Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

EdwardHeisler · 2018-03-08 17:02:23

Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China
After almost three decades of cooperation, Roscosmos is now eyeing a future in space with China.
By Anatoly Zak
March 7, 201
Popular Mechanics

Last month Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos State Corporation, began work on a contingency plan that would reshape its future in space exploration. The country could shift its human spaceflight cooperation from the U.S. to China, sources within Roscosmos told Popular Mechanics. One possible scenario includes Roscosmos exiting the International Space Station program early.
Russian experts were instructed to put forward ideas by March 15, including concepts for potential contributions to the planned Chinese space station along with a joint Russian-Chinese plans to send humans to the Moon.

A Historic Relationship

If adopted, the new strategy would mark a historic moment for the Russian space program, which has cooperated with the U.S. for nearly three decades. In 1993, not long after the breakup of the USS, the Russian and American human spaceflight programs (along with Europe, Canada, and Japan) joined together to build the ISS. Lately, though, worsening relations between Moscow and Washington have prompted Roscosmos to seek its own way in space, which could happen before or after the ISS’s current expiration date some time between 2024 and 2028.

For a number of years, the Kremlin considered building an independent program for human spaceflight with plans ranging from a relatively modest space station in the Earth’s orbit to ambitious proposals to build a permanent base on the Moon. But under current economic strains, the Russian government needed an international partner—at least for the time being.

Last summer, Moscow reluctantly agreed to join NASA-led studies of a habitable outpost in orbit around the Moon that would succeed the ISS in mid-2020s. While the near-lunar station remains on the drawing board even as U.S.-Russian relations sour, Roscosmos decided to look at the alternatives. At the end of February, the corporation instructed its strategists to evaluate cooperation with China by supplying Russian hardware for the Chinese space station.

In 2020, Beijing plans to launch the first piece of its new multi-modular outpost similar to the Russian Mir space station. For a number of years, Chinese space officials have been inviting other space powers to contribute to the planned orbital base, but the response was lukewarm due to financial and political concerns. Now there are signs that the situation might be slowly turning to China’s favor. Besides Russia, the European Space Agency, ESA, and Japan are now reportedly re-examining their participation in the Chinese space station project.

A Mismatch Made in Space

In June 2017, Roscosmos head Igor Komarov said that Russia had been invited to participate in the Chinese space station but admitted to a mismatch in plans. Russian engineers first considered the country’s active involvement in the Chinese space station in 2015, but at the time, Roscosmos hoped that China would assemble its outpost in the orbit easily accessible from Baikonur Cosmodrome, which Russia rents from Kazakhstan.

Since then, China informed its potential contributors that the station would be inserted into an orbit inclined between 41 and 43 degrees toward the Equator. Baikonur is situated at a latitude of 46 degrees, which means that the Russian missions heading to the Chinese space station would have to conduct propellant-hungry maneuvers to reduce their orbital inclination.

One partial solution to this orbital mismatch between Russia and China would be the Sea Launch platform. The Russian-owned, California-based floating launch pad offers flexibility in accessing various orbits thanks to its ability to sail to the most convenient launch position. A Russian private company is currently working on reactivating the Sea Launch after a long hiatus.

Sea Launch would currently only launch robotic cargo vehicles and space station modules, leaving open the issue of delivering Russian cosmonauts to the Chinese space station. According to industry sources, Roscosmos was unlikely to agree for its cosmonauts to hitchhike to the station aboard the Chinese Shenzhou vehicles, as China proposed, without having full access to the station with its own passenger spacecraft.

To the Moon and Back
On Saturday, Roskosmos and China National Space Administration, CNSA, signed a memorandum of intentions on possible joint effort in the exploration of the Moon with robotic probes.

Russia considers yet-to-be-launched automated lunar landers as precursors for the future habitable lunar base which would be built in the polar regions of the Moon. China also tabled preliminary plans to send expeditions to the Moon after finishing the assembly of its space station. Russia and China could see their goals in space converge if the U.S. fails to fully draw in one of these two countries into its own orbit.

The latest Russian overtures to China are in very early stages and might not result in any actual change in policy. The U.S. also wouldn't be completely left out in the cold, but would be forced to consider commercial spaceflight options, like SpaceX or United Launch Alliance. But the mere fact that such an option is on the table at Roscosmos’ headquarters is a huge deal, and the final decision, whatever it might be, could have long-running implications for the future of human space flight in all three countries.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/ … cialflowTW

SpaceNut · 2018-03-08 18:11:54

To which if this were to come to pass the modules of the Russian government would be at risk of being taken from the ISS leaving not capable of staying in orbit for the remaining partners. This threat did happen before.

Void · 2018-03-09 14:13:27

This could be good this could be bad.

For one thing if it happens we know that our government will have no choice but to encourage Western and American space efforts.

At the same time if we want the human race to become interplanetary, we do not want either Russia or China to collapse.

Two ways to provoke world conflict would be to make things too rich for Russia and China so that they get bold and adventurous, or to push them up against a wall, so that they would lash out in terror.

Per Peter Zeihan, the USA/North America is supposedly going to be about the only stable spot on the planet in the future, but that we will interact with South America, SE Asia, and selected parts of Europe.

Per Peter Zeihan:
1) China is facing a demographic crisis, and a absolutely incredible debt crisis.
2) Russia is facing a demographic crisis where they will not be able to keep their military staffed properly with personal.
3) Europe is facing demographic problems and debt problems. For instance he claims Italy has proportionally 80 times the non-preforming loans that the USA had during the sub-prime economic crisis.

So, in my view if China and Russia co-operate in order to survive, that could be a good thing, because it will reduce the need for the USA to prop them up.

Last edited by Void (2018-03-09 14:22:41)

EdwardHeisler · 2018-03-09 16:45:09

The real question is for how long will China continue to prop up the U.S. economy? They could cash in and stop buying treasury notes if Trump engages in unfair trade war actions against Chinese capitalists.

That's several trillion dollars pulled out of the economy that used to subsidize the national debt.

The Chinese are doing very well without any U.S. economic help. They are leading or soon will be leading the world in economic and technological development.

Go to China and see it for yourself. Don't be easily taken in by old cold war propaganda. China and Russia are no longer "communist" nations and governments. They went capitalist with strong government regulations and controls (especially in China} which capitalists just hate in the United States.

I don't have time to cite all of their major economic and scientific achievements over the past several years. That would be a very long and impressive list.

Some right-wing Chinese are very skeptical about engaging in joint efforts with American captalists. They are worried that the United States might "steal" their technology.

But they like and trust Elon Musk. He will produce Tesla's in China and perhaps may enter agreements to collaborate with Chinese scientists and their government on space exploration.

Hope they do!

Last edited by EdwardHeisler (2018-03-09 16:47:49)

kbd512 · 2018-03-10 16:25:08

The Chinese don't prop up the US economy. We pump hundreds of billions of dollars into their economy every year by purchasing what was manufactured over there. The only thing "unfair" going on there is that the US is sending half a trillion dollars to a communist dictatorship every year. The Chinese don't have an economy to speak of without trading with functioning republics, like the US, South Korea, and Japan. Japan has less than 1/10th as many people as China and its GDP is about half that of China. The Chinese continue investing in America's economy because the Chinese people like eating and living indoors.

Tens of millions of their people would've starved and died if we hadn't given them tens of billions of dollars worth of silly little things like John Deere farming equipment and center pivot irrigation technology. In exchange, we get slave laborers to make the rubber ding dongs that the fat, lazy, entitled little whiners of the western world love so much. Our government decided awhile back to tie our economies together to prevent the Chinese economy from tanking the way the Russian economy did after their little socialism experiment failed.

The Chinese aren't doing diddly without our help and they don't lead the world in much of anything, except for the number of people murdered by their own government in the 20th century.

I've been to China multiple times over the course of years. China is still very much a communist nation. If you believe otherwise, then go over to "not communist" China and start criticizing their government the way you like to criticize President Trump. If you could do us that favor, then the rest of us wouldn't have to read any more of your magical thinking posts. You'll also get to see what real "gun control" looks like when you're on your knees in a ditch for the crime of criticizing their government and your family gets to pay for the bullet they use to execute you with.

Maybe you don't have time to cite China's economic and scientific achievements, but I'll save everyone else here the time of trying to find one as a result of another of your baseless claims. Here it comes ladies and gents: gunpowder. That's it. What a long and impressive list that was.

China's economic and scientific achievements came from trade or theft of scientific and economic achievements from real capitalist republics, like the United States. China has lots of cheap labor to exploit, but that's the extent of what it has going for it.

As for their strong regulations, little Eddie is stunningly ignorant of reality. Other countries don't make baby formula laced with chemicals used to make fertilizer to save a few pennies. I'm sure that the capitalists over here "just hate" the fact that they're not allowed to make baby formula with fertilizer ingredients. I'm sure the only reason they don't do that is the lack of regulations we have.

The Chinese need not worry about anyone stealing their technology because they don't have anything to steal.

The Chinese probably want Mr. Musk to show them how to make an electric car or a reusable rocket. With all of their technological and economic prowess, I'm sure the Chinese could've done that all by themselves... Except they haven't because they don't know how.

Xi Jinping will ensure that their economic system reverts back to the agrarian nonsense that they thought was necessary while the western world had industrialized to a point where the socialist systems were made to look like the sick joke that they are. The purges have already started. The rest of the world can sit back and watch them slowly devolve to where they were when the commies came to power. Dimwit over there thinks his government should be a model for the rest of the world.

Void · 2018-03-10 17:54:55

I have not been to China. All I have is what I see on the internet. I follow Peter Zeihan.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Pe … ORM=VRDGAR

The above is not a video I am aware of so far. Usually I watch him on my phone. Anyway if you have curiosity, you may query for Peter Zeihan and videos.

If I am not deceived.

1) China is pushing loans in a manner not imaginable per our 2008 sub prime crash. Their objective is to keep people employed in order to reduce unrest.

2) Perhaps 20% of costal China is relatively modern. The rest has a standard of living like Bolivia.

3) Mexican labor is more skilled and cheaper than China Labor at this point.

4) We managed to borrow an enormous amount of money from China at very low interest rates
And China has an asset there. It would be stupid for them to attack us as they would have a very hard time then getting there money back. It would be stupid for them to damage our economy because again it would be very hard for them to get their money back.

5) USA/North America is incredibly blessed, unlike almost any place in the world.

6) A long time ago I realized that China would likely run a Ponzi scheme with capitalism. Run it into the ground. Run it to a crash. Then they can say to their people "See Capitalism and the west did this to you".

7) Xi is going to even be more powerful than Mao. When the crash comes, you can expect what you might imagine for methods to keep order in China.

8) USA navy vs rest of world: 20/1 in power.

9) Japan vs China in a naval war. China has no electricity after that, and cannot import oil by sea.

It goes on and on.

There has been a lot of international smugness for many years, implying that Americans are some kind of hill billie people.

Really, if you study what Peter Zeihan has to say, it has been the USA that has propped up the world since WWII including Russia and China, and Brazil, ect.

We have no reason to do it anymore other than to avoid a smoldering planet.

But maybe Peter Zeihan is full of it. I don't think so at this point.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2018-03-10 18:04:04)

GW Johnson · 2018-03-10 18:23:44

Don't trust Zeihan. Do trust this: if NASA cannot do anything but fly to LEO for 4+ decades and recently only with Russian help, why should Russia want anything to do with NASA regarding going anywhere further?

GW

Void · 2018-03-10 18:40:45

I have respect for you. I will be more cautious. However, I think that the plan of using Russia for deployment of personal, is a valid ploy, and not to damage Russia, rather to allow for development of fantastic things, such as SpaceX and others. But I do my own calculations. I saw what the fourth turning implied before I even read their materials. In fact I believe that my own calculations are better than theirs in some ways.

Point being it's going to be great for North America relative to the world. And China efforts will only play into our hand. Not that I have any intention that they will not benefit themselves.

Terraformer · 2018-03-11 04:45:49

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Maybe relative to the world, but only because the rest of the world will get worse quicker than America. America has a big problem with the growth ponzi scheme. As oil declines, it's going to be even worse - automobile dependency is tolerable only as long as you can fuel your automobiles. There isn't enough lithium for everyone to switch to electric cars, unless the US monopolises the global supply. That said, they could undo suburbanisation as quickly as they did it, if the will is there, so the pain could be limited to the next couple of decades.

I don't think the next few decades are going to be what we would consider pleasant. They weren't a century ago (two world wars, a flu pandemic, and a great depression - and that's just in the west!). But if we play our cards right, we can emerge out in the mid century stronger, and ready to colonise space. I'll turn 56 in 2050. Hopefully still young enough to get off this planet.

SpaceNut · 2018-03-11 09:03:13

You read my mind, as I have been researching a pedal powered, solar cell hybrid vehicle design for the daily work commute. Its small like the Cooper and Smart car to which if you have lots of stop n go traffic in the commute means you make use of the idle time to recharge the batteries.

Void · 2018-03-11 11:56:58

No it will not be pleasant for the rest of the world, and we will not be entirely immune here.

But we have:

Normal Oil-Natural gas

Shale Oil-Shale gas

Tar sands (In the USA) possibly for $22.00 per barrel. (Using solvents).
*And this solvent method can effectively remediate quite a lot of oil spill from soil if a pipeline leaks. And by the way pipelines are according to what I understand the safest method to move oil.

Oil Shale. Too pricy now, but if oil starts to run out, you can know the methods will exist.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene … cking.html

I am not so much a greenhouse effect nay sayer as to rather think we might prefer to harvest the CO2 and turn it into building materials. In that case in the future, no need to suppress the oil industry, or even coal. But that conversation does not seem to pick up any traction here. I think that the lefties need to have an unsolvable crisis, so that they can justify the imposition population servitude. Therefore they don't like it when a problem might be solvable by technology.

Look up petro-lithium for the problem of a shortage of lithium.

As for solar energy of the USA, take a look at a globe. Even the northern part of the USA (Except for Alaska), is at a latitude similar to southern France.

And we have plenty of opportunity for power from wind and waves.

Basically, those who will be desperate for energy, such as Europe and China, Japan, ect. Will create and invent things that we will acquire. Not that we cannot create and invent.

We are incredibly blessed.

And so much of this might be applied to Mars!

Done.

Last edited by Void (2018-03-11 12:08:27)

Void · 2018-03-11 12:29:01

A double post. Oh well.

This post applies to the previous post. I want to make sure you understand what I intend.

A Hydrogen economy makes sense more for food than for cars. It also makes sense to dispose of exhaust CO2 on Earth and CO2 in the atmosphere of Mars.

This is an interesting one. Bacteria that grow in a microbial fuel cell, and produce electricity and live off of CO2 and Hydrogen.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 … 191102.htm

That would be sort of like a battery when your other methods of power production were down and out.

But I am more interested in food and plastics from microbes that eat CO2 and Hydrogen.

This is closer:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti … -from-co2/
Quote:

By breathing in carbon dioxide and hydrogen, an engineered version of the bacterium Ralstonia eutropha produced branched alcohols, compounds that can be blended with gasoline or serve as an energy source on their own. This could help repurpose carbon emissions in a way that can generate money.

I think that is close enough. It should be possible to see that a similar method could create food from microbes that eat CO2 and Hydrogen as well. Chemosynthesis for the masses. No need to starve, if you have respect for people who know technology and are not stupid VV's who eat the goose that lays the golden eggs.

So, the point being, Hydrogen is difficult to use for cars because of storage problems. But if you are using it to generate food, chemicals, etc. Then your tanks can be stationary, and in fact you may not need to store much of it at all. It may be that primarily it gets used immediately. And the production of Hydrogen could be a "Load Leveling" device.

As for the cost of Hydrogen, I believe that is being worked on. However if there is going to be a Carbon Tax in some countries, then their should be a Carbon credit, if you convert produced CO2 into food. That is not going to fly in the USA just yet.

And of course I am referring to solar cisterns again, (Which will be more about chemosynthesis than photosynthesis), and there will be no reply about that will there?

We don't want solutions.

We want to rule the public.

Milk the public.

Yes?

Done.

Last edited by Void (2018-03-11 12:42:51)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2021-05-29 12:00:56

They plan on launching 100,000 kg to space for their station.

https://twitter.com/Cosmic_Penguin/stat … 1205402627

Russian space corporation praises China's first Mars landing
https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/269 … rs-landing

China and Russia space programs to share space flight components, says Russian agency
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-russia- … 59989.html

Why the China-Russia space alliance will speed up human exploration of Mars
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4176/1

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-04-15 08:37:53

China Is Halting Science Cooperation With Russia
http://nasawatch.com/archives/2022/04/c … altin.html

"Partners of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) from China "paused" cooperation with the academy, freezing the development of previously discussed projects. This was announced on Thursday by the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Sergeev during the International Scientific and Practical Conference "Digital International Relations - 2022", which is being held at MGIMO.

"If we are talking about the southern or eastern directions, unfortunately, I can directly say that our Chinese scientific colleagues also paused, and over the past month we have not been able to enter into such serious discussions, despite the fact that we had a wonderfully built cooperation with regular communication," Sergeev said."

"He added that in any case, we will have to return to normal cooperation, including in the field of science. "Therefore, it is very correct to behave in such a way that we ourselves do not succumb to provocations, do not break off relations, still try to save what we have where we can save it," the head of the Russian Academy of Sciences added.

According to Sergeev, the RAS continues contacts with those scientists who want to cooperate. But when it comes to agencies and academies of sciences in other countries, the situation is very complicated. As the head of the Russian Academy of Sciences noted, "there has never been such a situation."

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-08-20 16:28:41

The status of Luna 25 will be closely watched in China. Russia is China's main partner for the International Lunar Research Station, with Luna 25 also nominally part of the project. Failure during an orbital manoeuvre would not inspire confidence in Beijing.

https://twitter.com/AJ_FI/status/1693177162180784530

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#1 2018-03-08 17:02:23

Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

#2 2018-03-08 18:11:54

Re: Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

#3 2018-03-09 14:13:27

Re: Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

#4 2018-03-09 16:45:09

Re: Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

#5 2018-03-10 16:25:08

Re: Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

#6 2018-03-10 17:54:55

Re: Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

#7 2018-03-10 18:23:44

Re: Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

#8 2018-03-10 18:40:45

Re: Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

#9 2018-03-11 04:45:49

Re: Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

#10 2018-03-11 09:03:13

Re: Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

#11 2018-03-11 11:56:58

Re: Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

#12 2018-03-11 12:29:01

Re: Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

#13 2021-05-29 12:00:56

Re: Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

#14 2022-04-15 08:37:53

Re: Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

#15 2023-08-20 16:28:41

Re: Russia's Space Agency Might Break Up With the U.S. To Get With China

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