The Oil Price War 2015, nations, money flow, spacefaring.

Void · 2015-11-11 15:04:55

I have been watching the Oil Price War, and note here several things I have read. Add some comments as well I hope.

Of course the tie in to space, would be an increased or decreased flow of money to nations who exhibit space flight capability.

Historically, this first started by the price of Oil going high, and making unconventional energy sources worth going after.

One of those unconventional technologies is fracking in North America.

With Solar and Wind coming along, it becomes obvious that under the previous high pricing, the days of Carbon fuels were numbered as an almost exclusive energy source. Whereas, previously owning the raw materials was the dominant position, now owning the markets is the dominant position. We are too strong to colonize, so, the producers have to live with that.

Who can really know what has been going through the minds of major oil producers, but guesses, indicate that they new that the Oil they owned was at risk of being devalued.

So, they decided to try to run alternative energy and high cost oil producers out of business to groom the future market to their needs.

So, we appear to have some groups of note in this game.
1) USA/Tight Oil
2) Gulf nations/Cheap Oil
3) Poor Oil Nations/Venezuela, Nigeria, etc.
4) Russia and company/Cannot stop their oil wells or they will freeze
5) True alternative energy and high cost oil productions

It looks like the #2 will put #5 back pretty hard, and #3 will more than likely have to live with much less.

It looks like at the worst all that #2 can do to #1, and has already done to a degree is to create an internal strategic oil reserve for the USA.
-Oil that is not worth pumping now, is just capped off and waits for a demand, and a price rise. In fact they are drilling wells and just capping them off now

As for #4, they appear to be in an oil market war with #2, for the China/Asia market, and they seem to be winning ground in that war.

Some of the #1 activity, "Tight Oil" is still competitive, due to North American innovations.

So, as an article I just read seemed to say, "Opec has just earned themselves a permanent pay cut".

So, as for the economic implications which might relate to Space.

Everybody presumably gets cheaper oil, and can manufacture goods cheaper. Of course this risks setting off global deflation since also shipping costs go down, and so they can compete with each other in the same markets.

That's a curious thing deflation/depression. "We have too many able bodied people who could fix things, so let's be poor"

Anyway from our standpoint, hardware for space should become cheaper, and although a small cost, fuel cheaper. Spacefaring nations should have more cash left over after fuel costs.

While Russia will suffer from lower Oil costs, it's economy is less dependent on Oil than others, just like the USA is a major producer, but is less dependent on oil than say Opec members. Russia will also be able to benefit by buying cheaper goods from China/Etc and Europe/Etc.

Well, even though it can be perceived in the news that the world may have some general tendency towards bad economics, the point is relative economics going forward seem to favor nations in general that happen to have some space faring capabilities, or at least are more technological in character.

Of course some not producer 3rd world nations also benefit from low fuel costs as well.

Last edited by Void (2015-11-11 15:39:33)

SpaceNut · 2015-11-11 17:44:36

The clock has progessed from when the US was at the door of the severest recession approximate 8 years ago when the price of gas was on the rise towards $4 plus a gallon with a gradual over the last couple returning back to the now low of $2 which has allowed the economy to recover.

I am not sure if its the source of oil inside the US or from others that have been priced more resonably but its sure seems to do a number on the economy when it stayed high.....

louis · 2015-11-11 20:33:11

Autarky used to be a dirty word but I think that is the way the world is heading technologically through: internal energy supply (e.g. wind, solar, geothermal, energy from waste, LENR and other energy sources); indoor agriculture (polytunnels are a kind of first step in that direction); intensive recycling of materials; 3D printing; and, ultimately, transmutation of elements.

Void · 2015-11-11 21:47:59

That's a good alternate perspective I think, upon reflection. Thanks.

Humans are rather binary in behaviors through times or perhaps more properly cyclic. Globalization, could be like a party that has gone on a bit too long. You might just want to go home and have a good nights sleep.

Transmutation. I had a bit of trouble not thinking that was fantastic, but we do make Helium if we perform fusion don't we. It's a start in that direction. I guess I am just slow to learn.

SpaceNut · 2015-11-11 22:13:57

Transmutation look to the E-cat design which uses isotopic elements which after electricity and heat are exchanged from it functioning the elemental make up is altered from what was used when the reactions started.
We would call the cold fusion....

Terraformer · 2015-11-12 08:14:48

I definitely think we're heading towards autarky, largely as a result of increased automation and equality. Making goods in China and shipping them to America only makes sense if labour is significantly cheaper in China - but machines take the same wage wherever you are, and the remaining high skilled labour probably won't be any cheaper abroad, not if they can move.

Void · 2015-11-12 14:52:49

So, I read your various references, and am impressed.

Transmutation would be particularly valuable in space activities, if you had lots of Nickel, it would seem, to make your Copper.

And Autarky in spite of it's shady past, does in fact also by itself have deep value for human groups who are remote from the main historical center, Earth.

So, all good.

This does suggest a tidal wave level of change going forward in time. In most cases potentially good, at least for North America and Europe. Our Air Craft carriers may be almost or completely out of date, but in the near future, it likely does not matter, since we will have far less vital interests overseas.

It's good for an old guy like me to get such and update, since, I am rather out of touch.

Last edited by Void (2015-11-12 14:53:48)

Tom Kalbfus · 2015-11-13 15:04:14

Void wrote:

I have been watching the Oil Price War, and note here several things I have read. Add some comments as well I hope.
Of course the tie in to space, would be an increased or decreased flow of money to nations who exhibit space flight capability.
Historically, this first started by the price of Oil going high, and making unconventional energy sources worth going after.
One of those unconventional technologies is fracking in North America.
With Solar and Wind coming along, it becomes obvious that under the previous high pricing, the days of Carbon fuels were numbered as an almost exclusive energy source. Whereas, previously owning the raw materials was the dominant position, now owning the markets is the dominant position. We are too strong to colonize, so, the producers have to live with that.
Who can really know what has been going through the minds of major oil producers, but guesses, indicate that they new that the Oil they owned was at risk of being devalued.
So, they decided to try to run alternative energy and high cost oil producers out of business to groom the future market to their needs.
So, we appear to have some groups of note in this game.
1) USA/Tight Oil
2) Gulf nations/Cheap Oil
3) Poor Oil Nations/Venezuela, Nigeria, etc.
4) Russia and company/Cannot stop their oil wells or they will freeze
5) True alternative energy and high cost oil productions
It looks like the #2 will put #5 back pretty hard, and #3 will more than likely have to live with much less.
It looks like at the worst all that #2 can do to #1, and has already done to a degree is to create an internal strategic oil reserve for the USA.
-Oil that is not worth pumping now, is just capped off and waits for a demand, and a price rise. In fact they are drilling wells and just capping them off now
As for #4, they appear to be in an oil market war with #2, for the China/Asia market, and they seem to be winning ground in that war.
Some of the #1 activity, "Tight Oil" is still competitive, due to North American innovations.
So, as an article I just read seemed to say, "Opec has just earned themselves a permanent pay cut".
So, as for the economic implications which might relate to Space.
Everybody presumably gets cheaper oil, and can manufacture goods cheaper. Of course this risks setting off global deflation since also shipping costs go down, and so they can compete with each other in the same markets.
That's a curious thing deflation/depression. "We have too many able bodied people who could fix things, so let's be poor"
Anyway from our standpoint, hardware for space should become cheaper, and although a small cost, fuel cheaper. Spacefaring nations should have more cash left over after fuel costs.
While Russia will suffer from lower Oil costs, it's economy is less dependent on Oil than others, just like the USA is a major producer, but is less dependent on oil than say Opec members. Russia will also be able to benefit by buying cheaper goods from China/Etc and Europe/Etc.
Well, even though it can be perceived in the news that the world may have some general tendency towards bad economics, the point is relative economics going forward seem to favor nations in general that happen to have some space faring capabilities, or at least are more technological in character.
Of course some not producer 3rd world nations also benefit from low fuel costs as well.

And what is Germany doing to compete with Russia? Does the German Space Program have anything comparable to Russian launchers? I make this comparison because Germany and Russia have similar sized economies, so Germany ought to be able to do whatever Russia does in space.

I wonder when Germany is going to stop acting like a small nation and begin acting like the medium-sized nation that it is.

Void · 2015-11-13 18:19:18

Just what do you want.

SpaceNut · 2015-11-13 18:47:22

Tom to be fair there are alot of nations that need to grow up too, say nothing about a space program....from thoses that do have an economy that should be reaching for the stars....Space is still expensive and until its price becomes obtainable to the middle class then its just a play toy for the rich and governments....

louis · 2015-11-13 20:37:08

Yes, robot labour will be a v. important step up towards autarky. Wherever you are on the globe you will, in principle, have access to highly skilled (robot) labour without the need to develop education systems or overcome negative cultural factors.

For the last 600 years at least global trade has been dominant. But I think that historical phase is coming to an end. No need to trade if you can do it yourself.

Terraformer wrote:

I definitely think we're heading towards autarky, largely as a result of increased automation and equality. Making goods in China and shipping them to America only makes sense if labour is significantly cheaper in China - but machines take the same wage wherever you are, and the remaining high skilled labour probably won't be any cheaper abroad, not if they can move.

louis · 2015-11-13 20:41:15

Global trade and the need to protect trade routes and trade centres has been a major factor in creating the conditions for horrendous, bloody wars. So to the extent that autarky removes that casus belli - that's got to be good. I think it may also create the conditions for disinterested international co-operation.

Void wrote:

So, I read your various references, and am impressed.
Transmutation would be particularly valuable in space activities, if you had lots of Nickel, it would seem, to make your Copper.
And Autarky in spite of it's shady past, does in fact also by itself have deep value for human groups who are remote from the main historical center, Earth.
So, all good.
This does suggest a tidal wave level of change going forward in time. In most cases potentially good, at least for North America and Europe. Our Air Craft carriers may be almost or completely out of date, but in the near future, it likely does not matter, since we will have far less vital interests overseas.
It's good for an old guy like me to get such and update, since, I am rather out of touch.

Void · 2015-11-14 00:23:20

Some cultures are showing interesting methods according to a relative. That person visited friends in Japan, and described a very advanced technological culture.

Of major interest to me was a simple thing. They have arrangements where building include shopping malls, and apartments. The apartments are upstairs, and the shopping and other facilities downstairs. Of course with a very compact nation with a super good train system, cars are not really that needed.

This in fact would be rather more like what I might expect on a future Mars. Obviously there are efficiencies.

A down side would be the danger of hate actions, such compact facilities being a tempting target for criminal sub cultures. Also such compact habitats have to have a better level of maintenance, or of course they could be susceptible to simple arson, or bad results from poor maintenance of equipment. However apparently Japan does not have a culture that is susceptible to those dangers. Staying away from the 'T' word here.

Void · 2015-11-14 09:39:01

It seems that the issue of the believed greenhouse effect feeds into this as well. Major nations on the Earth want to rotate out of Carbon fuels anyway and will be favoring alternative energy.

And then there is this:
http://www.mnn.com/green-tech/research- … -fuel-your

Graphene breakthrough could make it possible to fuel your car with air
Graphene membranes could be used to 'sieve' hydrogen gas from the atmosphere to then generate electricity, say Nobel Prize-winning researchers.

By: Bryan Nelson
December 1, 2014, 10:38 p.m.
Graphene
Graphene's structure is an atomic-scale honeycomb lattice made of carbon atoms. (Photo: Wiki Commons)

The Nobel Prize winners for graphene research, Andre Geim of Manchester University and colleagues, have revealed a new application for the ultra-thin, ultra-strong material that could revolutionize fuel cell technology and open new doors for generating clean energy, reports Reuters.
Graphene, which was first isolated in 2004, is the thinnest material on Earth at just one atom thick, and is 200 times stronger than steel. It is impermeable to all gases and liquids, making it extremely useful, and its discovery paved the way for everything from corrosion-proof coating to super-thin condoms.
In their latest research, Geim and his team have also shown that this super-material could potentially be used for "sieving" hydrogen gas from the atmosphere, for the purpose of generating electricity. The finding could make hydrogen fuel cells more viable than ever before, and even make it possible to collect fuel right out of the air.
"We are very excited about this result because it opens a whole new area of promising applications for graphene in clean energy harvesting and hydrogen-based technologies," said Geim's co-researcher on the study, Marcelo Lozada-Hidalgo.
Though graphene is impermeable to even the smallest of atoms, Geim and his team found that protons, or hydrogen atoms stripped of their electrons, were nevertheless capable of passing through the material. This was especially the case when the graphene was heated and when graphene films were covered with platinum nanoparticles, which act as catalysts.
Basically, this means that graphene could potentially be used in proton-conducting membranes, which are essential components of fuel cell technology. Graphene would be a superior material for these components because it does not leak — a common problem with membranes made of other materials — which would greatly improve efficiency.
Perhaps even more remarkable, however, is that this latest breakthrough means graphene membranes could be used to extract hydrogen straight from the atmosphere. When combined with fuel cells, this technology could make it possible to make mobile electric generators powered just by the tiny amounts of hydrogen in the air.
"Essentially, you pump your fuel from the atmosphere and get electricity out of it," Geim said. "Our (study) provides proof that this kind of device is possible."

So more wealth to go to those who will participate in technological work for a living instead of trying to enslave other peoples with words and weapons.

Hurray for Autarky

Last edited by Void (2015-11-14 09:41:41)

Tom Kalbfus · 2015-11-15 11:41:04

Void wrote:

Just what do you want.

Maybe the Germans should have a launcher like the Proton. The Germans have yet to launch one of their own astronauts into space instead of hitching a ride with someone else. I think the Japanese should definitely have a more aggressive Space Program. I don't understand why the United States is the only member of the Free World with its own space program capable of launching astronauts into space. The only other two countries that have done this are Russia and China. So the United States is part of an exclusive club whose only other two members are dictatorships. Germany should step up to the plate, and so should Japan, that is what I think.

Void · 2015-11-15 12:23:06

Perhaps they will. Certainly if space mining becomes real $,$$$,$$$,$$$.$$ They all like money. So do I.

SpaceNut · 2015-11-15 18:33:44

louis there is a draw back to "have access to highly skilled (robot) labour without the need to develop education systems or overcome negative cultural factors." and that is no one to fix the systems, no one to design new replacements all followed by a collaspe of economy as there is no money from the newly low class created service jobs.....

Void the "arrangements where building include shopping malls, and apartments." is called walkability and that removes the need for arteries of road clogged cars and greater distances to these services.

Tom Kalbfus "Maybe the Germans should have a launcher like the Proton." true but even Nasa with its much greater resources is struggling to create a mostly new rocket. So it must not be that easy to do or Nasa would be much further long with SLS....

GW Johnson · 2015-11-16 15:11:18

From a technical / engineering standpoint, it's simply not very hard to build a rocket-powered ballistic vehicle, or else Von Braun and his Peenemunde group would not have succeeded in building an operational ballistic missile by 1944. They did it in only about 6 or 7 years of sustained big-time effort.

What's holding everybody back today has little to do with technical difficulty, and everything to do with bureaucratic non-support, and more especially (!!!) with big-corporate practices that have turned the rocket launch business into one facet of a giant-corporate welfare state in multiple countries. It's not about doing anything anymore, it's all about how much money you can get from the taxpayers to do that nothing. Been there and watched that happen for decades.

The big space establishments in multiple countries would have you believe that launch is very difficult and expensive, and always will be (that's how they got so big, by the way). Spacex and some others will hopefully eventually show them to be liars, but that message really hasn't gotten out yet. Wish I'd been there long enough to have seen that!!

That's not to say it's easy (ask Virgin, Orbital, and Spacex, they've all had their disasters), but it's not all that hard either. But only as long as you remember, and effectively deal with (!!!), the fact that "rocket science" ain't just science. You cannot hire high school dropouts and underpay them to follow a cookbook. Same applies to new college grads, too. Been there and dealt with that myself.

Rocket science (or any other facet of the broader engineering industries) is only about 40% science written down somewhere, it's also about 50% art never written down (because no manager ever wanted to pay for that), and it's about 10% blind dumb luck. And that's in production work. In development work, the art and luck factors are even higher. Been there, done that.

The art was passed on one-on-one by example and instruction on-the-job from guys about 50-55 years old to the new hires, until about the 1970's. After that, most shops let engineers go by the time they reach about 45-50, as too expensive to keep around. I taught many young engineers on-the-job myself for many many years. An awful lot of what I taught them to do wasn't in any textbooks at all. That's the art. Been there and done that, too.

That's because professional management ideology (as taught in business schools) says technical art is a heretical concept, and all engineers are alike. If you believe in that nonsense, then you want only youngsters that you can underpay on your staff. Been there and been hurt by that.

And in the short term, you make more money that way by cutting labor costs. Longer term, it leads to failure-to-produce and perhaps even company bankruptcy, but few professional managers stick around long term anymore. They take the money and run. It's euphemistically called a "golden parachute". Been there and seen that.

GW

Terraformer · 2015-11-16 17:23:01

How much would be needed to pay for the art to be written down?

SpaceNut · 2015-11-16 20:10:51

On body to take dictation from when the on the job training was done by the soon to be retiring.....
I have that same problem where I work in that there is to much reliance on what is call OJE (on the job education) which is never passed on by the oldest generation but by those that still remain so less and less knowledge is passed on especially with quick turn over rates for job jumping to get higher wages.....

Terraformer · 2015-11-17 10:31:21

Could we crowdfund the money to pay the old guys to write down what they can? I would gladly give 50 dollars to get a book on ramjet engineering by GW Johnson.

GW Johnson · 2015-11-17 10:42:04

The problem out in industry is two-pronged: (1) stuff not written down, and (2) bad management belief system. Until (2) is fixed, there's no point to try to fix (1), which would just be even more job insecurity for engineers. There is a value to the experience that comes with age. But, it shows up only long term. That's why the belief system says it does not exist. That belief system is focused 100% on short-term results. Which is actually insane, based on millennia of human experience.

And, I actually am writing that book on ramjet engineering. I have a lot of the raw source material written down, and I am working on a coherent outline for the actual book now. And its content will be current. I do have one client who is building hardware to go test his ramjet engine subscale. The ultimate application is a hypersonic rocket-ramjet propelled airplane that could be manned. Heat protection in a reusable form for the engine as well as the airframe is the hardest part of the project. Followed by achieving an incredible fuel turndown ratio, without disrupting distribution, evaporation, and flame stability.

GW

Last edited by GW Johnson (2015-11-17 10:46:20)

Void · 2015-11-17 16:16:31

Did you ever feel like you were holding up the sky and being raped at the same time G.W. And by I****s who proclaim their very special importance (Verbally, and with Violence).

Last edited by Void (2015-11-17 16:18:55)

GW Johnson · 2015-11-18 16:49:39

Hi Void:

The answer to your question is "yes". And it does not matter what industry we talk about. I've worked in several.

GW

Antius · 2015-11-21 15:53:47

Transmutation is not a new thing, we have been doing it for 70 years in nuclear reactors. It has yet to become a useful source of materials. The cost of separating fission product streams generally exceeds the value of the elements. Trying to do the same with a particle accelerator would be very energy intensive. That said, fast neutron reactors, if anyone actually stumps up the cash to develop them, are a useful tool for disposing of those nasty long lived activities.

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#1 2015-11-11 15:04:55

The Oil Price War 2015, nations, money flow, spacefaring.

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