Musk on Mars - interesting.

louis · 2018-03-11 18:12:06

Interesting new interview with Musk...

Seems to be he is changing the narrative from Wild West homestead expansion to Antarctic Base model, at least in the first phase. Glad to hear that as is much more realistic in my view. He ironically accepted v. few people in the audience were putting their hands up to go to Mars.

Timeline...he's optimistic. "We are building the first interplanetary ship now"... BFR flights early next year!!! (Straight up and down).

BFR will reduce the marginal cost hugely.

BFR flight will cost less than original Falcon 1 flight.

Permanent base on Moon and colony on Mars coming.

"Once you get there the opportunity is immense..." Wants entrepreneurs to flourish.

SpaceNut · 2018-03-11 22:31:47

Elon Musk wants to colonize Mars with SpaceX — here's what he said it will be like as one of the first residents

Elon Musk: Mars ship test flights 'next year'

However optimistic the timeline, the BFR’s first test flights would just be a preview of an actual crewed trip to Mars. SpaceX’s most recent plan has humans actually heading to Mars in 2022.
Musk predicts that the first flights of the ship will unleash a flood of energy from other shipbuilders. “Once we have it, we’ll have a sort of point of proof, something that other countries and companies will go and do.” Musk says that he expects those other entities to eventually build interplanetary transport vehicles of their own.
Musk also reiterated that he sees SpaceX’s role as simply creating the pathway to Mars, and that he hopes entrepreneurs will build much of the infrastructure of a future Mars colony, including everything from “iron foundries to pizza joints to nightclubs.” He also speculated that “most likely, the form of government on Mars would be somewhat of a direct democracy,” in which residents would vote directly on particular issues.

louis · 2018-03-12 01:37:20

This is getting a lot of attention across the board:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article … -YEAR.html

BFR flying in 2019! That's beyond exciting!!

It's a shame his interviewers never ask him really interesting questions about how the base will be set up and so on.

Last edited by louis (2018-03-12 01:37:59)

Terraformer · 2018-03-12 11:16:11

How good have Musk's previous predictions been about when stuff will get done? We still haven't seen a crewed Dragon flight. I just hope he gets it built by the time the ISS is decommissioned, so we can launch a new space station in a single piece. Or maybe two pieces docked together, with additional launches to outfit the inside.

Void · 2018-03-12 11:39:51

Louis said:

This is getting a lot of attention across the board:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article … -YEAR.html
BFR flying in 2019! That's beyond exciting!!
It's a shame his interviewers never ask him really interesting questions about how the base will be set up and so on.

What I have gotten as hints from him, is that he intends to setup refueling on Mars, and that might be it. He expects others to build the base. However he and SpaceX frequently revise objectives. I am guessing that if they get the travel method back and fourth set up, they will be tempted to be involved more.

One recent thing I have noticed about the "Boring Company" is the objective is changing from transporting cars, to transporting people through underground tunnels. It is obvious that Elon Musk's every project has a secondary use on Mars.
SpaceX, to get there with BFR, and probably the use of a "Hopping" BFR to jump from place to place on Mars.
Tesla, to provide electrical vehicles both on Earth and Mars I presume.
+ Solar City to provide solar panels.
Hyperloop to provide high speed ground transport.
And I am guessing the Boring Company, to provide underground transport on Mars.

But for now, I expect that SpaceX and Elon Musk, for Mars, will focus almost exclusively on BFR and a refueling method.

I did notice that they have expanded their objectives. The Moon and other places are also mentioned.

If they do set up a refueling station on Mars, I have to wonder if they might be tempted to jump further out to asteroids for mining. They might prefer to do that for profit to help pay for BFR, and might to some extent leave the base building to the people who intend to live there.

Last edited by Void (2018-03-12 11:42:42)

Oldfart1939 · 2018-03-12 12:53:48

To my mind the asteroids for mining are a logical destination, but probably not as any permanent bases. The next "step out" will undoubtedly be the Jovian moons, especially Ganymede and Callisto. Callisto has the least radiation hazards, as well as being most distant from the gravity well. Lower delta g requirements for orbit entry than the others.

This is probably as far as we go with chemical propulsion; need to shift to nuclear thermal from that point.

Last edited by Oldfart1939 (2018-03-12 12:56:32)

SpaceNut · 2018-03-12 17:31:56

While we have used solar for probes to the asteriods and jupiter I do think that any human mission will not be supported by solar at that point and will be nuclear powered.

Refueling is the one thing that stops man in his tracks from exploring beyond LEO and is only accomplished via a landing on a source of materials to turn into fuel for a rocket to use. Once we are mining we need fuel depots for a larger and fast distance of travel to occur. With that couples the higher power requirements as well.

louis · 2018-03-12 17:53:08

Yes, I've noted before that nearly all Musk's ventures can be related to Mars (and they all help fund the mission one way or another). A hyperloop could be v. useful on Mars where efficient air travel is unlikely to be possible.

Void wrote:

Louis said:
This is getting a lot of attention across the board:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article … -YEAR.html
BFR flying in 2019! That's beyond exciting!!
It's a shame his interviewers never ask him really interesting questions about how the base will be set up and so on.
What I have gotten as hints from him, is that he intends to setup refueling on Mars, and that might be it. He expects others to build the base. However he and SpaceX frequently revise objectives. I am guessing that if they get the travel method back and fourth set up, they will be tempted to be involved more.
One recent thing I have noticed about the "Boring Company" is the objective is changing from transporting cars, to transporting people through underground tunnels. It is obvious that Elon Musk's every project has a secondary use on Mars.
SpaceX, to get there with BFR, and probably the use of a "Hopping" BFR to jump from place to place on Mars.
Tesla, to provide electrical vehicles both on Earth and Mars I presume.
+ Solar City to provide solar panels.
Hyperloop to provide high speed ground transport.
And I am guessing the Boring Company, to provide underground transport on Mars.
But for now, I expect that SpaceX and Elon Musk, for Mars, will focus almost exclusively on BFR and a refueling method.
I did notice that they have expanded their objectives. The Moon and other places are also mentioned.
If they do set up a refueling station on Mars, I have to wonder if they might be tempted to jump further out to asteroids for mining. They might prefer to do that for profit to help pay for BFR, and might to some extent leave the base building to the people who intend to live there.

louis · 2018-03-12 19:05:14

I think we can now see the outline of how the colony will develop:

1. Energy generation and propellant production put in place.

2. Exploration base (using a manned, pressurised Rover). Bringing finds back to scientific research base (below) and identifying potential mining locations, including mining for water.

3. Scientific research base.

4. Mining operations beginning at various outposts.

5. Small scale industrial processes and manufacture at dedicated facilities (use of 3D printing).

6. Base for University Research Facility - a sort of Mars MIT perhaps.

7. Mars Media centre - providing media services to various documentary makers etc.

8. Agricultural Facilities - increasingly, Mars is able to feed itself. .

9. More sophisticated industrial activity such as production of PV panels, electric motors, rovers etc.

At this point, Mars will be able to move into the "break out" phase where it can welcome the first permanent settlers.

Oldfart1939 · 2018-03-12 21:18:08

As far as developing the industrial base on Mars, it will be nuclear, and Thorium based. I've seen papers stating that there is a supply of Thorium on Mars.

I pretty much agree with Louis' items 1 through 5; I see item 3 incorporating his item 6. Item 7? Meh! Then I'm again in agreement with items 8 & 9. Item 8 will seemingly go hand in hand with several of the earlier items as a combination with them.

RobertDyck · 2018-03-12 23:47:35

I'm thinking WiFi on Mars. With web servers that mirror major resources like Wikipedia, streaming video, technical papers. Facetime, Skype, and Voip (Voice Over IP), text via WiFi, but no dedicated cell phone carrier. No landline telephone, no cable TV, but with streaming video and download services, why would you need them? Web server mirror for YouTube. Seriously, with a high-end laptop and internet access, what more do you need to produce documentaries? In the 1980s a video tape based camcorder was a big deal; as stated in the movie "Back To the Future Part II", it has a built-in video editing studio. Exact words were "A portable television studio". That's a 1989 vintage camcorder, or 1985 if you want continuity with the first movie. Now we have smart phones that can do all that and more.

The job I had in November required me to get a cell phone. That job ended; I might get work in May, but now I'm stuck with monthly cell phone bills. I'm trying to appreciate it since I have to pay for it. No upfront cost, but $70 the first month then $56.50/month. They wouldn't let me get service for my old flip-phone; it was current when I got it, just before the first iPhone came out. My new phone is an Essential PH-1: Corning Gorilla Glass 5, titanium frame, ceramic back. Display 1312 x 2560 pixels, multi-touch, Snapdragon 835 CPU (Octa-core: 4x2.45GHz & 4x1.9GHz), GPU: Adreno 540, 4GB RAM, 128GB storage, primary camera: 13 Mega-pixel, phase detection & laser autofocus, LED flash, face detection, secondary camera: 8 Mega-pixel, Wi-Fi 802.11 a/b/g/n/ac, dual-band, WiFi Direct, hotspot, Bluetooth, non-removable Lithium-Ion 3040 mAh battery. Sensors: Fingerprint (rear-mounted), accelerometer, gyro, proximity, compass, barometer. GPS and NFC (Near Field Communication). And more!

Damn! Star Trek tricorder didn't have all this! Even TNG/DS9/Voyager tricorders couldn't do all this. I downloaded an app that makes it look like a TNG/DS9/Voyager tricorder; even displays data from real sensors, so it's real! Not really useful, but cool! It's even got "OK Google" voice recognition for internet searches, similar to Siri, Cortana, or Alexa.

So why would we need a building or facility for media support?

louis · 2018-03-13 02:26:35

Yes, some strands will be developing in parallel. I do see the scientific research base as different from the University research institute, the Mars MIT. We currently have a lot of research stations at Antarctica but I don't think we have a permanent university institute. I think there will be interest from prestigious universities to be the first to set up shop on Mars. The prestige of value of being able to say "We are the only University with our own institute on Mars" would be enormous.

Oldfart1939 wrote:

As far as developing the industrial base on Mars, it will be nuclear, and Thorium based. I've seen papers stating that there is a supply of Thorium on Mars.
I pretty much agree with Louis' items 1 through 5; I see item 3 incorporating his item 6. Item 7? Meh! Then I'm again in agreement with items 8 & 9. Item 8 will seemingly go hand in hand with several of the earlier items as a combination with them.

louis · 2018-03-13 02:45:39

I have perhaps overlooked that the real purpose of Space X's satellite internet project is to provide internet on Mars! Duh!! Of course it is!!!

I think a Mars Media Centre will be required for several purposes:

1. To liaise with documentary and other film makers that come to Mars. I am sure someone will want to be the first to make a film drama on Mars. Films often have budgets in the 100s of millions of dollars. A lot of planning will be required, given the film makers will require life support whereever they go and due health and safety assessments will need to be made when they move off base.

2. To store and rent out equipment. High quality filming is not simply a matter of grabbing reasonable-quality images - you need Steady cams, drones, rails, specialist lighting equipment. You need viewing and projection facilities (since directors like to view what they've got in the bag as they go). You will need editing suites.

3. To develop programming for sale back on Earth, including as part of a regular Mars TV, but also to provide a steady stream of news items.

The size of the media centre will depend on what we learn about Mars and what we do on Mars. If we find existing life, then I think there will be the equivalent of a gold rush. If we find evidence of past life, there will be a lot of interest. If it's just rocks, then not so much, but people will I think be interested in specific projects e.g. the ascent of Olympus Mons, exploring Valles Mariensis, reaching the North and South poles on Mars.

I think a set up like you mention could work well in terms of developing a Mars TV service which I have identified as a potential revenue earner. I think if you hooked up with someone like Discovery, National Geographic, Netflix or Amazon, you could develop a big market for such a channel on Earth. There are plenty of people on Earth interested in Mars...with development of the right programming, you could easily garner a regular 10million audience around the planet, which in turn could generate hundreds of millions of pounds in revenue.

RobertDyck wrote:

I'm thinking WiFi on Mars. With web servers that mirror major resources like Wikipedia, streaming video, technical papers. Facetime, Skype, and Voip (Voice Over IP), text via WiFi, but no dedicated cell phone carrier. No landline telephone, no cable TV, but with streaming video and download services, why would you need them? Web server mirror for YouTube. Seriously, with a high-end laptop and internet access, what more do you need to produce documentaries? In the 1980s a video tape based camcorder was a big deal; as stated in the movie "Back To the Future Part II", it has a built-in video editing studio. Exact words were "A portable television studio". That's a 1989 vintage camcorder, or 1985 if you want continuity with the first movie. Now we have smart phones that can do all that and more.
The job I had in November required me to get a cell phone. That job ended; I might get work in May, but now I'm stuck with monthly cell phone bills. I'm trying to appreciate it since I have to pay for it. No upfront cost, but $70 the first month then $56.50/month. They wouldn't let me get service for my old flip-phone; it was current when I got it, just before the first iPhone came out. My new phone is an Essential PH-1: Corning Gorilla Glass 5, titanium frame, ceramic back. Display 1312 x 2560 pixels, multi-touch, Snapdragon 835 CPU (Octa-core: 4x2.45GHz & 4x1.9GHz), GPU: Adreno 540, 4GB RAM, 128GB storage, primary camera: 13 Mega-pixel, phase detection & laser autofocus, LED flash, face detection, secondary camera: 8 Mega-pixel, Wi-Fi 802.11 a/b/g/n/ac, dual-band, WiFi Direct, hotspot, Bluetooth, non-removable Lithium-Ion 3040 mAh battery. Sensors: Fingerprint (rear-mounted), accelerometer, gyro, proximity, compass, barometer. GPS and NFC (Near Field Communication). And more!
Damn! Star Trek tricorder didn't have all this! Even TNG/DS9/Voyager tricorders couldn't do all this. I downloaded an app that makes it look like a TNG/DS9/Voyager tricorder; even displays data from real sensors, so it's real! Not really useful, but cool! It's even got "OK Google" voice recognition for internet searches, similar to Siri, Cortana, or Alexa.
So why would we need a building or facility for media support?

SpaceNut · 2018-03-14 18:54:54

louis wrote:

I think we can now see the outline of how the colony will develop:
1. Energy generation and propellant production put in place.
2. Exploration base (using a manned, pressurised Rover). Bringing finds back to scientific research base (below) and identifying potential mining locations, including mining for water.
3. Scientific research base.
4. Mining operations beginning at various outposts.
5. Small scale industrial processes and manufacture at dedicated facilities (use of 3D printing).
6. Base for University Research Facility - a sort of Mars MIT perhaps.
7. Mars Media centre - providing media services to various documentary makers etc.
8. Agricultural Facilities - increasingly, Mars is able to feed itself. .
9. More sophisticated industrial activity such as production of PV panels, electric motors, rovers etc.
At this point, Mars will be able to move into the "break out" phase where it can welcome the first permanent settlers.

The first steps to the next and with each mission giving different activity and needs will require that a plan gets made for each incremental step that will occur with each missions change of direction of what needs to be done for the next.

Energy needs will be a big changer with each mission once we begin to stay for a manned presence for being permanently filled with activity. That increase will go up even more with building and insitu mining plus processing begins.

Water will be another big game changer with each missions structure as parts of the demand are consumed while others are to be based on the plan for mission and expanding of building for the future.

The agriculture is the big investment for both water and energy to allow for a reducing cost and food quality for the missions as we stay for longer and longer time. This will change over time as the number of personel are increased.

SpaceNut · 2018-04-08 17:38:46

Musk appears to have been using a crystal ball or not as Elon Musk’s plans for colonizing space might have been predicted in a 1940s novel

New Mars Forums

Announcement

#1 2018-03-11 18:12:06

Musk on Mars - interesting.

#2 2018-03-11 22:31:47

Re: Musk on Mars - interesting.

#3 2018-03-12 01:37:20

Re: Musk on Mars - interesting.

#4 2018-03-12 11:16:11

Re: Musk on Mars - interesting.

#5 2018-03-12 11:39:51

Re: Musk on Mars - interesting.

#6 2018-03-12 12:53:48

Re: Musk on Mars - interesting.

#7 2018-03-12 17:31:56

Re: Musk on Mars - interesting.

#8 2018-03-12 17:53:08

Re: Musk on Mars - interesting.

#9 2018-03-12 19:05:14

Re: Musk on Mars - interesting.

#10 2018-03-12 21:18:08

Re: Musk on Mars - interesting.

#11 2018-03-12 23:47:35

Re: Musk on Mars - interesting.

#12 2018-03-13 02:26:35

Re: Musk on Mars - interesting.

#13 2018-03-13 02:45:39

Re: Musk on Mars - interesting.

#14 2018-03-14 18:54:54

Re: Musk on Mars - interesting.

#15 2018-04-08 17:38:46

Re: Musk on Mars - interesting.

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