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In the light of Musk's latest interview, I think there can be no doubt that we now need to move on from debating transit systems to Mars to discussing how you build a colony (or settlement if you prefer that term) on Mars. That has always been my interest so I am very happy with this development. I think there is no doubt now that it will be Space X's BFR that gets humanity to Mars and all other players are at least six years behind and probably more.
So how do we develop the Mars settlement? As Musk says in his interview, we need to recreate the entire Earth industrial infrastructure.
My impression is that Musk has thought a lot more beyond "propellant production" which his Mission architecture obliges him to prioritise.
On that basis, propellant production, presumably off the back of solar energy, will be the first significant activity on Mars. Of course that in turn involves other significant activities: water sourcing, electrolysis and Sabatier processes...
What should follow after that?
My theoretical approach previously has been that there should be an initial period of resource gathering and stockpiling of: iron ore, silica sand, basalt and a range of other raw materials.
The thing that will be in really short supply on Mars in the early years is labour...so don't get into labour-intensive agriculture too early. With the colony under 100 or even 1000 people, it is a lot easier to simply import food from Earth. Initial agriculture should be focussed on providing a limited range of fresh foods that people will value and enjoy...probably salad type vegetables to begin with.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Why would Musk has settlers ready to go to mars when he can not provide training for them to pilot his ships, withstand the duration of the mission trip let alone provide the skills to survive "Clark's Calimity". Those that go first must have the right stuff first to lay down the security blanket of a toehold at a minimum. This key to success is first getting boots that explore, do some science, find the best reserves of ore's and more with setting up the huge fuel factory for the large crews that will be coming. Building is up to the supplies that can be preloaded to the site.
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This is sounding more like an experimental research station, or a pioneer type effort. Much more realistic! Only wish he had been able to do the Red Dragon missions first!
Added in edit: Sounding more and more like Mars Direct!
Last edited by Oldfart1939 (2018-03-11 23:43:54)
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Indeed and all that is realistic, whereas some of his statements before about 100,000s of people moving to Mars en masse didn't sound so realistic. He seems now to be envisioning a research base.
Why would Musk has settlers ready to go to mars when he can not provide training for them to pilot his ships, withstand the duration of the mission trip let alone provide the skills to survive "Clark's Calimity". Those that go first must have the right stuff first to lay down the security blanket of a toehold at a minimum. This key to success is first getting boots that explore, do some science, find the best reserves of ore's and more with setting up the huge fuel factory for the large crews that will be coming. Building is up to the supplies that can be preloaded to the site.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Great that Musk is committing to direct democracy, which should set the colony off on a good start.
"I think most likely the form of government on Mars would be a direct democracy, where people vote directly on issues," he said.
"Everyone votes on every issue and that’s how it goes."
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Then Musk needs to read his Plato; "The Republic" concludes that a direct democracy is the absolute WORST form of government, and the Constitutional Republic the best.
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On the other hand, the initial settlement will have an average IQ far higher than any country on Terra, and that will to some degree persist even with regression to the mean.
On the third hand, we don't run ships as direct democracies. Even the pirate democracies gave their captains the authority they need. I expect space colonies to have elected councils, and unelected boards who can overrule bad decisions by the councils. Which isn't a bad model to run a country on - we sort of have that system in the UK, and Canada's senate isn't elected either.
Use what is abundant and build to last
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While the crew will be very smart they also need to be tested for the pyhscological rigors of confined space use, limited food and more as the drive to mars, landing doing science, exploration, collecting of samples with a return to earth is a very long period of time.
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Yes, for the first pioneers you're probably looking for single people in their early to mid 30s: psychologically stable, physically very fit and robust (not prone to ligament or other injuries), highly educated in science or medicine, with good technical skills (mend anything given a screwdriver) and very much team players.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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As long as exploration lasts we need to look to the organisation of past, successful, long term expeditions such as those of Cook (the earlier ones, not the last!), Amundsen, Shackleton and Zheng He. We no longer need large crews for manpower and dog teams are also made redundant by machines, but many of the issues are not changed as they arise from human nature rather than from the circumstances.
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How are Antarctic bases governed?
There will definitely be a governor, appointed by whoever is bankrolling the project. Maybe they'll hear petitions from the residents, but final decision making rests with them. In time, perhaps they can have an elected council, but the governor will still be able to overrule them (which should be familiar to the CANZUK members of the board).
Use what is abundant and build to last
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I can see the colony operating much like the British Empire/Commonwealth, with a Governor being able to in theory (although perhaps not often in practice, especially as the colony/settlement matures) overrule an elected legislature, especially for a planetary government, and such an arrangement eventually evolving into a Westminster-type thing.
As for municipal government, I was thinking something along the lines of a town meeting like they have in New England, with councilmen/aldermen/selectmen being elected for day-to-day administration and meetings occasionally called for major policy decisions.
The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot live in a cradle forever. -Paraphrased from Tsiolkovsky
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We've already seen elected city councils in America mess up the water supply (Flint). At least in that case they could truck water in, and it's not immediately fatal. Imagine if they'd messed up the air supply... someone needs to have the authority to overrule bad decisions.
Use what is abundant and build to last
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I expect it will be Chief Executive on Mars or some such. I think Musk's comments about direct democracy relate to a little further down the road, and would apply to legislation rather than day to day management. I'm guessing he would have in mind maybe confirmation of laws by direct vote of the people, following discussion in an elected assembly, recall of legislators and executive officers by direct democratic vote etc.
How are Antarctic bases governed?
There will definitely be a governor, appointed by whoever is bankrolling the project. Maybe they'll hear petitions from the residents, but final decision making rests with them. In time, perhaps they can have an elected council, but the governor will still be able to overrule them (which should be familiar to the CANZUK members of the board).
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Unless the person on Mars is respected as the authority for governoring for all actions requiring an ok to do there will be a one person opinion as to what is done and not and that will be the individual making that choice. That personal choice could effect all or just the one depending on what that actions cause and effect are. The team will survive based on the acts of all to work together on mars and does not allow for anything else.
Any authority off world will be largely ignored and will only be used for experience to aid in what ever issue besets the colonist. They will be self governing.
Also briliant young people do not equal aged experienced people as each will have there position and role as defined in the work that must be done.
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