Ukraine & Crimea

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-04-21 20:07:40

There I did it! See above. As you can see there are two choices, we could draw the border between Ukraine Russia by county lines, or we can use the river as a border, but that would split counties in two. I think we can let Russia have those 8 counties that line the border with Russia. Russia is already a large country, and the way it behaved toward Ukraine was just rude, so I'd go with the county lines as that gives the Russians less land, it more than they deserve, but it also gets rid of those ethnic Russian voters who would then be part of Russia, the Russians that remain in Ukraine would have less influence on he next election as their would be fewer of them after subtracting those counties and giving them to Russia.

Last edited by Tom Kalbfus (2014-04-21 20:12:55)

RobertDyck · 2014-04-24 06:34:33

Ukraine crisis: city hall in southeast cleared of pro-Russia protesters

Police have cleared the city hall in a southeastern Ukrainian city of the pro-Russia protesters who had been occupying it for over a week, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said Thursday as government forces appeared to be resuming operations in the east. Local police officials and protesters, however, presented quite another picture of what happened in the city of Mariupol.
...
Avakov wrote in a Facebook post on Thursday that the Mariupol city hall "has been freed to resume work," but did not describe the action.
However, Yulia Lasazan, a spokeswoman for Mariupol's police department, told The Associated Press that about 30 masked men armed with baseball bats stormed the building in the early hours on Thursday and started beating the protesters. It was not clear why the protesters, some of whom were believed to be armed, did not offer resistance but called the police instead.
Five people were taken to a hospital, Lasazan said.
Lasazan said the police were controlling the perimeter and were negotiating with the remaining protesters to leave the building.

Ukraine crisis: Putin threatens Kyiv after military operation kills 2

Russian President Vladimir Putin decried what he described as a "punitive operation."
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Putin threatened Kyiv with unspecified consequences. "If the Kyiv government is using the army against its own people this is clearly a grave crime," Putin said.
...
The Ukrainian government and many in the West worry that Russia is seeking a pretext for a military intervention in eastern Ukraine. Putin insists he has the right to intervene to protect ethnic Russians, who make up a sizable minority in Ukraine's east. Russia has tens of thousands of troops arrayed along its side of Ukraine's eastern border.

RobertDyck · 2014-04-24 11:19:31

RT.COM is a Russian news website, but English language. A couple of today's headlines:
"Russia 'forced' to launch military drills near border in response to Ukraine op - Moscow"
"US troops arrive in Poland for drills amid rising tensions over Ukraine"

JoshNH4H · 2014-04-24 11:57:32

It does seem to me as if Putin is getting ready to avec eaten Ukraine. I've also heard that there are stirrings of Russian ambitions in the Transnistria region of Moldova.

GW Johnson · 2014-04-24 16:10:17

I think I already described Putin as wanting to rebuild the old Soviet Union/superpower, somewhere above. He is able to do this only because he has lots of supporters in this at home in Russia. The closest analog is Hitler's Germany in the late 1930's. Hitler had popular support, then, too. The parallel is eerie and disquieting.

I doubt NATO will stop this in the Ukraine or Moldavia, they're not of strategic interest. Without being stopped, Putin will only continue pushing. So, for now I predict it's appease-the-dictator and lose countries to him, until he grabs something you cannot tolerate losing.

Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia are all part of NATO now. Estonia is where a major Soviet naval base was, and all that facility is still there. That'll likely be where the shooting war starts. Or maybe Poland. But, it's coming, sure as death and taxes. We've seen this movie before, many times.

GW

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-04-24 17:07:35

How much of Ukraine will we let him take? Part of it used to belong to Poland, so will the Polish leader have to explain why he allowed Polish territory to fall into Russia's hands twice?

RobertDyck · 2014-04-24 18:05:01

Are you on that again? After reunification of Germany, Poland worried that Germany would want territory that was theirs before WW2. But Germany said they're too busy assimilating East Germany, they don't want it. But Poland panicked anyway. It took a motion passed by the German parliament to calm them down. Don't stir up trouble. Borders of Europe are what they are. The only one who wants change is Putin.

JoshNH4H · 2014-04-24 21:01:04

One thing that the European Union has done that really is quite good is to make borders more or less obsolete within its borders. The border between France and Germany still means more than the border between New York and Pennsylvania, but it means less than the border between New York (Which is to say, the US generally) and Canada. Admittedly, I've never crossed any of those borders (I've gone from New York to Pennsylvania by way of New Jersey, does that count? ), but I'm getting a bit away from my point anyway.

Where I'm really going with this is that in an increasingly interconnected and global world, borders are starting to mean less. This is especially true in the West. I think this is a good thing.

Edit: To be clear, I'm not sure what direct relation, if any, this has to Crimea or Russia.

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-04-25 05:33:05

RobertDyck wrote:

Are you on that again? After reunification of Germany, Poland worried that Germany would want territory that was theirs before WW2. But Germany said they're too busy assimilating East Germany, they don't want it. But Poland panicked anyway. It took a motion passed by the German parliament to calm them down. Don't stir up trouble. Borders of Europe are what they are. The only one who wants change is Putin.

What I'm saying is if Ukraine falls because of Putin, that Poland should assert its past territorial claims, but not until that happens. So long as there is an independent Ukraine, then Poland doesn't assert that claim, but if Russia invades Ukraine and moves into the West, there is no reason why Russia should get all of it. Whatever Poland takes doesn't end up in Russian hands, and their is historical justification to Poland taking back its land if Ukraine ceases to exist! Poland is under no obligation to give up that land once more to Russia, it was to the Soviet Union that Poland was previously forced to give up land to, not Russia! As for Germany, they started World War II, Poland did not, it was merely its first victim. I don't think Stalin had legitimate authority to change these borders in the first place, and should Poland cease to exist, then yes, Germany would also be entitled to get its land back, if it was German in the first place.

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-04-25 05:36:55

JoshNH4H wrote:

One thing that the European Union has done that really is quite good is to make borders more or less obsolete within its borders. The border between France and Germany still means more than the border between New York and Pennsylvania, but it means less than the border between New York (Which is to say, the US generally) and Canada. Admittedly, I've never crossed any of those borders (I've gone from New York to Pennsylvania by way of New Jersey, does that count? ), but I'm getting a bit away from my point anyway.
Where I'm really going with this is that in an increasingly interconnected and global world, borders are starting to mean less. This is especially true in the West. I think this is a good thing.
Edit: To be clear, I'm not sure what direct relation, if any, this has to Crimea or Russia.

Which is why Ukraine wanted to join it. the EU is a richer economic block than the one Russia wanted to force it into. The EU is richer than Russia because it has freedom and Russia does not. Having everything controlled from the top makes everyone poorer, why would Ukraine want to join that Union? As for those Eastern Ethnic Russian Ukrainians, they want to be a part of Russia more than they want freedom or civil rights or prosperity, perhaps they are getting what the deserve.

RobertDyck · 2014-04-25 05:52:45

So some thug attacks your car while you're blocked in traffic, smashed the window, beats you up, takes your car and drives off with it, then that justifies some completely different thug to break into your house while you're at work, steal your furniture, take everything you got? Perhaps you would consider it good for someone to embezzle directly from your bank account, just clean out all money in your account? That is what you're saying. Because one foreign country used military force to steal land from Ukraine, another country should use military force to steal from Ukraine on the other side. Treat Ukraine as a Thanks Giving turkey, carve it up and eat it for dinner. Perhaps at this year's Mars Society I should bring a baseball bat to attack you, take your luggage. Would you like that? I'm rather sensitive about thieves, my house was broken into 4 times in 1992/93. My vehicle was vandalized recently. I have no tolerance for thieves. So if you continue to advocate Poland rob land from Ukraine, then you are arguing for me to mug you.

I'm glad to see the US government is not so stupid to adopt your argument. If anyone in the US government even hinted at that, then Ukraine would treat the US as a treat. Remember there are US troops right now in Poland. That would create justification for Ukraine to ask Russia for protection. And that would result in Russia swallowing Ukraine.

Glandu · 2014-04-25 06:22:48

Russian attack on Poland would make no sense at all. There is no Casus Belli, no russians there, and the counter-attack opportunities would make it easy for NATO to exterminate the attackers. Remember that Belarus is, more or less, a buffer state. With a much better army than Ukraine.

No, if Ukraine falls, the only possible next targets are Moldavia & Baltic states. Lots of russians there, defendable front.

I've read we are sending a few fighters in the Baltic, but sending a few Leclerc would also be a message. After all, those babies have been specifically designed for fighting Russia in the Eastern European plains... A direct, ground threat, 150 km from Saint-Petersburg(home town of the Putin Clan, very important town), would force Russians to spread their forces, and they don't have the supplies for that.

Of course, the risk is an unwanted escalation(as USA-Japan in the late 30s, each intimidation move designed to slow down the other part made it react more agressively). Question is, is Putin a Tojo(who reacts badly when feels threatened) or a Hitler(with plans for conquest of whole Europe as soon as 1936)? Dynamic of the events makes me think he's more a Tojo. He just wanted some financial control over Ukraine, and began crazy things only when the jackasses in Maidan kicked him out. Multiplying NATO forces in the baltic could remind him he's outnumbered, but could also trigger a preemptive strike from him, out of paranoia. I'm not sure.

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-04-25 11:27:16

RobertDyck wrote:

So some thug attacks your car while you're blocked in traffic, smashed the window, beats you up, takes your car and drives off with it, then that justifies some completely different thug to break into your house while you're at work, steal your furniture, take everything you got? Perhaps you would consider it good for someone to embezzle directly from your bank account, just clean out all money in your account? That is what you're saying. Because one foreign country used military force to steal land from Ukraine, another country should use military force to steal from Ukraine on the other side. Treat Ukraine as a Thanks Giving turkey, carve it up and eat it for dinner. Perhaps at this year's Mars Society I should bring a baseball bat to attack you, take your luggage. Would you like that? I'm rather sensitive about thieves, my house was broken into 4 times in 1992/93. My vehicle was vandalized recently. I have no tolerance for thieves. So if you continue to advocate Poland rob land from Ukraine, then you are arguing for me to mug you.
I'm glad to see the US government is not so stupid to adopt your argument. If anyone in the US government even hinted at that, then Ukraine would treat the US as a treat. Remember there are US troops right now in Poland. That would create justification for Ukraine to ask Russia for protection. And that would result in Russia swallowing Ukraine.

Why would Ukraine ask its enemy for protection? It isn't stealing. Lets just say Poland sends some troops into Poland to help its neighbor, Russia beats its neighbor, so Poland just leaves its troops where they are and claims they are Polish lands, what is Russia going to do about it? Poland can' return the land to Ukraine since Russia has denied Ukraine's existence, in the absence of a Ukraine or Soviet Union, I guess Poland gets to keep that land, why should it go to Russia? The Ukrainian refugees might prefer it to remain in Polish lands, that way Putin won't ship them off to Siberian labor camps.

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-04-25 11:31:20

Glandu wrote:

Russian attack on Poland would make no sense at all. There is no Casus Belli, no russians there, and the counter-attack opportunities would make it easy for NATO to exterminate the attackers. Remember that Belarus is, more or less, a buffer state. With a much better army than Ukraine.
No, if Ukraine falls, the only possible next targets are Moldavia & Baltic states. Lots of russians there, defendable front.
I've read we are sending a few fighters in the Baltic, but sending a few Leclerc would also be a message. After all, those babies have been specifically designed for fighting Russia in the Eastern European plains... A direct, ground threat, 150 km from Saint-Petersburg(home town of the Putin Clan, very important town), would force Russians to spread their forces, and they don't have the supplies for that.
Of course, the risk is an unwanted escalation(as USA-Japan in the late 30s, each intimidation move designed to slow down the other part made it react more agressively). Question is, is Putin a Tojo(who reacts badly when feels threatened) or a Hitler(with plans for conquest of whole Europe as soon as 1936)? Dynamic of the events makes me think he's more a Tojo. He just wanted some financial control over Ukraine, and began crazy things only when the jackasses in Maidan kicked him out. Multiplying NATO forces in the baltic could remind him he's outnumbered, but could also trigger a preemptive strike from him, out of paranoia. I'm not sure.

What happens after that preemptive strike? How does Putin achieve victory, or does he just die with the rest of his country? It would be hard to preemptively strike all of the US nuclear ballistic missile submarines, some of those nukes are going to get through. Moscow would be history and if any Russians survive, Putin is likely not to be in charge of them. Does Putin want to die taking his country with him? Any move that has no obvious path to victory is questionable.

RobertDyck · 2014-04-26 13:15:43

RT.COM
US soldiers arrive in Lithuania to ‘reassure’ NATO allies amid Ukrainian crisis

JoshNH4H · 2014-04-26 14:23:08

Robertdyck, the article you posted seems to suggest skepticism regarding the true purpose of the American trips deployed to eastern Europe. Is this your view?

RobertDyck · 2014-04-26 15:48:22

Nope. Not my view. Just posting an update. It's good that the US is giving reassurance to NATO allies. Realize RT.COM is a Russian news website. It may be in English language, but distinctly biased toward the current Russian view. I just think it's good to hear the other side.

RobertDyck · 2014-04-26 16:21:49

quoting from that same article...

The Lithuanian government welcomed the arrival of 150 troops at the Lithuanian Air Force Aviation Base in Siauliai on Saturday, reported Reuters. Referring to the escalating tensions in Ukraine, President Dalia Grybauskaite said “we know in this situation who our real friends are coming to help."
"If any of our guests are injured, it would mean an open confrontation not with Lithuania but with the United States," she added. The group of troops is part of a larger contingent of 600 troops that have been deployed throughout Eastern Europe to reassure NATO allies. Another company of soldiers arrived in Poland on Wednesday and in Latvia on Friday. Troops are also expected to arrive in Estonia on Monday.

So the US will send a total of 600 troops. Compared to the total strength of the US army, that's small. On April 17, Canada announced it is sending 6 CF-18 Hornet fighter jets to Eastern Europe to support our NATO allies. Along with air crew and support personnel for the fighters. This was in direct response to a formal request from NATO. Again, 6 jets is not a lot.

Again quoting from the RT article...

The US Department of Defense announced the drills on Tuesday, saying they sent a clear message to Moscow.
"If there's a message to Moscow, it is the same exact message that we take our obligations very, very seriously on the continent of Europe," Kirby told reporters.

Russia has been holding drills close to the Ukraine border. The Ukrainian president has issued a formal demand to Russia that they explain that. I haven't read a response. So this sounds like Russia is trying to imply US troops are there to intimidate pro-Russian activists in Ukraine. Well, if anyone who stormed a Ukrainian city hall or Oblast administration building and occupied it, now feels US troops will counter any Russian troops? Good! Perhaps they'll think twice when Ukrainian police show up to kick them out.

Still, sounds damn scary: US troops and Russian troops, holding exercises on either border over the same piece of land.

Perhaps I should clarify. At this point I don't think the US has any intention to invade Ukraine. The statement about "obligations" implies it will. The Ukrainian government obviously expects the treaty it signed with the US before allowing their nuclear missiles to be destroyed would mean the US would take direct action. From their view, now is time for that action. But Kerry has said the US would only provide non-lethal aid. Canadian Prime Minister Harper has said our contribution is strictly for NATO allies. So why is Russia trying to make this more? Do they intend to take all former Soviet states? Do they intend to expand their conquest like Hitler?

It's all very scary. And so much for using Energia for Mars. Damn!

Last edited by RobertDyck (2014-04-27 00:05:20)

RobertDyck · 2014-04-26 18:42:26

National Post, April 17

The Canadian fighter jets will join warplanes from the United States, Britain, Denmark, Poland, Portugal and Germany, which will be deploying in waves between now and the fall.
Canada is also slated to take part in July in a long-planned, U.S.-led military exercise in Ukraine, known as Rapid Trident 2014, but the government has not been forthcoming about the size and scope of the country’s involvement.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday rejected claims that Russian special forces are fomenting unrest in eastern Ukraine, but recognized for the first time that the troops in unmarked uniforms who had overtaken Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula before its annexation by Moscow were Russian soldiers.

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-04-26 23:42:54

RobertDyck wrote:

Nope. Not my view. Just posting an update. It's good that the US is giving reassurance to NATO allies. Realize RT.COM is a Russian news website. It may be in English language, but distinctly biased toward the current Russian view. I just think it's good to hear the other side.

Its basically Putin's point of view, those news agencies are not doing news, they are just spouting the propaganda Putin tells them to, and it gets really ugly with the Russians calling the Ukrainians Nazis so they can give themselves permission to invade their country, very much as the Serbs portrayed their enemies as Nazis when they went about invading and killing. I don't if Putin's point of view is necessarily Russia's point of view, but all were getting from the Russian press is Putin's point of view as he doesn't allow any publication in Russia that doesn't put out his point of view to exist, this is much the way Nazi Germany's press went as Germany invaded Poland, they would write stories about how Germany invaded Poland to defend itself from a Polish attack on a German radio station, which was basically Staged by Gerbels. The Russians should keep in mind that their is reality and their is fiction, and their writing fiction doesn't change the reality of the situation one bit, any more than Communist Propaganda would ever make Communism work.

The Russians are hiding behind their propaganda once again, a really nasty habit of theirs, which only goes to show how weak they are if they must lie!

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-04-26 23:56:36

RobertDyck wrote:

quoting from that same article...
The Lithuanian government welcomed the arrival of 150 troops at the Lithuanian Air Force Aviation Base in Siauliai on Saturday, reported Reuters. Referring to the escalating tensions in Ukraine, President Dalia Grybauskaite said “we know in this situation who our real friends are coming to help."
"If any of our guests are injured, it would mean an open confrontation not with Lithuania but with the United States," she added. The group of troops is part of a larger contingent of 600 troops that have been deployed throughout Eastern Europe to reassure NATO allies. Another company of soldiers arrived in Poland on Wednesday and in Latvia on Friday. Troops are also expected to arrive in Estonia on Monday.
So the US will send a total of 600 troops. Compared to the total strength of the US army, that's small. On April 17, Canada announced it is sending 6 CF-18 Hornet fighter jets to Eastern Europe to support our NATO allies. Along with air crew and support personnel for the fighters. This was in direct response to a formal request from NATO. Again, 6 jets is not a lot.

Shows you how much Obama cares about a bunch of white people killing each other in Europe, those 600 troops aren't even being sent to the Ukraine, which by the way is getting food aid from the United States that it doesn't need! Ukraine exports food! You know Europe really has got to care about its own existence more than Obama does, because Obama doesn't care one bit. 600 troops aren't going to make a difference and if Obama sends them into battle, they will get killed! 600 people is about the size of my graduating class in high school, and I haven't heard any mention of them having superpowers or anything like that. My real question is where are the Germans? Do they want to be the country on the border with Russia if the countries to the east of it fall to Russian conquest. Why is everyone waiting for Obama to do something decisive, when we all know he doesn't have it in him! Obama leads from behind, he is not the leader of the free world because he is not a leader, I believe that mantle falls to Germany at this moment, so the Germans have their opportunity to be leader of the Free World, so how is Angela Merkle doing? Is she the "iron Lady" of Germany?

RobertDyck wrote:

Again quoting from the RT article...
The US Department of Defense announced the drills on Tuesday, saying they sent a clear message to Moscow.
"If there's a message to Moscow, it is the same exact message that we take our obligations very, very seriously on the continent of Europe," Kirby told reporters.
Russia has been holding drills close to the Ukraine border. The Ukrainian president has issued a formal demand to Russia that they explain that. I haven't read a response. So this sounds like Russia is trying to imply US troops are there to intimidate pro-Russian activists in Ukraine. Well, if anyone who stormed a Ukrainian city hall or Oblast administration building and occupied it, now feels US troops will counter any Russian troops? Good! Perhaps they'll think twice when Ukrainian police show up to kick them out.
Still, sounds damn scarry: US troops and Russian troops, holding excercises on either border over the same piece of land.
Perhaps I sould clairify. At this point I don't think the US has any intention to invade Ukraine. The statement about "obligations" implies it will. The Ukrainian government obviously expects the treaty it signed with the US before allowing their nuclear missiles to be destroyed would mean the US would take direct action. From their view, now is time for that action. But Kerry has said the US would only provide non-lethal aid. Canadian Prime Minister Harper has said our contribution is strictly for NATO allies. So why is Russia trying to make this more? Do they intend to take all former Soviet states? Do they intend to expand their conquest like Hitler?
It's all very scarry. And so much for using Energia for Mars. Damn!

The Third Reich could have been landing men on the Moon and Mars had they won World War II, and Werner Von Braun would probably have been in charge of it, no doubt they would use slave labor to get those giant rockets ready

JoshNH4H · 2014-04-27 08:58:15

Robertdyck, you make a fair point about hearing the opinion of the other side.

I think it's interesting that both the US and Russia are claiming that their counterparts are running the show in Ukraine. Speaking as an American, the claim that the US government caused the Ukrainian revolution, or is controlling their government seems silly. Quite simply, I don't think America cares about Ukraine or Eastern Europe very much. That's why we sent a relatively small number of troops* to Eastern Europe.

It seems somewhat more credible to me that Russia has interests in Ukraine. The two countries do border each other, after all, and have extensively intertwined histories and economies. Nevertheless, I am somewhat skeptical of US claims that protests in the East are caused by Russian special agents. It just seems a bit silly.

*Tom, of course, felt the need to racialize this. Of course, I should by now know better than to expect his politics to make sense.

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-04-27 09:12:37

It has been wars in Europe that have kept the population of Europe down, instead of Europe standing together, we have spoilers like Russia and Germany in the first two World Wars which cause Europeans to kill each other, meanwhile the population of Asia is looking on as we depopulate Europe with our fratricidal conflicts all based on some dictator wanting more power. When will Europeans stand up for their civilization? Why is everyone there except for the Russians waiting for the United States to do something? Or would be nice if Russia was just like the other European states in the region instead of being the sole aggressor. I wish Europe would have a defense program that wasn't the United States of America, and while they spend lavishly on their social programs, they offer Putin a helping of Europe so long as they are at least two countries away from whatever the Russians are doing! Poland is concerned, the Czech Republic is concerned, the Germans and the French have decided to wait till the Russians come to their borders before worrying about them. You know any Germans? Do you think they would prefer to fight the Russians in their own country in their own towns and villages or do you think they would prefer to fight them in Poland and Ukraine when it is not their own citizens who's towns and villages are occupied by the Russians?

JoshNH4H · 2014-04-27 12:41:50

Interestingly enough, we've had a Frenchman in this very thread. You're missing the point, which is that Russia knows better than to launch a full scale war against Europe.

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-04-27 18:51:08

Its simple, the way to stop Putin is to give him only two choices, either blow up the World, or leave us alone! Putin doesn't get a third choice of conquering the world without resistance, and its troublesome to me when western Europeans indicate that it would be alright with them if Putin were to just take a piece of Europe to expand his empire. Ukraine is a country, and if we don't protect it as part of our end of the agreement to get Ukraine to give up its nukes, then we are actually encouraging other countries to get their own nukes, if they realize collective defense isn't working. Why shouldn't Poland build nuclear missiles if they can't count on Spaniards to come to their defense if they get invaded by Russia? We should be moving troops into western Ukraine and were not! Also the Germans, the British and the French shouldn't be waiting on Obama to do something, he won't, they should be moving troops into Ukraine on their own. This is a test of NATOs ability to function without US leadership, and US leadership will not be forthcoming until we get another President, as the current one is known for "leading from behind"!

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Re: Ukraine & Crimea

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