Current Gasoline/Petrol Price$

Stormrage · 2008-05-21 20:16:46

I don't really care if Saudi Arabia has a 100 year supply of crude oil, the problem is, as Winston Churchill said, is its concentration. Oil is concentrated in all the wrong places across the globe and it grants boons of cash to the undeserving, lazy, and violent.

You do realize that the people you are insulting are the only people in the world who are actually behind America? If they wanted to at this very moment they could send the dollar into a freefall that would ruin the American economy. Lazy and violent? They earned the right to be lazy when God gave them Oil. They have also earnt the right to be "violent" when they have been propping up the American military hardware companies. Why don't you actually complain about people who are in it for themselves. Not people who waste billions in deals that serves no one but Americans and Brits.

These people also seem highly unappreciative of all the cash we're putting into their pockets

Your not putting cash into their pockets and you haven't been for the last 30 years. The biggest consumers of Middle East Oil are East Asians and Europeans. How ever due to the arab states favourable relationship with USA they make their customers buy their money in dollars. I don't see a thank you from you or any other American.

One of the reason's I am not so sympathetic to the Palestinians is that they have rich friends who give them weapons

WTF? Just because of people they are related to? Are you serious?

and everything they need to kill Jews, yet they continue to let them live in squallor in the shadow of Israeli occupation.

Could it be because Israel controls the West Bank and Gaza while the other

If the Saudis wanted to put the Palestinians up in nice homes in their own territory free of violence, they probably could, especially with the prices were paying for gas today, but instead of sharing the wealth with their Palestinians brothers, they are using them for cannon-fodder against Israelis and programming them to "self-destruct" in order to create carnage.

The Saudis would never give the Palestinians their own land. That would automatically mean that the Israeli Jews who stole their land where in the right. Besides do you really think the Palestinians would forget about their homes? These people have pictures,deeds and keys to their old homes. You are dreaming if you think they would easily forget it just for a life of luxury.

The reason the Israelis are the way they are is in part because the Palestinians are the way they are, and the Saudis and their so-called "friends" the Iranians want to keep them that way. We would end this war alot sooner if half our population weren't so willing to give into them in the name of their opposition to war.

Thats not true. The Israeli Jews who came in to Palestine were racists who thought that their European culture was superior to the Arabs. They didn't care about the fact that the Arabs live in the supposedly empty land without a people. They thought the Arabs would appreciate being lifted out of ignorance. The Jews thought badly of the Arabs a long time ago. It's false to blame that on the Arabs. It's also so surprising to see you post on subject matters you barely know anything about. Your news channels must be doing you disservice because the Saudis and the Iranians have never ever been friends. It's not just because of the Sunni/Shia rivalry. It's also the fact that Iran is an Iranian country (to call them Persian is actually offensive) while Saudi Arabia is an Arab country.

This war by the way would have ended a long time ago if the American people could actually wise up and read a book or two. Do some research instead of swallowing what your Commander in Chief and his Vice says. When ever the Vice President of the Second most powerful entity in the world says that you have to break human rights law it's when you are supposed to stop listening to them.

An efficient market would not reward lazy people with the hard earned money of working people. People have to work hard to earn their paychecks while fat lazy Arabs sit on their duffs, steal money, and plot the next terrorist attack against their customers.

Racist? Check. Now that I think about it. It's not surprising. You did after all call for ethnic cleansings of Iraqi Sunnis.

In case your not aware. Oil is a high price commodity. It only requires a limited amount of people to do a limited amount of work while the payoff is huge.

think an oil cartel or any sort of artificial monopoly is stealing, and I think we have sufficient military resources to put a stop to that if we really wanted. I'm sorry, but I have no sympathy for those oil rick fat cats that have all that time on their hands to buy weapons and arm terrorists while pursuing their religious Jihad.

If only this was true. Which it isn't. Just you rambling on something you have no idea. OPEC hasn't been a cartel in a long time and their power is basically non-existent. The only power they have so far is whether to switch to Euros and helping their economy or to stick with the dying Dollar. So far all but two of them have choosen the latter. Also the Saudi countries don't finance terrorists. Some of their people do. Just like the way Americans financed the IRA terorrists who killed innocent British civilians. Expect the difference between the Arabs and USA in the 70-80s is that the Arabs are actually pro-active in fighting terrorism while the Americans just ignored it and watched oeople in the UK getting blown to pieces.

Maybe the oil fields of the Middle East ought to be considered a World Resource and exporpriated accordingly.

Maybe you should typing if you don't think through your ideas properly. Do you even know what will happen if Bush tried to implement this?

Iran and Saudi Arabia would collapse economically without their oil wealth, they don't work for it, they hire foreigners to pump it out for them, and they take the money and spend some of it on Jihad, and I think the rest of the World's population ought to have something to say about it.

I'm cringing just reading this. I actually feel embarrassed for you.

1: Iran and Saudi Arabia have a right to hire foreign. Some of those foreigners are actually Americans. Hey guess what? 11 million illegal Mexican workers are in the US right now. Why don't you complain about them first.
2: Only Iran and Saudi Arabia have a say on their money. If you don't like it don't buy oil. Walk to work.

The proof is in the price of gas and oil, it shouldn't go from $1.50 to $2 to $3 and then $4 per gallon all in a short period of time.

Nothing has changed from 1.50 to 4. Expect for the fact that Demand is going down and the value of the dollar is falling. If you have a problem with high gas prices move to the cities and then execute speculators. They are the people behind the high prices.

If this was an efficient market with plenty of suppliers, there wouldn't be bottlenecks that can be manipulated by a few to produce vast gyrations in the price of gasoline and oil.

A failure to grasp the basics of the Oil Industry. Nothing happens in a few short years. Things take decades.

I'd just say that's too bad and point my finger at those same despots and say it is all their fault for making us do this

Kinda funny that it's the US who is propping up these despots.

cIclops · 2008-05-22 02:27:25

The proof is in the price of gas and oil, it shouldn't go from $1.50 to $2 to $3 and then $4 per gallon all in a short period of time. If this was an efficient market with plenty of suppliers, there wouldn't be bottlenecks that can be manipulated by a few to produce vast gyrations in the price of gasoline and oil.

Oil is a basic commodity that can't be created. Production can't be quickly ramped up like the production of computers. Developing a new well can take several years if it's off shore. Refineries also take a long time to construct and become operational.

bobunf · 2008-05-22 13:08:12

Tom is confusing market efficiency with price elasticities. Markets aren’t going to get much more efficient than stocks, housing or oil. Nonetheless there are huge price swings in all three; especially stocks which have been far much volatile than oil.

To illustrate in a very simplified manner, in a perfectly efficient market, one can approximate the demand and supply curves with these straight line formulas (demand and supply curves more closely resemble exponential curves, but that’s way too complicated):

Y=mD+A
where “Y” is price, “m” the elasticity of demand with respect to price, “D” demand, and “A” a constant.

And

Y=nS+B
where “Y” is price, “n” the elasticity of supply with respect to price, “S” supply, and “B” a constant.

Using these formulas, let’s consider two scenarios:

Price elasticities for both supply and demand are high

m = -.1 (demand drops by 10% for each 1% rise in price)
n = .1 (supply rises by 10% for each 1% rise in price)
A = 100 (demand falls to zero at a price of 100)
B = 0 (supply is zero at a price of zero)

Y=-.1D+100 or D = 1000 -10Y
Y=.1S or S= 10Y

A 1% increase in price would decrease demand by 10%. Thus a 10% decrease in supply would change the price of the commodity by only 1% percent. This increase in price would elicit an increase in supply. The equilibrium price change of less than 1% can be calculated by solving the simultaneous equations for delta Y.

Price elasticities for both supply and demand are low

m = -10 (demand drops by 10% for each 1% rise in price)
n = 10 (supply rises by 10% for each 1% rise in price)
A = 100 (demand falls to zero at a price of 100)
B = 0 (supply is zero at a price of zero)

Y=-.1D+100 or D = 1000 -10Y
Y=.1S or S= 10Y

A 50% increase in price would decrease demand by 5%. Thus a 5% decrease in supply would change the price of the commodity by 50% percent. A 50% increase in price would elicit a 5% increase in supply. The equilibrium price change of less than 50% can be calculated by solving the simultaneous equations for delta Y.

The oil market has considerable inelasticies of both demand and supply. In the past ten years the price per barrel of oil has increased by a factor of about seven. Consumption has actually increased about 20%. Production has increased by a considerably lower factor than 7—actually about .2.

It is really not surprising that oil prices change drastically when the elasticities of supply and demand are so low. But those changes have little (nothing is perfect) to do with inefficiencies in the markets.

Bob

Tom Kalbfus · 2008-05-22 13:52:13

The proof is in the price of gas and oil, it shouldn't go from $1.50 to $2 to $3 and then $4 per gallon all in a short period of time. If this was an efficient market with plenty of suppliers, there wouldn't be bottlenecks that can be manipulated by a few to produce vast gyrations in the price of gasoline and oil.
Oil is a basic commodity that can't be created. Production can't be quickly ramped up like the production of computers. Developing a new well can take several years if it's off shore. Refineries also take a long time to construct and become operational.

Now imagine that you can synthesize automotive fuel using basic energy inputs such as electricity, or sunlight. Now as demand goes up you simply ramp up production rather than having to find new oil fields. More energy implies more cost, but economies of scale also apply for the production of energy as it does for anything else. A nuclear reactor that is twice as big as another smaller nuclear reactor can produce 8 times as much electricity, but the number of parts need not be twice or 8 times as much. The basic security systems to safeguard the fuel, and nuclear wasted only need to be implemented once, there is still only one site to guard, yet this plant can be producing 8 times as much electricity. The sale of electricity pays for security and failsafes, and since this cost is spread out over so many more kilowatt hours, each kilowatt hour costs less and much of this savings is passed on to the customer. Now if this customer recharges his electric car from the grid, this cost could be less than powering the car with a gasoline engine. Nuclear reactors can also recycle their fuel, and if they do it on site at the same reactor, this fuel can last a long time. Without the need to transport the fuel, there is less oppotunity for thieves to steal it and make a bomb with it.

Everytime we buy oil, we are helping to finance a nuclear program in Iran, every barrel of oil we burn slowly and economically gets turned into a nuclear bomb which may someday blow up one of our cities. The liberals and Democrats do not want to notice Iran's nuclear program, because to do so would be to admit that George Bush was right and they hate Bush.

Tom Kalbfus · 2008-05-22 13:59:01

Tom is confusing market efficiency with price elasticities. Markets aren’t going to get much more efficient than stocks, housing or oil. Nonetheless there are huge price swings in all three; especially stocks which have been far much volatile than oil.
To illustrate in a very simplified manner, in a perfectly efficient market, one can approximate the demand and supply curves with these straight line formulas (demand and supply curves more closely resemble exponential curves, but that’s way too complicated):
Y=mD+A
where “Y” is price, “m” the elasticity of demand with respect to price, “D” demand, and “A” a constant.
And
Y=nS+B
where “Y” is price, “n” the elasticity of supply with respect to price, “S” supply, and “B” a constant.
Using these formulas, let’s consider two scenarios:
Price elasticities for both supply and demand are high
m = -.1 (demand drops by 10% for each 1% rise in price)
n = .1 (supply rises by 10% for each 1% rise in price)
A = 100 (demand falls to zero at a price of 100)
B = 0 (supply is zero at a price of zero)
Y=-.1D+100 or D = 1000 -10Y
Y=.1S or S= 10Y
A 1% increase in price would decrease demand by 10%. Thus a 10% decrease in supply would change the price of the commodity by only 1% percent. This increase in price would elicit an increase in supply. The equilibrium price change of less than 1% can be calculated by solving the simultaneous equations for delta Y.
Price elasticities for both supply and demand are low
m = -10 (demand drops by 10% for each 1% rise in price)
n = 10 (supply rises by 10% for each 1% rise in price)
A = 100 (demand falls to zero at a price of 100)
B = 0 (supply is zero at a price of zero)
Y=-.1D+100 or D = 1000 -10Y
Y=.1S or S= 10Y
A 50% increase in price would decrease demand by 5%. Thus a 5% decrease in supply would change the price of the commodity by 50% percent. A 50% increase in price would elicit a 5% increase in supply. The equilibrium price change of less than 50% can be calculated by solving the simultaneous equations for delta Y.
The oil market has considerable inelasticies of both demand and supply. In the past ten years the price per barrel of oil has increased by a factor of about seven. Consumption has actually increased about 20%. Production has increased by a considerably lower factor than 7—actually about .2.
It is really not surprising that oil prices change drastically when the elasticities of supply and demand are so low. But those changes have little (nothing is perfect) to do with inefficiencies in the markets.
Bob

The market does not cause producers to efficiently produce oil to meet demand. They don't actually produce any oil, they only move it from below ground to above ground and their selling a fixed supply without producing more of it to replenish their depleted stock. Since we or they are not actually producing oil, we or they can't respond to increased demand except by looking for more oil. Oil is not always there to be found, and even if it is there we don't always know where it is.

The basic problem with the oil market is that we end up paying people to do nothing. Only a tiny percent of the cost of the oil is spent in getting it out of the ground, the vast majority of it is spent on the people under whose land it exists. One of the worst things you can do with an under developed country is to just give them money for doing nothing, yet that is basically what we do everytime we buy oil.

Tom Kalbfus · 2008-05-22 14:12:43

I don't really care if Saudi Arabia has a 100 year supply of crude oil, the problem is, as Winston Churchill said, is its concentration. Oil is concentrated in all the wrong places across the globe and it grants boons of cash to the undeserving, lazy, and violent.
You do realize that the people you are insulting are the only people in the world who are actually behind America? If they wanted to at this very moment they could send the dollar into a freefall that would ruin the American economy. Lazy and violent? They earned the right to be lazy when God gave them Oil. They have also earnt the right to be "violent" when they have been propping up the American military hardware companies. Why don't you actually complain about people who are in it for themselves. Not people who waste billions in deals that serves no one but Americans and Brits.

The Saudis play both sides, some of them are on our side and some like to kill Americans, they both take the steady flow of American dollars into there country for granted. Our enemies take our patronidge for granted and then they attack us with our own money.

These people also seem highly unappreciative of all the cash we're putting into their pockets
Your not putting cash into their pockets and you haven't been for the last 30 years. The biggest consumers of Middle East Oil are East Asians and Europeans. How ever due to the arab states favourable relationship with USA they make their customers buy their money in dollars. I don't see a thank you from you or any other American.

There is but one world market in oil. Every barrel we buy is a barrel not available to someone else, a barrel that some would buy from the Middle East. The higher we drive the World Market price in oil by buying some, the higher the Saudis and Iranians can sell their oil to someone else for.

One of the reason's I am not so sympathetic to the Palestinians is that they have rich friends who give them weapons
WTF? Just because of people they are related to? Are you serious?

If the Palestinians sold all the weapons they had ever received from their "Muslim brothers" to kill Jews with, they could probably afford nice homes for themselves. If all the free education they received on classes on how to build bombs were applied elsewhere, they could have skilled jobs. But the Saudis and the Iranians aren't interested in raising Palestinian standards of living, they just want to turn them into human weapons to kill Jews with.

[
and everything they need to kill Jews, yet they continue to let them live in squallor in the shadow of Israeli occupation.
Could it be because Israel controls the West Bank and Gaza while the other

If the Saudis wanted to put the Palestinians up in nice homes in their own territory free of violence, they probably could, especially with the prices were paying for gas today, but instead of sharing the wealth with their Palestinians brothers, they are using them for cannon-fodder against Israelis and programming them to "self-destruct" in order to create carnage.

The Saudis would never give the Palestinians their own land. That would automatically mean that the Israeli Jews who stole their land where in the right. Besides do you really think the Palestinians would forget about their homes? These people have pictures,deeds and keys to their old homes. You are dreaming if you think they would easily forget it just for a life of luxury.

The Saudis have plenty more land that the Israelis do, and the Israelis don't have any oil fields to speak of, they've held onto the core of Israel since 1948. Why should most Palestinians kill themselves over land most of them have never seen? Land that doesn't have oil to boot.

Gregori · 2008-05-22 14:40:05

Why should most Palestinians kill themselves over land most of them have never seen? Land that doesn't have oil to boot.

the same reasons as the israelis...

nobody asks them: why don't they just go live in New York or Europe or any were else? They won't get killed in a violent dispute over a small patch of land in the desert. you seem to think that they're "western" and "democratic" blah blah so they will fit in their with their judeo-christian brothers just fine!

honestly, this is obviously a stupid line of argument. you can't just kick people of their homeland and expect them to be happy with it, whether they be Israeli or Palestinian! There needs to be a democratic and fair acommodation of both groups, free of racism.

Grypd · 2008-05-22 15:36:47

Oil price has risen to $135 a barrel and this will have a real effect on everyone on this forums lives.

Is it the fault of OPEC actually in this case not. Though demand has risen there is no real reason for this price hike except for rampant speculation and by traders bets on prices going up becoming a self fulfilling phrophecy.

For now......Bubbles burst you know ask the South seas corporation or the Tulip bubble or the dot com bubble.

Commodore · 2008-05-22 18:36:45

Oddly enough, the housing and credit bubble may have a lot to do with it. I wish I remembered were I saw it, but I saw a graph showing a direct link between the falling value of the dollar, and the rising price of oil. The fall of the dollar is adversely effected every time the fed releases large sums of cash to keep liquidity in the banks when they make bad loans.

It may very well be simple inflation. Those buying and selling oil simply need more dollars to get the same value. Of course, $4/gal is still better than letting the banks destroy themselves, dragging everyone else down with them.

It also doesn't excuse the governments criminal restrictions on the oil industry and over taxation.

louis · 2008-05-22 21:07:41

The inflation effect is worldwide. It reflects a real excess of demand over supply with respect to oil.

Of course if your government reduces the value of your currency by printing money to pay off banks who have screwed up, the inflation effect will be worse.

The good news is that the higher the oil price rises, the more solar, wind and wave sources of energy become viable.

I think wave technology could become very important in the UK.

I like also the idea for "flying bedstead" wind energy facilities - which capture wind at the height of the jet stream. There the winds are dependable and MUCH, MUCH stronger than on the ground.

Personally I wouldn't mind if we said "We are going to phase out all use of oil within 10 years". We might be personally poorer by a margin, but our local economies would benefit from the economic stimulus and we would be freed of pressure from undemocratic regimes in the Middle East, North Africa and Russia.

Stormrage · 2008-05-23 03:05:23

Everytime we buy oil, we are helping to finance a nuclear program in Iran, every barrel of oil we burn slowly and economically gets turned into a nuclear bomb which may someday blow up one of our cities. The liberals and Democrats do not want to notice Iran's nuclear program, because to do so would be to admit that George Bush was right and they hate Bush.

Which is a good thing. If the Iranians use Nuclear power they would be cutting down their consumption of Oil and helping the environment.

The Saudis play both sides, some of them are on our side and some like to kill Americans, they both take the steady flow of American dollars into there country for granted. Our enemies take our patronidge for granted and then they attack us with our own money.

No they don't. The dictatorship that is in power thanks to America,France and Britain supports USA and Europe. That support comes with American and European promise to never help democracy groups and pay the Saudis bribes. The Saudi people hate their government and they hate USA for supporting it. Most of them can't be bothered to actually do anything though because life is good for those who have money and those who don't have anything are trying to suck up to the government officals to get them. The religous men who can't be corrupted by money support terrorism. They how ever are a tiny percent of the population. If the the entire population wanted to fund terrorism right now. American planes would be going down like flies in Iraq and Afghanistan.

There is but one world market in oil. Every barrel we buy is a barrel not available to someone else, a barrel that some would buy from the Middle East. The higher we drive the World Market price in oil by buying some, the higher the Saudis and Iranians can sell their oil to someone else for.

The Saudis have no real power to change the price. They can increase the price by cutting down on production but thats it. The people who have the real power aren't even Arabs. Blame it on the speculators. Go watch the news. When ever something happens in Africa of the Middle East price always goes up.

If the Palestinians sold all the weapons they had ever received from their "Muslim brothers" to kill Jews with, they could probably afford nice homes for themselves. If all the free education they received on classes on how to build bombs were applied elsewhere, they could have skilled jobs. But the Saudis and the Iranians aren't interested in raising Palestinian standards of living, they just want to turn them into human weapons to kill Jews with.

It's hard to have high living standards if the Israeli Settlers next door get 80% of the water despite being less numerous then you. Israel left Gaza because it was to dangerous and expensive to control it just because of a few settlements. Not because the Palestinians were super nice. All that is left is for the West Bank.

The Saudis have plenty more land that the Israelis do, and the Israelis don't have any oil fields to speak of, they've held onto the core of Israel since 1948. Why should most Palestinians kill themselves over land most of them have never seen? Land that doesn't have oil to boot.

The Generation of Jews who came to Israel never saw their land for 2000 years. So it's ok in your books to take over a certain land has long has it wasn't recent?

Oil price has risen to $135 a barrel and this will have a real effect on everyone on this forums lives.

Has a guy who takes the bus. My ticket price won't increase this year. My food bill will probably change though.

It also doesn't excuse the governments criminal restrictions on the oil industry and over taxation.

This is why I love Americans. Despite taxes on Oil companies being cut and them getting record profits you complain about taxes. The Oil companies aren't losing any money. They are making so much money they can wipe their asses with a Benjamin. If anything the government should threaten them with a tax rise if they don't decrease the share of money they get from petrol. It's not going to hurt them much. If they lose 50% of their profits they would still be filthy rich. It's not like they are reinvesting that money into alternative energy.

I think wave technology could become very important in the UK.

It's to unreliable for my taste. Whats going to happen if the seas are calm? Thats why I'm suspicious of almost all renewable methods. I personally like the Desert idea being flouted by the Germans. Their plan is to put thousands of solar panels in North Africa. The energy from there will be sent to Europe and the excess energy will be sent to molten tanks of salt. When there is a high demand for energy which the solar panels can't fill the molten tank will be used for extra energy. At night the Molten tank will be in use to power Europe. Another thing thats great about this is the fact that it will use excess energy to desalinate the water for the Arabs in North Africa.

Tom Kalbfus · 2008-05-23 09:17:53

Everytime we buy oil, we are helping to finance a nuclear program in Iran, every barrel of oil we burn slowly and economically gets turned into a nuclear bomb which may someday blow up one of our cities. The liberals and Democrats do not want to notice Iran's nuclear program, because to do so would be to admit that George Bush was right and they hate Bush.
Which is a good thing. If the Iranians use Nuclear power they would be cutting down their consumption of Oil and helping the environment.

They would also cut down on the consumption of oil when they kill millions of human beings when they nuke New York City, or Los Angeles or Washington DC, and we would further cut oil consumption when we kill millions of human beings when we retaliate against Iran. The economic effects of even a small nuclear war between two countries would be devastating worldwide. Most likely Iran's export oil terminals would be hit by us or rendered inoperational, and Iran's oil would be off the World market for some time to follow, this would also reduce the consumption of oil world wide, but perhaps the goal should be to mitigate the effects of an energy shortage rather than just to force us to use less oil by destroying suppliers and customers in a nuclear war.

The Saudis play both sides, some of them are on our side and some like to kill Americans, they both take the steady flow of American dollars into there country for granted. Our enemies take our patronidge for granted and then they attack us with our own money.
No they don't. The dictatorship that is in power thanks to America,France and Britain supports USA and Europe. That support comes with American and European promise to never help democracy groups and pay the Saudis bribes. The Saudi people hate their government and they hate USA for supporting it. Most of them can't be bothered to actually do anything though because life is good for those who have money and those who don't have anything are trying to suck up to the government officals to get them. The religous men who can't be corrupted by money support terrorism. They how ever are a tiny percent of the population. If the the entire population wanted to fund terrorism right now. American planes would be going down like flies in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Interesting reality you've constructed there. By Saudis, I mean all the Saudis, not just those in the government that are friendly to us. If Saudis are angry at us, that anger is displaced. We do not control their government, if we did, we'd make it the 51st State, and then they'd have democracy, and we'd have their oil. I'm sure US official would rather have cheap oil than make a few Saudi officials rich. Saudi Citizens are mostly "spoiled brats", they live quite well for themselves at our expense when we pay $4 per gallon for gasoline and up. I'm sure expensive gasoline doesn't make our politicians very popular and I'm sure they are all quite aware of that. If we had effective control over the Saudi government, our oil companies would be all over the place drilling for oil and looking to more oil fields to maximise production, but we don't have that situation, so its basically a left-wing fantasy that we control the Saudi government designed to make Saudis mad at us.

There is but one world market in oil. Every barrel we buy is a barrel not available to someone else, a barrel that some would buy from the Middle East. The higher we drive the World Market price in oil by buying some, the higher the Saudis and Iranians can sell their oil to someone else for.
The Saudis have no real power to change the price. They can increase the price by cutting down on production but thats it. The people who have the real power aren't even Arabs. Blame it on the speculators. Go watch the news. When ever something happens in Africa of the Middle East price always goes up.

Hmm, "I speculate that the price of oil will reach $200 per barrel by next year." There now I speculated on oil, did I drive the price up? "Or perhaps the price of oil will drop to $50 a barrel by next year." Will that statement lower the price of oil? "Perhaps the Chinese economy will collapse, maybe there will be another revolution with resulting chaos and economic collapse, this might reduce the demand for oil and thereby price." Another speculation. Does speculation on what might occur in the future affect the price? How do we stop such wild and irresponsible statements? I am only exercising my freedom of speech by saying such things, do we abolish the First Amendment?

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

Now do we allow the Government to say, "Hush!" and not allow us to speculate on the future price of oil for fear that we might actually affect that price through such speculation? If we can't talk about oil, then how can we propose a plan to do something about it?

If the Palestinians sold all the weapons they had ever received from their "Muslim brothers" to kill Jews with, they could probably afford nice homes for themselves. If all the free education they received on classes on how to build bombs were applied elsewhere, they could have skilled jobs. But the Saudis and the Iranians aren't interested in raising Palestinian standards of living, they just want to turn them into human weapons to kill Jews with.
It's hard to have high living standards if the Israeli Settlers next door get 80% of the water despite being less numerous then you. Israel left Gaza because it was to dangerous and expensive to control it just because of a few settlements. Not because the Palestinians were super nice. All that is left is for the West Bank.

If the Israeli settlers can evacuate the Gaza Strip, why not also evacuate the Palestinians as well? If the Palestinians are not there, they cannot fire rockets into Israel from that location. Gaza would make a nice nature preserve, all sorts of endangered creatures that are threatened by development could live there and not be hunted, all the roads would be closed, all buildings would be raized to the ground and dirt piled on top. I would love to see Gaza in its natural state, instead of all these goons fireing rockets from the place. A place devoid of humans might just be what is required to end the rocket attacks, that is surely a solution King Solomon would have been proud of. Palestinians have proven that they are incapable of being good neighbors to the Israelis, so maybe they shouldn't be allowed to be neighbors at all as a consequence of that behavior. They can all live in Iran, since Iran is sponsoring them, plenty of land in Iran from which they can build houses and live, and none of their small home made rockets can reach Israel from there.

The Saudis have plenty more land that the Israelis do, and the Israelis don't have any oil fields to speak of, they've held onto the core of Israel since 1948. Why should most Palestinians kill themselves over land most of them have never seen? Land that doesn't have oil to boot.
The Generation of Jews who came to Israel never saw their land for 2000 years. So it's ok in your books to take over a certain land has long has it wasn't recent?

But we don't have a time machine where we can rewide time back to 1948 and then say we should not establish the State of Israel, that has already been done so it is not one of your options. We live in the situation we have now and must deal with the history we've got. If I had a time machine, I'd go back to the 8th century and kidnap Mohammad before he ever amounted to anything and bring him back to the 21st century, there would be no muslims in this altered history, and much of the situation between Jews and Arabs would not then exist. But that is my fantasy. In reality Israel exists and has existed since 1948, the Arabs are trying to change this situation by destroying Israel, and so long as they try to do this there can be no peace. There is no way to reason with someone who wants to destroy you, so the best solution I can see now is to remove all Palestinians from the Gaza strip and turn the whole place into a nature preserve.

Oil price has risen to $135 a barrel and this will have a real effect on everyone on this forums lives.
Has a guy who takes the bus. My ticket price won't increase this year. My food bill will probably change though.

Diesel costs more than gasoline by the way. I don't like my lifestyle being forcibly changed by some outside force. They say that necessity is the mother of invention, we have the necessity, so now we need the invention such as alternate fueled and powered cars, not reducing our standard of living and tightening belts.

It also doesn't excuse the governments criminal restrictions on the oil industry and over taxation.
This is why I love Americans. Despite taxes on Oil companies being cut and them getting record profits you complain about taxes. The Oil companies aren't losing any money. They are making so much money they can wipe their asses with a Benjamin. If anything the government should threaten them with a tax rise if they don't decrease the share of money they get from petrol. It's not going to hurt them much. If they lose 50% of their profits they would still be filthy rich. It's not like they are reinvesting that money into alternative energy.

The classic liberal response is to blame American Oild companies, they don't own the oil fields in Saudi Arabia, they used to, but the Saudi government nationalized them in the 1970s, so all the oil companies can do now is:
1) buy oil on the international market and pass on the costs to their customers.
or
2) Look for new oil fields and start drilling for new oil, but the liberals say "do not drill here, you'll upset the carabu, or don't drill their, you'll spoil my view of the ocean and kill fish with your oil spills."

That's all I have time for right now.

Gregori · 2008-05-23 09:52:05

Total Bullshit.

The Oil companies love the current high prices and have had their profits jump to incredibly highs since 2003!! They love the current situation. They are totally profiteering of the instabilities and wars in the Middle East.

Oil companies have nice little things called "profit sharing agreements" with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. They make as much money out of speculation as the Opec countries.

bobunf · 2008-05-23 12:05:51

“Interesting reality”

Tom, I don’t feel it’s worth engaging with Stormrage. He appears to have an ideological commitment and a very elaborate interpretation of reality, including history, which appears to be impervious to facts, new or different information, the reasoning of others and any willingness to understand others interests and points of view.

There’s no sense in engaging with an ideologically driven closed mind. You can’t change or influence that mind, and his views are so filtered through his ideology that the information and reasoning he presents won’t enhance your understanding of reality. He won’t change or influence you; and you won’t change or influence him.

It’s all a waste of bits.

Bob

Commodore · 2008-05-23 21:13:53

Total Bullshit.
The Oil companies love the current high prices and have had their profits jump to incredibly highs since 2003!! They love the current situation. They are totally profiteering of the instabilities and wars in the Middle East.
Oil companies have nice little things called "profit sharing agreements" with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. They make as much money out of speculation as the Opec countries.

The US government get a higher percent that the oil companies do. That is why nothing is changing.

Commodore · 2008-05-23 21:25:16

It also doesn't excuse the governments criminal restrictions on the oil industry and over taxation.
This is why I love Americans. Despite taxes on Oil companies being cut and them getting record profits you complain about taxes. The Oil companies aren't losing any money. They are making so much money they can wipe their asses with a Benjamin. If anything the government should threaten them with a tax rise if they don't decrease the share of money they get from petrol. It's not going to hurt them much. If they lose 50% of their profits they would still be filthy rich. It's not like they are reinvesting that money into alternative energy.

Thats because we have a basic understanding of economics. Do you know what happens when you tax a corporation? They pass the cost on to the consumers until the consumers refuse to buy it and they go into the red, the stock price plummets, and they go out of business, or alternatively, they eat the cost, go into the red, the stock price plummets and they go out of business.

What exactly entitles you to tell others what to do with their money?

Stormrage · 2008-05-24 04:13:50

They would also cut down on the consumption of oil when they kill millions of human beings when they nuke New York City, or Los Angeles or Washington DC, and we would further cut oil consumption when we kill millions of human beings when we retaliate against Iran.

There is no evidence of Iran having weapons. Wanting weapons. In fact these so called weapons research exists only in the mind of simple minded people. Every single shred of evidence that Iran wanted weapons has been disproven. The dumbest moment was when American intelligence officers came up with an Iranian laptop that supposedly contained designs for a weapon. I'm not sure if American news organisations expect for the Time reported it. But it was actually quite embarrassing watching the UN and EU calling them out on their fake evidence.

The economic effects of even a small nuclear war between two countries would be devastating worldwide. Most likely Iran's export oil terminals would be hit by us or rendered inoperational, and Iran's oil would be off the World market for some time to follow, this would also reduce the consumption of oil world wide, but perhaps the goal should be to mitigate the effects of an energy shortage rather than just to force us to use less oil by destroying suppliers and customers in a nuclear war.

Even IF Iran had weapons. Who the hell will they use against? Israel? That country that has Palestinians and Islams holiest mosques (not counting the holy cities of Mecca and Medina)? Will they get a submarine and bombard USA? A country thats several times bigger then Iran? It's all bloody fantasy.

Whats probably going to happen is Israel will try a pre-emptive strike and then Iranians will shoot them down causing global tensions.

Interesting reality you've constructed there.

Aren't you the guy living in the fantasy world? You get your facts from news channels. To make it worse AMERICAN news channels.

. If Saudis are angry at us, that anger is displaced. We do not control their government, if we did, we'd make it the 51st State,

You protect the government.

and then they'd have democracy, and we'd have their oil.

They would probably argue for better deals when it comes to trade.

I'm sure US official would rather have cheap oil than make a few Saudi officials rich. Saudi Citizens are mostly "spoiled brats", they live quite well for themselves at our expense when we pay $4 per gallon for gasoline and up.

If you don't like the Saudis that much take a bus. Even though the oil that fuels your car doesn't come from Saudi Arabia.

If we had effective control over the Saudi government, our oil companies would be all over the place drilling for oil and looking to more oil fields to maximise production, but we don't have that situation, so its basically a left-wing fantasy that we control the Saudi government designed to make Saudis mad at us.

It's a right wing fantasy that the Saudi Arabian is free to do what ever it wants. Keeping the House of Saud in power means lucrative deals. The deals are so lucrative that Americans arrested three British men who were behind a HUGE deal with Saudi Arabia that involved bribes.

Hmm, "I speculate that the price of oil will reach $200 per barrel by next year." There now I speculated on oil, did I drive the price up? "Or perhaps the price of oil will drop to $50 a barrel by next year." Will that statement lower the price of oil? "Perhaps the Chinese economy will collapse, maybe there will be another revolution with resulting chaos and economic collapse, this might reduce the demand for oil and thereby price." Another speculation. Does speculation on what might occur in the future affect the price? How do we stop such wild and irresponsible statements? I am only exercising my freedom of speech by saying such things, do we abolish the First Amendment?

Either this is a bad joke or you really shouldn't be allowed to use your keyboard. Your making a fool of your self. You have no idea how the market works.

[/img]

Now do we allow the Government to say, "Hush!" and not allow us to speculate on the future price of oil for fear that we might actually affect that price through such speculation? If we can't talk about oil, then how can we propose a plan to do something about it?

Actually the government can. It happened a couple of weeks ago when people were spreading rumours about a major bank in the UK. The Bank of England stepped in after the shares of the bank crashed.

If the Israeli settlers can evacuate the Gaza Strip, why not also evacuate the Palestinians as well? If the Palestinians are not there, they cannot fire rockets into Israel from that location.

Think about this for a moment. Where will the Palestinians go? Israel? No way. Egypt? No way since Israel can't force thousands of people to go to a sovereign country that hasn't been told about it. Your idea makes no sense at all.

Gaza would make a nice nature preserve, all sorts of endangered creatures that are threatened by development could live there and not be hunted, all the roads would be closed, all buildings would be raized to the ground and dirt piled on top.

You know most of the 500 Arab villages destroyed during the war are actually supporting wild life? The Jews wanted to hide their crime so they made sure cactus grew there.

. A place devoid of humans might just be what is required to end the rocket attacks, that is surely a solution King Solomon would have been proud of. Palestinians have proven that they are incapable of being good neighbors to the Israelis, so maybe they shouldn't be allowed to be neighbors at all as a consequence of that behavior. They can all live in Iran, since Iran is sponsoring them, plenty of land in Iran from which they can build houses and live, and none of their small home made rockets can reach Israel from there.

I think King Solomon would be more upset over the war crimes committed by his people.

But we don't have a time machine where we can rewide time back to 1948 and then say we should not establish the State of Israel, that has already been done so it is not one of your options. We live in the situation we have now and must deal with the history we've got. If I had a time machine, I'd go back to the 8th century and kidnap Mohammad before he ever amounted to anything and bring him back to the 21st century, there would be no muslims in this altered history, and much of the situation between Jews and Arabs would not then exist. But that is my fantasy. In reality Israel exists and has existed since 1948, the Arabs are trying to change this situation by destroying Israel, and so long as they try to do this there can be no peace. There is no way to reason with someone who wants to destroy you, so the best solution I can see now is to remove all Palestinians from the Gaza strip and turn the whole place into a nature preserve.

That makes no sense whats so ever. That is fait accompli. The exact same thing I was talking about earlier. Your reasoning for Palestinians not getting their land is because they didn't see it. Yet you are willing to ignore the Jews who never saw their land for thousands of years because they came 60 years ago. So basically 60 years trumps 2000 years? So what if Palestinains managed to destroy Israel and the Jews wanted to still live in there? Would you tell them no because Israel was already destroyed?

Diesel costs more than gasoline by the way. I don't like my lifestyle being forcibly changed by some outside force. They say that necessity is the mother of invention, we have the necessity, so now we need the invention such as alternate fueled and powered cars, not reducing our standard of living and tightening belts.

This is a good example of whats wrong with people. Wanting some kinda miracle cure to fix their problems. Well good luck mate. Nothing is coming in the near future that will help you keep your living standards.

The classic liberal response is to blame American Oild companies, they don't own the oil fields in Saudi Arabia, they used to, but the Saudi government nationalized them in the 1970s, so all the oil companies can do now is:
1) buy oil on the international market and pass on the costs to their customers.
or
2) Look for new oil fields and start drilling for new oil, but the liberals say "do not drill here, you'll upset the carabu, or don't drill their, you'll spoil my view of the ocean and kill fish with your oil spills."

I'm not sure if this is a typical right wing response or the response of someone who doesn't know what he's talking about.

1: Oil companies don't own the fields but owning an oil field isn't the be all and end all of the oil industry. There are many many stages in the oil. The majority of the cost comes AFTER the oil is pumped out. Especially in the Middle East where the oil is cheap to take out.
2: Only a fool would damage the environment in a foolish pursuit of commodities that will run out. Especially when the Oil companies refuse to pay for the damage they cause. Exxon Valdez spill is still in the courts.

Tom, I don’t feel it’s worth engaging with Stormrage. He appears to have an ideological commitment and a very elaborate interpretation of reality, including history, which appears to be impervious to facts, new or different information, the reasoning of others and any willingness to understand others interests and points of view.

I'm questioning if I should even bother talking to you guys any more. You guys are the one living in a fantasy world not me. Nothing I have ever said in this forum has ever been proven to be untrue. I said Hitler wanted to exterminate the Jews after the invasion of '41. No one proved it wrong they just said it was wrong. I'm saying that American Oil barely comes from the Middle East. No one has proven it wrong. I think it's you guys who have an idealogical problems. I'm centre-Right but you guys are so far right you make me look like a pinko. An Educated communist. Especially when Tom keeps talking about stuff he has no idea about. Which is so sad that I can't be bothered to laugh at his speculation comment.

Thats because we have a basic understanding of economics. Do you know what happens when you tax a corporation? They pass the cost on to the consumers until the consumers refuse to buy it and they go into the red, the stock price plummets, and they go out of business, or alternatively, they eat the cost, go into the red, the stock price plummets and they go out of business.
What exactly entitles you to tell others what to do with their money?

You don't seem to understand economics yourself. There is a point to most people especially Americans. When they will refuse to take on higher petrol prices. The Oil companies know that and so do the government. If a strong President with a backbone threatened them they would back down. There is now way the Oil companies would be able to portray themselves has victims and pass on the costs. Especially now that the Oil companies are earning record profit.

Gregori · 2008-05-24 07:54:49

Total Bullshit.
The Oil companies love the current high prices and have had their profits jump to incredibly highs since 2003!! They love the current situation. They are totally profiteering of the instabilities and wars in the Middle East.
Oil companies have nice little things called "profit sharing agreements" with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. They make as much money out of speculation as the Opec countries.
The US government get a higher percent that the oil companies do. That is why nothing is changing.

you guys are paranoid about taxation. What are the feds spending that on? a fancy mansion with a pool?

Tom Kalbfus · 2008-05-24 08:37:55

“Interesting reality”
Tom, I don’t feel it’s worth engaging with Stormrage. He appears to have an ideological commitment and a very elaborate interpretation of reality, including history, which appears to be impervious to facts, new or different information, the reasoning of others and any willingness to understand others interests and points of view.
There’s no sense in engaging with an ideologically driven closed mind. You can’t change or influence that mind, and his views are so filtered through his ideology that the information and reasoning he presents won’t enhance your understanding of reality. He won’t change or influence you; and you won’t change or influence him.
It’s all a waste of bits.
Bob

Yeah, I know. One can always hope that someday they might get it. I'd like to see the oil problem solved someday, but this would require actually solving the problem and not engaging in the search for scapegoats. When I see high gasoline prices, I get mad. The liberals want me to blame the oil companies for them, I guess that's because for them, they make the most convenient scapegoats. Remember the old joke about someone looking for his car keys under a streetlamp and someone else approaches them asking what he looking for. He say, he lost his car keys "over there!" and he point way out there in the darkness beyond the street lamp. The stranger asks that if he lost his car keys "out there" then why is he looking "here" under the streetlamp for them? And he answers, "because here he can see."

Democrats love to blame US Oil companies because they can easily affect them with "remedial legislation", and they refuse to look beyond the US borders for the cause of high gas prices, because that would be inconvenient for them as it so much easier to tax and penalize a domestic oil company, although it doesn't do the public any good. We import 40% of our oil, that fact has not escaped me.

Now when I see high gas prices, I could blame the gas station owner, but there are thousands of gas stations, even the Democrats realize that accusing thousands of independent gas station owners of price collusion is not going to fly, and too many of them vote in Presidential Elections besides. The big corporate CEO is the easiest scapegoat, I think they might as well "blame the Jews" with the same arguments, or accuse old ladies of being witches with the same sort of reasoning.

Stormrage · 2008-05-24 10:23:15

I'd like to see the oil problem solved someday, but this would require actually solving the problem and not engaging in the search for scapegoats.

Dude you are the one looking for scapegoats. You keep insulting Arabs despite the fact that they have no control over the oil prices. I keep telling you that. Yet you seem to believe that OPEC still has it's old power. YOU are the one who isn't getting it. You don't listen to anybody who disagrees with you.

Democrats love to blame US Oil companies because they can easily affect them with "remedial legislation", and they refuse to look beyond the US borders for the cause of high gas prices, because that would be inconvenient for them as it so much easier to tax and penalize a domestic oil company, although it doesn't do the public any good. We import 40% of our oil, that fact has not escaped me.

No one is blaming the oil companies for the high prices. It's something you've dreamed up. What we are doing is saying that they can go easy on the profit they take. You don't seem to understand how oil profits work. The majority of the costs doesn't come from the Middle East or in fact extracting the oil. It doesn't come from the Indian gas owner being mistaken for an Arab by a redneck. The costs comes from the oil markets and the refineries who are at max capacity.

Here is what Shell has to say about high oil prices.

"What we say and what we see is there are no physical shortages," Shell's Jeroen van der Veer told Reuters television. He runs the world's second-largest fully publicly traded oil firm by market value.
"There are no tankers waiting in the Middle East, there are no cars waiting at gasoline stations because they are out of stock. This has to do with psychology in the markets and you cannot forecast psychology"

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/id … 9720080522

I think they might as well "blame the Jews" with the same arguments, or accuse old ladies of being witches with the same sort of reasoning.

Funny thing coming from the guy who blames Arabs for his suffering and enters the terrorism of racism. If Anti-semitism actually meant the hatred of semite speaking people. You sir would be an anti-semite. Have fun and go learn what speculation is.

bobunf · 2008-05-24 11:59:15

“they might as well ‘blame the Jews’ with the same arguments, or accuse old ladies of being witches with the same sort of reasoning”

I think it’s more like blaming the messenger, a tradition going back further than Jews or witches. And about as useful.

Many large oil companies have the equivalent of large stocks of oil. When the price goes up the value of their assets rise, and contemporary accounting requires that that increase in asset value be recognized—hence if oil goes up, their profits rise even if they buy or sell nothing, and engage in no other nefarious activities.

It’s as if I were required to pay taxes on the increase in the value of my house even though I didn’t sell it and didn’t do anything to increase it’s value. And then other people criticized me for gouging, and said that a “windfall profits” tax should be added to the usual taxes. It’s just silly.

I hope and believe that most politicians understand that all this is just theatre; and that they won’t actually do anything except blame the lack of action on the evil influence of wicked “special interests.” To whom, of course, they are all opposed.

The entity that has the greatest opportunity to manipulate the price is the United States, which could easily eliminate all importation of oil within ten years by slightly increasing domestic production and reducing consumption by about half. The diffusing technology of plug-in hybrids alone could accomplish this reduction for gasoline with very small investment and little economic dislocation—except within the oil industry, which would probably be deemed worthy of subsidies at that point—like certain banks today.

One of the reasons this won’t happen is because it could. The possibility will depress oil prices. The current price situation is a bubble based on the idea that oil prices will always rise. Nothing always rises.

For those who doubt this, listen to your bones. If you had the opportunity to invest all of your savings, your retirement benefits and the proceeds of a large loan (backed by Guido’s promise that you would pay) in an investment which would only be profitable as long as the price of oil stayed above $100 a barrel; would you do it? Are you that sure?

I didn’t think so.

Bob

Stormrage · 2008-05-24 12:30:32

These guys are crazy.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/id … 7220080506

NEW YORK, May 6 (Reuters) - The number of options positions betting on oil reaching $200 a barrel has tripled since the start of the year as prices have kept surging to fresh peaks, according to Reuters data.

I'm always amused by the inability of humans to learn from their mistakes. The South Sea bubble should have been the last bubble in history but they just keep coming up. Now that the Housing markets around the world look like they are about to pop. You still have people playing with Oil.

Here's to the hope that Central Banks will refuse to bail them out and they won't drag us down with them.

falkor · 2012-10-17 16:08:06

here's to the hope that someone will make an alternative ENERGY SOURCE e.g. Hydrogen, now THAT would make my day

GW Johnson · 2012-10-27 08:58:00

The two largest oil finds in history were North America and the Middle East. All the other finds since have been far smaller. Even the things speculated about (like the Arctic) are figured as far smaller. That's just an unpleasant fact. Even the new oil boom in the US Williston Basin is only about the size of the Alaska North Slope find, and that peaked in 15 short years, although it is still in production.

Another unpleasant fact: he who has the most oil to sell has the greatest influence on its price. That's been OPEC since US production peaked about 1970. OPEC formed in 1963 specifically to be a price-fixing cartel. That's what they do. I watch what they do, rather than listening to what they say. Truth really is not a premium item in most Middle Eastern countries in recent centuries.

A third unpleasant fact: western civilization was "designed" by the dead hand of Adam Smith to run on cheap fuel. Fuel is no longer cheap, so things don't "work right" anymore. Since 1973, every major economic downturn has correlated to inflation-adjusted fuel prices at or above 150% of what appears to be the long-constant supply-and-demand value in a market not limited by supply (on top of which speculator "bubbles" and cartel punitive-pricing events get superposed). Good times are associated with the lower supply-and-demand-driven prices. Government policies seem to have had very little to do with any of this (bad news for you political activists and ideologues out there).

A fourth unpleasant opinion: the Middle Eastern fields may be peaking in production the way US peaked in 1970. This is a suspicion, not a confirmed fact. It is based on the observation that Saudi production levels in recent years have been lower, but have never exceeded, their 2004 levels. That's a bad sign in a world where demand is skyrocketing as China and India industrialize. If the speculation is true, then from this point forward we live in a world where supply always falls short of demand, so that prices spiral rapidly upward, even without the effects of speculator "bubbles" and cartel punitive pricing.

A fifth unpleasant observation: it seems to take about 40 years for one industry to fully replace another, looking at history, such as petroleum vs whale oil. There are many examples. You just don't do this in a handful of years.

Substantive conclusions: We should have earnestly started finding a replacement for oil about 40 years ago, instead of screwing around making scads of short term profits on something we knew was ultimately finite. Now it looks like we face about 40 years of chaos, war, and economic depression. That's the price we are going to pay for allowing money to influence public policies (no matter whose or what form of government) to the exclusion of ordinary common sense, or any notion of the public good.

GW

Glandu · 2012-10-30 09:50:32

My main problem is your third point. Whenever I speak politics here in France, people(both left & right) refer to the pre-1973 paradise. Oil ain't cheap since 1973, & France is in permanent crisis since 1973(and is not the only one). I fear correlation is not random.

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