A New Wave of Settlers?

Rxke · 2013-09-10 13:06:46

I read tons of scenario's how to get to Mars,

I dreamed for years to go myself, one way or another,

I got old all of a sudden and realised it won't happen in my lifetime. So I buried the dream and got on with my life.

... And two days ago I had a chat with someone from another continent, and then with another young man from yet another continent. They were adamant they will get there one day.

... And I realised there are now young people among us who want to go and -for the first time in history- have a reason to believe it will actually be possible. (Musk's plans)

They were both people like you and me, saving all but every penny to get a ticket, studying hard to have a relevant experience/diploma.

It blew my mind.

So I started reading the comment section of articles on Mars plans (not on places like space.com etc, that's too positively biased)

And sure, a lot of people laugh it away, say we have to solve problems on Earth first yadda yadda yadda.

But there seems to be quite a bit of buzz from people saying it inspires them, people thinking it's cool etc

It helps a lot that Musk is being portrayed as the super cool glamour superhero....

Of course, it's not a given Musk will succeed, but I'm sensing there is now a real change in how people think about going to Mars, it's not 100% crazy anymore, only, say 70%.

Or am I seeing things?

I mean, I never ever heard a hemi-demi-semi believable plan to go to Mars from any of the big Spaceorgs when I was young, Musk's plans are barely more tangible, but there is a sense he really really is going to do it or die trying (and since he's somewhat of a superhero, he won't die )

JoshNH4H · 2013-09-10 13:38:56

I've been working on a project lately that would lay out the infrastructure needed to "prime the pump" so to speak, to make space development possible, and then show that reasonable enterprises conducted based on that infrastructure will make it profitable. My plan is either to publish in a book, or do it and become a multibillionaire, if not trillionaire. The timing is right.

Interestingly, Musk has gotten us to NASA's arbitrary line of $1000/lb ($2200/kg) below which space colonization becomes feasible, with his falcon heavy.

I think I take a similar tack as many others who want to see space exploration happen, at this point.

SpaceNut · 2013-09-10 20:11:37

Musk makes rockets and that makes his plan feel possible....

Rxke · 2013-09-11 00:09:56

SpaceNut wrote:

Musk makes rockets and that makes his plan feel possible....

He makes them with a goal... Mars. Maybe that's the part that inspires people.

He's not a super talented speaker (He's a clear speaker, don't get me wrong, he's just not a "I-can-easily-whip-any-group-of-audience-into-a-cheering-crowd-speaker"), otherwise I'm sure he'd already have come with a speech akin to 'we chose to go to the Moon, not because it is easy'

louis · 2013-09-11 16:49:49

Rxke wrote:

I read tons of scenario's how to get to Mars,
I dreamed for years to go myself, one way or another,
I got old all of a sudden and realised it won't happen in my lifetime. So I buried the dream and got on with my life.
... And two days ago I had a chat with someone from another continent, and then with another young man from yet another continent. They were adamant they will get there one day.

... And I realised there are now young people among us who want to go and -for the first time in history- have a reason to believe it will actually be possible. (Musk's plans)
They were both people like you and me, saving all but every penny to get a ticket, studying hard to have a relevant experience/diploma.
It blew my mind.
So I started reading the comment section of articles on Mars plans (not on places like space.com etc, that's too positively biased)
And sure, a lot of people laugh it away, say we have to solve problems on Earth first yadda yadda yadda.
But there seems to be quite a bit of buzz from people saying it inspires them, people thinking it's cool etc
It helps a lot that Musk is being portrayed as the super cool glamour superhero....
Of course, it's not a given Musk will succeed, but I'm sensing there is now a real change in how people think about going to Mars, it's not 100% crazy anymore, only, say 70%.

Or am I seeing things?
I mean, I never ever heard a hemi-demi-semi believable plan to go to Mars from any of the big Spaceorgs when I was young, Musk's plans are barely more tangible, but there is a sense he really really is going to do it or die trying (and since he's somewhat of a superhero, he won't die )

louis · 2013-09-11 16:53:10

Yes, Musk has made a real difference. I have backed Space X from teh early days and am glad they have come through.

Musk is dedicated to reaching Mars. He realises the historic significance of this venture.

What a wonderful day it will be when human beings walk on a new planet. It will change perceptions across the whole of the home planet.

GW Johnson · 2013-09-12 09:10:58

Hi Louis:

Like you, I really applaud what Musk and some of the others are doing. They have accomplished more toward men-outside-LEO in the last decade than has NASA (or ESA or JAXA or any other government agency) in the last 4 decades. And that's a fact, Jack!

Once Falcon-Heavy is flying, it becomes easy to ship 1-3 ton cargo to Mars, one-way. That's entry aerobraking and direct rocket-braking with the big thrusters on their Dragon. No chutes, as I understand it. Simple enough.

Sending men two-way is very much harder without some futuristic propulsion we don't have yet. Can't beat the laws of physics, and we only have the technologies that we have. To send men two-way and get them back alive will simply be expensive. Inherently.

We're going to need to land cargo in bigger packages than 1-3 tons if they are to stay a while on Mars, and especially if some of them are to stay permanently. That can be done, but we need to build some new "tinkertoys" with the technologies we have: a reusable "landing boat" or "ferry" between LMO and the surface. It can be done, but doesn't fit the payload dimensions on the rockets we have. So, assemble in LEO. Costs more, but it works (ISS is the proof).

And as for the manned transit, they will need artificial gravity and solar flare radiation shielding. We can already do those things with the technologies we have. In point of fact, we have known how to do all of these things since approximately 1995. It's just expensive. For the last 2 decades, we have not done the manned Mars mission just because of the high cost, and all the idiot politics that goes with money like that.

Before Apollo was cancelled in mid-stream, NASA was planning to go to Mars with men in 1983. Based on what we know now about radiation and microgravity disease, they would not have survived the trip.

But we have known roughly how much radiation to protect against since about 1990, and have had enough understanding of microgravity disease to know we need a 1 gee spin, since about 1995.

The slender baton shape is inherently stable in spin. You build your transit vehicle of docked modules, in that shape, with the habitat at one end. Even an untrained person can withstand spin at 4 rpm. At 4 rpm, you need a 56 m radius for 1 full gee. As you stage off propellant tank modules, the same-length baton just gets more slender. Voila: 1 gee both ways.

Wrap your water and wastewater tanks around the flight control deck as the solar flare shelter. 20 cm of water, clean or dirty, works well enough. A 3 year journey during the peak in the cosmic ray cycle is about the career limit for cosmic ray exposure, but it's do-able, and we have no technology to shield against it anyway.

QED -- we could have gone to Mars ever since about 1995 and returned safely.

It's been all about just arguing over costs and politics, since then. Kinda like Ferdinand and Isabella arguing over selling the jewels to send Columbus. Just less responsive because huge numbers of politicians and bureaucrats are involved.

It's THAT problem that folks like Musk might be able to overcome. THAT is the fundamental limitation. Not the technical know-how

GW

Number04 · 2013-11-06 12:26:25

SpaceX has describe it's self as the shipping company to get people there. Other projects like MarsOne is a colony project. It seems in the last 5 years there was a tipping point from dreaming to doing. We all know the plans are out there, what's left to do is to chose one and test it.

Myself, I've been an observer as well, and considered Mars a pipe dream. It looks like it will happen. With the enthusiastic youth (14-24) growing up listening to men like Musk proclaim he will do it, they have no reason to believe it's not true. Now is the time to solidify our options, move them from paper to prototype. There are plenty of people who believe it will happen and are willing to work to that goal.

JoshNH4H · 2013-11-07 13:44:06

Welcome back Number04! I think we're on the verge of some very exciting developments.

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#1 2013-09-10 13:06:46

A New Wave of Settlers?

#2 2013-09-10 13:38:56

Re: A New Wave of Settlers?

#3 2013-09-10 20:11:37

Re: A New Wave of Settlers?

#4 2013-09-11 00:09:56

Re: A New Wave of Settlers?

#5 2013-09-11 16:49:49

Re: A New Wave of Settlers?

#6 2013-09-11 16:53:10

Re: A New Wave of Settlers?

#7 2013-09-12 09:10:58

Re: A New Wave of Settlers?

#8 2013-11-06 12:26:25

Re: A New Wave of Settlers?

#9 2013-11-07 13:44:06

Re: A New Wave of Settlers?

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