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#76 2023-01-11 21:43:14

Void
Member
Registered: 2011-12-29
Posts: 6,976

Re: How far to the abundance economy?

I have updated my notion of what we have for a climate situation.  I believe that it is likely that we would still be in the little ice age, if the industrial revolution had not happened.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

This allows for a drying out in many places and yet a warming up at the poles.  A Greenhouse effect made stronger will heat the poles more than the lower latitudes, I believe.  Glaciers in mountains are tending to dry up as less evaporation is occurring at the lower latitudes due to cooler oceans.  This is substantiated by a report that the Pacific has stored cold from the little ice age.

Knowing this, might be true, it is easy to see why we don't observe technological civilizations yet.  It seems to me that it was just stupid luck that allowed us to get a pause from an increasing ice age process.

If Antarctica is accumulating more snow, then this is further evidence as if the poles are warmed up, Antarctica is polar, very reflective, and generally of a high altitude.  Warming up the North Polar area though could easily melt Greenland, as it has a much smaller area.

And yes, I am going to talk about an abundance economy.

First of all, we stay technological and do not listen to the neopaegan types.

Tesla is likely to get the Tesla Bot going, in Elon time.

Bill Gates has something solar going that sounds impressive. http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php … 48#p204948

This is the Video: https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=%2 … &FORM=VIRE

Helion Fusion is looking like it might get there in time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bDXXWQxK38

I am getting the feeling that we may be very positively surprised over time.

If you don't like my diagnosis of the climate situation, keep in mind that I am very eager to encourage new Energy Resources.

Eavor is yet another thing coming along.  https://www.eavor.com/

And then we seem to have an abundance of new space machines that are appearing to be about to become actual.

And I don't think that we will need EV's that much as it turns out.  Bill Gates investment item is supposed to be able to generate Hydrogen.
If you can do that, then it would not be that much trouble to manufacture liquid hydrocarbon fuels using CO2.

We should stop scaring the kids about a climate panic.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2023-01-12 10:25:49)


Done.

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#77 2023-11-02 17:23:57

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 8,903

Re: How far to the abundance economy?

if you think about California long term with so many available resources it should be fine but in the shorter times measured of a human life, you get many political changes and political types are destroying the state.

Off-World

Making Mars the planet of plenty and excess a surplus of Waters and Minerals from mines, a Chemical center and production of Metals, the Farmers human or robot to make Food stuff to make Fuels or building material and Oxygen production.

Breathing Martian Air
https://time.com/collection/best-invent … asa-moxie/

The Scientific Reason Tomatoes Have Been Sent To Outer Space
https://au.lifestyle.yahoo.com/scientif … 37516.html

Detailed Mars Water Map Shows Where to Land Future Explorers
https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/11/detailed … explorers/

the Abundance of Energy and Power

Pursuing fusion power
https://news.yahoo.com/pursuing-fusion- … 00803.html

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2023-11-02 17:25:23)

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#78 2023-11-23 14:22:17

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 8,903

Re: How far to the abundance economy?

EU Parliament backs extensive net-zero industry ‘wishlist’, including nuclear

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy … gue-talks/

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#79 2023-11-26 07:41:31

Calliban
Member
From: Northern England, UK
Registered: 2019-08-18
Posts: 3,352

Re: How far to the abundance economy?

Starting in 1960, trade in merchandise started trending upward.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS

This hit a brick wall in 2008, and shows a slow downward trend since then.  The COVID epidemic saw a brief resurgence, as people trapped in their homes ordered lots of stuff and companies rebuilt inventories after lockdowns.  But global trade as a percentage of GDP is clearly trending downward. This may be the first signal of the breakdown in globalisation. 

As can be seen in Gail Tverberg's latest article, oil prices were low by present day standards until the early 1970s.  But they increased substantially after 1972, as US onshore conventional oil was no longer the key marginal supplier.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2023/11/22/r … e-economy/

This reduced, but did not halt, global per capita GDP growth.  But the world has grown more slowly since the early 70s and more debt is needed per unit of GDP.  This explains why interest rates had to keep falling to maintain growth.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY … cations=1W

Since, 2021, interest rates have increased as central banks have attempted to combat rising prices by increasing borrowing costs.  This never appeared to be a very well thought out solution to me.  But it is what you get from people that insist of treated the economy as a financial construct rather than a physical system.  We now appear to be heading into a perfect storm.  Most of the worlds working age populations are contracting as the demographic unwinding sets in.  This reduces the capital base available for investment and reduces consumer base at the same time.  Interest rates are rising, making capital intensive investment more expensive.  And energy prices remain stubbornly high.  If global trade breaks down in this environment, global GDP will collapse, because older demographies are very dependant on exports of finished goods to keep their economies in balance and imports of energy and raw materials.  But investment of all kinds is becoming more expensive and difficult.  I sense hard times ahead.

Last edited by Calliban (2023-11-26 08:11:44)


"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."

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