Vincent Weather, US

Vincent · 2012-10-06 10:46:30

Lake effect plum developing over Lake Erie. 850 mb temps 0 to -3C as CAA moves SE.

Gails, they are a blowing. Only a weatherman could love this. They are a tad early.

Vincent

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-06 17:01:51)

Vincent · 2012-10-06 11:08:22

Winds 15-20mph in Fredrick MD. Expect frontal passage 18Z/2PM EDT in Baltimore/ Washington.

Visible loop of CAA into the region..

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d … duration=5

Fall weather moves SE.

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-06 17:02:24)

Vincent · 2012-10-06 15:24:09

Blue Norther in Texas.

g14_2012280_2045_ABI_vis by dfrank39, on Flickr

Vincent · 2012-10-06 17:37:36

Blue Norther for Maryland. Baltimore will have temperatures falling into the mid 50's by am Sunday. Rain arrives with temperatures falling to the mid 40's Sunday afternoon. This aint rocks. That is to say, atmospheric sciences, aint geology.

Vincent

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-06 18:18:51)

GW Johnson · 2012-10-07 11:04:56

Yep, we got a norther. It didn't look like the stereotypical blue norther here, because the approach speed was so slow, but we sure did cool off nicely. It was almost 90 F here during the afternoon before the front hit. That front came through sometime after midnight. It was nice and cool Sat, even a bit cooler today (Sun). They say we're headed back to near-90 F by week's end. Typical Texas.

GW

Vincent · 2012-10-08 10:11:08

I'm glad to hear you got a cool breeze in Texas, Mr. Johnson, It was a hot summer indeed. Max heating is past now. 90's will make a brief appearance in the extreme Southern sections Wednesday afternoon. More warm air will surge North in advance of cold air mass intrusion to the north late Thursday and Friday. Cooler days are coming brother.

Cold rain in the smoky mountains with temperatures in the upper 30's and low 40's this afternoon. Wet snow may mix in from central Virginia (Hot Springs) Mountains into the high country of Maryland. A period of wet snow is possible above 2000 feet in western Maryland this afternoon.

Finally had to turn the heat on in Baltimore. The autumnal chill is here. Will watch the radar light up in the Smokey's this afternoon. Nothing like a little "Smokey Mountain Rain."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t53WonTz … re=related

GW Johnson · 2012-10-09 19:16:18

Typical Texas. Wore a coat (not a jacket, and actual coat) yesterday. Today, short shirt sleeves. It's been like that all my life.

That conflict between hot and cold air masses is why the US Great Plains has the absolute most violent weather on Earth. Texas is at the south end of that. It's called Tornado Alley.

I'm no meteorologist, but I do understand a few things about the weather here. Unlike the TV weathermen, I actually look out of the window (sound of laughter). They say we might get rain later in the week with another front. The little weak one tonight brought clouds but little else. Still quite warm out there.

I'll believe rain when I see it. Around these parts, a "six inch rain" is raindrop splatters 6 inches apart on your windshield. (More muffled laughter. I'm trying to be funny. Apparently unsuccessfully.)

GW

Vincent · 2012-10-13 05:40:43

The temperature dropped to 0C this morning on the north side of Baltimore. Frost developed in low topo areas and on cars, roof-tops. By definition the next prolonged warm period in the mid-Atlantic will be "Indian Summer." Hints 7-10 days.

Heavy snow above 6000 feet in Colorado as vigorous vort max heads ENE toward the lakes. Warm surge in Texas will set the stage for strong and isolated severe thunderstorms today. Will monitor this afternoon.

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-13 05:41:11)

clark · 2012-10-14 16:33:18

Kyle, I can't keep this up. Mitchell gave me hell last time- I think the lack of sleep is finally getting to me. I know, you were right, but we have to do something soon.

Rain is coming.

Vincent · 2012-10-16 13:10:28

Temps past 18z in the low 60'F 15C on the eastern seaboard. We all need a meteorologist sometime. Hard to find a "rock guy" it would seem.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/dis … duration=0

Vincent

Vincent · 2012-10-18 05:06:14

Polar ice pack and N Hemi snow pack monitoring.

Also, Gickr does not allow for bigger images or a link. A handy tool to magnify web images is available here. It's great for Mars images.
http://magnifier.sourceforge.net/

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-19 08:25:20)

Vincent · 2012-10-19 08:23:13

I was pondering why meteorologist and geologist are different. I think it is "time." Time is a measurement, that can be manipulated by man. Time lapse photography should be implemented by geologist. You may not live to see the final product, but us meteorologist sure can. Invest now, we do.

As you know the sun has set at the north pole. Time lapse data shows the rapid refreeze of the Arctic ocean. This is witness to a subtle difference between the freezing point and thaw point.

This link is a little further south and you can watch as the Arctic night progresses south to the northern most point of the United States, Pt Barrow Alaska. Here you will find not only a live weather cam, but "time lapse" movies of years past, enjoy.

Enjoy the rapid process of atmospheric dynamics.

Vincent

http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam

Vincent · 2012-10-19 10:03:24

Indian summer, on the way to the eastern seaboard. After a warm event ends with temps in the 60's this weekend, long wave trof develops in the Rockies this weekend. High pressure develops on the eastern seaboard and warm air advection begins. Temps in the 70's F or 20-25C during the day with upper 40's 8-12C at night.

A developing storm will usher in cold air 7-10 days out. Significant snow in the high plains and Great Lakes in advance.

Don't want to dismiss the Mars like weather on the high plains this week. Winds 50-60 mph with visibilities 1/2 mile in blowing dust, as storm center moves south of the lakes today.

Vincent

Vincent · 2012-10-22 04:25:00

Polar ice pack and N Hemi snow pack monitoring, last image, 21 Oct 2012

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-22 04:26:16)

Vincent · 2012-10-22 08:07:58

This will be wild week for the lower 48. Modified arctic air moves south and east into Montana by Wednesday on the back-side of a potent winter storm for the high-country from California, Utah , Colorado, north and east . Snow totals will be measured in feet.

Indian summer conditions begin today for the eastern third. Temps will approach the low 80' from Washington DC and points south by Wednesday. Meanwhile conditions become favorable for tropical development as an area of disturbed weather moves north to a position off the east coast of Florida. Hurricane conditions seem likely 75-100 miles off-shore.

To summarize . Modified arctic air moves toward the east coast this weekend. Strong tropical storm or Hurricane moves toward the coast of North Carolina. Long wave trof develops in advance of cold air and could develop cut-off 300mb level reflection over southeastern US.

Could be a hell of a storm along the east coast into New England. "Katie, bar the door."

Vincent

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-22 08:11:45)

Vincent · 2012-10-22 10:37:47

GFS was the outlier, with cyclogenesis well off the coast. It trends as such. CMS and ECMWF need to man-up. Details after 3PM EDT or 20Z.

Vincent

Vincent · 2012-10-22 11:54:58

Surface observations will update. Moderate to heavy snow in the Seiara Nevada, moves NE.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/dis … duration=0

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-22 12:01:58)

Vincent · 2012-10-22 12:01:23

A little Northeast, will up-date during the storm.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/dis … duration=0

Vincent · 2012-10-22 14:16:22

Latest data shows ECMWF into NYC with Storm force winds 0C isotherm well noth and west. CMS shows Hurricane force winds into eastern Maryland with 0C isotherm digging southeast into western NC. Navy NOGAPS takes it into Nantucket with heavy snow developing in the high country of NC, WV. I like that. Seems reasonable. GFS the outlier.

Vincent

Vincent · 2012-10-22 15:00:51

18Z NAM shows sharp trof at 84 hrs. Consistent with NOGAPS.

Vincent

Vincent · 2012-10-22 17:05:25

18Z GFS, still off the chain. Is it right?

Vincent

Vincent · 2012-10-25 04:43:22

Hurricane Sandy Heads into the Bahamas

Hurricane Sandy will lurk off the East Coast of the US next 72 hrs. Modified Arctic air digs southeast along the front range with a period of moderate to heavy snow from Colorado NE into Minnesota, today. This storm will intensify in the Hudson Bay. This will develop a negative tilt and 300 mb level trof into the central East Coast 72-86 hrs. This will guide Sandy on shore somewhere from the DELMARVA to the Gulf of Maine.

Those that live in these areas should prepare now for a major storm with winds up to 75 mph with higher gust, coastal flooding and power outages within 96 hrs.

Vincent

Vincent · 2012-10-25 04:47:10

Hurricane Sandy Heads into the Bahamas

Hurricane Sandy will lurk off the East Coast of the US next 72 hrs. Modified Arctic air digs southeast along the front range with a period of moderate to heavy snow from Colorado NE into Minnesota, today. This storm will intensify in the Hudson Bay. This will develop a negative tilt and 300 mb level trof into the central East Coast 72-86 hrs. This will guide Sandy on shore somewhere from the DELMARVA to the Gulf of Maine.

Those that live in these areas should prepare now for a major storm with winds up to 75 mph with higher gust, coastal flooding and power outages within 96-144 hrs.

Vincent

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-25 05:38:08)

Vincent · 2012-10-25 09:09:34

12Z up-date

Sandy will move NE today with a gradual decrease in forward motion. A drift to the west is expected after 12 hours in response to a building ridge off the East coast of New England.
As dry air is entrained Sandy will lose some of her tropical characteristics and become extra tropical. Back in the day we would call these type storms "Himicanes."
Expect Gail force winds on the coast of North Carolina, with Storm force winds along the outer-banks and off shore in 72 hrs. Seas 20-35 feet and higher.

NWS Bulletin* Immediate Broadcast Requested*

Special Weather Statement

ANZ088-251500-
CAPE FEAR TO 31N OUT TO 32N 73W TO 31N 74W
500 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN

TODAY
E TO NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 7 FT BUILDING TO 6 TO 11 FT LATE. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS S.

TONIGHT
E TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 TO 16 FT LATE. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS SE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING LATE.

FRI
E TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT OVER FAR
SE PORTION TO 35 TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 24 FT...
HIGHEST SE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BECOMING NUMEROUS.

FRI NIGHT
FAR NW PORTION...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40
KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE...E TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 40
TO 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 TO 30 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
SE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SQUALLS THROUGHOUT...OCCASIONALLY
REDUCING VSBY BELOW 1 NM.

SAT
W PORTION...NE TO N WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 24 FT.
E PORTION...E TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 65 KT. SEAS 22 TO
34 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS SE.

SUN
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT OVER W
PORTION BECOMING NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BECOMING 9 TO
18 FT... EXCEPT E OF 1000 FM 18 TO 30 FT LATE...HIGHEST E.

MON
W TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 7 TO 12 FT...EXCEPT E OF 1000 FM 12 TO 17 FT...HIGHEST E.
$$

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-25 09:16:57)

Vincent · 2012-10-25 09:31:43

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 75.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SSW OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

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