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At what time do you think we will have our first Martian "Pilgrims"? That is have groups of families finance a ship and transport themselves across interplanetary space to Mars and set up their own "Plymouth colony" on the surface of Mars?
What do you think such a "Mayflower" would look like?
In what era do you think such a thing could happen? Let me throw out some dates just to get started:
a) 2001 to 2033 AD
b) 2034 to 2066 AD
c) 2067 to 2100 AD
d) Other, please specify.
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(b). Also (d) - never.
That is, I think we'll see private colonisation between 2034 and 2066, but I don't think the colonists will be hiring a whole ship and setting up on their own straight away. More that they'll be renting berths on spaceliners, and living for a while in an existing colony whilst they get ready to set up their own.
For the next two decades, I think we'll be seeing a lot of activity in cis-lunar space. Possibly a manned mission to other planets, but I think colonisation will be focused on Luna for a while, which will have an economy based on tourism and support for space-based mining, with some residential space for people who don't need to commute to jobs on Terra (successful artists, wealthy retirees etc).
Use what is abundant and build to last
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(b). Also (d) - never.
That is, I think we'll see private colonisation between 2034 and 2066, but I don't think the colonists will be hiring a whole ship and setting up on their own straight away. More that they'll be renting berths on spaceliners, and living for a while in an existing colony whilst they get ready to set up their own.
For the next two decades, I think we'll be seeing a lot of activity in cis-lunar space. Possibly a manned mission to other planets, but I think colonisation will be focused on Luna for a while, which will have an economy based on tourism and support for space-based mining, with some residential space for people who don't need to commute to jobs on Terra (successful artists, wealthy retirees etc).
The Moon is also part of Earth's info-sphere or it could be. With text messaging a 2⅔ second delay is acceptable. Real time communications will be more formal, people will have their say and then pause for the other to reply, there will be no breaking into conversation as usually happens between two or more people talking on Earth. The Moon can be thought of as the Eight Continent. But I think part of the reason for the Pilgrims establishing their colony was the isolation from Mother England, so they can run their own church, for a group like that, Mars maybe more attractive than the Moon. People back on Earth will be participating in all sorts of decisions made on the Moon in near real time, just as it happened during the Apollo program.
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Demographic changes in the Western world will make western traditions like 'Thanks Giving' irrelevant within the next few decades. Thanksgiving has cultural significance to the WASP community in the US, because it is part of their specific ethnic history. But this group has already dropped to about 30% of the US population. How much relevance will Thanks Giving have to a largely Asian/Black/Hispanic US population? The same is true in Europe.
Cultural traditions and personal identity is closely linked to your personal ethnic background. They do not transfer just because a person happens to be born in a certain place. Future Martians are more likely to be celebrating Chinese new year than thanks giving or St Patrick's day.
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Your assessment of the US population is inaccurate:
December 23, 2011
Christianity Remains Dominant Religion in the United States
by Frank Newport
______________________________________________
Majority still says religion is very important in their lives
PRINCETON, NJ -- This Christmas season, 78% of American adults identify with some form of Christian religion. Less than 2% are Jewish, less than 1% are Muslim, and 15% do not have a religious identity. This means that 95% of all Americans who have a religious identity are Christians.
What is your religious preference -- are you Protestant, Roman Catholic, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, another religion, or no religion? (If respondent names "another religion," ask: Would that be a Christian religion or is it not a Christian religion?) January-November 2011 results
These results are based on a compilation of 327,244 interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking from January-November 2011. The detailed breakdown shows that about a third of American Christians are Catholics, while two-thirds identify as Protestants or some other non-Catholic Christian religion. All in all, 82.5% of Americans have some form of religious identity.
Gallup's methods of measuring religious identity have changed over the decades, but one major trend that is clear from Gallup's and other organizations' surveys is the increase in the percentage of Americans who do not have a formal religious identity. Some 60 years ago, in 1951, for example, just 1% of Americans in Gallup surveys said they didn't have a religious identity. At that time, Gallup classified 68% of Americans as identifying with a non-Catholic Christian faith, and 24% who were Catholic.
Separate Gallup questioning earlier this year shows that 92% of Americans say they believe in God. This suggests that the lack of a religious identity is not in and of itself a sign of the total absence of religiosity.
Additionally, in two separate surveys conducted in May and in late November/early December of this year, an average of 55% of Americans said religion is very important in their lives, another 26% said it is fairly important, and 19% said it is not very important.
Americans' self-reported importance of religion has remained broadly stable over the past three or four decades, with a slight increase in the percentage saying religion is not very important, and a slight decrease in the percentage saying it is fairly important. Surveys conducted in the 1950s and 1960s showed a higher percentage saying religion was very important.
Bottom Line
The United States remains a predominantly Christian nation, with 78% of all adults identifying with a Christian faith, and more than 9 in 10 of those who have a religious identity identifying as Christians. Fifteen percent of Americans do not have a formal religious identity, a continuation of a dramatic change from 50 and 60 years ago, when almost all Americans identified with a particular religion. The precise implications of the increase in the "no religious identity" segment are not clear, given that more than 9 in 10 Americans say they believe in God, and that 8 in 10 say religion is a very or fairly important part of their lives.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup Daily tracking survey Jan. 2-Nov. 30, 2011, with a random sample of 327,244 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For more details on Gallup's polling methodology, visit www.gallup.com.
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I am talking about the WASP populations (White-AngloSaxon-Protestant). This is the population for which 'thanks giving' has specific meaning - the drivers of american tradition as it stands. They were the dominant US ethnic group until relatively recently and are a subset of the your protestant christian population (which is 52% of your sample set). They are shrinking in both proportion and absolute number quite rapidly, now about a third of US population.
My point is that demographic change is changing western culture. It is becoming progressively less western as we would understand it. The cultural traditions celebrated by the majority of americans in 20 years time will be quite different to what is celebrated today. Whether you consider that a good thing or not, depends upon which side of the fence you are on.
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I don't think you can be so sure. Thanksgiving seems to be celebrated by lot's of people who can't trace their ancestry back to the pilgrims from the Mayflower - Germans, Italians, Irish etc. I don't think that we can be sure that Hispanic immigrants won't pick that up as part of their assimilation.
Use what is abundant and build to last
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I don't think you can be so sure. Thanksgiving seems to be celebrated by lot's of people who can't trace their ancestry back to the pilgrims from the Mayflower - Germans, Italians, Irish etc. I don't think that we can be sure that Hispanic immigrants won't pick that up as part of their assimilation.
I know quite a few Hispanics, and even Jews who celebrate Thanksgiving, it is not a religious holiday specific to one religion or group of religions, but an American holiday!
I am talking about the WASP populations (White-AngloSaxon-Protestant). This is the population for which 'thanks giving' has specific meaning - the drivers of american tradition as it stands. They were the dominant US ethnic group until relatively recently and are a subset of the your protestant christian population (which is 52% of your sample set). They are shrinking in both proportion and absolute number quite rapidly, now about a third of US population.
Not all the people at that first Thanksgiving were white, some were Indians. I believe the fastest growing subset of Christians are Evangelicals, and they are mostly Protestant, anyway you are from Europe, here in American, Catholic is just another denomination of Christianity. A lot of people came to America to escape the stupid wars of the 1600s between Catholic and Protestant.
My point is that demographic change is changing western culture. It is becoming progressively less western as we would understand it. The cultural traditions celebrated by the majority of americans in 20 years time will be quite different to what is celebrated today. Whether you consider that a good thing or not, depends upon which side of the fence you are on.
Are you aware of that terrorist incident by non-westerners that just occurred in California? I think Trump is going to get elected, and he's going to "slam the door" on all the non-westerners that want to come here and blow us all up! We've had a good sampling of "Non-Western Civilization" and we don't like it! There is too much violence in the Non-Western World, too much fanaticism, too many wars, we don't need these people coming into our borders and spreading their societal ills! America used to be about those two great oceans that isolate us from the rest of the world. those two great oceans don't work if we keep flying people in from the sickest part of the world. America is a frontier country and with a little luck, it will be so again!
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That's a generous effort to understand Terraformer.
I don't think you can be so sure. Thanksgiving seems to be celebrated by lot's of people who can't trace their ancestry back to the pilgrims from the Mayflower - Germans, Italians, Irish etc. I don't think that we can be sure that Hispanic immigrants won't pick that up as part of their assimilation.
I have relatives that are mixes of perhaps 8 different things. Not all of them the same mixes either. So far, very good.
As for me, I am a mix of very old N.A. (Wasp) going all the way back, and I am also 3rd generation immigrant line.
At a recent family gathering were people with Swedish, Scotch, English(WASP), German, Mongol, Bohunk(Figure it out). And that leaves out lots of the other stuff my other relatives and associates have. I also have some French https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huguenot in the so called "Engish" part.
Had we had other relatives we would have had part Norwegians, Irish, Finlander, Native American, Italian, and Southern type white, whatever that is. (Probably Scotch-Irish I am guessing. We often don't even bother to ask anymore).
Where is the isolated tribe of dying Wasps?
We recently entered the Anti-Anti-Colonial era, by my estimation. Some people need to update their thinking about what is real, and what justice is, and when to apply mercy.
Last edited by Void (2015-12-04 10:22:17)
I am starting to ask seriously "Why do I do this?"
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That's a generous effort to understand Terraformer.
I don't think you can be so sure. Thanksgiving seems to be celebrated by lot's of people who can't trace their ancestry back to the pilgrims from the Mayflower - Germans, Italians, Irish etc. I don't think that we can be sure that Hispanic immigrants won't pick that up as part of their assimilation.
I have relatives that are mixes of perhaps 8 different things. Not all of them the same mixes either. So far, very good.
As for me, I am a mix of very old N.A. (Wasp) going all the way back, and I am also 3rd generation immigrant line.
At a recent family gathering were people with Swedish, Scotch, English(WASP), German, Mongol, Bohunk(Figure it out). And that leaves out lots of the other stuff my other relatives and associates have. I also have some French https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huguenot in the so called "Engish" part.
Had we had other relatives we would have had part Norwegians, Irish, Finlander, Native American, Italian, and Southern type white, whatever that is. (Probably Scotch-Irish I am guessing. We often don't even bother to ask anymore).
Where is the isolated tribe of dying Wasps?
We recently entered the Anti-Anti-Colonial era, by my estimation. Some people need to update their thinking about what is real, and what justice is, and when to apply mercy.
This has started because of all the recent terrorist attacks, people realize that the people who died, did not deserve to die! Third Worlders coming here to kill more Americans even after we made a withdrawal from Iraq, maybe people are coming to realize that Third Worlders can be wrong as well.
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There will be other traditional holidays that will come into play depending on the national of the crew that gets to go but also of there own respective life experiences.....and not just a thanks for giving......
To go along with this topic is a Martian Calender - I have created a martian calender...
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Trump will never be president, because it is my belief that the American people as a whole are simply not that stupid. The guy is nothing but a demagogue spewing fear and hate, hoping to win votes on that basis. He differs very little from Adolf Hitler back in the 1920's, in Germany.
If by some mischance he is elected, he has not the intestinal fortitude, the basic predilection, nor the patience to serve out even one full term. He will resign before 4 years is up. In America, the job of "president" is NOT equal to the job of "king", which in Trump's empire is the only thing he has ever done. He WILL NOT like being president. He does nothing he does not like, such is the influence of big money.
I honestly feel sorry for folks so deluded as to think Trump is politically attractive in any way. Fools all.
That being said, there really are evil people out there wanting to do harm to the US (and every other nation that is part of western culture). These people will eat up much of our spendable resources for a long time to come, especially when you factor-in just how incompetent government bureaucracies really are. So, don't hold your breath for a manned Mars mission anytime soon, from the likes of NASA or any other government space agency anywhere on this globe.
Your hopes should be pinned on the likes of Spacex and the other small minority of commercial companies that really are visionary. So very few are. And you must remember that they are also quite fallible, and not anywhere near as knowledgeable as we'd like to presume. None yet know (really) how to go back into deep space with men. Not yet.
GW
Last edited by GW Johnson (2015-12-08 14:46:00)
GW Johnson
McGregor, Texas
"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew, especially one dead from a bad management decision"
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Trump will never be president, because it is my belief that the American people as a whole are simply not that stupid. The guy is nothing but a demagogue spewing fear and hate, hoping to win votes on that basis. He differs very little from Adolf Hitler back in the 1920's, in Germany.
Tell me, was Adolf Hitler ever a billionaire, that is before he got elected Chancellor of Germany and became Fuhrer? They have one thing in common though, the were both riding a tide of anger, there is also the undeniable fact that Trump is ahead of the polls, so leaving your emotions aside, I think their is a good chance he will be President, he's not even my first choice, I like Ted Cruz, but I can't ignore those numbers and the fact that he stayed ahead in the polls for the last six months. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on Donald Trump at this moment.
If by some mischance he is elected, he has not the intestinal fortitude, the basic predilection, nor the patience to serve out even one full term.
You are expressing only your wish based on your dislike of the man, also he is a billionaire, not a delicate flower!
He will resign before 4 years is up. In America, the job of "president" is NOT equal to the job of "king", which in Trump's empire is the only thing he has ever done. He WILL NOT like being president. He does nothing he does not like, such is the influence of big money.
Being President fits his ego quite nicely, I never said he didn't have a big ego.
I honestly feel sorry for folks so deluded as to think Trump is politically attractive in any way. Fools all.
And you probably think Hillary is great and honest right?
That being said, there really are evil people out there wanting to do harm to the US (and every other nation that is part of western culture). These people will eat up much of our spendable resources for a long time to come, especially when you factor-in just how incompetent government bureaucracies really are. So, don't hold your breath for a manned Mars mission anytime soon, from the likes of NASA or any other government space agency anywhere on this globe.
Oh Trump factors them in all right, that is why he goes around them and avoids them where ever possible, its called getting things done!
Your hopes should be pinned on the likes of Spacex and the other small minority of commercial companies that really are visionary. So very few are. And you must remember that they are also quite fallible, and not anywhere near as knowledgeable as we'd like to presume. None yet know (really) how to go back into deep space with men. Not yet.
GW
SpaceX was founded by another billionaire, like Trump.
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We're getting into politics. Dangerous. I had created a separate thread for that, but it was closed. The purpose of that thread was to remove politics from discussions like this one. Now you guys are doing it here.
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True and the moderators as well as the admin's can close this topic as well if it continues....
I will try to open it.... now open http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=7317
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I'm sorry, I let my disgust with some of the things going on around me, get to me. I apologize. My opinion stands, but is not germane to this discussion.
Back to the subject: I think holidays will get celebrated on Mars by whoever is there and whenever it occurs. That will start with tiny bands of explorers in small experimental stations, be they something like Mars Direct, or something perhaps a little larger to ensure their safe return.
It'll happen the very first time humans go there, because of the long trip times with our current space travel technologies. Turkey-and-dressing from a squeeze tube, well, maybe not so appetizing, but it's the thought that counts. I hope the microgravity disease problem gets addressed before we attempt this, or we will kill them during Earth reentry right as they come home. On a free return, that's likely a 15-gee ride.
These experimental stations are not settlements, though. It'll take at least one well-conceived experimental station to test out practical ways to live off the land on Mars, before any permanent settlements should even be considered. Ideally, we should do several of these, but money (and worse distractions) may restrict us to only one. It had better be a good (and effective) one.
My guess is that a commercial visionary, or perhaps a consortium of them, will beat NASA to Mars to accomplish this. I hope they have the vision to set up that experimental station properly when they go. That could possibly happen before 2030 if the motivations crystallize, but a bit later is more likely.
Assuming we really do the learn how to live off the land, and (critically) where best to attempt this, from that first trip, then a settlement becomes feasible. I submit that we need to pull out a disused, never-developed technology to accomplish that: nuclear pulse propulsion. It works best in gigantic ships, and that is exactly what you need to plant colonies.
We have to build and launch them from home (very carefully), but I'd bet we end up basing them from cislunar space to avoid the EMP effects upon home of operating that drive. EMP is actually a worse side effect than the fallout.
To base that way, we will have to really and truly solve the cheap LEO access and cheap lunar transport problems. So my guess is that this won't happen until rather late in the century. Massive investments in space seem very unlikely in a world convulsed in terrorist wars. That prospect will dog us for a long time, it has already dragged on for decades, intensifying the whole time.
GW
GW Johnson
McGregor, Texas
"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew, especially one dead from a bad management decision"
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Why would people on Mars eat turkey out of a tube?
1) Mars has gravity, you could eat a bowl of soup out of a bowl with a spoon, granted the soup will weigh only one third of what it does on Earth, but if one is careful about handling the soup, it will remain in the bowl.
2) Turkeys would be easier to raise on Mars than Chickens, Turkeys are less likely to fly around under that low gravity than chickens.
3) Also after killing the turkeys for food, it is not worth the trouble of getting that meat in a tube so it can be consumed like a tube of toothpaste.
My real question is when we'll have that situation of Pilgrims on Mars, with a similar number of people financing a trip to Mars to escape religious persecution on Earth, or at least to be left alone so they can worship as they please? So what do you think, would the first colony on Mars be more like Plymouth, Massachusetts, or Jamestown, Virginia?
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Despite their weight, wild turkeys, unlike their domesticated counterparts, are agile fliers. In ideal habitat of open woodland or wooded grasslands, they may fly beneath the canopy top and find perches. They usually fly close to the ground for no more than 400 m (a quarter mile).
Young domestic turkeys readily fly short distances, perch and roost. These behaviours become less frequent as the birds mature, but adults will readily climb on objects such as bales of straw.
The main reason domestic turkeys don't fly is their weight. The weight to wing ratio makes flight difficult. That's in Earth gravity, they would have no trouble flying in Mars gravity.
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Thank you GW and Tom.....
RobertDyck I am still Laughing but I actually have wild turkeys that were being reintroduced in the area. Last year there were about 50 or so that would feed through the yard but that was before the harsh winter desease that came and I have only seen about a dozen this year.
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I'm sorry, I let my disgust with some of the things going on around me, get to me. I apologize. My opinion stands, but is not germane to this discussion.
Back to the subject: I think holidays will get celebrated on Mars by whoever is there and whenever it occurs. That will start with tiny bands of explorers in small experimental stations, be they something like Mars Direct, or something perhaps a little larger to ensure their safe return.
It'll happen the very first time humans go there, because of the long trip times with our current space travel technologies. Turkey-and-dressing from a squeeze tube, well, maybe not so appetizing, but it's the thought that counts. I hope the microgravity disease problem gets addressed before we attempt this, or we will kill them during Earth reentry right as they come home. On a free return, that's likely a 15-gee ride.
These experimental stations are not settlements, though. It'll take at least one well-conceived experimental station to test out practical ways to live off the land on Mars, before any permanent settlements should even be considered. Ideally, we should do several of these, but money (and worse distractions) may restrict us to only one. It had better be a good (and effective) one.
My guess is that a commercial visionary, or perhaps a consortium of them, will beat NASA to Mars to accomplish this. I hope they have the vision to set up that experimental station properly when they go. That could possibly happen before 2030 if the motivations crystallize, but a bit later is more likely.
Assuming we really do the learn how to live off the land, and (critically) where best to attempt this, from that first trip, then a settlement becomes feasible. I submit that we need to pull out a disused, never-developed technology to accomplish that: nuclear pulse propulsion. It works best in gigantic ships, and that is exactly what you need to plant colonies.
We have to build and launch them from home (very carefully), but I'd bet we end up basing them from cislunar space to avoid the EMP effects upon home of operating that drive. EMP is actually a worse side effect than the fallout.
To base that way, we will have to really and truly solve the cheap LEO access and cheap lunar transport problems. So my guess is that this won't happen until rather late in the century. Massive investments in space seem very unlikely in a world convulsed in terrorist wars. That prospect will dog us for a long time, it has already dragged on for decades, intensifying the whole time.
GW
Nuclear pulse is most impressive as an Earth launch concept. Nothing else is quite so successful at combining high specific impulse and high thrust. The product of those two things is power and there is nothing more powerful than a nuclear bomb, at least nothing man made.
For low cost space launch without nuclear energy, one must devise a concept that exploits technological simplicity, reusability and huge economy of scale. That means Sea Dragon. The original Sea Dragon concept assumed a launch rate of 24 per year. That works out at 12,000 tonnes payload each year. At $100 per kg that works out at $1.2billion per year.
I can't help but wonder if the whole reusable spaceplane approach is an expensive red herring. It leads naturally to small and relatively complex vehicles that rely upon high turnaround rates and precision aerospace engineering. Why would we naturally assume that launch vehicles have anything in common with aeroplanes? Perhaps our whole approach to date has been flawed and we should rely more on naval construction techniques for rocket design. Simple, rugged pressure-fed engines working at minimum chamber pressures with barely a hundred parts. All components made from steel.
What surprises me is just how little attention this concept was given beyond its initial concept design. Has Elon Musk even heard of Sea Dragon? Why did he not design his rockets in this way? Why is NASA not pursuing the idea of big dumb boosters with enthusiasm?
Last edited by Antius (2015-12-10 18:16:49)
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Thank you GW and Tom.....
RobertDyck I am still Laughing but I actually have wild turkeys that were being reintroduced in the area. Last year there were about 50 or so that would feed through the yard but that was before the harsh winter desease that came and I have only seen about a dozen this year.
Tom may have been thinking of a skit from a sit-com called "WKRP in Cincinnati". YouTube: "As God as my witness, I thought turkeys could fly"
The only reason a turkey wouldn't be able to fly is if their flight feathers were clipped. But this is a skit form a silly TV show, not real.
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Turkey drop from a helicopter iirc
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Yup. The YouTube link has the entire clip. Come to think of it, flying would be difficult in the downwash of helicopter blades.
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Wild turkeys can fly, I've seen them do it. They prefer stay on the ground and running, but they can fly away from danger.
Domestic turkeys were bred for centuries to modify their genes for extra weight and meat, but no smarts. That's why they're both dumb and flightless. But they're big.
That selective breeding to create the domestic turkey (and the chicken, cow, pig, sheep, goats, etc, ad nauseum) is as much a way to create a GMO as any modern direct biochemical manipulation of DNA, it's just an older and slower way to modify genes. Once you realize that all our selective breeding since farming began around 10 millennia ago actually creates GMO's, then the concept of "frankenfood" as something to fear is revealed as nonsense. But that's getting off subject.
There's hybrids out there between wild turkeys and domestic turkeys. They look like wild turkeys except for the brightly colored heads. They're useless for meat production, but not very smart, either. Neither the farmers nor the game wardens like them. That's the unintended side effect of creating the domestic turkey. Genes will flow.
GW
ps - I do agree that helo downwash would make it more difficult for any large bird to fly, at least for a hundred feet or so below the helo.
GW Johnson
McGregor, Texas
"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew, especially one dead from a bad management decision"
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It would be hard to get a helicopter to fly on Mars. The Martian atmosphere is above the operational ceiling of most terrestrial helicopters.
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