Huricane Season 2018

SpaceNut · 2018-09-03 11:57:20

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, 2018, and will end on November 30, 2018.

Its been quite so far but that is about to change with Tropical Storm Gordon

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Tropical storm Gordon takes aim at Gulf Coast

Gordon, is west of Key Largo in the Florida Keys and will pick up energy from the warm gulf waters as it heads north westerly.

SpaceNut · 2018-09-08 21:52:28

Next up is Tropical Storm Florence expected to strengthen into hurricane, threaten East Coast Tropical Storm Florence is expected strengthen into a hurricane by the end of Saturday and to approach the southeastern U.S. coast Thursday.

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There is another model saying that it could be more northernly. The good news is that all those that could be affected have declared a state of emergency.

SpaceNut · 2018-09-12 20:10:30

JoshNH4H wrote:

A follow-up to that, with Hurricane Florence on my mind: Elections are a bit like hurricanes. Both are major news events and both are forecasted by groups of people who build models based on data. Despite many years of expertise and advanced models, weather cannot be predicted with certainty. Part of this is due to the difficulty of measurement (weather models are more accurate when you have more and more granular information about the state of Earth's atmosphere across the surface of the planet, just as elections forecasts are more accurate when there are more public polls), but there is an inherent uncertainty to forecasts due to the unpredictable and chaotic nature of reality. Consider the following map:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics … d_wind.png
The National Weather Service currently predicts that the hurricane is most likely to strike near a particular part of coastline in North Carolina, and most of the forecasts do have it making landfall somewhere on the NC coastline. Should the hurricane make landfall in South Carolina instead, we won't say that the NWS has failed. We won't say we're never trusting them again and hurricane forecasting is worthless. We wouldn't say we "don't put much faith in anyone's [weather] data". Instead, we'll recognize that weather forecasting is hard and inherently imperfect, but that we're still much better off for having it. The hurricane is currently forecast to make landfall as a Category 4 hurricane, but that doesn't mean it can't make landfall as a Category 5 or a Category 2. By the way, if anyone here is in its path I hope you stay safe.
All the major news networks, of course, will be spinning nearly-worthless, hyperbolic garbage from now until the hurricane peters itself out as a rainstorm over West Virginia. Consider, by comparison to the above, the following dumpster fire from CNN:
https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/ … ge-169.jpg
This map is not intended to inform you, it's intended to scare you. By using a dozen different models and displaying the expected path from each (instead of combining them into a single probabilistic forecast), CNN has made the hurricane seem to threaten more people than it actually does. No doubt they will spend the most time discussing the path with the most potential for damage. And while they will speak constantly of forecasts and meteorology and perhaps even have a few meteorologists on the show, someone who gets all of their information from CNN will have learned nothing.

SpaceNut · 2018-09-12 20:11:26

kbd512 wrote:

Josh,
As someone who works on statistical analysis / forecasting software that blends its output, I actually like seeing the results of the variant models before blending. The software uses a Bayesian-Markov model, which is just a fancy way of saying it's a tunable matrix solve. It weights more recent data more heavily than more distantly historical data, but it also has lots of buttons to push and dials to adjust. The software doesn't provide intermediate output and is a black box, making tuning exercises a bit of trial and error, even with some prior knowledge of how it works. That's not entirely true, but then you'd have to load it back into the database yourself or use another program (Excel) to graph it for review and I'm not that motivated unless I have to be. I'd like to know if the exact same data was fed into the various models used, along with any model parameter changes.

elderflower wrote:

The data is probably the same, based as it is on measurements from a limited array of instruments and alimited set of historical observations. Its the correction factors and weighting that is given to each by the models that lead to the different predictions.
I note that all the models predict that the Hurricane will carefully avoid Washington DC. We wouldn't want to upset the President now, would we?

I have family that is in the path of this one but they have seen a few of them so they are ready....

Excel works great for displaying stuff like this....and I agree that slight variation in values and differences in the time frame of measured numbers fed into the software.

kbd512 · 2018-09-12 21:58:53

Before you leave the house, make sure you take the following:

1. important documents (drivers licenses or passports, health insurance cards, social security cards, birth certificates, real estate titles, marriage certificates, etc)

* legally speaking, no docs means "doesn't exist"

2. prescription medications, especially if you're dependent on Insulin or heart medications

* also take Benadryl, Tylenol or Ibuprofen, and Imodium

3. cash

* credit cards need the internet to work, the internet is electrical, and electrical things don't work underwater or without electricity

4. plenty of drinking water (you'll be shocked at how quickly you go through this)

* if you have a bacteria / virus water filter for hiking / camping, then bring it
* you're living out of a car for at least a day and maybe two or more if you don't have money for a hotel, which is why the more durable soda bottles and 5 gallon jugs work better than individual water bottles

5. non / less perishable food items (and food for your cat or dog if you have one)

* this means food that doesn't require refrigeration or heating to eat
* canned food (soups, pork 'n beans, vegetables), trail mix / dried fruits and nuts, jerky, bread or crackers is fine
* don't forget a spoon and fork
* contrary to popular belief, you will still live if you don't have a beer with your meal, so leave the booze at home

6. swimming trunks, a couple changes of clothes, a good rain jacket, and a good hat

* you may go swimming unintentionally, so a synthetic athletic shirt or sports bra, swimming trunks, and a pair of crocs
* it does get cold enough to become hypothermic when you're soaking wet and the wind is blowing, even in summer, and that's why you need a light windbreaker / jacket

7. a pair of durable footwear that won't be ruined if it gets wet and muddy (crocs, sneakers, or boots) and at least 3 pairs of good socks (synthetic or wool)

* 100% cotton is really uncomfortable after it gets wet, hot or cold, but cotton socks are still better than no socks

8. toilet paper, soap, toothbrush and toothpaste, and a few towels to dry off

* pack TP in two or three plastic shopping bags to keep it dry
* liquid soap works best
* we used wash cloths instead of towels because they're smaller and lighter- when it gets soaked you just wring it out and continue drying off

9. feminine hygiene products

* the pads also make good bandages, if required

10. Insect repellant, duct tape, zip ties, clean rags, flashlights, spare batteries, and a few hand tools (for the car) if you have them

Packing:

Apart from the water, all of that stuff should fit into a duffle bag or a trash bag. Backpacks are even better, but certainly not required. Think of a hurricane as an unplanned and unpleasant 3 day camping trip. If you have waterproof maps and a compass and some practice using them, those tend to always work. If all you have is a cell phone for navigation, then you'd better make sure you have a way to keep it charged, attached to your body, and dry if it's not waterproof.

Road Trip Prep:

Make sure your vehicle's tires are aired up, you have a full tank of gas, enough oil, coolant, transmission fluid, and power steering fluid before you leave. If you have a tire pressure gauge, an air pump, a tire repair kit or a spare tire, jumper cables, and a pocket knife, make sure you take those things with you as well because you just might need them.

for those who have never taken care of a car before...

* tire pressure is found on the inside of the driver's door jamb
* oil level above the fill line on the dip stick (the correct grade of oil and gas to use in your car is found in the owner's manual)
* clean water is the only coolant you really need in an emergency, but radiator fluid is still best to prevent corrosion
* tire / air pump needs to be the kind you use with your hands, not the electrical kind, unless that's all you have

If you already know all of these things, then great. You're all set. I'm constantly amazed at how many people don't know them, forget them, or ignore them. That's why I posted this here... Just in case we have forum members or readers who are in or near the area and thinking about evacuating to higher ground. We've been through a couple of hurricanes and we like to take road / camping trips. This is how our family does it and it works well for us.

elderflower · 2018-09-13 05:27:19

WD40 and a can opener.
Also a plastic tarp with eyelets and several metres of strong cord. Not much good in strong winds but really handy if its raining hard.

louis · 2018-09-13 06:12:43

I survived a Catergory 5 hurricane...an interesting experience. It's the after party that sucks.

SpaceNut · 2018-09-13 16:33:56

very nice list kbd512 and as you noted the most important in this day and age is the identification documents to which if you are a married woman do not forget your marrage license for the change of name as you noted in item 1. ....

Down now to below a tropical storm.....and dieing fast

SpaceNut · 2018-09-14 18:15:49

Mother nature has decided to stick around dumping plenty of rain and with some storm surge still occuring.

At least 5 deaths linked to ‘powerful, slow and relentless’ storm pummeling North Carolina

Florence downgraded to tropical storm, still poses grave threat...
The deaths include a woman and infant killed in Wilmington, N.C., when a tree fell on their home. With forecasts of up to 40 inches of rain in some areas, authorities warn of “life-threatening storm surges” in North and South Carolina.

SpaceNut · 2018-09-15 10:54:35

We have talked about the flood plain stilks requirements and this will get a test in some of the areas that were rebuilt to that new building code levels. The flood levels will be even higher than what was used to base that new code on.
There are news reports that the casin navy is doing rescues in some of the areas hit.
More than half a million North Carolina residents were without power Friday as Hurricane Florence made landfall, bringing torrential rains, flooding, and high winds. Rescue crews responded to reports of residents trapped by the storm while some 20,000 people moved to temporary shelters.
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/tropi … 018-09-15/

SpaceNut · 2018-09-15 17:46:06

Even after Florence passes, the hazards from the hurricane won't be over: Lingering floodwaters can pose a potential risk to anyone exposed to them.

"The water is not going to be safe, both from chemical and biological contamination. After a disaster, we tend to see a lot of skin infections and skin rashes," said Jeff Schlegelmilch, deputy director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University.

There can also be waterborne illnesses, ranging from inconvenient but fairly harmless gastrointestinal ones, such as norovirus, to rarer, more serious bacteria, such as Vibrio, a potentially deadly micro-organism.

Donna Knutson, deputy director for the national center for environmental health with the CDC, warned that bacteria that cause diarrheal illnesses, in the form of salmonella and E. cola, are likely to be present in floodwaters after the storm. She cautioned people who rely on well water not to assume that their water was safe to drink once they return home after Florence.

Authorities in North Carolina said nearly 814,000 customers were without power. The figure for South Carolina was 170,000.

More than 22,600 people in North Carolina were housed in 150 shelters statewide, including schools, churches and Wake Forest University's basketball arena. In South Carolina there were 7,000 people staying in shelters.

There is always the bad side of people trying to make a buck off from those that have left to save there own lives and instead 4 arrested in North Carolina for break-ins during hurricane

SpaceNut · 2018-09-16 17:49:03

I know that we are poor and hurt from the storm but where are your morals of right and wrong...

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Reporter confronts looters at Family Dollar store where dozens of people carrying items back to the public housing community Houston Moore.

not the normal police response?

Wilmington police sent out a statement Saturday afternoon that they were told by management of the Family Dollar to stand down after receiving reports of looting at the store.

kbd512 · 2018-09-16 18:32:41

Why can't we have proper looters with pants that aren't falling off their butts and without so much blubber on them that they can barely walk?

louis · 2018-09-16 18:54:19

Looting isn't what it used to be!

I remember back in the sixties there were looters who could have won the 100 metre dash at a national event.

If you give poor people the opportunity, they will take it..

kbd512 wrote:

Why can't we have proper looters with pants that aren't falling off their butts and without so much blubber on them that they can barely walk?

SpaceNut · 2018-09-16 20:50:38

"We are aware of the looting occurring at the Family Dollar Store at 13th & Greenfield Sts, unfortunately management has asked not to intervene at this time," the department tweeted.
Wilmington Deputy Police Chief Mitch Cunningham said the department spoke to the owner, who then changed his mind.

It appears that Police arrest 5 for looting dollar store after Hurricane Florence

"It's important to take a strong stand against looting," he added. "This community has been through a lot right now and we feel very strongly that looters are exploiting people that are vulnerable at a time like this. We need to take a strong stance. The owner agreed with us and therefore it's under investigation."

Its still just stuff for a Dollar....

SpaceNut · 2018-09-17 19:05:42

Saw an article today about 6 dogs that were trapped in there cage which were heard barking while several were looking to find people to rescue. They were released from the cage that within an hour would have caused them to drown.

Standing proud again to lend a hand to the needy the "Cajun Navy" volunteers help evacuate North Carolina nursing home residents

Florence leaves 'a monumental disaster' in the Carolinas -- with more trouble to come

Even as Florence leaves the Carolinas, the floodwaters and death toll keep rising.
The storm once known as Hurricane Florence has killed 20 people, trapped hundreds more and cut off an entire city. But forecasters say the worst flooding is yet to come.
"This is a monumental disaster for our state," North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said Monday. "This is an epic storm that is still continuing because the rivers are still rising."
Residential streets have turned into rivers. Parts of freeways -- dotted with rescue boats -- have morphed into free-flowing waterways.

SpaceNut · 2018-09-18 21:22:26

Roaring in like a Lion before falling through like a Lamb but it was the underestimating of the Rain damage that has left many on there new city Island call Willmington...With several Highways now being listed as streams and rivers due to the amount of water in them.

Scientists say hurricane rating system fails to convey danger of deadly rain

Not so much as a peep from FEMA or rescue by the government aid systems....

kbd512 · 2018-09-19 09:02:06

It's nearly always the flooding that kills. The winds rarely injure or kill a significant number of people except when hurricanes achieve tornado-like wind velocities. Those more powerful hurricanes also tend to die quickly upon making landfall.

SpaceNut · 2018-09-19 17:53:36

President Trump visiting Carolinas to survey Hurricane Florence impact visiting eastern North Carolina arriving on Air Force Once at the Marine Corps Air Station in Cherry Point.

Wilmington, residents lined up by the hundreds for free food, water and tarps.

Florence is being blamed for at least 34 deaths in three states.

Touring Storm Damage in the Carolinas, Trump Follows His Own Script

At Temple Baptist Church, he joined volunteers in handing out boxes of hot dogs, peas and applesauce to people in a long line of cars and trucks. Church officials said they had distributed 1,200 lunches the day before.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/florence-stor … d=57931360

SpaceNut · 2018-09-21 16:21:45

Have not seen any stories on the flood waters and the homes that were built on stilks but there is news of Duke Energy Dam Breach that was holding back a large reservoir at a Wilmington power plant Friday, and coal ash from an adjacent dump could be flowing into the nearby Cape Fear River.
Floodwaters from the Cape Fear opened several breaches overnight in the earthen dam at Sutton Lake, a 1,100-acre (445-hectare) reservoir at the power plant. The area received more than 30 inches (75 centimeters) of rain from former Hurricane Florence, with the Cape Fear River expected to crest Sunday and remain at flood stage through early next week. Water from the lake then flooded one of three large coal ash dumps lining the lakeshore. The ash left over when coal is burned to generate electricity contains an array of components, including mercury, lead, arsenic and other toxic heavy metals. The inundated basin at the plant contains about 400,000 cubic yards (305,820 cubic meters) of ash.

SpaceNut · 2018-09-23 19:21:18

Still feeling the flood waters from Florence:

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Tropical Storm Kirk forms in Atlantic Ocean

National Hurricane Center said Kirk was 450 miles (724 kilometers) south of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving west at 14 mph (22.5 kph) with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (64 kph). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward from the center up to 35 miles (56 kilometers) to the northwest.

Tropical Storm Kirk named and is gaining momentum as it crosses the Atlantic Ocean

a number of tracking paths also have appeared for this one....

SpaceNut · 2018-09-26 17:20:34

Kirkupdate... Tropical Storm Kirk returns, heads toward Caribbean island

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This storm should swell with the warm waters that it is entering....

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi … shtml?cone

SpaceNut · 2018-10-01 18:31:18

This one is heading towards california Hurricane to tropical storm Rosa could bring flooding to the Southwest desert

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Mid atlantic Tropical Storm Leslie to become hurricane by Tuesday

Early Monday, the 12th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season was moving southwest at 6 mph with sustained winds of 60 mph, an increase of 10 mph from Sunday night. Leslie is about 635 miles east of Bermuda and very far from South Florida — more than 1,600 miles away.

Talk about spaghetti art what a crazy pattern.

This one is for kirk

SpaceNut · 2018-10-07 09:50:23

https://abc13.com/weather/tropical-stor … k/3548191/

Storm Michael could soon hit U.S. Gulf Coast

A tropical storm is likely to develop in the northwestern Caribbean late Sunday and bring storm surges and heavy rainfall to the Gulf Coast by midweek. Tropical Depression Fourteen has developed in the northwest Caribbean. Forecasters said Tropical Storm Michael is likely to form Sunday night and could reach the Gulf coast by Wednesday. A tropical storm warning was in effect for the western tip of Cuba, while a tropical storm watch has been called for the resort region of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche.

https://ktla.com/2018/10/06/hurrican-se … alifornia/

Hurricane Sergio Brings High Surf to Southern California

Forecasters are predicting that Hurricane Sergio will do an about-face in the Pacific Ocean and head back toward Mexico'…

SpaceNut · 2018-10-08 11:56:51

Hurricane Michael: Tropical storm upgraded to Category 1 hurricane

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The forecast indicates Michael may be a Category 3 hurricane -- with winds from 111 to 129 mph -- when it strikes.
"Life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity," the center said.

Its predicted course is towards Michael becomes hurricane, could hit Florida Panhandle as Category 2 storm

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#1 2018-09-03 11:57:20

Huricane Season 2018

#2 2018-09-08 21:52:28

Re: Huricane Season 2018

#3 2018-09-12 20:10:30

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