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#126 2007-06-27 02:32:36

cIclops
Member
Registered: 2005-06-16
Posts: 3,230

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

HOW the total price can be LESS than the SUM of the single parts???

the price of the AresV hardware will be AT LEAST $350M ...and I don't include in that price the shared R&D costs and the fixed annual costs for the AresV launches' earth assembly and support (I've read an estimated $1.3Bn per year of fixed costs ...then, a further $650M per launch...)

The difference between your external estimate of the marginal cost and Hanley's internal one is only 17%. Given that Ares V is in the initial design phase and probably won't fly before 2017, this difference is IMHO not worth discussing now.
bashhh4.gif

Estimating total R&D and fixed costs for a project ten years from flying is also extremely difficult. AFAIK NASA have not yet released official estimates. Ares V will have many of the same subsystems as Ares I, so R&D and fixed costs will be shared. One of the key requirements for Ares V and Ares I is to significantly reduce fixed costs, as this is being considered so early in the design phase there is a good chance it will be achieved.


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#127 2007-06-27 08:53:26

gaetanomarano
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From: Italy
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Posts: 701

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

The difference between your external estimate of the marginal cost and Hanley's internal one is only 17%. Given that Ares V is in the initial design phase and probably won't fly before 2017, this difference is IMHO not worth discussing now.

I've calculated the AresV hardware price on TO-DAY'S costs, that, in the next 10-12 years, could grow very much like already happened with nearly ALL space projects (Apollo, Shuttle, Hubble, ISS, JWST, Ariane5, etc.) so, the final price of each AresV flight's hardware in 2019 could likely be TWICE than estimated now!
I've read the $800M Ares-I and $1300M Ares-V fixed annual costs on a NASA document published months ago on another forum (then, not easy to retrieve now)
assuming a 2019 (optimistic) hardware price of $500M and the (again, optimistic) 2019 AresV yearly fixed costs at $1500M, each AresV flight (of the two per year planned in 2020-2025) should cost (at least) $500m + $500M + $1500M = $2500M / 2 = $1250M ...excluding the Ares-I, Orion, LSAM and the shared R&D costs to develop everything...
any cheaper figure is PURE ESAS PROPAGANDA
.

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#128 2007-08-06 05:54:39

cIclops
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Posts: 3,230

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

Ares V an Enabling Capability for Future Space Astrophysics Missions (PDF 1.3MB) - 9 May 2007

Ares V mass and volume capabilities enable entirely new mission architectures


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#129 2007-08-27 16:13:12

Tom Kalbfus
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Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

You could put the equivalent of Palomar Observatory into orbit as 6 meters is more that 200 inches. What could be done with such observatories? Perhaps a detailed survey of the asteroids?

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#130 2007-09-06 08:56:41

cIclops
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Registered: 2005-06-16
Posts: 3,230

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

ares5launchflowbp5.jpg
Lunar payload/Ares V mobile launch concept flow - ripped from Draft PEIS (PDF 22MB) - Aug 2007

Abbreviations:
ARF     Assembly and Refurbishment Facililty
ASTF   Aft Skirt Test Facility
LCC    Launch Control Center
O&C   Operations and Checkout
OSF    Ordinance Storage Facility
PRF     Parachute Refurbishment Facility
RPSF   Rotations, Processing and Surge Facility


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#131 2007-09-06 17:17:06

Tom Kalbfus
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Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

I notice the Ares rocket design is evolving and as time progresses, it looks increasingly Saturn-like.

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#132 2007-09-06 23:01:50

cIclops
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Registered: 2005-06-16
Posts: 3,230

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

Yes. Form tends to follow function and given that Ares V will be doing a similar job it's not surprising that it resembles the Saturn V. Ares V has side boosters of course which do alter the appearance. Improvements in technology, such as more efficient engines and better structural materials means that Ares V will be able to inject 45% more payload than Saturn V onto a lunar trajectory. This also means it can provide the lift capacity needed for human Mars missions.


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#133 2007-09-07 09:35:21

RedStreak
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From: Illinois
Registered: 2006-05-12
Posts: 541

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

I'm sure JSC's full of nastalsia to add to that.  wink


Hopefully the testing on the 5-segment SRBs will proceed smoothly - they're obviously going to be the first step toward the Ares V we'll see in the next few years.

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#134 2007-09-07 11:31:42

gaetanomarano
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From: Italy
Registered: 2006-05-06
Posts: 701

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

ares5launchflowbp5.jpg
Lunar payload/Ares V mobile launch concept flow - ripped from Draft PEIS (PDF 22MB) - Aug 2007


this august 2007 NASA launch vehicles looks pretty close to MY (april 12, 2006) Single Launch Vehicle... smile smile smile
http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/004.html


004.jpg

.

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#135 2007-09-07 12:10:01

cIclops
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Registered: 2005-06-16
Posts: 3,230

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

Yes it does and look what's sitting on top of the Ares V ... yes an Orion!


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#136 2007-09-07 17:36:23

Tom Kalbfus
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Posts: 4,401

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

Yes it does and look what's sitting on top of the Ares V ... yes an Orion!

So they changed the mission architecture and no longer launching the Orion on a seperate rocket? A solid rocket with a liquid upper stage or so I hear?

They were probably thinking, what if they launched the Ares V but couldn't get the Ares I off the pad due to weather or some mechanical failure that delays the Ares I launch for months, meanwhile the Upper stage of the Ares V awaits in orbit while its fuel boils away.

Also launching a small rocket and a big rocket might be more expensive than just launching one big rocket.

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#137 2007-09-07 22:12:25

Michael Bloxham
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From: Auckland, New Zealand
Registered: 2002-03-31
Posts: 426

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

Hang on... Has there been an official policy change to reflect this?

Why is there an Orion on the Ares V?


- Mike,  Member of the Clean Slate Society

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#138 2007-09-08 00:24:22

cIclops
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Registered: 2005-06-16
Posts: 3,230

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

There is no official change of architecture, probably a confused graphic artist smile


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#139 2007-09-08 11:32:28

Tom Kalbfus
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Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

But there is some logic in sending the whole mission, astronauts and all in one rocket. What if the manned rocket launch gets scrubbed due to technical problems after the part that is supposed to get the astronauts to the Moon successfully launches?

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#140 2007-09-08 13:51:18

cIclops
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Registered: 2005-06-16
Posts: 3,230

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

The basic idea behind the Ares architecture is to separate crew and cargo. Use a large cheap vehicle for replaceable cargo and a more expensive, safer, more reliable launcher for crew. Ares V has eight engines, six of which are  cryogenic, whereas Ares I is inherently safer with only two engines, one solid and one cryogenic, and a launch abort system.

Ares V will be launched first, once checked out on orbit the more reliable Ares I will follow about 90 minutes later. Using two vehicles increases the total lift capacity and makes Ares I useful for ISS crew transport and other missions such as NEO and L1/2. Lunar and Mars missions need as much lift capacity as possible,  the extra 25 mT lift that Ares I provides is very helpful.


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#141 2007-09-08 15:58:11

Austin Stanley
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From: Texarkana, TX
Registered: 2002-03-18
Posts: 519
Website

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

You could put the equivalent of Palomar Observatory into orbit as 6 meters is more that 200 inches. What could be done with such observatories? Perhaps a detailed survey of the asteroids?

6m is overkill for searching for near earth asteroids, a 1-2m scope would do just fine for that.  As for for those out in the main belt, I'm sure a 6m scope would do fine, but an IR scope would be even better as asteroids are more visible in that wavelength, and earth bound scope have travel getting that wavelength.


He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense.

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#142 2007-09-08 16:07:46

Tom Kalbfus
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Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

But what if your intent was to determine their composition and shape? A 6-meter space telescope would also produce better pictures of Pluto.

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#143 2007-09-08 16:09:58

Tom Kalbfus
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Registered: 2006-08-16
Posts: 4,401

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

The basic idea behind the Ares architecture is to separate crew and cargo. Use a large cheap vehicle for replaceable cargo and a more expensive, safer, more reliable launcher for crew. Ares V has eight engines, six of which are  cryogenic, whereas Ares I is inherently safer with only two engines, one solid and one cryogenic, and a launch abort system.

Ares V will be launched first, once checked out on orbit the more reliable Ares I will follow about 90 minutes later. Using two vehicles increases the total lift capacity and makes Ares I useful for ISS crew transport and other missions such as NEO and L1/2. Lunar and Mars missions need as much lift capacity as possible,  the extra 25 mT lift that Ares I provides is very helpful.

If one Ares V and an Ares I can get us to the Moon, what might be done with two Ares Vs and an Ares I?

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#144 2007-09-09 02:42:27

cIclops
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Registered: 2005-06-16
Posts: 3,230

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

If one Ares V and an Ares I can get us to the Moon, what might be done with two Ares Vs and an Ares I?

Land people on Mars.


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#145 2007-09-09 05:54:41

Tom Kalbfus
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Registered: 2006-08-16
Posts: 4,401

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

If one Ares V and an Ares I can get us to the Moon, what might be done with two Ares Vs and an Ares I?

Land people on Mars.

Maybe the payload would be a nuclear rocket.

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#146 2007-09-10 02:00:17

cIclops
Member
Registered: 2005-06-16
Posts: 3,230

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

aresvetestscf6.jpg
Major engine test and flight plan - ripped from Draft PEIS (PDF 22MB) - Aug 2007

Note that the 2nd mission flight in 2019 will be a human lunar landing


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#147 2007-09-10 03:07:38

Michael Bloxham
Member
From: Auckland, New Zealand
Registered: 2002-03-31
Posts: 426

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

I would like to see the next Mars rover that is launched via Ares V... Man, this Ares V is really gonna make the whole shuttle era really embarassing for NASA.

Has there been discussion of using the Lunar EDS for Mars missions?


- Mike,  Member of the Clean Slate Society

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#148 2007-09-10 03:21:53

cIclops
Member
Registered: 2005-06-16
Posts: 3,230

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

I would like to see the next Mars rover that is launched via Ares V... Man, this Ares V is really gonna make the whole shuttle era really embarassing for NASA.

Has there been discussion of using the Lunar EDS for Mars missions?

MSL is the next rover and AFL is the next one proposed after that, both can be launched by an Atlas V class vehicle. An Ares V would be total overkill.

Yes using the EDS for Mars missions was discussed in the ESAS. It's job is to lift heavy large payloads out of Earth's gravity well.


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#149 2007-09-12 04:17:55

Michael Bloxham
Member
From: Auckland, New Zealand
Registered: 2002-03-31
Posts: 426

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

How much mass could the Ares V with the Lunar EDS send to a trans-mars trajectory?


- Mike,  Member of the Clean Slate Society

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#150 2007-09-12 05:02:14

cIclops
Member
Registered: 2005-06-16
Posts: 3,230

Re: Ares V (CaLV) - status

The last numbers NASA published in Sep 2006 said Ares V could put 53.2 mT of payload into TLI. That's approximately the same as TMI as it has to reach Earth escape (11 kms/sec), so the payload should also be about the same.


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