The Chinese economy is set to implode...

Antius · 2016-12-05 12:27:35

I make this prediction based upon a number of lines of evidence.

1. China now has one of the highest debt to GDP ratios in the world, some 250%, and rising fast.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 … ent-expert

2. Chinese coal production appears to have peaked in 2014/2015. This provides 80% of the non-transport energy supply for the domestic economy.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/06/20/c … s-problem/

3. Chinese oil production has peaked and appears to be declining at 4% per year.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-decl … 1472122393

4. Saudia oil production now appears to have plateaud, despite a 35% increase in drilling rates in the past couple of years. Saudi oil exports are falling fast as domestic consumption growth is 7% per year.
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/co … 1895380679

These facts, taken together suggest that a perfect storm is approaching for China. To keep its exports competitive, the Rembini is kept at artificially low values. That worked a treat as long as the Chinese had abundant low-cost domestic energy sources. As the country's energy imports increase rapidly, a weak currency will tend to fuel inflation. A stronger currency would impact upon the competitiveness of exports, which account for something like 70% of China's GDP. Higher inflation would put pressure on the government to raise wages. Caught between this and an already high level of government debt, investment in infrastructure and industry will be squeezed, sapping economic growth.

In a vain attempt to hold off domestic inflation, Chinese leaders are likely to draw down on their huge foreign exchange reserves. The result would be downward pressure on the value of the dollar, which would tend to push up the price of importsled commodities even further, as most are dollar traded. Against this backdrop, the fall in Saudi production suggests that global oil production is likely to come under increasing strain in years ahead. That suggests higher oil prices on global markets. Good news for US shale producers. Lousy news for just about everyone else.

When China hits this crisis it will be a re-run of the 2008 Great Depression. The difference is that we faced that recession with far lower debt levels than we have now. In the longer term, the weaker dollar and Chinese turmoil will mean tyat Trump can probably make good on his promise of bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US. The same factor will increase the price of consumer goods. On balance, the US will fare better than most. A weaker China is likely to turn to Russia for more and more of its energy. With higher global oil prices, Russia will be less effected by sanctions and will become more of a threat to Eastern Europe than it is already. China will be its ally.

Last edited by Antius (2016-12-05 14:54:59)

Void · 2016-12-05 18:08:59

That is a pretty good reading I would think.

Once again I would suggest a look at Peter Zeihan, https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=pe … ORM=HDRSC3

Query for him, and then request video's. He is in his presentation somewhat redundant, but each video has a twist here and there.

And the Fourth Turning. (And some other stuff we are required to figure out ourselves).

The low cost producers (Labor) will be SE Asia, and Mexico. Mexico costs less than China, and has a higher quality work force. So, that's not so good for China doing what it has done since Nixon made a deal with them.

The Soviet Union is also no more. So, we might get a favor or two from the Russians, if we offer them a favor or two. Their situation is not that great, and it is nonsense to try to break up their country. Only an idiot would contemplate doing that.

In spite of ourselves, and maybe in other cases because of the genius of my betters, we have been delt a really good hand of cards. We shall see if "Trump" is a good card player.

Last edited by Void (2016-12-05 18:24:33)

Tom Kalbfus · 2016-12-05 22:35:20

Antius wrote:

I make this prediction based upon a number of lines of evidence.
1. China now has one of the highest debt to GDP ratios in the world, some 250%, and rising fast.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 … ent-expert
2. Chinese coal production appears to have peaked in 2014/2015. This provides 80% of the non-transport energy supply for the domestic economy.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/06/20/c … s-problem/
3. Chinese oil production has peaked and appears to be declining at 4% per year.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-decl … 1472122393
4. Saudia oil production now appears to have plateaud, despite a 35% increase in drilling rates in the past couple of years. Saudi oil exports are falling fast as domestic consumption growth is 7% per year.
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/co … 1895380679
These facts, taken together suggest that a perfect storm is approaching for China. To keep its exports competitive, the Rembini is kept at artificially low values. That worked a treat as long as the Chinese had abundant low-cost domestic energy sources. As the country's energy imports increase rapidly, a weak currency will tend to fuel inflation. A stronger currency would impact upon the competitiveness of exports, which account for something like 70% of China's GDP. Higher inflation would put pressure on the government to raise wages. Caught between this and an already high level of government debt, investment in infrastructure and industry will be squeezed, sapping economic growth.
In a vain attempt to hold off domestic inflation, Chinese leaders are likely to draw down on their huge foreign exchange reserves. The result would be downward pressure on the value of the dollar, which would tend to push up the price of importsled commodities even further, as most are dollar traded. Against this backdrop, the fall in Saudi production suggests that global oil production is likely to come under increasing strain in years ahead. That suggests higher oil prices on global markets. Good news for US shale producers. Lousy news for just about everyone else.
When China hits this crisis it will be a re-run of the 2008 Great Depression. The difference is that we faced that recession with far lower debt levels than we have now. In the longer term, the weaker dollar and Chinese turmoil will mean tyat Trump can probably make good on his promise of bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US. The same factor will increase the price of consumer goods. On balance, the US will fare better than most. A weaker China is likely to turn to Russia for more and more of its energy. With higher global oil prices, Russia will be less effected by sanctions and will become more of a threat to Eastern Europe than it is already. China will be its ally.

Does Russia want that? We have time to hand out the nukes to Eastern European countries. Ukraine gets some, so does Poland, the Baltic Republics and so on! Russia gains nothing from a nuclear war, and also Putin will be missing his greatest asset, Barack Obama as President. We simply need a US President to stand up to Putin and say to him, "If you do X, we will do Y!"

Void · 2016-12-05 22:54:20

Antius like people consider who do you want to share results with? Choose wisely.

Void · 2016-12-06 17:59:22

Here are some reading materials for you Tom.
http://www.1913intel.com/2016/12/06/tru … l-futures/
Quote:

Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar | Geopolitical Futures
December 6, 2016 Matt
Trump signaled to China that he can take away what Nixon gave them. By doing what Nixon did – using volatility and unpredictability to intimidate – Trump set the stage for a negotiation that China can’t refuse.

Now look at this map, and think about what we could get if we crushed Russia (If they would not nuke us first).
th?id=OIP.Md5f13b1a59672b87415acb407bc36227o0&w=137&h=106&c=8&rs=1&qlt=90&pid=3.1&rm=2

Do you see that they are between us an a lot of things we like much less? So, their military protecting Russia, also protects North America. And we don't have to pay a dime of shed blood for it.

And here is a video from Peter Zeihan, which is interesting.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=pe … ORM=VRDGAR
As I see it we can get a lot more from China and Russia with a carrot than a stick. They both have big issues coming.

Last edited by Void (2016-12-06 18:14:59)

Tom Kalbfus · 2016-12-10 00:44:51

Void wrote:

Here are some reading materials for you Tom.
http://www.1913intel.com/2016/12/06/tru … l-futures/
Quote:
Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar | Geopolitical Futures
December 6, 2016 Matt
Trump signaled to China that he can take away what Nixon gave them. By doing what Nixon did – using volatility and unpredictability to intimidate – Trump set the stage for a negotiation that China can’t refuse.
Now look at this map, and think about what we could get if we crushed Russia (If they would not nuke us first).
https://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.Md5f … d=3.1&rm=2
Do you see that they are between us an a lot of things we like much less? So, their military protecting Russia, also protects North America. And we don't have to pay a dime of shed blood for it.
And here is a video from Peter Zeihan, which is interesting.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=pe … ORM=VRDGAR
As I see it we can get a lot more from China and Russia with a carrot than a stick. They both have big issues coming.

Oh I quite agree! But I also see them supporting countries like Iran and North Korea, part of what motivates the Russians and the Chinese is their rivalry with us. In China, their rivalry with is getting in the way of their doing mutually beneficial business with us. In Russia, their wounded pride at "losing" the Cold War has gotten in the way of their having beneficial trade relationships with the rest of Europe and the United States. I say "the rest of Europe" and not Western Europe because there is no "Western Europe" if there is no "Eastern Europe" and right now Eastern Europe doesn't exist, it is only one country called Russia! West and East are meaningless geographical distinctions in the Europe of today, geography doesn't determine their outlook. What was once Eastern Europe was the result of the way World War II ended, it ended with the Russian Army occupying more than half of Europe and holding these other Eastern European countries captive, they determined their governments and their government's foreign policies and defense postures. The people of those countries had little say in what those Russian controlled governments did, now they do, and so now there is no longer any Eastern Europe. When Russia calls a country, such as Poland, an Eastern European country, that just means it wants to conquer them. We need to convince Russia that their is more benefit in trade than in conquest. Russia has more land than it needs, what it needs to do really is convince foreigner to immigrate and become Russian citizens, and Russia's economy can grow.

If Hitler didn't exist, Russia might have started World War II, and if Russia was defeated, Russia as a defeated country would probably be better off today than it is now, much as Germany benefitted by losing World War II! Since Russia wasn't defeated in World War II, it wasn't reorganized by the victorious allies, it wasn't set on its feet by a new democratic government, it received no aid from the Marshall plan. The average Russian citizen would have been wealthier than they are now. The funny thing is, what the Russians want isn't necessarily the best thing for them.

Void · 2016-12-10 09:05:46

I see some merit in your arguments Tom. However, we have to be careful to look after American national interests first.

Significant numbers of Americans descend from what I call "Near Slov" peoples. It may create a bias which is against American national interests.

I tend to refer to the Russians and their like as the "Far Slov's". We don't have as many of them.

The fracture between them goes back to the partitioning of the Roman Empire into a West and East section.

The people I call near slov tended to adopt a more "Western" (Roman) cultural revision, and the people I call far slov tended to adopt thinking from the Byzantine Empire (Eastern Roman (Greek)) heritage.

When we do what we are doing, supporting the near (Western) slovs against the far slovs. It looks like an aggression to the far slovs, as if we have entered on one side of a very ancient division. We should be careful to not be sucked into the agenda of the near slovs against the national interests of the USA. That is not to say that it is always wrong to support the near (western) slovs, but we should be aware that there is some very deep architecture which may cost us dearly if we blindly blunder into the hidden agenda of either polarity.

First and foremost we are to protect the American representative republic. If we have time and energy and probability of success to influence others to adopt what we think is the right way to behave, then fine. But not at the expense of our American representative republic.

I think that too often we look at an alien way of life and think that we have a duty to alter it. No, our primary duty is to protect the local, and to most hope to work with adjacent countries that wish to approximately do similar to us.

Last edited by Void (2016-12-10 09:14:43)

Tom Kalbfus · 2016-12-10 18:30:36

If the "Near Slavs" come out of the Western Roman tradition, they therefore don't belong to the Russians, by protecting them, we are simply protecting our own culture. Russia is a great empire, it has a lot of land. much more land than it has people to fill it.

This is a huge country, and look at the rest of Europe sitting next to it, it looks small compared to Russia doesn't it? Why should Russia feel threatened by our protecting that? the countries we are protecting begin with Georgia and go all the way up to Norway, the whole area west of that line is in essence, Western Europe, and as you can see, Russia has the Eastern half plus a huge swath of Asia as well!

Void · 2016-12-10 20:28:12

Do you grasp the notion of an ancient rivalry between the Poles and the Russians, where the Russians regard the Poles as members of the Slavic peoples who betray the Slovs by being too cozy with the so called "West"?

Now then Nato denied the Western or Near Slovs to Russia. At the same time they denied the Mediterranean eastern orthodox peoples to the Russians as well.

Crimea was a Russified part of Russia in the time of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikita_Khrushchev.

For some reason the Russian/Soviets decided to put take Crimea out of Russia and add it to Ukraine.

Eastern Ukraine is typically eastern orthodox and has a lot of Russian identification. Western Ukraine relates better to the Polish side of the contest.

Our geniuses decided to press upon the Ukraine and tip it to the west. Actually prior agreements with the Soviets had indicated that the west would not threaten Russian by doing such things.

Crimea was absolutely indispensable to the Russian military position, and in fact mostly does identify with Russia, so the Russians did what they did.

Now you can argue right and wrong as much as you want, but the Russians aren't being jerks, they have an alternate alien view of what is going on, and they are not amused.

Right and wrong is not going to cut it here. We don't have the binding force to bring all of the Europeans under one house. I would have loved to see it done from Iberia to Siberia (In a decent manner, not damaging Russian or other peoples interests), but that is completely out of reach. We can't make that lift. We just don't have what it takes.

So, knowing that Europe is to remain fractured, we have to come up with a plan that works for America, and is reasonably moral, to work with each part of the fractured Europe.

And I can tell you my calculations indicate that Scandinavians, Slovs (Near and Far), and Sino's will be in the ascendency for 512 years in general, and many others will be in decline for that time period. Our great fortune as Americans is that we can function in all worlds.

So, it is stupid to annoy the Slovs.

Last edited by Void (2016-12-10 20:28:59)

Tom Kalbfus · 2016-12-10 21:59:46

Void wrote:

Do you grasp the notion of an ancient rivalry between the Poles and the Russians, where the Russians regard the Poles as members of the Slavic peoples who betray the Slovs by being too cozy with the so called "West"?

I have Polish members of my family, and believe me, they do not consider themselves Russians! I do not feel inclined to abandon members of my family to the Russians. My father in law was forced to work in a coal mine by the Russians because he owned too much land, in other words he was a slave.

Now then Nato denied the Western or Near Slovs to Russia. At the same time they denied the Mediterranean eastern orthodox peoples to the Russians as well.

Greeks aren't Russians.

Crimea was a Russified part of Russia in the time of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikita_Khrushchev.
For some reason the Russian/Soviets decided to put take Crimea out of Russia and add it to Ukraine.

Yes an irrevocable decision, just like the sale of Alaska to the US was.

Eastern Ukraine is typically eastern orthodox and has a lot of Russian identification. Western Ukraine relates better to the Polish side of the contest.

So we split the country, the Russian annex their part, and we bribe the Western Part of Ukraine to accept this arrangement by giving them nuclear weapons, since they started out having nuclear weapons and gave them up only upon condition that the Russians respect their borders and they have not, so if Russia reneged, then we give Ukraine nuclear weapons, to guarantee that Russia doesn't try for a further land grab in the future.

Our geniuses decided to press upon the Ukraine and tip it to the west. Actually prior agreements with the Soviets had indicated that the west would not threaten Russian by doing such things.

It was Ukraine's decision, because strangely enough, they did not want to be Russian puppets.

Crimea was absolutely indispensable to the Russian military position, and in fact mostly does identify with Russia, so the Russians did what they did.

Okay so the Western half gets nuclear weapons as a successor state to the Soviet Union, which the UN recognized as a nuclear power, they should also get a permanent seat on the Security Council just like the Russians have. This is the price the Russians should pay to keep the land they took. No one need die, there doesn't have to be a war, I want peace just as much as you. if the Russians don't pay a price, there won't be peace.

Now you can argue right and wrong as much as you want, but the Russians aren't being jerks, they have an alternate alien view of what is going on, and they are not amused.

Too bad, if the want the land, they are going to have to pay a price for it, that is all I ask, it cannot be a straight robbery, because then the Russians will be tempted to rob again and their won't be peace. if you like, we can bring all the Western Ukrainians to the United States and the Russians can get all their land empty of people, do you think they would like that? We would gain all the talent and skills of those Ukrainian immigrants and they can become American citizens, an Russia gets a little bigger, would that be okay?

Right and wrong is not going to cut it here. We don't have the binding force to bring all of the Europeans under one house.

Most of the Europeans agree that they don't want to be invaded and occupied by Russia, the only one who disagrees with that is Russia itself. Russia is all alone in the World, it has no friends, not s long as it acts like a brute and a bully. Most Europeans would like the Russians to change their behavior, and they would be happy to trade with them. Look again at that map of Russia, it is huge! You can fit several Europes within the existing territory of Russia!

You know what Russia really needs? A lot of immigrants, there is plenty of land there, Russia could be the land of opportunity, it just needs to provide the right incentive to get people to immigrate there, just like the United States did in the 19th century. Why does Russia need to grab these little countries on its periphery, it has more land than it can use! Instead of grabbing other people's countries and forcing the people that live their to become Russians, why don't they just try to incentivize people to immigrate there and start a new life? I'm sure there are plenty of people would would choose to go if provided the opportunity?

I would have loved to see it done from Iberia to Siberia (In a decent manner, not damaging Russian or other peoples interests), but that is completely out of reach. We can't make that lift. We just don't have what it takes.

What would the United States do if it was the "United States of Eurasia" and it had that land instead of Russia? Do you think we would invade Ukraine? All the immigrants who would go to North America would instead come to us. We would get a lot of Chinese and Indian immigrants. What the Russians need to do is act in a peaceful manner and stop invading its neighbors! "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you." I believe the Russians have that in their bible. Here is the Russian translation: Делаете другим, что бы вы их делать вам.

So, knowing that Europe is to remain fractured, we have to come up with a plan that works for America, and is reasonably moral, to work with each part of the fractured Europe.

But you see Europe is part of our family, and we do not abandon our family. Do you have family members in Europe, do you want the Russians enslaving them as they did my father in law during the Cold War?

And I can tell you my calculations indicate that Scandinavians, Slovs (Near and Far), and Sino's will be in the ascendency for 512 years in general, and many others will be in decline for that time period. Our great fortune as Americans is that we can function in all worlds.
So, it is stupid to annoy the Slovs.

We annoyed Hitler. We couldn't help it really, Hitler wanted to be master of Europe, Great Britain said no, it could have said yes, and London would have been spared the bombing it received, World War II would have been over, the Japs would not have bombed Pearl Harbor then, there would have been nothing FDR could have done, unless he wanted to start another war, and I don't think the US Congress would have supported him if he did. The Jews of Europe would have been as good as dead, there would be no rescue for them.

Last edited by Tom Kalbfus (2016-12-10 22:36:07)

Void · 2016-12-10 23:08:10

I think that still you do not understand, there is a calculation to everything. None of us can avoid it except to be greater than normal. Even then the chances are small. Do you understand that you are misunderstanding reality?

If you insist on failing, then the consequences will be on you I am afraid.

This dialog is ended as far as I am concerned.

Tom Kalbfus · 2016-12-11 08:59:28

The reality is, I am not willing to give up half of Europe to the Russians to make them happy, if they want to start a nuclear war over that, then we're all going to die, but just remember, the Russians are committing suicide too if they do that. I don't feel that we should give up our principles just to live a little longer, we need to hold the line. The Russians lost Eastern Europe, and they aren't getting it back for free. If we give it to them, they will want more just like Hitler did when we gave him Czechoslovakia. Abandoning our principles, and basically selling the Eastern Europeans into slavery is no way to sustain World peace. I have family in Poland, maybe you don't, but I'm not selling my family into slavery. If we all die because of that, fine. I'm not going to live forever anyway, I am almost 50, might as well die adhering to my principles, because even if there is no nuclear war, I'm still going to die. Also better to die free than to live as a slave. That is my final point.

Last edited by Tom Kalbfus (2016-12-11 08:59:58)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2024-04-14 11:16:29

predictions you either get many of them wrong or live long enough to see some of them become correct

eventually it may happen but what decade ...what Millennium, what Century?

more on the homosexual anti-American weirdo Pedo-Zeihan doing his Same ol' S**t globalism sales man buy my book routine

In Palm Beach lecture, geopolitical expert says Chinese economic collapse...bla bla

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/loc … 028709007/

he seems to be over his hissy fit against Elon Musk and return to Social Media after saying he was done and would quit twitter forever

Zeihan went more downbeat in recent months now does ‘Post American’ series

the latest prediction of his says Argentina will take revenge on the English and Destroy all British!

Argentina will defeat the British militarily and conquer the Falklands ... Dale, dale, dale! ¡Vamos equipo! ¡Aplausos para nuestro equipo! ...A tope, sin miedo!
Islas Malvinas Libre !!!

https://zeihan.com/argentina-after-america/

Argentina gets revenge beats England???

He said India would be one of the greatest and France in its strongest position, said Giorgia Meloni of Italy would be the New Hitler and Luftwaffe people back into gas chambers....so is Peter Z a crank?

and the other Dictator Tyrant,

Moscow concert hall attackers first headed for Belarus, says Lukashenko, contradicting Putin claim they fled to Ukraine
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia- … ting-putin

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2024-04-14 11:20:40)

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The Chinese economy is set to implode...

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#9 2016-12-10 20:28:12

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#11 2016-12-10 23:08:10

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