President of India calls for joint - US/Indian habitat on Mars by 2050

Gregori · 2008-05-15 07:57:30

So would theirs.
And so would yours... etc etc
So... We just need to hope that the Politburo never decides to commit economic suicide.
Actually we just need to use our technology to mass produce everything cheaper than the Chinese can.

If you could produce it cheaper than China, you would already be doing so. However its very clear that you can't.

I don't support how the chinese goverment run their state, but I think that going to change over the next couple of decades. If there is already economic co-operation with China, you aren't proving anything by freezing them out of space. It hypocrtical and just plain silly!!

China is going to get into space exploration and they probably will have the resources to do it on a massive scale. They are probably going to become the most powerful country in the world in a few decades. I'd prefer to do a deal with them in the meantime.

You can be very influential through co-operation and by not being hostile all the time.

cIclops · 2008-05-15 22:20:52

If you could produce it cheaper than China, you would already be doing so. However its very clear that you can't.
I don't support how the chinese goverment run their state, but I think that going to change over the next couple of decades. If there is already economic co-operation with China, you aren't proving anything by freezing them out of space. It hypocrtical and just plain silly!!
China is going to get into space exploration and they probably will have the resources to do it on a massive scale. They are probably going to become the most powerful country in the world in a few decades. I'd prefer to do a deal with them in the meantime.
You can be very influential through co-operation and by not being hostile all the time.

Just as China's low labor rates made it competitive against Korea and Taiwan, India and other countries will be able to out compete China. The dream of highly automated factories is still a dream, yet one day it will be realized and the economics will change again.

There's nothing magical about China, just because they have a enormous population and are developing quickly doesn't mean they will become "the most powerful country in the world in a few decades". The same was said about Japan in the 1970s, it was going to overtake the US economy by the 21st Century and look where Japan is today. Most of China is grossly under developed, it has enormous environmental, infrastructure and educational problems. China is run by an autocratic communist government that tolerates no opposition and oppresses any signs of democracy. That type of government becomes fossilized and dysfunctional.

China's interest in space appears to be solely military and political, they have no civilian space program, it's all under military control. Their aim seems to be to prove to the world that they are as advanced as any other country, when clearly they are not. Their human space program is equivalent to the Russian and US programs of the mid 1960s.

Considering that China is rapidly becoming an adversary, it would be foolish indeed to provide them with more dual use technology. Once the government has radically changed to embrace democracy, China would be welcomed by the rest of the world that it hasn't already bribed or threatened.

Gregori · 2008-05-16 09:02:28

If you could produce it cheaper than China, you would already be doing so. However its very clear that you can't.
I don't support how the chinese goverment run their state, but I think that going to change over the next couple of decades. If there is already economic co-operation with China, you aren't proving anything by freezing them out of space. It hypocrtical and just plain silly!!
China is going to get into space exploration and they probably will have the resources to do it on a massive scale. They are probably going to become the most powerful country in the world in a few decades. I'd prefer to do a deal with them in the meantime.
You can be very influential through co-operation and by not being hostile all the time.
Just as China's low labor rates made it competitive against Korea and Taiwan, India and other countries will be able to out compete China. The dream of highly automated factories is still a dream, yet one day it will be realized and the economics will change again.
There's nothing magical about China, just because they have a enormous population and are developing quickly doesn't mean they will become "the most powerful country in the world in a few decades". The same was said about Japan in the 1970s, it was going to overtake the US economy by the 21st Century and look where Japan is today. Most of China is grossly under developed, it has enormous environmental, infrastructure and educational problems. China is run by an autocratic communist government that tolerates no opposition and oppresses any signs of democracy. That type of government becomes fossilized and dysfunctional.
China's interest in space appears to be solely military and political, they have no civilian space program, it's all under military control. Their aim seems to be to prove to the world that they are as advanced as any other country, when clearly they are not. Their human space program is equivalent to the Russian and US programs of the mid 1960s.
Considering that China is rapidly becoming an adversary, it would be foolish indeed to provide them with more dual use technology. Once the government has radically changed to embrace democracy, China would be welcomed by the rest of the world that it hasn't already bribed or threatened.

Ohh c'mon! You already do massive trading with China (and loads of other undemocratic states, like Saudi Arabia.) They already have the capacity to launch nukes at the US, so no real worries about dual use technology.

China isn't as advanced in hi-technology yet, but it will be. It has the benefit of seeing all that has come before and many hi-tech jobs will flow into China soon enough. It playing a game of catch up, but it'll get there.

All Space programs started out as millitary operations at first. Its a bit rich to say this is something unique to China. Eventually, It will branch into civillian operations.

About the automated factories: What makes you think that technology will be kept ot yourselves? Not in the globalized world. I don't forsee the Multinational corporations moving out of the developing world just yet unless Goverments impose controls.

It would likely still be much cheaper to produce goods in those parts of the world (with the fancy machines) because the price of everything is still cheaper there and you can avoid taxes. Even Automated machines would require lots of maintenance staff!

cIclops · 2008-05-16 13:48:46

Me do massive trading with China? All I buy are a few clothes and some electronics assembled there

China's military machine is not state of the art, that art is changing rapidly and the West has a clear edge. Any sensitive technology transferred to China will help them advance. Ever heard of Missile defense? These are real worries. Until recently most of China's technology has been imported, and that includes nearly all their space and military technology.

The future is really difficult to predict, simple extrapolations usually don't work. There's no way of knowing how far China will develop and how fast. Right now the Chinese economy in dollar terms is smaller than Germany's, it has a long way to go.

All national space programs have connections with their militaries and the US is no exception, however the US has had a clearly defined civilian space program with little military overlap since 1958 when NASA was founded. .

Technology flows in free markets and free markets thrive in democratic states. China is still not part of the global system, it's developing its own standards and has isolated itself from the global internet. Anyone opposing the government is arrested and imprisoned. Furthermore it has invaded and occupied East Turkmenistan and Tibet for decades and threatens the separate state of Taiwan with war if it dares to declare itself independent. It supported Saddam Hussein and Slobodan Milošević. North Korea and Iran are its close allies and it supports and arms the Sudan military in its genocidal war in Darfur. Why is China so loved and admired for its barbaric behavour and the US despised for liberating the people of Iraq and Afghanistan and protecting the free world? BTW the US also helped free China from Japanese occupation.

Yes, fully automated factories that have lower production costs than human operated ones are in the future.

Gregori · 2008-05-17 08:06:33

Technology flows in free markets and free markets thrive in democratic states.

Bullshit! Nearly all the greatest breakthroughs in technology in the 20th and 21st Century have practically nothing to do with "free markets" or "democracy". They were mostly spin offs of expensive state sponsored programs. The internet, rockets, a cheap affordable car, microchips, GPS, nuclear weapons etc etc etc

Sure, when something useful was discovered the private sector was allowed to sell it for profit.

I seem to remember the US's space program's existence owing a lot to that german V-bomb designer, not free markets.

cIclops · 2008-05-18 01:52:01

The point was a general one about technology not breakthroughs. Free markets allow the fast transfer of technologies between markets and states. Most democracies support free markets even though protectionism is still rife, controls are fast disappearing as globalization speeds up this process to everyone's benefit.

As to your examples:

Yes, ballistic missiles, GPS and nuclear weapons were all the result of government military programs.

The Internet is a collection of technologies, most of which were privately developed. The underlying TCP/IP protocol was developed by government for military networks, but it was just an extension of other network protocols. The real breakthrough happened when the Internet was commercialized and private enterprise constructed its vast infrastructure and provided an enormous number of services.

The breakthrough developments in microchips were done by private industry (namely Fairchild)

Cheap cars were not exactly a "breakthrough" or a technology. The technology was mass production and that was done by the private sector, namely Ford Motor Company.

Gregori · 2008-05-18 05:00:45

That technology can sold in a free market - well thats just obvious!

However the "free market" doesn't necessarily create or advance technology and knowledge. There is no magical connection between them. Sometimes consumer demand can result in the creation of innovative technology but thats hardly the full picture.

Generally there has always been a good degree of market interference by goverments. The primary consumers for Integrated Circuits were US millitary and space programs. The price of IC's was well too high, but mass production was possible thanks to goverment demand for putting them in missiles/apollo - which gradually brought down the price.

The Volkswagen wasn't brought about by the "free market" in Nazi Germany, but by a goverment plan to make a family car affordable etc etc

Same deally with the rocket technology that put people on the moon. That wasn't develop in a "Free Market", but was a spin off of weapons designed for Germany.

Even extremely opressive states can create very advance technology (which is why everybody is going apeshit over Iran) and this wasteful spending can create markets for useful spin offs.

Stormrage · 2008-05-24 13:07:53

How did this go from India-US cooperation to which is weaker USA or China?

Funny thing is that the European Union is acting more like a country every single year and at this moment it's the most economically powerful country in the world. At this moment the Western nations are well developed while the Eastern and Central countries are catching up so it's going to get more and more powerful. Now If only France and UK would behave themselves.

Anyway to stick to the topic. Every single time different countries cooperate in Space it's a good thing. Not because some people like Tom thinks it's a FU at China. It's good because it helps to transfer technology and future peace in space. The last thing we need is a new Space Race with arbitrary goals that are only there for political goals rather then getting and keeping humans in space.

cIclops · 2008-05-24 14:44:19

Sure, cooperation and trade between free independent democratic states is usually a very good thing. Space technology has direct military uses, and it's not usually a good thing to transfer military technology to your adversaries.

In an ideal world, open transfer and trade of all technologies would definitely be a good thing, but we don't live in an ideal world.

Gregori · 2008-05-24 18:30:36

Sure, cooperation and trade between free independent democratic states is usually a very good thing. Space technology has direct military uses, and it's not usually a good thing to transfer military technology to your adversaries.
In an ideal world, open transfer and trade of all technologies would definitely be a good thing, but we don't live in an ideal world.

what is china going to do with it? they can't really attack the US, they would be h-bombed to shit if they did.

what they don't get from the US/Russia/Europe to develop space technology, they will inevitably develop themselves. Unlike the cold war countries, China has the benefit of all the advances since to help it catch up. The probe they sent to the moon was pretty sophisticated compared to what US/Russia were doing 40 years ago.

Even if there is to be no transfer of sensitive technology, cooperation could still take place.

cIclops · 2008-05-25 02:17:18

China has other adversaries besides the US, democratic Taiwan and India and potentially Japan and South Korea for example - all of them US allies of varying degree. China is attempting to extend its territory southwards by confronting Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam over the Spratly Islands. If China has to develop everything internally, it will slow them down and they won't be be able to match western power.

Not much news or information about Chang'e - CNSA are not open about their space program at all.

Gregori · 2008-05-25 07:26:42

China has other adversaries besides the US, democratic Taiwan and India and potentially Japan and South Korea for example - all of them US allies of varying degree. China is attempting to extend its territory southwards by confronting Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam over the Spratly Islands. If China has to develop everything internally, it will slow them down and they won't be be able to match western power.
Not much news or information about Chang'e - CNSA are not open about their space program at all.

They will eventually catch up, even if they have to do most of it internally. Because of all the developments in modern technology, they can catch up a lot faster compared to what Russia and USA had to do to get where they are in space.

"western power" has pretty much slowed down in manned space flight. US got to the Moon in the 60's and haven't done much since. There hasn't bee n that much advancement. Its all been space stations and fecking around in LEO. The only significant things that have been really advanced are purely science based missions (which I'd admire and support).

China could easily catch up with everybody else in manned space flight. They've already flown some Taikonauts by themselves. they don't need very much more before they can build a small space station or put someone on the Moon.

To add to that, their most likely ally is going to be Russia, which has loads of experience in space technology. Russia and China are already planning on co-operation. Russia and Europe also are also likely to co-operate in space technology. The political landscape in two decades could look very very different to today.

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#51 2008-05-15 07:57:30

Re: President of India calls for joint - US/Indian habitat on Mars by 2050

#52 2008-05-15 22:20:52

Re: President of India calls for joint - US/Indian habitat on Mars by 2050

#53 2008-05-16 09:02:28

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#54 2008-05-16 13:48:46

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#55 2008-05-17 08:06:33

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#56 2008-05-18 01:52:01

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#57 2008-05-18 05:00:45

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#58 2008-05-24 13:07:53

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#59 2008-05-24 14:44:19

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