NASA Exploration Roadmaps

cIclops · 2007-10-11 10:52:37

Yeah you are right Tom, as soon as there are AIs with more power than the human brain we can shut down the human race. They can mass produce themselves and explore the universe. We may as well shut down NASA now and every other research and development program and put the whole budget into speeding up AI. With billions of AIs they will be able to solve every problem. Space travel with be so easy for them, within days they will have built bases on Mars and across the solar system, a few weeks later they will have constructed ships that can travel across the galaxy. Yeah right.

See how successful the Japanese were when they started in 1982 with their epoch-making 5th generation AI project, or what happened to the millions spent on AI projects to translate languages. It takes far more than a fast cpu.

Tom Kalbfus · 2007-10-11 12:02:37

Yeah you are right Tom, as soon as there are AIs with more power than the human brain we can shut down the human race. They can mass produce themselves and explore the universe. We may as well shut down NASA now and every other research and development program and put the whole budget into speeding up AI. With billions of AIs they will be able to solve every problem. Space travel with be so easy for them, within days they will have built bases on Mars and across the solar system, a few weeks later they will have constructed ships that can travel across the galaxy. Yeah right.
See how successful the Japanese were when they started in 1982 with their epoch-making 5th generation AI project, or what happened to the millions spent on AI projects to translate languages. It takes far more than a fast cpu.

That is the nature of exponential growth. I'm simply conveying what I've read in Ray Kurzweil's The Singularity is Near
Whether his conclusions are correct I don't know, but computer technology seems to be the only technology that's moving these days, and they are getting better and faster exponentially, it seems that is this continues, they'll surpass humans, and there is no reason for it not to continue, nor is there reason for their capacity to stop short of humans.

I know this is an incredible statement for computers have not taken over the Universe before, but I think because of the nature of the phenominon, it can only happen once, and so therefore has not happened before. NASA's plans act as if the 21st century is going to be the static century. Maybe technological advancement in most places has ground to a halt due to limits on human intelligence, so perhaps when computers exceed human mental capacities, this will break the technological logjam and technology will move forward once again. I've seen rocket technology barely crawl ahead. After the first 12 years of the Space Age, everything just flatlined, we stopped going to the Moon. It seems there is unexpected sudden resistance to increased funding for space travel in high places, you have NASA Administrators who seemingly "want" to be beaten by the Chinese, you have Presidents who have no national pride. It seems we have no trouble dropping a few hundred billion dollars for a foreign war involving other people, Congressmen want to waste a further hundred billion on porkbarrel projects, but mention space travel to them, and they suddenly get stingy and start worrying about balancing the budget. NASA's Budget is a small item, and if we returned to the Moon in a hurry, it would still be a small item, yet Congress is so very "cost conscious" when it comes to space travel, yet they are so eager to find excuses to raise your taxes and spend it on anything but space exploration. I know its not about cost, so what is it?

Have some space aliens given George Bush a talking to and convinced him that we shouldn't hurry to Mars? It seems everyone who gets into power develops a sudden adversion to space travel, even environmentalists talk as if the rest of the Universe does not exist, and some say that "entropy will get us all."

I think times are more interesting on this side of the singularity, it we wait till the singularity passes us, then nothing will be a challenge anymore.

I know the 21st century looks just like the 20th century, everything looks so familiar, but that is an illusion, We have never been to this time before, to this day and hour. What's ahead is unknown, and we shouldn't be reassured that because things look familiar, they'll stay that way.

Computer technology is inexorably getting better, and things are not changing because they have not surpassed humans yet, but once they do, the rules change, computers do the innovating and inventing from that point on. There is nothing magical about the human brain, and its only a matter of time before technology duplicate it, and I don't think its alot of time. Two years in fact before the first human-level supercomputers, they'll shoot right past lower mammals and surpass humans in short order, that is simply a characteristic of this technology expansion, and once it does this, it will drive other technologies through the roof also. Thinking machines are the key to everything else. Just try to ignore computers, the next ten years will prove interesting.

publiusr · 2007-11-09 14:32:56

Marginal cost of Ares V estimated between $200-300 million
Wow, that's great, would mean 2000 - 3000$/kg into LEO if Ares V has about 100 ton lift capacity. I hope they can pull this off.

Great stuff.

publiusr · 2007-11-09 14:38:35

Note the beautiful, magical word that has been anathema for so long: "reserve." Griffin is the right man for the job.

Agreed.

cIclops · 2008-01-14 10:45:27

Exploration roadmap from Constellation Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement - 10 Jan 2008

Several differences with previous roadmap dated 20 Sep 2007

o Mars Expedition design starting 2022
o Lunar Outpost buildup now starting earlier in 2018
o 1st human Orion flight (sic) flight added in middle 2014
o 1st (sic) human lunar landing added in middle 2019

cIclops · 2008-02-05 03:40:45

From Presentation by Dr. Alan Stern, Science Mission Directorate (723 Kb PDF) - 4 Feb 2008

cIclops · 2008-02-28 06:35:20

Latest colorful exploration roadmap from the 3rd Space Exploration Conference - 26 Feb 2008

Lots of presentations available - check them fully out!

cIclops · 2008-03-03 04:24:58

From: Lunar Science program (PDF 2MB) - 27 Feb 2008

Note starts for two new robotic missions:
o Lunar Atmosphere & Dust Explorere (LADEE)
o International Lunar Network (ILN) - a network of surface stations

cIclops · 2008-03-16 07:57:23

A look at NASA's future beyond the shuttle - 15 Mar 2008

By ERIC BERGER
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle
Last week, NASA Administrator Michael Griffin sat down with the Houston Chronicle's editorial board and science writer Eric Berger. The NASA chief discussed the space agency's plans for the future as well as his views on competition with other spacefaring nations.
Q: The shuttle will stop flying in 2010 so NASA can spend more money on the Constellation program, the next generation of spacecraft. If money were not a concern, would it be safe to continue flying the shuttle until 2015, when the first new vehicles should be ready?
A: If money was taken off the table, I would still advocate that we retire in 2010 or thereabouts. Now I'm an engineer, so there's not a cliff you fall off of at a certain date. If you have an orbiter in good shape and somebody says, 'Can that orbiter do one or two more flights?' The answer is, of course. But the way people get into trouble is when you say, 'I can do one more,' and you say that over and over. Pretty soon, you're three or four years down the line, and then something goes wrong. Given that our inherent risk assessment of flying any shuttle mission is about a 1-in-75 fatality risk, if you were to fly 10 more flights, you would have a very substantial risk of losing a crew. I don't want to do that.
Q: Will the ending of the shuttle program in 2010 and the coming gap in U.S. manned spaceflight have any significant effect on Johnson Space Center?
A: To the first order, no. In fact, the impact at JSC seems to be going the other way. If left to themselves, JSC and the associated contractors in the area would add people. In a fixed-budget environment, growth at one center has to come at the expense of others, and that's not our goal. But in a sense, JSC is managing a lot of work at JSC and other centers. So, no, I really don't foresee any damaging effects of retiring the shuttle at JSC, because folks are transitioning into designing and developing the Constellation systems.
Q: Do you think the Chinese will beat us back to the moon?
A: I think probably so. It's not something that one can state as a certainty, but they are constructing a very well-crafted space program. They are doing things on a number of fronts — economic, political, military — that seem to have the intent of establishing China as a strategic power in the world.
(more)

Michael Bloxham · 2008-03-17 02:13:29

Concerning that last comment; is Griffin just trying to scare the US into speeding the Lunar program (or perhaps hoping for re-focus towards Mars), or does he truly believe that China will beat the US?

cIclops · 2008-03-17 04:18:11

Griffin made a similar but less definite statement last year after his visit to China. It appeared to be a straightforward assessment of Chinese capabilities. In his blunt way of speaking he's saying this may well happen, so be prepared to deal with it.

cIclops · 2008-03-17 04:53:25

To Explore Strange New Worlds (PDF) - 10 Mar 2008 - Mike Griffin's speech at LPSC 2008

Our endeavor is spaceflight in all its many forms, and the world will see and will notice whether we are first, or not first. We must get it right. Space exploration is the grandest expression of human imagination of which I can conceive, a journey which will never end, as we explore strange new worlds and boldly go where no one has gone before.

cIclops · 2008-03-27 12:32:16

From Science Mission Directorate Update (PDF 5MB) - 26 Feb 2008

cIclops · 2008-04-15 03:25:24

Interview with Mike Griffin (PDF 3MB) - page 6 - February 2008

Question: What is the probability of success for our ambitious work on Moon, Mars and Beyond with a constant budget from year to year?
Answer: We are not that far along. For now, the focus is 6 crew members in orbit in the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV). Then ARES V, then the Moon. For now, it’s a constant budget and on to Mars. I think we can get there in the mid-2030’s. For me, the Moon comes first. This is the correct order. I don’t have a success probability.

Space Exploration: What's it Worth? - video 26 mins - Interview with Mike Griffin - 19 Mar 2008

It is as noble a goal, in my view, to expand the range of human presence, as the goal of scientific discovery - it's just not the same goal.

SpaceNut · 2016-02-14 20:20:46

nothing to fix

Posting as this is a budget topic for 2006 Vision for exploration....

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-06-06 18:30:59

The Vision for Space Exploration, announced in January 2004 by President George Bush jnr, was seen as a response to the Columbia disaster, his 'Vision' already seen cuts during his Presidency. With a costly War in Iraq cancellations started to come in 2005, 2006, 2007 TPF, LISA and NASA science missions victims of budget cuts. Planetary Society Charged the Administration with Blurring its Vision for Space Exploration. http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=18944
Project Prometheus cancelled 2005 another mission Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter 2005 hit by budget cuts and cut down.
During the Obama Admin workers were affected by the cancellation of the Space Shuttle program and Constellation program. Gravity and Extreme Magnetism Small Explorer (GEMS or SMEX-13) mission was a NASA space observatory mission, mission costs were capped at US$105 million (in Fiscal Year 2008 dollars), excluding the launch vehicle, but an independent confirmation review board at NASA claimed it would grow to an estimated US$150 million, leading to cancellation of the mission.
The Obama Admin endorsed the goal of sending human missions to the Moon by 2020, as a precursor in an orderly progression to missions to more distant destinations, including Mars.

https://web.archive.org/web/20081028022 … _FINAL.pdf

Robert Zubrin said
"Under the Obama plan, NASA will spend $100 billion on human spaceflight over the next 10 years in order to accomplish nothing"
"Obama called for sending a crew to a near Earth asteroid by 2025. ... Had Obama not canceled the Ares V, we could have used it to perform an asteroid mission by 2016. But the President, while calling for such a flight, actually is terminating the programs that would make it possible."
http://www.marssociety.org/portal/obama … to-launch/

Obama administration cut NASA's planetary-sciences budget by 20 percent in 2013, as part of a restructuring plan, contrary to the recommendations of the National Research Council
http://www.space.com/24157-obama-legacy … ation.html

SpaceX Mars City: Why, when, and how Elon Musk wants to build his ambitious plan

https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spac … city-codex

Musk estimated in 2019 that it would take around one million tons of cargo to build a self-sustaining city on Mars. Assuming it costs $100,000 per ton to send cargo to Mars with the upcoming Starship, that would put a Mars city’s price at around $100 billion. At the high end, Musk estimates it could cost around $10 trillion.

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#126 2007-10-11 10:52:37

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#127 2007-10-11 12:02:37

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#128 2007-11-09 14:32:56

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#129 2007-11-09 14:38:35

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#130 2008-01-14 10:45:27

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#131 2008-02-05 03:40:45

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#132 2008-02-28 06:35:20

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#133 2008-03-03 04:24:58

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#134 2008-03-16 07:57:23

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#135 2008-03-17 02:13:29

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#136 2008-03-17 04:18:11

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#137 2008-03-17 04:53:25

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#138 2008-03-27 12:32:16

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#139 2008-04-15 03:25:24

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#140 2016-02-14 20:20:46

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

#141 2022-06-06 18:30:59

Re: NASA Exploration Roadmaps

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