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Edit discusion branched from the original 22019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases
Of Terraformer' for earth topic
Elsewhere in this forum, I have tried to make the point that Phobos is a reasonable site for a quarantine station for travelers coming to Mars. I was happy to see another forum member provide support for the idea of using Phobos as a way station for Marsbound travellers recently, although that person added Deimos as well, which I had not considered.
Now, with this example of a health crisis that started from a single market in China, we are seeing once again why a strict policy of quarantine will surely become vital for the security of the Mars settlement, and ALL off-Earth settlements.
The popular Star Trek vision that people will just mix up without careful testing for contamination is entertaining, but not very realistic.
A recent story set on Mars in Analog very effectively brought that point into view, so I know that a small subset of writers are thinking about it.
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The Wuhan Flu raises the question of the Earth-Mars disease relationship.
Should Mars try and protect itself from infection, monitoring newcomers for weeks before letting them circulate in the settlement. Would that in the long term make Mars more vulnerable to infection?
Disease risk is something that needs serious attention re Mars colonisation. One of the most dangerous situations might be where we allow people on Mars to develop sluggish immune systems, which then cannot defend against a new virus from Earth. The colony could be like Native American communities suddenly exposed to virulent European diseases. As many as 90% of the population could die or be incapacitated.
Last edited by louis (2020-01-25 11:09:07)
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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I doubt we'll need a quarantine station for Mars. Even with torchships, it will still take several days to get there from here. With month long trips, any disease will show up en route.
As far as this current infection is concerned, hybridisation with the closely related MERS would be a nightmare. Imagine 30% mortality rate combined with the infectiousness of this virus.
Even without that, the estimated 3% mortality rate is with intensive care for severe cases. A lot of countries won't be able to provide that. If this virus makes its way to Southern Africa, perhaps from Chinese workers heading back there on Monday, a lot of people could die.
I bought a mask just in case. Since we have a lot of work to do on this house, it won't be a waste even if this ends up a nothing burger, and it's only £16. The cheaper ones have sold out, or will take weeks to arrive. It would be worth buying, if you haven't already.
"I'm gonna die surrounded by the biggest idiots in the galaxy." - If this forum was a Mars Colony
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Thanks to Louis, SpaceNut and Terraformer for interesting and thoughtful additions to the discussion.
We have plenty of time to think through how to manage disease on a new location of humans away from Earth.
Louis' point about the sluggish immune system is a VERY good one .... I would add that most of the South American (or a significant portion for sure) was wiped out by the same European diseases that struck the North American native population so hard.
There is at least one book on the market, setting forth the influence of disease in the successful advance of European culture into Africa, as another example.
I think the answer is at hand, or ** almost ** at hand ...
It was described in detail in a long novellette published in Analog in recent years ... The theme was set up by the separation of two groups of humans who landed on a planet after a ship failure of some kind. Half decided to create a secure environment, and they built a walled city that allowed them to thrive so long as they took great care when travelling out of doors.
The other half went with a genetic modification concept, primarily based upon careful introduction of pathogens from the environment into the human body, so that the body had time to develop defenses. Those defenses were then introduced to the rest of the population through vaccination, pretty much as enlightened cultures do now. The story reached a peak moment when the unprotected humans tried to take something of value from the protected set.
Taking Louis' warning and the Analog story as a matched pair, I expect that the Mars settlement will necessarily be aligned toward high level medical awareness and appropriate action by EVERY resident.
(th)
Last edited by tahanson43206 (2020-01-25 10:19:56)
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One only needs to look at whom it kills as its not always the weak and sickly as some of the most strongest of diseases kill those that appear quite strong. This one appears to be able to travel via air as well as from human to human at this time and that is a problem.
The traveling to mars will only need quarantine areas on the ship and a good recirculating air system that treats all air that is processed for co2 build up. This is akin to submarine use as we spend considerable months all shut up with a crew and its going to be that way for a trip to mars.
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For SpaceNut re #12
Thanks for the reminder of the care that the US Navy takes to insure the health of its crews, and I'm confident that is true for all vessels, with (as you noted) special care for submarines.
However, I think there is something about your assumption as posted in #12 that is worth revisiting.
If you are waiting on Mars for the next inbound ship, you are dependent upon the good will and professional conduct of the crew, and the cooperation of the passengers to insure there are no pathogens arriving on the vessel.
I think this optimism is not justified, and hope you will expand on your thoughts a bit.
You may well be right. I'm doubtful, but open to being convinced.
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General health exams and blood work would be admisistered during the journey, temperatures would be taken when anyone gets the sniffles. The close quarters of the ship would cause a stepped up suvailance of personnel for that reason as you can not have the entire crew go down.
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For SpaceNut re #14
Thanks for continuing this discussion of vetting arrivals at Mars.
Why do you trust personnel on board an arriving vessel?
You are (in this scenario) Chief Border Patrol Officer for Mars.
You serve a board of officials appointed by the people of Mars, to protect them from human error or deliberate harmful intent.
Your trust seems (to me at least) misplaced.
I did a quick check of US Border Patrol web sites, and found a range of policies, from simple reporting of arrivals by individual as your example suggests, to more intrusive checks of arriving vehicles and passengers.
Part of the problem for the US would appear to be the sheer size of the border in a two dimensional sense, and the even greater extent of the three dimensional aspect. In the case of Mars, you'll know months in advance when a vessel is due to arrive.
I would consider it prudent to ask any arriving vessel to check in at Phobos, and to subject itself to a rigorous inspection to insure that the manifest matches the reality in every respect, and THAT is presuming the manifest itself is acceptable.
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Last edited by tahanson43206 (2020-01-25 18:42:20)
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A vehicle that lands on mars must have its passengers exit its ship in space suits and enter in to the habitats via a processing terminal entry point. Each passenger goes in to a seperate decontamination chamber space or room where the space suit is removed and a wait period is executed for some isolation of the crew that just arrived. Medical personel would do the check while there of vitals and blood work before they can enter the colony. This would make the second or third testing of the colonist that left earth over a very extended period of months. All of which works fine for mars.
Now for the border issue which we are really off the topic but its one where vehicles are not always used so no plan you have for intercept will work for those crossing as shear man power and barriers are not enough to detect as there is the water and underground access which goes undetected....
Airport of crewed ocean ships can use the about mars format with a bit of success but its up to those to detect problems and not trust.
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But is this the best policy for Mars? If we protect Mars from every new virus or other pathogen from Earth, surely Aresians' immune systems are going to become sluggish and weak...then, if by some mischance, a new virus does get through the contamination "wall" surely it could be devastating to the colony. That's my concern.
I'd turn this round and say, let's select Mars pioneers who have strong immune systems and let's not prevent viruses getting to Mars unless they are shown to be new and devastating on Earth.
Also, in order to keep Aresians' immune systems up to speed, we may need to have a programme of deliberate infection with modified pathogens - so we keep their immune systems in trim but without the risk of incapacitating disease.
A vehicle that lands on mars must have its passengers exit its ship in space suits and enter in to the habitats via a processing terminal entry point. Each passenger goes in to a seperate decontamination chamber space or room where the space suit is removed and a wait period is executed for some isolation of the crew that just arrived. Medical personel would do the check while there of vitals and blood work before they can enter the colony. This would make the second or third testing of the colonist that left earth over a very extended period of months. All of which works fine for mars.
Now for the border issue which we are really off the topic but its one where vehicles are not always used so no plan you have for intercept will work for those crossing as shear man power and barriers are not enough to detect as there is the water and underground access which goes undetected....
Airport of crewed ocean ships can use the about mars format with a bit of success but its up to those to detect problems and not trust.
Last edited by louis (2020-01-25 20:30:58)
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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For Louis re #17, and SpaceNut re the topic ...
Your basic idea (to the extent I understand it) sounds quite sensible.
There is still plenty of time for humans thinking about Mars to plan for the issue you raised, of drift of populations so that disease becomes fatal instead of just inconvenient. I'd like to point out that the concern can easily go both ways.
A recent science fiction story in Analog considered the question of some ancient shred of genetic material in Martian soil which turns out to be capable of tying into human DNA. The solution is found on Mars, and everyone after the first victim is immunized. However, at that point, no one can return to Earth.
At this point, there is absolutely NO data to falsify the underlying hypothesis of the story.
I think that it would make perfect sense to elevate the medical profession to a much higher level in the Mars settlement process than it has on Earth, and it is already pretty high in first world countries.
***
SpaceNut .... your expectation of multiple tests and confirmations of crew and cargo for traffic to and from Mars seems reasonable, when I look at how most commerce works on Earth today. If you have a single point of departure, for example, then the checks can be trusted on the receiving end, until they prove they can't.
If you have multiple points of departure, such as from different nations not supervised by an agency that governs all of them, it seems to me unreasonable to place such faith in the ships coming from them.
This would be an argument FOR a consortium of national agencies to cooperate early on to set up rigorous medical testing regimen to be followed by all, and for every outbound vessel, and certainly for ones returning to Earth from elsewhere, as was done for the Moon expeditions.
(th)
Last edited by tahanson43206 (2020-01-25 21:04:35)
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Detect and quarantine will work but that is dependant on exposure to others until detected...
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For SpaceNut re this topic, and the Quarantine Facility at Phobos
For a scenario that was brought up by someone (?Louis) in earlier posts, after a population works through a disease, the survivors have antibodies and are no longer showing symptoms. However, they are carriers of the disease.
In your hypothetical scenario WITHOUT a quarantine facility at Phobos, your ship load of passengers will arrive showing up as perfectly healthy, so you would allow them to enter the Mars population without any checks whatsoever, based only upon the ship's medical statement that everyone is healthy.
Everyone on Mars not out on a field trip would promptly die.
For this reason and many similar ones, I recommend a firm and unyielding policy of quarantine at Phobos for all personnel (or shipments of any kind) coming from Earth (or any other non-Mars point of origin).
(th)
Last edited by tahanson43206 (2020-01-27 09:10:54)
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The laws of propulsion will not be changing anytime soon...So a 6- 8 month journey to mars is not quarantine long enough?
As Coronavirus Fears Intensify, Effectiveness of Quarantines Is Questioned
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For SpaceNut re #23
No, six months is not enough. However, if you'll give me a bit of leeway here, I'll try to put down an answer that might be helpful for high school students who might not yet have read about the impact of embedded disease in Europeans that wiped out millions upon millions of vulnerable populations in North America, South America and Africa, and probably other regions I'm less sure about.
A population which has been exposed to a virulent disease, such as the Black Death, will yield survivors who are now immune to the disease.
They can travel for six months or six years as healthy as can be, because they are now immune.
A reference for anyone interested in learning more about this subject is:
Germs, Genes and Civilization
In Germs, Genes and Civilization, Dr. David Clark tells the story of the microbe-driven epidemics that have repeatedly molded our human destinies. You'll discover how your genes have been shaped through millennia spent battling against infectious diseases.
I have omitted specific sources ... the book is readily available from several vendors.
Every now and then I try to remind forum readers of the online library index maintained by a local non-profit:
worldcat.org
I found 267 citations for copies of the book freely available in public and academic libraries
I note there is an eBook version: How infections spread: Excerpted from Germs, genes & civilization.
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Many latent viral infections will manifest themselves within a period of 3-5 days, and most within 10-14.
Ah a brief history of quarantine
Of course that is why we do vacinations to keep from getting most of these.
Some of the diseases are what are known as long incubation period where the person can show no signs of the illness. Just how many would we find of these disease through blood tests is a good question and of the repeating of it to find those that must stay at a quarantine location such as what you propose for Mars on the moon Phobos.
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I tend to agree with Terraformer on this one. If a disease hasn't shown up after 6 months, what exactly is the quarantine station for? What diseases is it looking for? If its things like herpes or AIDS, why not just screen people before they fly out? It would save a lot of cash.
That's not to say that a Phobos station wouldn't be useful for a lot of other things. In fact Phobos would be an important way station for ships travelling to a from Mars. A huge source of propellant that is most of the way out of the Martian gravity well. You could also use Phobos as a convenient source of materials for Mars orbital manufacturing of things like solar power satellites and ships built to access the asteroid belt.
It would be a truly excellent place for a hotel. The Starships could transfer people from Mars surface to the Stickney Hilton, where they would wait for the mass driver cruise ship that will take on reaction mass and transfer them to Earth orbit. The view of Mars from Stickney crater would be unsurpassed.
Last edited by Calliban (2020-01-27 17:22:10)
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
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My way of thinking is that you must do a test before they go and then a recheck after the journey as the best practice at the terminal location and if we need a bit more time so we do so.
We can not wait years to decades for the symptons to show up....
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For SpaceNut ... thank you for creating this new branch from Terraformer's topic on the coronavirus!
There is an opportunity for someone with medical training and experience to participate in discussion of how best to plan for safe movement of thousands of people from Earth to Mars (or anywhere, for that matter).
The history of how disease has impacted the human population is unfamiliar to many folks. It's an unpleasant subject which only remarkable individuals have whatever it takes to pursue in depth.
Fortunately, there ARE a few individuals alive today who are willing to dedicate themselves to the problem of the never-ending war between living things, and how that war impacts humans from time to time.
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For SpaceNut re topic ....
While Terraformer created a new topic about the latest virus from China, you've created this separate topic for study of the problem of protecting the future residents of Mars from disease which can be (and often is) carried by humans.
In another topic recently you pointed out the risks associated with disease carried in food.
Inspired by your lead here, I decided to order a book about the influence of long-term-stored-disease in the success of Europeans in wiping out competition in other parts of the world.
The book arrived today, and I'm hoping to find time to read and report (concisely) on it in weeks ahead.
Description
Winner of the Pulitzer Prize, Guns, Germs, and Steel is a brilliant work answering the question of why the peoples of certain continents succeeded in invading other continents and conquering or displacing their peoples. This edition includes a new chapter on Japan and all-new illustrations drawn from the television series. Until around 11,000 BC, all peoples were still Stone Age hunter/gatherers.At that point, a great divide occurred in the rates that human societies evolved. In Eurasia, parts of the Americas, and Africa, farming became the prevailing mode of existence when indigenous wild plants and animals were domesticated by prehistoric planters and herders. As Jared Diamond vividly reveals, the very people who gained a head start in producing food would collide with preliterate cultures, shaping the modern world through conquest, displacement, and genocide.The paths that lead from scattered centers of food to broad bands of settlement had a great deal to do with climate and geography. But how did differences in societies arise? Why weren't native Australians, Americans, or Africans the ones to colonize Europe? Diamond dismantles pernicious racial theories tracing societal differences to biological differences. He assembles convincing evidence linking germs to domestication of animals, germs that Eurasians then spread in epidemic proportions in their voyages of discovery. In its sweep, Guns, Germs and Steel encompasses the rise of agriculture, technology, writing, government, and religion, providing a unifying theory of human history as intriguing as the histories of dinosaurs and glaciers.
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Here are the eight of the most common and deadly foodborne pathogens, found to be carried by Poultry, seafood, deli meat, eggs, unpasteurized dairy, rice, fruits and vegetables which the CDC identifies as:
Campylobacter.
Clostridium perfringens.
E. coli.
Listeria monocytogenes.
Norovirus.
Salmonella.
Staphylococcus aureus.
Toxoplasma.
https://morningchores.com/chicken-diseases
Researchers have identified more than 250 foodborne diseases.
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Well this is another difficult area. On Earth, it's pretty much impossible to entirely eradicate these pathogens from the food chain because they are in the environment.
But on Mars? Well, it might well be possible to eradicate them, starting with plants and humans being thoroughly checked before setting off for Mars and being checked on arrival, plus having agriculture take place in very restricted indoor environments. It might be possible to produce even domesticated animals that are disease-free.
However, is that wise? Would a pristine Mars eventually fall victim to one of these pathogens somehow making it to Mars? The chances will increase as the population increases and the sort of people travelling between the two planets have been vetted far less than the original pioneers.
I don't know the answers - but the questions need to be put!
Here are the eight of the most common and deadly foodborne pathogens, found to be carried by Poultry, seafood, deli meat, eggs, unpasteurized dairy, rice, fruits and vegetables which the CDC identifies as:
Campylobacter.
Clostridium perfringens.
E. coli.
Listeria monocytogenes.
Norovirus.
Salmonella.
Staphylococcus aureus.
Toxoplasma.https://morningchores.com/chicken-diseases
Researchers have identified more than 250 foodborne diseases.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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For Louis re #22
Thank you for your thoughtful contribution to this topic.
Whatever solution is arrived at for Mars will certainly apply to ALL other locations away from Earth where humans establish a population
I am inclined to see this situation as requiring a higher level of human leadership than has been the default on Earth.
An approach described in an earlier post in this topic, is to maintain a sophisticated medical technology able to discover new and potentially harmful agents in arriving people, animals or food, and then to inoculate the entire population before admitting the new object/person into the environment.
In response to the specific point you made about SpaceNut's list of food borne pathogens ... It's not clear to me that it is possible to inoculate against these. My understanding is that assuming they are present and cooking food sufficiently to kill them is the best overall policy, in addition to maintaining sterile food handling practices in the kitchen.
The purpose of this topic is to provide decision makers with useful insights that would favor development of automatic quarantine practice for arrivals of shipments of any kind at Phobos.
A famous case in American history is that of Typhoid Mary.
From Google search:
Mary Mallon, also known as Typhoid Mary, was an Irish cook. She was the first person in the United States identified as an asymptomatic carrier of the pathogen associated with typhoid fever. She was presumed to have infected 51 people, three of whom died, over the course of her career as a cook. Wikipedia
Born: September 23, 1869, Cookstown, United Kingdom
Died: November 11, 1938, Riverside Hospital
It also appears that the Novel Coronavirus can travel in humans without showing symptoms, and then erupt in others who come into contact with body fluids containing the virus.
It seems likely to me that the level of medical knowledge, experience and skill, and ability to LEARN will be high in off-Earth populations who persist any length of time.
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Robot sterilization of aircraft may work for spacecraft as well ...
The article below came in via a tech newsletter:
Not only has a robot helped to treat the first reported U.S. case of coronavirus in a Washington state hospital, but now a robot has been introduced to help airlines and federal agencies disinfect airplanes in order to stop the spread of the virus.
The GermFalcon robot by Dimer UVC Innovations was created to improve airplane hygiene using ultraviolet-C (UVC) light to kill viruses, bacteria and other bugs on surfaces and in the air. The robot was designed to navigate the cabin inside an airplane while it exposes surfaces to UVC light.
Dimer said that UVC light is commonly used to disinfect air, water and surfaces in healthcare facilities and can eliminate germs such as coronavirus, influenza and Ebola. The company said UVC kills germs up to 99.9% and works on plastic, metal, leather and fabric.
The coronavirus is known to survive on surfaces for up to 28 days, especially in low-humidity environments such as airplanes. As the outbreak began in China, U.S. airports have stepped up health screenings of passengers at ports of entry including at airports such as LAX, SFO and JFK.
“The threat of coronavirus infecting innocent passengers on an airplane is one we must work to eliminate immediately,” said Elliot Kreitenberg, CEO of Dimer UVC. “This is a dangerous virus that has already taken lives. GermFalcon is a fast and effective response to this threat, and we are pleased to offer it at no expense to contribute to emergency response efforts at LAX, SFO, and JFK airports during this crisis.”
To contact the author of this article, email peter.brown@ieeeglobalspec.com
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Not having disease doesn't mean not having an immune system. If everything going to Mars is sterilised (and given the importance of gut bacteria, many of which are good in the gut and bad elsewhere in the body), the immune system will turn on the body in search of something to fight. Having a Martian population full of allergies and auto-immune diseases is unlikely to be a net improvement.
"I'm gonna die surrounded by the biggest idiots in the galaxy." - If this forum was a Mars Colony
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