Vincent Weather, US

Vincent · 2012-09-17 12:13:06

Thought I would start a thread for US weather discussion. The transition on Earth is rapid. On Mars the seasons are twice as long, and only above 50 degrees north latitude is snow common. This is not to say it does not occur further south. We have just not seen it. Maybe one day we will see a catastrophic subsurface eruption. Would they show us? Our grand children maybe.
So as we wait for NASA to throw us a bone, let us enjoy the change of seasons on Earth.

Discussion:

A rare, early, Gulf of Mexico Storm system will interact with a longwave trof digging south out of central Canada. Subtropical air will surge north and override a modifying continental air-mass. This will result in heavy rain from the lower Mississippi valley northeast into New England. Dry air will mix with the storm system and evaporative cooling will bring temperatures of 10 to 20 degrees below normal in the Ohio valley to points north and east.
The leading edge of the dry cool air is passing southeastward from Iowa and Wisconsin today. Winds of 20-30mph with temperatures in the mid 50's. 850 mb temps are below 0C just north of Duluth Minnesota. Surface temperatures in the low 40's in Sothern Canada will melt snow showers aloft. Rain showers could mix with or change to wet snow on the northeastern shores of Lake Superior Tuesday afternoon.
The first winter storm in Canada takes place in the southern Hudson bay Thursday afternoon, Snow is likely with 30-40mph winds. Gail warnings will be issued. East of the Hudson Bay expect snow and blowing snow. Temperatures of -1 to -3C This will produce a secondary surge of cold, yes I said cold air (mid to upper 30's)in the central Appalachians late Friday night. Expect frost and freeze warnings for the upper mid-west Friday night.
This is significant for two reasons. First, a weak El-Nino is forming. This gives us an active southern jet. Second, record Arctic ice melt will produce a blocking high pressure over Greenland and a suppressed polar vortex over the Hudson Bay.
Get the pop-corn out if you live in the Mid-Atlantic and New England. The gails of November may come early in the Great Lakes.

Vincent

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgI8bta- … re=related

clark · 2012-09-20 06:25:05

Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.

Koeng · 2012-09-20 22:29:23

lol

-Koeng

Vincent · 2012-09-21 13:34:06

Weather is dynamics. It is the realm of phase change and influence. Influence on those that live on the surface. The past systems brought a surge of warm air north into the mid Atlantic. The developed severe thunderstorms and loss of power. If you have ever lost power, then you know it sux.

Developing storm in southern Lake Superior today will usher in the coldest air of the season. Frost is likely Sunday morning and Monday morning over the high country of West Virginia and points north along the spine of the Allegany.
Wet snow still likely on the north shore of Lake Superior late Saturday night and early Sunday.

Vincent

Last edited by Vincent (2012-09-21 13:35:09)

Vincent · 2012-09-21 13:52:27

Latest surface observations from this region. This image is the latest and will up-date over time.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/dis … duration=0

Vincent · 2012-09-24 12:47:05

Mid Atlantic residents will experience the first "nor'easter" of the year next weekend. It will be a rain event, with winds gusting to Gail force as the storm moves into the Gulf of Maine late Monday 9/30 00Z.
7-10 days should produce the first "winter storm " in the Northern Rockies. Snow totals of 1-2 feet in Yellow Stone.

Vincent

Vincent · 2012-09-26 14:00:08

The Nor'easter seems more likely to be a Nova Scrota event. The winter storm in the Rockies seems most likely. Yes I stay 7-10days out. That is where the science is. Everything else is chump stuff.

Vincent

clark · 2012-09-27 19:19:22

The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain.

Vincent · 2012-10-03 05:02:19

The Rocky mountain "winter storm" is underway. Moderate to heavy snow developing in Montana, Utah and Wyoming.

This storm develops as the coldest air of the season heads south and east. Temperatures in Yellow Stone will drop to the single digits by Saturday morning. As the storm moves North East out of NE Colorado tomorrow morning rain ends a s a period of wet snow in the Dakotas and Minnesota. Accumulating snow North and west of storm center as it moves into extreme western Lake Superior late Friday and early Saturday.
Further south a "bluenorther" for the high plains south into Texas as temperatures drop 20-30 degrees F with frontal passage.

Yesterday temperatures reached the low 80'sF in Montana. This morning, snow. You got to love winter weather.
Did Vincent forecast the first winter storm of the season eight days out? You bet ya.....Pass the Meds....

Vincent

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/dis … duration=0

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-03 05:23:36)

Vincent · 2012-10-03 05:10:38

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
418 AM CDT WED OCT 3 2012

...EARLY WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY THURSDAY.
THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO AREAS OF NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022-023-051700-
/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.A.0003.121004T1200Z-121005T1700Z/
ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-
RED LAKE-EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...NEWFOLDEN...
RED LAKE...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON...
BAGLEY...BEMIDJI...MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA
418 AM CDT WED OCT 3 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND BECOME 20 TO
30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY BE NEAR ZERO WITHIN FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 OR MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
TG

Vincent · 2012-10-03 10:39:18

The links below should give up-dates throughout the storm. Current surface vortex has set up about 75 miles further east than proged, currently over extreme south central South Dakota with associated surface trof into NE Colorado . 500 mb vort max swings southeast through central Wyoming this morning will rotate along long-wave trof tonight. Light to moderate snow with 6-12 inches likely above 5000 feet in Wyoming, today and early tonight, then snow showers above 3000 feet. Current conditions in Yellow Stone show winds 30 mph gust to 40 with temperatures falling into the twenties.

Surface vortex and mid level storm should merge over northern Minnesota late Thursday. Temperatures aloft at 850 mbs of -10C should result in a rapid convective banding event over NE North Dakota, NW Minnesota and southern Canada north and west of Lake Superior. Convective bands will result in moderate to heavy snow north and west of the center with 30-40mph winds.

Earth, she knows how to do a storm.....

Links will update. Every hour for surface observations and every 15 minutes for satellite loop. Satellite is IR (infrared), because it gets dark. If it does not, hit refresh. The loop is java script so you can adjust speed. Crank it up. It is the first show of the season.

Vincent

Surface link:

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/dis … duration=0

Satellite loop link:

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d … duration=6

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-03 11:07:46)

Vincent · 2012-10-03 11:09:49

Peak wind last hour 60mph NE Wyoming.

Vincent

Vincent · 2012-10-03 11:20:24

Current surface wind fields 15-30mph over eastern Montana and extreme western North Dakota. Moderate snow developing central and western North Dakota at 17Z.

Vincent

Vincent · 2012-10-03 11:32:27

This is a visible loop that is more representative to those with limited interpretive abilities. Understand this storm is central and mountain time, that is minus 1-2 hours EDT. Visible data is limited.

It is, way cool.

Vincent

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d … duration=5

Vincent · 2012-10-03 11:51:43

This is a surface data plot link that will up-date in southern Canada. Current data at 18z (max heating) shows wind 20-30mph with ambient max air temps of 5-7C. I converted it so you can see this is Gale Crater temps.

Earth, she is a weather machine. I am a weatherman.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/dis … duration=0

Let me hear some, LOL

Vincent

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-03 12:03:29)

Vincent · 2012-10-03 12:46:12

In the SW quad, temps 82 degrees F in Sidney Nebraska. Only those that have been there could appreciate that.

Let's get it on....

Vincent

Vincent · 2012-10-03 17:26:45

**Winter Storm Warning**

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2012

...EARLY WINTER STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
THURSDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND 10
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NORTH WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO AREAS OF NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022-023-051500-
/O.UPG.KFGF.WS.A.0003.121004T1200Z-121005T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.W.0003.121004T0600Z-121005T1500Z/
ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-
RED LAKE-EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...NEWFOLDEN...
RED LAKE...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON...
BAGLEY...BEMIDJI...MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA
330 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND BECOME 20 TO
30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CONTINUING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY BE NEAR ZERO WITHIN FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW ON TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES MAY
CAUSE THEM TO BREAK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

clark · 2012-10-03 17:32:14

The sun well come out, tommorow, bet your bottom dollar that tommorow, there'll be sun, some what may, tommorow...
Tommorow,
Tommorow

clark · 2012-10-03 19:46:39

Rubber ducky you're the one!

Koeng · 2012-10-04 16:55:12

You should create a ham radio station for weather
On every tuesday and thursday at 5:00!

-Koeng

Vincent · 2012-10-06 05:28:32

Today is the big transition day for Texas. Temperatures 25-40 degrees lower than yesterday. High temperatures have already occurred. Expect falling temperatures with NNE winds gusting to 35 mph. The link below should up-date every hour. Frost and freeze warnings will be issued late today.

Temperatures are around 10F in Yellow Stone this morning. Upslope snow dusting the eastern slopes as cold air slides down the front range. On the eastern seaboard cold air advection (CAA) starts around 14Z or 9 AM EDT. Winds increase 10-15 mph. Secondary wave moves NE with secondary cold front Sunday night. Slight risk of rain changing to wet snow above 3000 feet central Appalachians. Wet snow likely above 2500 feet into New England.

Gale warnings still in effect Lake Superior and Lake Michigan, winds 30-40 kts. Snow/rain showers across the region.

Vincent

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/dis … duration=0

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-06 05:29:12)

Vincent · 2012-10-06 07:56:25

At 6AM MDT 10 OCT 2012, Yellow Stone Park reports air temp of 9F or -13C. Wind chill -16C. That was a close one. Lol.

Vincent · 2012-10-06 08:14:37

Getting back to the "Blue Norther" developing in Texas. Multiple freezing levels are moving into southern Kansas, Panhandle of Oklahoma, and NW Texas. 12Z soundings show primary freezing levels of 900 mbs. Rain showers are becoming primarily ice pellets (sleet) with slight warm tong, degrading.

Conditions will improve after 18Z. A novelty, and witness to the power of subsidence and evaporative cooling. Vort max that is causing this will reform over southern Arkansas as it emerges east of the surface ridge in Texas amd will bring cold rain and possible elevation snow in the Appalachians Sunday night.

Radar Link: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ … duration=0

Vincent

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-06 08:15:34)

Vincent · 2012-10-06 08:39:50

12Z update with the NAM shows potent Vort Max over NE Colorado. Area of Moderate to heavy snow S/S+. This system will move to SE New York state Sunday night. Will drop snow levels to above 2000 feet West Virginia, Virginia and Pennsylvania, above 1500 feet North.

Vincent

Vincent · 2012-10-06 10:26:02

Gust to 25-30 mph in the central Appalachians with frontal passage. CAA moves into the Eastern Seaboard. Shallow air mass retarded CAA east of the high country by two hours.
S/S+ continues SSW Nebraska. Cheyenne Wyoming. NE Colorado, and NW Kansas.

It will make it that far east, but that time of year is not far off.

[

Last edited by Vincent (2012-10-06 17:01:10)

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