldfart1939 (2017-04-12 08:36:44)
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As for funding colonisation, my view is that there'll be enough demand from governments to support the establishment of a company to provide transport and in-situ services, and that once this is paid for (by government contracts) the cost will come down low enough for a private venture (funded by a coalition of billionaires who aren't concerned with making a return - yes, they do exist) to establish a small colony, which may be able to fund it's ongoing costs. As time goes on, the cost of both transport and building settlements will continue to drop, until it reaches the point at which the floodgates will open and people will move en-masse to Mars.
I think the first and second part (government bases and private colonies backed by wealthy benefactors) have a good chance of happening in the next few decades. As for a big colonisation wave, that will depend on how difficult it is to terraform Mars - a partially terraformed Mars, where food can be grown in unpressurised greenhouses, would be a lot easier to settle than the present Mars.
Use what is abundant and build to last
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Oldfart has put you right on 3D printing and oxygen production. Once we have our oxygen most of it can simply be recycled through plants.
Rocket fuel can be made on Mars. Musk plans to do just that.
Solar reflectors can be made from Mars produced steel - polish up the steel and you have an effective reflector.
There is nothing odd about going from 6 to 100,000 because the ISRU will barely scratch the surface of Mars, and virtually all processes will be enabled by energy, freely collected from the Sun (rather than relying directly on the bounty of nature, as on Earth). 100,000 is a very modest number compared with the 7,000,000,000 on the same land mass on Earth (about 0.07% of Earth's population if I've got my decimals right). You original 6 can easily build habitat space for another 20 - the next 20 can do it for 100. So and so on.
There are 101 ways to make batteries at home...
http://www.wikihow.com/Make-a-Homemade-Battery
A team of highly skilled technicians and scientists will be able to use imported machines from Earth to make far more sophisticated batteries if necessary. But of course this is all a question of balance, as to whether it makes more sense to import or manufacture on Mars. In any case you don't really need many batteries if you are making methane.
Are you seriously suggesting that not every geology department on Earth would want a range of regolith material from Mars to study? Of course they would. There are about 17,000 universities world-wide. If 10,000 of those have astrophysics, metallurgy, climatology, geology and similar departments, then I think demand from them alone would be around one million Kgs - 1000 tonnes. Add to that demand from space enthusiasts, museums, interested companies, space agencies, meteorite collectors etc.
Hydrogen can come from water as I am sure you know. Digging water from the frozen ground is a doddle. Microwave the ground as you dig.
Excuse my ignorance on plants - they use water not CO2 to make oxygen. So as long as we have a good supply of water, then they can do much of the oxygen making for us.
Oldfart put me right on 3D printing? No, he didn't. You can't make batteries with a 3D printer. Can't make solar panels. Can't make computer hard drives or any computer part. Can't make a Moxie. Can't even make new filters for your Moxie. So what exactly are you going to do with your 3D printer?
Oldfart set me right on oxygen production? A Moxie will produce oxygen. You need one for every settlement, and a backup Moxie, and one nuclear power plant to operate it.
Oxygen can be recycled through plants? You need 22 trees to produce enough oxygen for one person. I think the trees in this estimate are big trees, not small ones.
Rocket fuel can be made on Mars? So you want to take extremely valuable water on Mars and break it down into hydrogen to power an Earth Return Vehicle to send regolith to the Earth so you can have a Mars rock?
Solar reflectors can be made from Mars produced steel? Or we can send five hundred fiberglass panels with reflective mylar on one side to be used as reflectors. My idea is up and running in a week. Your idea takes years.
Virtually all processes will be enabled with energy? You can't eat electricity, can't breathe it, can't use it for shelter, but it's necessary for operating equipment.
There are 101 ways to make a battery at home? Once again you're confusing something that is possible with something that is reasonable. A potato will get you less than a volt, it's not a battery, you can't send electricity into it and have it store the electricity.
Mars colonists will be able to make their own sophisticated batteries? How?
You don't need batteries if you're making methane? Every laptop computer will need a battery. Your rovers will all need batteries, car sized ones. Your lander habitats will need batteries. Any Earth Return Vehicle will need batteries. Your solar panel farm will need batteries because solar panels don't power things directly, the power goes to a battery bank and the battery bank powers the equipment.
What are you planning on doing with methane?
Am I suggesting that every college won't want Martian regolith? I'm sure they do want it, along with samples from other celestial bodies as well, they won't get it. We're not going to go to Mars so you can touch a Mars rock. Any analysis of Martian regolith will be done on Mars. We're not going to waste rocket fuel so every college can have it's own Mars rock.
We can get hydrogen from water on Mars? You're going to take incredibly valuable water on Mars and break it down into hydrogen just to power a rocket to send Mars rocks to the Earth?
They can just microwave the ground to get water on Mars? How are you going to power this microwave, with very long extension cords from the habitat? How are you going to get the dirty water, with towels? Also, for water to be liquid on Mars it has to be warm, it's never warm at the poles. Your ice will go directly to vapor.
Plants use water not CO2 to make oxygen? I believe they use water, CO2, and some oxygen to make more oxygen.
Last edited by Dook (2017-04-12 11:17:56)
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Dook, would you be willing to place a long bet on the probability of Mars colonisation? Say, that by 2120 there won't be any human settlement on Mars except for a few scientific outposts, which is what you seem to be claiming will be the case?
Why make a bet that none of us will be around to see?
By 2120 will there be any human settlement on Mars? I think there will be, but it won't be 100,000 people. It might be about 20 in one or two test locations on the equator.
For every small settlement of 4 people you need a small habitat, could be the lander they landed in, you need a very large greenhouse, maybe a 100 foot wide circular dome, you need two Moxie units, one nuclear power plant, a small solar panel farm, and a rover.
So, for just those things it will take about six launches from Earth and all those things won't land at your base, they will be spread out and you will have to somehow go out and get them.
The first settlement will still need yearly resupply of food until they figure out how to do it or if it's even possible to grow enough food. You have to keep your greenhouse warm, even at night when the outside temperature drops to -140. If the plants get cold at the wrong time they will drop their leaves and fruit and go dormant.
They won't harvest Martian ice for water. If they have to do that they're dead already. They will use the water they brought with them.
They won't rocket anything to the Earth. That's an absolute waste and would require an additional ERV launched to Mars.
They won't produce metal components or anything else other than food. Their job will be to farm, tend their chickens, maintain the equipment, dust off the solar panels and greenhouse, their job is to survive, not to make new settlements, and not to explore. Exploration would already be done.
Every new settlement will land on Mars the same way the first one did, it will take about 6 launches of equipment and every settlement will be at the equator.
Every settlement would need periodic resupply of batteries, laptop computers, Moxie parts, rover parts, tuna can components, movies/TV shows/music, and more.
The settlements would be near each other on the equator, one shipment from the Earth could probably bring the parts needed for all settlements. There would be at least one resupply mission a year with food at first then taper off to maybe one resupply every two years, then maybe go to three years.
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Dook-
Although Louis and I differ on some of the details, we are united in our view that colonization WILL take place.
Here are a few links to 3-D Printing services:
https://all3dp.com/metal-3d-printer-guide/
http://www.renishaw.com/en/metal-additi … ing--15240
I'm certain that a medium size 3-D printer will be among the first loads of equipment sent to Mars.
Louis has already pointed out that water is probably easier to obtain than you surmise. His comments however, regarding the photosynthetic chemistry were slightly off, but close enough in the outcome derived to be insignificant. The end result being Oxygen liberated along with synthesis of carbohydrates from water and Carbon Dioxide. So...yeah, bamboo could be grown to provide structural materials. Not really my first choice, but it does grow rapidly and liberate Oxygen as a byproduct.
I envision the first base on Mars as being a hub for exploration and a research facility. Why send lots of regolith back to Earth for analysis when a reasonable laboratory in situ could simply sent RESULTS by electronic transmissions? There will subsequently be individuals who enjoy the challenges of working in a difficult environment who decide to make the planet a home, in a manner similar to the early settlers in the American West and those in Australia. Manufacturing will arise as a byproduct of nascent civilization, along with rudimentary agriculture. One of the first industries to arise will be plastics manufacture, using the Martian atmosphere. My choice for construction materials involve ABS plastics and Polycarbonate (Lexan);in combination, both structure and transparent windows can be manufactured for sturdy above surface greenhouses. I'm running short of time right now to continue my rebuttal of your comments, but I'll BE BACK!
I am absolutely sure that colonization will take place. It won't be anywhere near the unreasonable schedule that some of you have imagined. We won't have 1 million people on Mars in 40 years. We will be lucky to have a single settlement of 4 people in that time.
I know what 3D printers can make. I also know what they can't make. They can't make the things you need like oxygen, water, food, or shelter. They can make hard components but hard components are not likely to be needed. The settlements will need computer hard drives, computer motherboards, batteries, solar panels, greenhouse panels, and Moxie filters. Those things will come from the earth.
Name all the necessary things that a Martian settlement can make with a 3D printer?
I'm certain that a 3D printer will not be needed on Mars for a very long time.
Louis pointed out that water is easier to obtain on Mars than I surmise? No, it's not. How are you going to capture the water before it turns to vapor?
Wasting greenhouse space to grow bamboo is unreasonable when a person needs oxygen, water, and food, not a new bamboo chair to sit in.
There will be individuals who enjoy the challenges of working in difficult environments who decide to make Mars home? NASA won't deal with them, no way, no how. Crazies don't get on NASA rockets.
Elon Musk might use them, that's a big wild card.
One of the first industries to arise will be plastics manufacturing? No, the first "industry" will be farming in the greenhouse, tending the orchard, growing grains for chicken feed, maintaining algae tanks and fish tanks.
But, plastic manufacturing would be incredibly important, much more important than having a 3D printer, steel production, or bamboo, because you could make greenhouse panels.
I don't know enough about plastic manufacturing to know what it takes but I know it will take a very long time before manufacturing anything other than food on Mars will be more efficient than simply sending that item from the Earth.
Last edited by Dook (2017-04-12 12:14:35)
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As for funding colonisation, my view is that there'll be enough demand from governments to support the establishment of a company to provide transport and in-situ services, and that once this is paid for (by government contracts) the cost will come down low enough for a private venture (funded by a coalition of billionaires who aren't concerned with making a return - yes, they do exist) to establish a small colony, which may be able to fund it's ongoing costs. As time goes on, the cost of both transport and building settlements will continue to drop, until it reaches the point at which the floodgates will open and people will move en-masse to Mars.
I think the first and second part (government bases and private colonies backed by wealthy benefactors) have a good chance of happening in the next few decades. As for a big colonisation wave, that will depend on how difficult it is to terraform Mars - a partially terraformed Mars, where food can be grown in unpressurised greenhouses, would be a lot easier to settle than the present Mars.
There is no demand from governments to support the establishment of companies to go to Mars. Governments don't like competition, it makes them realize how inefficient they are.
Costs don't come down infinitely, they come down to a degree at first and then no matter what you just can't get them any lower. Your floodgates will never open. Colonizing Mars will be a slow process. What's the hurry?
Elon Musk is driven by fantasy. You can't get 1 million people to Mars in 40 years. Can't do it, no way, no how. You can't even get close, can't even get half that. You can't even get 100,000 to Mars in 40 years. He might have 6 people on Mars by that time.
A partially terraformed Mars would be a lot easier to settle than the present Mars? Yes, that might not be possible and even if it is it's very far in the future.
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Just to clarify a few points for those not versed in the chemistry involved with plants. There are 2 sets of reactions involved, the "light mediated, photosynthesis," which produces oxygen as a by-product of making carbohydrates ( plant structure and reproductive products such as fruit, grain, etc.) from Carbon Dioxide and water. Plants also respire as they feed and provide energy to the growing and living cells, the so called "dark reactions," which also liberate Carbon Dioxide. I don't care to go any deeper than this on this website, since I don't have the necessary Chemdraw software available on the present computer. By the way, the number of trees you stated being required to produce Oxygen for a human is off by a factor of three; not 22 but only 7 or 8 trees.
Batteries are the major drawback in massive implementation of monster solar arrays, and the weight there of is enormous. I don't see methane/Oxygen combustion processes as replacing nuclear in the immediate future, either.
But--what can 3-D printing accomplish? Manufacture of mechanical replacement parts for vehicles and other machinery, not limited to hammers.
Last edited by Oldfart1939 (2017-04-12 13:03:44)
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Just to clarify a few points for those not versed in the chemistry involved with plants. There are 2 sets of reactions involved, the "light mediated, photosynthesis," which produces oxygen as a by-product of making carbohydrates ( plant structure and reproductive products such as fruit, grain, etc.) from Carbon Dioxide and water. Plants also respire as they feed and provide energy to the growing and living cells, the so called "dark reactions," which also liberate Carbon Dioxide. I don't care to go any deeper than this on this website, since I don't have the necessary Chemdraw software available on the present computer. By the way, the number of trees you stated being required to produce Oxygen for a human is off by a factor of three; not 22 but only 7 or 8 trees.
Batteries are the major drawback in massive implementation of monster solar arrays, and the weight there of is enormous. I don't see methane/Oxygen combustion processes as replacing nuclear in the immediate future, either.
But--what can 3-D printing accomplish? Manufacture of mechanical replacement parts for vehicles and other machinery, not limited to hammers.
My estimate that it takes 22 trees to provide for one person is wrong and your idea that it's 7-8 trees is correct? Both of us had to look it up, I went with the higher estimate, you went with the lower estimate. If your trees are the size of giant oaks, then I agree, it takes 7 or 8 of them. How are you going to fit seven giant oak trees in your greenhouse? My 22 trees are semi-dwarf fruit trees. Which do you think is more important, giant oak trees or fruit trees?
3D printers can make parts for vehicles? So, rover parts? Which rover parts? I actually designed a Mars rover and posted the idea in the Planetary Transportation section, it's called the Long Range Rover. I can think of no rover part that you could make with a 3D printer other than, maybe, brackets for mounting things to the inside wall of the rover.
3D printers can make parts for other machinery? Moxie parts? Which ones? Pumps? Nope. Tubing? Nope. Electronic components? Nope. Can it make ATV components? Brackets, that's it. Can it make Mars Tuna Can components? Just more brackets, that's about it.
Bracket making is not going to be a need on Mars.
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It's simply absurd to claim settlers won't use Martian ice for water.
In terms of Mars-based manufacture of oxygen, I would like to suggest that a more effective way to produce oxygen is simply to heat iron oxides to 570 celsius (using solar reflectors). That apparently requires 2.5 KwH per Kg of iron oxide. So if 30% of the iron oxide is oxygen, 2.5 KwH per 300 grams of oxygen. If we need each 2.2 Kgs of oxygen per day, that means we need to expend about 19 KwHs of energy inputted per person per sol to get the required amount of oxygen, or about 0.7 Kw at a constant rate. For a base of six people that would be 4.2 KWs. For a planet wide population of 100,000, that's 70 MW. Very doable in my opinion. The advantages of heating iron oxide are (a) it is widely available at the surface (b) it is a much simpler process and (c) the iron can also be used for various purposes including steel making.
A small settlement of 4 people does not require a nuclear power plant to survive. We've been throught that. I've quoted the MIT paper which shows PV plus can do the job. Make methane with the excess PV power, process iron for combustion, convert CO2 to carbon monoxide fuel, take RTGs as back up. There are a number of options.
Making new habitat space for others who follow is straightforward. With an imported digger, dig a trench. Make bricks on Mars to form Roman arches. You may need some Mars-made steel supports. A Mars-wide community of 50 plus will easily be able to produce all this with the help of important scaled down manufacturing machines or 3D printers. There are options for lining e.g. Mars clay. You can now pressurise your habitat space.
Using imported PV panels initially you can heat and light your habitat space. But later solar reflector powered steam generators (to produce electricity) or Mars-made PV panels can be used as your power source. Use the equivalent of night storage heaters (heated bricks for night time heating).
Analogue air will be pumped in from a central facility.
Terraformer wrote:Dook, would you be willing to place a long bet on the probability of Mars colonisation? Say, that by 2120 there won't be any human settlement on Mars except for a few scientific outposts, which is what you seem to be claiming will be the case?
Why make a bet that none of us will be around to see?
By 2120 will there be any human settlement on Mars? I think there will be, but it won't be 100,000 people. It might be about 20 in one or two test locations on the equator.
For every small settlement of 4 people you need a small habitat, could be the lander they landed in, you need a very large greenhouse, maybe a 100 foot wide circular dome, you need two Moxie units, one nuclear power plant, a small solar panel farm, and a rover.
So, for just those things it will take about six launches from Earth and all those things won't land at your base, they will be spread out and you will have to somehow go out and get them.
The first settlement will still need yearly resupply of food until they figure out how to do it or if it's even possible to grow enough food. You have to keep your greenhouse warm, even at night when the outside temperature drops to -140. If the plants get cold at the wrong time they will drop their leaves and fruit and go dormant.
They won't harvest Martian ice for water. If they have to do that they're dead already. They will use the water they brought with them.
They won't rocket anything to the Earth. That's an absolute waste and would require an additional ERV launched to Mars.
They won't produce metal components or anything else other than food. Their job will be to farm, tend their chickens, maintain the equipment, dust off the solar panels and greenhouse, their job is to survive, not to make new settlements, and not to explore. Exploration would already be done.
Every new settlement will land on Mars the same way the first one did, it will take about 6 launches of equipment and every settlement will be at the equator.
Every settlement would need periodic resupply of batteries, laptop computers, Moxie parts, rover parts, tuna can components, movies/TV shows/music, and more.
The settlements would be near each other on the equator, one shipment from the Earth could probably bring the parts needed for all settlements. There would be at least one resupply mission a year with food at first then taper off to maybe one resupply every two years, then maybe go to three years.
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It's simply absurd to claim settlers won't use Martian ice for water.
In terms of Mars-based manufacture of oxygen, I would like to suggest that a more effective way to produce oxygen is simply to heat iron oxides to 570 celsius (using solar reflectors). That apparently requires 2.5 KwH per Kg of iron oxide. So if 30% of the iron oxide is oxygen, 2.5 KwH per 300 grams of oxygen. If we need each 2.2 Kgs of oxygen per day, that means we need to expend about 19 KwHs of energy inputted per person per sol to get the required amount of oxygen, or about 0.7 Kw at a constant rate. For a base of six people that would be 4.2 KWs. For a planet wide population of 100,000, that's 70 MW. Very doable in my opinion. The advantages of heating iron oxide are (a) it is widely available at the surface (b) it is a much simpler process and (c) the iron can also be used for various purposes including steel making.
A small settlement of 4 people does not require a nuclear power plant to survive. We've been throught that. I've quoted the MIT paper which shows PV plus can do the job. Make methane with the excess PV power, process iron for combustion, convert CO2 to carbon monoxide fuel, take RTGs as back up. There are a number of options.
Making new habitat space for others who follow is straightforward. With an imported digger, dig a trench. Make bricks on Mars to form Roman arches. You may need some Mars-made steel supports. A Mars-wide community of 50 plus will easily be able to produce all this with the help of important scaled down manufacturing machines or 3D printers. There are options for lining e.g. Mars clay. You can now pressurise your habitat space.
Using imported PV panels initially you can heat and light your habitat space. But later solar reflector powered steam generators (to produce electricity) or Mars-made PV panels can be used as your power source. Use the equivalent of night storage heaters (heated bricks for night time heating).
Analogue air will be pumped in from a central facility.
It's absurd to claim that settlers won't use Martian ice for water? It's absurd to not realize how incredibly fruitless it would be. What you will get is drops of water, not gallons.
If you microwave frozen regolith at the poles the ice will change directly to vapor. It won't go from ice to water, it will go from ice to vapor and be gone.
If you microwave the frozen regolith at the equator the ice will become water, once again, how are you going to power your microwave device? How are you going to collect the dirty water, towels? A vaccuum won't work on Mars because the atmospheric pressure is already a vacuum.
The details make all the difference. You're ignoring them because they prevent you from getting your Mars rock. You were never going to get a Mars rock anyway.
Mars gets half the solar radiation that the Earth gets. So, any solar reflector farm will have to be very large and generally the mirrors point to a single raised point. How are you going to get the iron oxide up to that point? How are you going to collect the super heated oxygen given off? How are you going to collect the molten iron?
A small settlement of 4 on Mars does not require a nuclear power plant to survive? The Moxie unit needs the nuclear power plant. The Moxie needs a lot of power, solar panels won't do it.
Make methane with the excess PV power? There isn't going to be very much excess power. Mars has dust storms, sometimes lasting for a whole year. You're just dismissing the inconvenient details.
Process iron for combustion? What? Combustion? Huhh?
Convert CO2 to carbon monoxide fuel? For what?
Have RTG's as backups? Okay.
None of those things get you food or water or shelter. They get you electricity. Having a lot of electricity is fine but it's not food or water or shelter. Having a lot of electricity doesn't get you more habitats or more greenhouses.
We can just dig a trench and use Martian made bricks for arch support? Any people going to Mars are going to land in a habitat. So why waste time digging a trench, so they can move from the tuna can habitat that already has everything to a cold Martian trench? That's not better, that's worse, much worse. Why would they do that?
Name one component that your 3D printer can make for your Mars trench habitat.
How are you going to pressurize your Martian trench habitat? With what pump? And is it going to be pressurized with Martian CO2? If it's pressurized with oxygen, where are you going to get the pressurized oxygen from?
Using PV panels you can heat and light your space? Electric heating will be used to some degree but it uses a lot of electricity. A small room heater with a fan on it's lowest setting uses 800 watts an hour. That's the power from about seven large PV panels.
Solar reflectors powering steam generators might make power? You could get some power. Since Mars gets half the solar radiation that the Earth gets you need to have a lot of mirrors and the amount of electricity you get would be much less than an Earth system.
Analogue air will be pumped in from a central location? What? What is "analogue" air?
Last edited by Dook (2017-04-12 14:46:52)
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I am consistently amazed at your lack of faith in the ability of humans to find solutions to the problems you come up with! Are you really saying there is no way to capture the H2O vapour when mining ice? There will be ways of lifting solid chunks of ice bearing regolith out of the surface, of that I am sure. We can try out all these techniques in a Mars analogue facility on Earth and Mars analogue terrains on Earth before we get there.
I am not ignoring the difficulties of ISRU, I like to hear about them - it's just I think most can be overcome.
You claim huge power requirements to create oxygen. I've shown how it can be done with the equivalent of 0.7 Kws constant per person , or 4.2 Kws for a six person mission. That is not huge.
A discussion on another thread shows how we can in fact get a Mars analogue air through compression and treatment of the Mars atmosphere.
Whatever method is used, I doubt it is going to be a huge increase on that 0.7Kw per person figure and that is a very modest power requirement, remembering that MIT indicate ultra light weight PV would deliver 100 Kws for 100 x 100 metres of PV panelling. That probably delivers something like 60-70 kws constant for a six mission (MIT's proposal). That will be more than enough for heating, lighting, water recycling and filtering, and air production. The surplus can be devoted to ISRU and agriculture.
By analogue air I mean something v. similar to Earth air - same pressure and same constituent parts, more or less.
We can certainly build air pumps using 3D printers.
The reason we need to build habitats on Mars is that the landers will also be the return craft. Building cut and cover trenches is quick and convenient. I think the early colonists will be highly motivated and prepared to accept this sort of basic accommodation to begin with. The habs won't be cold! They will be heated and highly insulated using locally produced rockwool equivalent from basalt or similar.
It's absurd to claim that settlers won't use Martian ice for water? It's absurd to not realize how incredibly fruitless it would be. What you will get is drops of water, not gallons.
If you microwave frozen regolith at the poles the ice will change directly to vapor. It won't go from ice to water, it will go from ice to vapor and be gone.
If you microwave the frozen regolith at the equator the ice will become water, once again, how are you going to power your microwave device? How are you going to collect the dirty water, towels? A vaccuum won't work on Mars because the atmospheric pressure is already a vacuum.
The details make all the difference. You're ignoring them because they prevent you from getting your Mars rock. You were never going to get a Mars rock anyway.
Mars gets half the solar radiation that the Earth gets. So, any solar reflector farm will have to be very large and generally the mirrors point to a single raised point. How are you going to get the iron oxide up to that point? How are you going to collect the super heated oxygen given off? How are you going to collect the molten iron?
A small settlement of 4 on Mars does not require a nuclear power plant to survive? The Moxie unit needs the nuclear power plant. The Moxie needs a lot of power, solar panels won't do it.
Make methane with the excess PV power? There isn't going to be very much excess power. Mars has dust storms, sometimes lasting for a whole year. You're just dismissing the inconvenient details.
Process iron for combustion? What? Combustion? Huhh?
Convert CO2 to carbon monoxide fuel? For what?
Have RTG's as backups? Okay.
None of those things get you food or water or shelter. They get you electricity. Having a lot of electricity is fine but it's not food or water or shelter. Having a lot of electricity doesn't get you more habitats or more greenhouses.
We can just dig a trench and use Martian made bricks for arch support? Any people going to Mars are going to land in a habitat. So why waste time digging a trench, so they can move from the tuna can habitat that already has everything to a cold Martian trench? That's not better, that's worse, much worse. Why would they do that?
Name one component that your 3D printer can make for your Mars trench habitat.
How are you going to pressurize your Martian trench habitat? With what pump? And is it going to be pressurized with Martian CO2? If it's pressurized with oxygen, where are you going to get the pressurized oxygen from?
Using PV panels you can heat and light your space? Electric heating will be used to some degree but it uses a lot of electricity. A small room heater with a fan on it's lowest setting uses 800 watts an hour. That's the power from about seven large PV panels.
Solar reflectors powering steam generators might make power? You could get some power. Since Mars gets half the solar radiation that the Earth gets you need to have a lot of mirrors and the amount of electricity you get would be much less than an Earth system.
Analogue air will be pumped in from a central location? What? What is "analogue" air?
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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