New Mars Forums

Mad Grad Student

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From: Phoenix, Arizona, North Americ

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

This forum is inspired by that one about "What If Percival Lowell Had Been Right?" Instead I ask the What if: "What if the event that practically killed Mars had never happened and Mars had developed just like Earth?"

Now, the "event" I refer to is the most likely (In my opinion) theory about what happened to Mars. Aobut 1.7 billion years ago a collision with a huge asteroid broke apart a tenth planet in between Mars and Jupiter, creating the asteroid belt. Unfortunately, Mars happened to be in the way at the time and was struck with a rather large piece, creating an upthrust of volcanoes (The Tharses region), Olympus Mons, the Mariner Valley and after about 10 million years killed about all tectonic activity. Additionally, much of the atmosphere was sheared off.

The dust cloud wiped out virtually all cyanobacteria, and over the course of about 100 million years, the remaining monerans (minus a few extreme bacteria species) choked themselves on CO2. The result, a near-dead, red rock rotating around the sun just waiting for some intellegent creatures (ahem, humans) to come along and colonize it. But, what if this had never happened?

Well, first of all, it would never have been named Mars, but probably Neptune as it would have appeared blue, not red to the Romans. Later, Galileo (Or one of the astronomers) would have pointed his telescope over there and seen vast oceans and white clouds. Shock! We're not alone in the solar system!

I think that with conditions as good as Mars had, eventually multicellular life would have developed there, albeit in a totally different way then on Earth. However, I belive that the odds are increadibly slim of developing human-level intellegance under any circumstances, so Mars would be limited to vast undisturbed forests (At least ferns seem like a logical assumption) and other exotic life.

Later, astronomers would have seen this under higher-quality telescopes and realized that Mars would be a pretty inviting place to visit. 100 years later humans travel to the moon and, what? Where would we go from there?

I created this forum for you to discuss where the state of space travel (And our view of ourselves in the universe, for that matter) if that one event hadn't occured. I, for one, believe that we would have gone to Mars by now. While visiting a frozen desert wasteland doesn't seem to excite much public attnetion, visiting an alien world you could walk around in your shirtsleves in just might. Whadya think?

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A mind is like a parachute- it works best when open.

rgcarnes

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

I think that if the postulated asteroid that might have killed a budding Mars had not taken place, then the asteroid that did the job of removing the dinosaurs and clearing the way for us might not have taken place either. 

We might then have to be the result of the hostile takeover by some cunning dexterous off-shoot of the dinosaurs with enough intelligence to overcome the big guys and then develop technology.  To have developed from that root would probably have required us to be very wise and extremely vicious.  I would think more so than we humans are.  Could such beings cooperate enough to go to Mars?  Perhaps.
???

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If the Meek Inherit the Earth, Where Do All the Bold Go?

Gennaro

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From: Eta Cassiopeiae (no, Sweden re

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

The dominant theory right now seems to be however that the asteroid belt is not a result of planetary collisions but simply left overs from the formation of the solar system.

http://www.solstation.com/stars/asteroid.htm

dickbill

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

Mars gravity was too light anyway to retain a dense atmosphere, with or without impact, a sustained life on Mars surface was condamned. Underground however, it's different, and if Life ever existed on Mars, fossils will be found one day.

The Hellas bassin impact could have been a global sterilizer for example.

Mad Grad Student

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

Actually, you'd be surprised. A planet like Mars could theoretically have contained a thick, Earth-like atmosphere, although only half of our's would've sufficed. After all, Venus has is 80% of Earth's mass, and an atmosphere that's 80 times as thick. Titan is only one sixth of Earth's size and has an atmosphere nearly twice as thick, so that's not the problem here.

Now, in this hypothetical scinerio, only one meteor impact is changed. Every other one, Permian-Triassic meteor, the dinosaur killer, and the Shoemaker-Leavy 9 comet that hit Jupiter still happened. Perhaps in some alternate universe this is going on right now. ???  (Not likely, though)

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A mind is like a parachute- it works best when open.

Free Spirit

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

If Mars had remained hospitable to life, I think there would be a lot more members of the Mars Society than there currently is.  Von Braun would probably have seen a Martian base in his lifetime simply because the Cold War players wouldn't have let a whole, habitable planet slip through their fingers and it would be a lot easier to excite the public over a new "Eden."  If the countries didn't succeed in the early years of spaceflight, the greater ecological awareness that exists today may have led to treaties forbidding a human presence on Mars, except for maybe a few research bases scattered about like in Antartica.

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My people don't call themselves Sioux or Dakota.  We call ourselves Ikce Wicasa, the natural humans, the free, wild, common people.  I am pleased to call myself that.  -Lame Deer

Shaun Barrett

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From: Cairns, Queensland, Australia

Registered: 2001-12-28

Posts: 2,843

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

Interesting speculative thread here!

    Just a couple of thoughts.
    If Mars had retained a global magnetic field, protecting it from the solar wind sputtering which is believed to have been a major player in removing its atmosphere, I think it would probably have been able to keep that atmosphere. Or at least, I think it may have kept most of it.
    I don't think Martian gravity is the main problem. Major impacts and solar wind sputtering seem to be regarded as the worst culprits

    The asteroid belt was first postulated to be the remnants of a planet which broke up. Since then, nobody has been able to find a sound theoretical basis for the kind of energy which would be required to explode a planet against the pull of its own gravity. In addition, if you add up the masses of all the asteroids in the belt, you don't get enough material to make even the tiniest of planets, which led scientists to look at Jupiter's effect on the space the belt occupies. Jovian gravitational effects are thought to be too great to allow the accretion of enough material to form a planet where the asteroid belt is situated.
    So, rather than the remains of an exploded planet, the asteroids of the belt are regarded as a 'failed' planet instead.
    [Mind you, Richard Hoagland has other ideas, of course!!]
                                                        :;):

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The word 'aerobics' came about when the gym instructors got together and said: If we're going to charge $10 an hour, we can't call it Jumping Up and Down.   - Rita Rudner

Cobra Commander

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

The prospect of a whole planet ripe for colonization without all that whining about killing the savages that live there! Oh, how generous the gods can be! And considerate too.

I'd say there's no question this would have radically advanced spaceflight development. Mars by 1900? No, I suppose not. But Mars by 1940 seems reasonable, given that the basics of rocketry needed to get there were known and just in search of funding to develop further.

Perhaps a three-way space race? The United States, Soviet Union and Nazi Germany? There's a certain symmetry to it, three concepts of human society, each irreconcilable with the others, competing to seize a new world and make it in their image. Despite my own American bias, if that were the case I'd have to put my money on Fritz. Not an endorsement, just a realistic assessment given our own history.

So, what kind of world would we live in then?
For starters, people that talked about Nazi Mars bases wouldn't be laughed out of the room, but we'd also probably have a tenser world. Excuse me, worlds. Anyone that thinks Germany would pass on developing all that Martian lebensraum is sorely mistaken. The Russians and Americans would have to develop their own colonies, not that they wouldn't anyway. The initial settlements would probably be uneven, talk of a "Mars Gap" would spur a colonization race. All three powers trying to build bigger and bigger rockets to get more people to the new planet.

Project Orion would suddenly have some traction, and would probably be copied by the other two powers. Within a few decades fleets of atomic spacecraft would be zipping across the void of space to Mars. The fallout would be manageable as long as the launch sites were carefully chosen and nuclear weapons testing was limited. Hardly a major issue, all three sides would have the capacity to destroy the worlds ten times over, the real fight is to out-colonize the rivals.

The frontier quickly closes, all of Mars falling under control of one of the three powers. Travel between the German, American and Russian sectors is tightly controlled. Man lives in the new Eden under the Sword of Damocles, but hopes for a better future.

The more things change...

I'd like to see someone try to goose-step on Mars, could be quite amusing. 

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Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.

Mad Grad Student

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From: Phoenix, Arizona, North Americ

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

Actually, the tenth planet theory is just the only one I've heard of, so if you guys know of any others I'd be glad to hear them.

If the total mass of the asteroid belt is too small to equal a planet, what about a smallish moon then? If Mars formed with a moon around it, then concievablly the satelite could have been hit by an asteroid at just the right time in it's orbit to be slingshotted out of Mars' gravity and into interplanetary space. A small piece, only about 200-km across, could have done the job to Mars, and having a moon at some point would explain how life developed and why the days are so regular on the red planet. The only other places we know of where life exists (Earth and probably Europa) have had the asistence of tidal forces.

I still don't think we could have gotten to Mars untill about 1980, as no one would be definate enough about a reason to go there untill probes had proven that Mars would be a nice place to visit. The earliest point I can imagine a lander making it to Mars is late-60's-ish, as telescopes alone wouldn't be enough to cause a Mars frenzy. Once a lander nets a swarm of flying insects similar to fruit flies, though, (Sidebar in 1969 to the moon landing), the race would be on.

As for who would win the second space race, I honestly think the Soviets would get to Mars first, as they had more experience in working/repairing things in space, living there for long periods of time, and some downright brilliant scientists (Though the Americans had that, too). Plus, the shock at loosing the moon just might be enough to convince the Russians to claim Mars and the ultimate prize of the 20th century.

Not that the Americans wouldn't put up a fight, though.

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A mind is like a parachute- it works best when open.

Shaun Barrett

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From: Cairns, Queensland, Australia

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Posts: 2,843

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

Mad Grad Student:-

If the total mass of the asteroid belt is too small to equal a planet, what about a smallish moon then?

    That got my curiosity aroused and I did a bit of googling to see just how much material there actually is in the asteroid belt.
    It turns out there's about 2.3*10^21 kg of material in the belt, compared to our Moon's mass of 7.35*10^22 kg, which is roughly 30 times as much.
    Assuming a rough parity in density, I calculated that all the present day asteroid material, if gathered into one body (and ignoring the effects of gravitational compression), would form a planetoid with a diameter of about 1100 kms.
    Its surface gravity would be about 0.05g

    This is a rather more substantial body than I'd imagined it to be, judging by the references to it that I've read over the years. And it does sound easily big enough to constitute a respectable moon for Mars in your imaginary scenario, Mad Grad. In fact, it's about half the diameter of Pluto!
    Indeed, if you take into consideration the likelihood that a sizeable portion of that moon would have been lost in the process of disintegrating, which means the asteroid belt today might represent only half of the total original material, then your hypothetical 'Martian Luna' could well have been even bigger.

    I'm not sure, though, how you would explain all that material from the destroyed moon leaving Mars all together and forming a ring of debris in solar orbit. And you have to explain also why that debris chose just the right distance from the Sun to comply with Bode's Law - assuming Bode's Law has any significance other than coincidental, of course!

    As to the timetable for exploration if Mars had been found to have a dense atmosphere and seas, I would guess we'd have sent people there by the 1970s.
                                                     

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The word 'aerobics' came about when the gym instructors got together and said: If we're going to charge $10 an hour, we can't call it Jumping Up and Down.   - Rita Rudner

Mad Grad Student

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From: Phoenix, Arizona, North Americ

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

Thanks for the info, Shaun, I thought a Charon-sized moon sounded bout right. As for the problem of how it got into a solar orbit, theoretically if the moon was at a point in its orbit where it was moving at peak velocity on the night side of the planet (Full moon position), AND was hit with sufficent velocity by another asteroid, it could've been forced into a higher orbit around the sun. Remaining pieces would have come down  in a steady hail for the next 20 million years or so, and Mars has a bed era.

Of course, the object that made the asteroid belt under this scinerio didn't necessarily have to be a moon. A planet would work even better, but would not explain why Mars has such regular, short days like Earth. The two planets that lack any sort of tidal forces, Mercury and Venus, have increadibly long days, in Venus' case, longer than its year. Also, tidal forces are very beneficial to life's development, but who knows?

Unfortunately, while getting to Mars is possible, I think it's a lot harder than some optimists would think. I'd say that the absolute minimum amount of time that humans could walk on Mars from the time that the first man-made object enters space is about 20-25 years. This places us in the range of 1965-70, but that's not counting for the lapse between '45 and '50 when there was no reason to go for it. The first intellegent creatures on Mars in this scinerio would land around 1982, in my opinion.

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A mind is like a parachute- it works best when open.

Gennaro

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From: Eta Cassiopeiae (no, Sweden re

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

For Cobra Commander, exclusively.

"Weltraumschiff 1 startet!"

Enjoy!

http://www.astronautix.com/articles/theorers.htm

dickbill

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

I'm not sure, though, how you would explain all that material from the destroyed moon leaving Mars all together and forming a ring of debris in solar orbit. And you have to explain also why that debris chose just the right distance from the Sun to comply with Bode's Law - assuming Bode's Law has any significance other than coincidental, of course!

Titius-Bode law gives the distance r of a planet in UA, is:
r = 0.4+0.3.2^n
where n is the rank of the planet: minus infini for mercury (use -50 for example), venus -1, earth 0, mars 1 etc.

I've seen a better formulation, more accurate, implying the golden number, but have to find it in my archives.

with that new formula, it was also interesting that you don't need to input the rank of a planet, it was enough to reiterate the calculation using the result r as a new value for n.
If you do that, strickingly, you find that several bodies (3 or 4, I don't remember) accumulates between Mars and Jupiter. strange .

Cobra Commander

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From: The outskirts of Detroit.

Registered: 2002-04-09

Posts: 3,039

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

[color=#000000:post_uid0]

[/quote:post_uid0]

For Cobra Commander, exclusively.

"Weltraumschiff 1 startet!"

Enjoy!

[URL=http://www.astronautix.com/articles/theorers.htm]http://www.astronautix.com/articles/theorers.htm[/URL[/quote:post_uid0]

Interesting. It reminds of an article I read several years back on the subject of why most of the pre-shuttle American rockets were painted in that black-and-white checkered pattern. Basicly the Americans did it that way because the captured German engineers painted experimental Nazi rockets that way. [i:post_uid0]They[/i:post_uid0] did so because the ship in the film "[i:post_uid0]Frau Im Monde[/i:post_uid0]" was painted that way and the Germans just felt that rockets [i:post_uid0]should[/i:post_uid0] look like that.[/color:post_uid0]

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Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.

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#15 2003-11-15 03:33:43

Free Spirit

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

The prospect of a whole planet ripe for colonization without all that whining about killing the savages that live there! Oh, how generous the gods can be! And considerate too.

Well, I don't think many of us were focused on the moral question of going to Mars, but rather what we believed what what the historical likelihood would be.  If there were 'savages' on Mars you can bet your a$$ I would be against colonizing it. And even though there are likely no 'savages' on Mars or anywhere else in the Solar System, I don't see what the big deal is about colonizing space anyway.  Imagine how miserable it would be to be cooped up in a metal can most of your life.  Not something I'd do, thankyou very much.  Unmanned craft are the obvious best way to explore the solar system.

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My people don't call themselves Sioux or Dakota.  We call ourselves Ikce Wicasa, the natural humans, the free, wild, common people.  I am pleased to call myself that.  -Lame Deer

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#16 2003-11-16 18:06:23

Cobra Commander

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

Well, I don't think many of us were focused on the moral question of going to Mars, but rather what we believed what what the historical likelihood would be.  If there were 'savages' on Mars you can bet your a$$ I would be against colonizing it.

The moral question of going to Mars under these hypothetical circumstances is part of the historical what-if. I was not saying that Martian natives would be savages, nor that any native people were savages. Many were looked on as such during Europe's colonial period, and I was simply saying that another area open for colonization without all the hassle would be readily exploited.

Of course even if Mars was populated by primitive natives I would still support colonization. We don't have to kill them, but leaving them the entire planet just because we feel guilty about the actions of people that lived centuries ago seems like a terrible waste.

I don't see what the big deal is about colonizing space anyway.  Imagine how miserable it would be to be cooped up in a metal can most of your life.  Not something I'd do, thankyou very much.  Unmanned craft are the obvious best way to explore the solar system.

And that is the fundamental difference in how we view the universe. I would embrace the opportunity to further the reach of civilization, even if it means hardship for me. I'd rather spend a year in a metal can travelling to a new world than spend a comfortable lifetime in a city. Those who believe that way explore, tame, and settle frontiers until they become too civilized and ordered, forcing us to move on. Those who think as you do not only would never expand their range, but require us and the work we have done. To rail against the evils of something yet partake in the bounty it provides is hypocrisy. Unmanned craft may be best for exploring the solar system, but without actually going to these worlds there's no point.

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Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.

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#17 2003-11-16 19:01:24

Mad Grad Student

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

I don't see what the big deal is about colonizing space anyway.  Imagine how miserable it would be to be cooped up in a metal can most of your life.  Not something I'd do, thankyou very much.  Unmanned craft are the obvious best way to explore the solar system.

And that is the fundamental difference in how we view the universe. I would embrace the opportunity to further the reach of civilization, even if it means hardship for me. I'd rather spend a year in a metal can travelling to a new world than spend a comfortable lifetime in a city.

Obviously, we'd always find someone willing to colonize a new planet, with nearly 7 billion people on this one, I think at least 50 (Would that be enough for a decent gene pool, if they were diverse?) would be willing to live on a planet like Mars. And their descendants would have no choice, not that they'd want to go back to Earth. No, on Earth you're too heavy, it rains all the time, and there are too many people; I imagine this is the view that people born and raised on another planet would be like.

Colinization is an entire different subject, but I'll go down that road for a while if you want. In this hypothetical, Mars is a lush, blue/green garden, totally untouched by humans. I think a lot of Gians/ecologists would actually prefer an environment to live on. Sure it would be a little cooler, the equator would be about the same as 30 degrees N/S, I guesstimate, but imagine what you could do in one third gravity! Plenty of people would volunteer for this.

As for colinizing the real Mars? I don't see this happening for at least another 500 years, if ever. The reason? The same reason no one lives in Antarctica. Sure, it's a neat place to visit for scientific reasons, but it's expensive to go to, a dump, and there's no real natural resources there we can't get elswhere. If massive quantities of something like uranium or diamonds or titanium is found there, then yes, we just might colonize it soon enough.

But of course this wouldn't happen unless the good is cheaper to mine and send over here than it is to just find here on Earth. In order for this to happen, two things must occur. First, the resource must occur in much greater quantities on Mars than it does on Earth. Second, we would have to find a way to lower transplanetary shipping costs to around $60 a pound. This could concieveably be done with a space elevator that goes all the way to the point where it's tips exceed escape velocity. Otherwise, I just don't see colinization happening.

What about colonizing new solar systems? If the human race wants to be around for longer than the next 5 billion years (Which I'm sure is what most people want) we must colonize new, younger systems. In a few hundred years it may be possible to send about 5,000 people in an O'Neill-style habitat using M2P2 drive to a nearby star system like Vega in only 2,000 years (Now that's technobable!). An advantage to this is that it gives the human race an insurance police against things like meteors, comets, the sun, and us.

Within 50 years we'll probably find a reasonably close (Within 120 light-years) system with an Earth-like planet or moon. I propose that we send this colony ship to the youngest system with a planet/moon like Earth was 2.2 billion years ago. Back then, our planet was much like it was today, the atmosphere was full of nitrogen and oxygen, with plants to keep it around, and a reasonable amount of CO2 to keep us warm at night. Of course, the most complex life-forms were stromatolites, or big lumps of blue-green algae.

The colony ship would arrive in geo-synchronous orbit, string down an elevator, and over the course of a decade or so, take apart the ship and reassemble it as as a city on the ground. About 200 species of trees, grasses, vertibrates, insects, and one of primates would be released to frolic among the colony's new home. In about 1,000 years some fast reporducing species would convert a continent into one similar to Earth's.

Of course the most obvious non-technical problem is how do you keep the colony together for the 2,000 year trip. No civilization has come close to reigning for this amount of time without a major coup, revolt, or overthrowing, so this would definately be a problem. Since such a small group is the subject, perhaps a simple government system, plus the fact that if one person doesn't do their job it's the end of the mission, could keep the town in harmony untill the ship arrives.

I don't know about the rest of you, but this is the kind of thing I actually might do. As Tsilokovsky said, Earth is the cradle, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever. The question is, are we ready to leave? ???

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#18 2003-11-16 22:31:27

Gennaro

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

As for colinizing the real Mars? I don't see this happening for at least another 500 years, if ever. The reason? The same reason no one lives in Antarctica.

- Big difference between Antarctica and Mars is that we have the means to alter Mars' environment. This can be achieved to a substatial degree in maybe less than a century after we initiate a serious terraforming effort.
The air won't be breathable, but the thick CO2 atmosphere created from greenhoose gassing will create both enough pressure and temperature increase for a comfortable shirt sleeve environment outside the domes. Much better than Antarctica which has a level of inhosptability set once and for all.
In about a thousand years or less, Mars will also acquire an oxygene atmosphere, making it practically just as habitable as Earth.

What about colonizing new solar systems?

- Sure we will, but the energy levels required for interstellar travel probably entails that we first spread out in this solar system and make use of its resources, which by the way will mean settlements on Mars by default. Simply because Mars is the best place around.

In a few hundred years it may be possible to send about 5,000 people in an O'Neill-style habitat using M2P2 drive to a nearby star system like Vega in only 2,000 years (Now that's technobable!)

- Got good news for you Mad Grad. We don't have to sqaunder generations on thousand-year voyages. Antimatter propulsion can reach velocities approaching light speed or more, which means that say 500 years from now, any solar system within 20 light-years or so should be reachable with trip times of a few decades. I.e in considerably less than a human lifetime.
Hopefully by then, as someone just happens to cross the universal speed limit, we might see that Einstein was simply wrong all along, making superluminal space travel a physical reality, thus enabling ways to go even faster.
:;):

Besides, Vega probably isn't a very good destination at all. This A type main sequence star at 25 ly, is only 350 million years old, meaning simply that its planetary system is still forming and that emerging rocky planets are constantly bombarded much in the same way as early Earth. Quite infernal environs.

http://www.solstation.com/stars/vega.htm

We should stick to good star systems that are much like our own. The nearest candidates on my list would be Alpha Centauri, Tau Ceti and 61 Cygni. Maybe also Epsilon Indi.
Farther off, systems like Omicron Eridani, Eta Cassiopeiae and Delta Pavonis seem very inviting and promising to me. Did you know for instance that Delta Pavonis is actually identical to "Caladan", home of house Atreides in Frank Herbert's Dune?
:;):

...we must colonize new, younger systems.

- Hm, why is that, exactly? I don't see any relevance to the question of stellar age from that perspective. Think about it. If we manage to spread out through a good part of the stellar neighbourhood within a few thousand years or so, a billion years more or less of stable environments in comfortable star systems won't mean heck. By the time the sun makes life on the Terran surface unbearable for example, descendants of humanity will long since have reached the other end of the galaxy. After all, it's only 91,000 light-years in diameter.

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#19 2003-11-17 19:17:06

Free Spirit

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Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

And that is the fundamental difference in how we view the universe. I would embrace the opportunity to further the reach of civilization, even if it means hardship for me. I'd rather spend a year in a metal can travelling to a new world than spend a comfortable lifetime in a city. Those who believe that way explore, tame, and settle frontiers until they become too civilized and ordered, forcing us to move on.

What do you do though when there are no frontiers left to tame?  If we're never able to leave the Solar System we could run out of new places to go rather quick and then we'll have the problem of trying to provide for potentially trillions of people rather than just a few billion.  If Earth remains the only home of humanity, we can insure that resources will be preserved for all time. 

Those who think as you do not only would never expand their range, but require us and the work we have done. To rail against the evils of something yet partake in the bounty it provides is hypocrisy. Unmanned craft may be best for exploring the solar system, but without actually going to these worlds there's no point.

For me, space exploration is more about science and discovery than anything, and I believe unmanned craft are a viable and exciting way to do that, not to mention the most economical.

Got good news for you Mad Grad. We don't have to sqaunder generations on thousand-year voyages. Antimatter propulsion can reach velocities approaching light speed or more, which means that say 500 years from now, any solar system within 20 light-years or so should be reachable with trip times of a few decades. I.e in considerably less than a human lifetime.

That passage above illustrates the most important reason not to stretch our human empire too far, the reliance on ultra energy-dense substances like anti-matter and other nuclear fuels is dangerous.  When you consider that 2 grams of plutonium can kill millions of people, it seems rather irresponsible to launch 72 pounds of it on Cassini with a rocket that has a 10% error rate.  Imagine how much that type of thing we'd be launching on a constant basis if we had to keep space bases fueled up.  I just see no reason for sending people into space.  It's not a place where we belong.

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My people don't call themselves Sioux or Dakota.  We call ourselves Ikce Wicasa, the natural humans, the free, wild, common people.  I am pleased to call myself that.  -Lame Deer

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#20 2003-11-17 20:06:39

Mad Grad Student

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From: Phoenix, Arizona, North Americ

Registered: 2003-11-09

Posts: 498

Website

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

I don't think that now is the time to name specific star systems to go to. We just simply don't know enough about what it takes to get a planet like Earth, which star systems have these conditions, and which ones are aged just enough to harbor life. Granted, we may find life existing in ways totally unlike that on Earth out there, but to make it easy for colinization we should go to the most Sol-like system.

I actually knew at the time I said it that Vega was much to young a system, but I just used it as an example because it has a developing planetary system, is younger than the sun, and is a short drive from Earth. Tau Ceti's out, it's too light to carry enough material for more than a few gas giants. Alpha Centauri's a nice guess, but we have no way of knowing if it would've had any material left over from it's nebula to make planets after three stars formed. Of course, it certantly could have planets.

It's highly dboutful that humans will live long enough in just one star system to witness the demise of the solar system as we know it, there's just too many variables involved. However, if we spread our gene pool over four or five systems, I see it happening for our descendants (Which, mind you, would be totally unlike ourselves after billions of years of evolution). The new colonies need not be younger than our own, but they should be if we only colonize one star and we want to ensure survival after the sun goes gas giant. With multiple colonies, this is not a problem.

About antimatter drive, as of now that stuff's really expensive and cumbersome/dangerous to use. M2P2 drive seemed like something we know is cheap and could be made reliable, but in a few hundred years antimatter technology could get there. Fission did that in only two decades, but that was because of the Manhattan Project. Worth it?  ??? 

Realistically speaking, if humans live long enough, by nature we'll have to colonize new stars, and believe me, humans will almost definately live long enough. Dinosaurs were around for almost 200 million years, can't we live at least one 100th that time? Sounds reasonable to me.

---

A mind is like a parachute- it works best when open.

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#21 2003-11-17 20:37:36

Cobra Commander

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From: The outskirts of Detroit.

Registered: 2002-04-09

Posts: 3,039

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

To address Free Spirit's points:

If Earth remains the only home of humanity, we can insure that resources will be preserved for all time.

No, we can't. Earth's resources are finite, conservation is insufficient. Eventually we will need more, or we perish.

I understand your position regarding not taking the risks associated with population growth, space travel, nuclear energy etc. I think they are completely off base, but to each his own. But consider this hypothetical scenario...

Let's say we have two habitable planets, each essentially identical. On each planet essentially identical races of sentient beings evolve at the same time. Both civilizations develop much as ours did, until we reach roughly our current point in history.

On one world, I am in charge. Through a coup, probably   but we needed to make some changes to get back on the right track. Our recent armed conflicts have left us with a great deal of technology that we can now apply to other areas. We begin to look longingly at the stars.

On the other planet Free Spirit has become ruler, or guru or something. Probably some giant committee had a group hug and decided to preserve the planet for all the cute little fuzzy creatures that call it home. That world's advancing technology scared enough people into listening to his back-to-nature philosophy and staying on their planet, content with what they have.

Meanwhile, I have begun to launch ships into the far reaches of that solar system. I avoid Free Spirit's planet because I'm such a nice guy and wouldn't want to impose.

After a while the resources of both planets become stretched. I can get what I need from the uninhabitable rocks throughout the solar system, but Free Spirit must make do with a constantly shrinking supply of the essentials. He tries to control population growth, but not having the stomach to sterilize people or dispose of unwanted children the strain becomes unbearable. His people begin to starve, solar and wind power is woefully insufficient to supply the needed electricity. Civilization breaks down.

Meanwhile, my people have developed a problem. There's too many. We have plenty of food, fuel and whatnot but we're running out of room to live in the conditions to which we've grown accustomed. So we go to Free Spirit's planet and settle it. We find all sorts of good stuff in it that its previous occupants were loathe to mine, but we have no reservations about it. As the centuries pass we remember them fondly, not for who they were but for their misguided policies which delivered their world to us and their courtesy in leaving so much for us.

Fanciful? Yes, but hopefully it serves to illustrate a point. 

Moving on...

About antimatter drive, as of now that stuff's really expensive and cumbersome/dangerous to use. M2P2 drive seemed like something we know is cheap and could be made reliable, but in a few hundred years antimatter technology could get there. Fission did that in only two decades, but that was because of the Manhattan Project. Worth it?

The real question is would it have been funded any other way? It certainly would not have happened as early as it did. Anti-matter bombs anyone?

---

Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.

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#22 2003-11-17 22:17:05

Bill White

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Registered: 2001-09-09

Posts: 2,114

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

As for colinizing the real Mars? I don't see this happening for at least another 500 years, if ever. The reason? The same reason no one lives in Antarctica. Sure, it's a neat place to visit for scientific reasons, but it's expensive to go to, a dump, and there's no real natural resources there we can't get elswhere. If massive quantities of something like uranium or diamonds or titanium is found there, then yes, we just might colonize it soon enough.

I always thought the Antarctic Treaties made it illegal to colonize that contintent. Something about scientists not wanting a bunch of greedy oil drillers ruining the last pristine bit of real estate left on the planet.

Abolish those restrictions and I believe the real estate developers would have the South Pole fully populated within the century.

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#23 2003-11-18 08:28:26

Palomar

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From: USA

Registered: 2002-05-30

Posts: 9,734

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

Free Spirit:  If there were 'savages' on Mars you can bet your a$$ I would be against colonizing it.

*There are no sentient beings on Mars.  This is a non-issue.  Free Spirit, you continually bring up a non-issue.  Why is that?  Imagine if I were to say "If there were a chance female Marsians were to be raped by Earth men, you can bet I'd be against colonizing it."  There are no female humanoids on Mars.  It's a non-issue.  Is humankind to be forever condemned and disallowed to ever do anything again (no further progress, no advancement) because of the horrendous actions of some very stupid, greedy people in the past?  If you think so, that's your prerogative.  While it's important to remember past atrocities, especially so as to prevent repetition in the future, I don't believe our hands should be forever tied because of what dead people did decades or centuries ago.

Isn't admitting/acknowledging past wrongs and seeking to ensure they do not happen again enough?  What else can we do?

Free Spirit:  "And even though there are likely no 'savages' on Mars or anywhere else in the Solar System, I don't see what the big deal is about colonizing space anyway.  Imagine how miserable it would be to be cooped up in a metal can most of your life.  Not something I'd do, thankyou very much."

*But what about people who do want to do this sort of thing?  With private funding, responsibility controls, etc.?  I agree with you that we need to clean up the Earth and continue working to preserve its health, cycles, etc.  That aside, I think humans are suffering from "cabin fever" of sorts.  You maintain it's a good idea just to stay here, because humanity is so miserable.  Not to venture out into space, because humanity is so miserable.  Even if Earth could be, in 200 years, returned as closely as possible to its original pristine condition, humanity would still have a level of misery in it.

To be frank, based on what you've said many times and how you've said it, it seems you've bought into some notions that life for primitive people was just absolutely wonderful; that they were peaceful hunters and gatherers who lived off the land, left each other alone, bliss and abundance everywhere.  The historical record indicates otherwise.  Like it or not, many humans are predators who yearn for domination, control, etc.  Even back then.  Even among themselves.  Even within their own lores and legends (wars, strife, hunger/famine...etc.).

I mentioned months ago my impression that humans are suffering from "cabin fever."  We are lumped together on one planet where, even millenia ago and NOT on the American continent, religions were drawing up invisible dividing lines on the land (i.e. "God/Jehovah/Allah/Whatever gave us this land; we are His/Its Chosen People, you are an unbeliever and thus profane, stay off our holy land").  The West has become sex-saturated/obsessed and now there are all these "reality TV" programs which strike me as being nothing more than sickening and weird voyeurism.

Yes, humanity in some respects is miserable, frustrated, etc.  But I don't see how staying *here* solely can or will alleviate the problem (it sure hasn't thus far!).  Why not go out into space?  Why not try to improve and better humankind, or give humanity another chance to redeem and prove itself? 

No, I can't guarantee it will improve mankind...but you can't guarantee it won't.  And there's the rub. 

--Cindy

---

We all know [i]those[/i] Venusians: Doing their hair in shock waves, smoking electrical coronas, wearing Van Allen belts and resting their tiny elbows on a Geiger counter...

--John Sladek (The New Apocrypha)

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#24 2003-11-18 11:47:37

Byron

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From: Florida, USA

Registered: 2002-05-16

Posts: 844

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

But what about people who do want to do this sort of thing?  With private funding, responsibility controls, etc.?  I agree with you that we need to clean up the Earth and continue working to preserve its health, cycles, etc.  That aside, I think humans are suffering from "cabin fever" of sorts.  You maintain it's a good idea just to stay here, because humanity is so miserable.  Not to venture out into space, because humanity is so miserable.  Even if Earth could be, in 200 years, returned as closely as possible to its original pristine condition, humanity would still have a level of misery in it.

To be frank, based on what you've said many times and how you've said it, it seems you've bought into some notions that life for primitive people was just absolutely wonderful; that they were peaceful hunters and gatherers who lived off the land, left each other alone, bliss and abundance everywhere.  The historical record indicates otherwise.  Like it or not, many humans are predators who yearn for domination, control, etc.  Even back then.  Even among themselves.  Even within their own lores and legends (wars, strife, hunger/famine...etc.).

I agree with your sentiment wholeheartedly :;):

While there is much work to be done here on Earth to temper the negative aspects of being human, I just don't see how privately-funded missions to other planets would distract from this goal.  In fact, it would probably lead to new technologies that could of great benefit to people on Earth.  If people on Mars figure out how to grow crops in half the time in half the space for example; those techniques could be used by hungry nations such as India and China to feed their populations without further stress on the land.  If the Martian colonists develop a cheap and efficient way of producing hydrogen from water with the use of solar power, then that could be used here on Earth to produce hydrogen without having to rely on fossil fuels or even nuclear power. 

I could go on and on here, but you get the drift...

Echoing what Cindy mentioned about humans being nasty predators in the past...that's very true.  People have been killing each other since the day we came down out of the trees (or if you're a Bible-toting Christian, one of the very first children on Earth ended up killing his brother...)  Even in the 21st century, we still haven't gotten it "right" as a race of humans, and it would be naive to think that we ever will, although there's no reason why we can't keep improving upon ourselves. 

Thing is, if you're a believer in resource and energy conservation, then the stuff we'll learn from the inventive (they'll have to be, just to survive) Martians will go a *long* ways towards protecting the environment here on Earth.  In fact, just the very idea that people have gone up into space and looked back on Earth is a strong reminder to the rest of us of how truly special this world really is.  People going to Mars and other planets will only strengthen this notion.  By getting the masses to start thinking about the Big Picture, hopefully they will see Earth as a beautiful planet that needs to be preserved for future generations.

B

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#25 2003-11-18 12:31:39

Palomar

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From: USA

Registered: 2002-05-30

Posts: 9,734

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

In fact, just the very idea that people have gone up into space and looked back on Earth is a strong reminder to the rest of us of how truly special this world really is.  People going to Mars and other planets will only strengthen this notion.  By getting the masses to start thinking about the Big Picture, hopefully they will see Earth as a beautiful planet that needs to be preserved for future generations.

B

*That's a really goint point, Byron.  Never underestimate the value of sentiment. 

It is entirely possible -- in fact, I dare say happily unavoidable -- that in the scenario you give us, Earth can only become more precious to its children.  The "you can't go home" aspect of space life will certainly endear it even further in the hearts of many humans.  How many of us look back with a jumble of emotions on our hometowns?  As time goes on, the negatives of the past are forgiven while the good and worthwhile qualities take on the shine and warmth of sentiment and cherished memories.

This is indeed entirely probable for Earth as well.

--Cindy

---

We all know [i]those[/i] Venusians: Doing their hair in shock waves, smoking electrical coronas, wearing Van Allen belts and resting their tiny elbows on a Geiger counter...

--John Sladek (The New Apocrypha)

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Free Spirit

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Registered: 2003-06-12

Posts: 167

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

The prospect of a whole planet ripe for colonization without all that whining about killing the savages that live there! Oh, how generous the gods can be! And considerate too.

Well, I don't think many of us were focused on the moral question of going to Mars, but rather what we believed what what the historical likelihood would be.  If there were 'savages' on Mars you can bet your a$$ I would be against colonizing it. And even though there are likely no 'savages' on Mars or anywhere else in the Solar System, I don't see what the big deal is about colonizing space anyway.  Imagine how miserable it would be to be cooped up in a metal can most of your life.  Not something I'd do, thankyou very much.  Unmanned craft are the obvious best way to explore the solar system.

---

My people don't call themselves Sioux or Dakota.  We call ourselves Ikce Wicasa, the natural humans, the free, wild, common people.  I am pleased to call myself that.  -Lame Deer

Cobra Commander

Member

From: The outskirts of Detroit.

Registered: 2002-04-09

Posts: 3,039

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

Well, I don't think many of us were focused on the moral question of going to Mars, but rather what we believed what what the historical likelihood would be.  If there were 'savages' on Mars you can bet your a$$ I would be against colonizing it.

The moral question of going to Mars under these hypothetical circumstances is part of the historical what-if. I was not saying that Martian natives would be savages, nor that any native people were savages. Many were looked on as such during Europe's colonial period, and I was simply saying that another area open for colonization without all the hassle would be readily exploited.

Of course even if Mars was populated by primitive natives I would still support colonization. We don't have to kill them, but leaving them the entire planet just because we feel guilty about the actions of people that lived centuries ago seems like a terrible waste.

I don't see what the big deal is about colonizing space anyway.  Imagine how miserable it would be to be cooped up in a metal can most of your life.  Not something I'd do, thankyou very much.  Unmanned craft are the obvious best way to explore the solar system.

And that is the fundamental difference in how we view the universe. I would embrace the opportunity to further the reach of civilization, even if it means hardship for me. I'd rather spend a year in a metal can travelling to a new world than spend a comfortable lifetime in a city. Those who believe that way explore, tame, and settle frontiers until they become too civilized and ordered, forcing us to move on. Those who think as you do not only would never expand their range, but require us and the work we have done. To rail against the evils of something yet partake in the bounty it provides is hypocrisy. Unmanned craft may be best for exploring the solar system, but without actually going to these worlds there's no point.

---

Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.

Mad Grad Student

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From: Phoenix, Arizona, North Americ

Registered: 2003-11-09

Posts: 498

Website

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

I don't see what the big deal is about colonizing space anyway.  Imagine how miserable it would be to be cooped up in a metal can most of your life.  Not something I'd do, thankyou very much.  Unmanned craft are the obvious best way to explore the solar system.

And that is the fundamental difference in how we view the universe. I would embrace the opportunity to further the reach of civilization, even if it means hardship for me. I'd rather spend a year in a metal can travelling to a new world than spend a comfortable lifetime in a city.

Obviously, we'd always find someone willing to colonize a new planet, with nearly 7 billion people on this one, I think at least 50 (Would that be enough for a decent gene pool, if they were diverse?) would be willing to live on a planet like Mars. And their descendants would have no choice, not that they'd want to go back to Earth. No, on Earth you're too heavy, it rains all the time, and there are too many people; I imagine this is the view that people born and raised on another planet would be like.

Colinization is an entire different subject, but I'll go down that road for a while if you want. In this hypothetical, Mars is a lush, blue/green garden, totally untouched by humans. I think a lot of Gians/ecologists would actually prefer an environment to live on. Sure it would be a little cooler, the equator would be about the same as 30 degrees N/S, I guesstimate, but imagine what you could do in one third gravity! Plenty of people would volunteer for this.

As for colinizing the real Mars? I don't see this happening for at least another 500 years, if ever. The reason? The same reason no one lives in Antarctica. Sure, it's a neat place to visit for scientific reasons, but it's expensive to go to, a dump, and there's no real natural resources there we can't get elswhere. If massive quantities of something like uranium or diamonds or titanium is found there, then yes, we just might colonize it soon enough.

But of course this wouldn't happen unless the good is cheaper to mine and send over here than it is to just find here on Earth. In order for this to happen, two things must occur. First, the resource must occur in much greater quantities on Mars than it does on Earth. Second, we would have to find a way to lower transplanetary shipping costs to around $60 a pound. This could concieveably be done with a space elevator that goes all the way to the point where it's tips exceed escape velocity. Otherwise, I just don't see colinization happening.

What about colonizing new solar systems? If the human race wants to be around for longer than the next 5 billion years (Which I'm sure is what most people want) we must colonize new, younger systems. In a few hundred years it may be possible to send about 5,000 people in an O'Neill-style habitat using M2P2 drive to a nearby star system like Vega in only 2,000 years (Now that's technobable!). An advantage to this is that it gives the human race an insurance police against things like meteors, comets, the sun, and us.

Within 50 years we'll probably find a reasonably close (Within 120 light-years) system with an Earth-like planet or moon. I propose that we send this colony ship to the youngest system with a planet/moon like Earth was 2.2 billion years ago. Back then, our planet was much like it was today, the atmosphere was full of nitrogen and oxygen, with plants to keep it around, and a reasonable amount of CO2 to keep us warm at night. Of course, the most complex life-forms were stromatolites, or big lumps of blue-green algae.

The colony ship would arrive in geo-synchronous orbit, string down an elevator, and over the course of a decade or so, take apart the ship and reassemble it as as a city on the ground. About 200 species of trees, grasses, vertibrates, insects, and one of primates would be released to frolic among the colony's new home. In about 1,000 years some fast reporducing species would convert a continent into one similar to Earth's.

Of course the most obvious non-technical problem is how do you keep the colony together for the 2,000 year trip. No civilization has come close to reigning for this amount of time without a major coup, revolt, or overthrowing, so this would definately be a problem. Since such a small group is the subject, perhaps a simple government system, plus the fact that if one person doesn't do their job it's the end of the mission, could keep the town in harmony untill the ship arrives.

I don't know about the rest of you, but this is the kind of thing I actually might do. As Tsilokovsky said, Earth is the cradle, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever. The question is, are we ready to leave? ???

---

A mind is like a parachute- it works best when open.

Gennaro

Member

From: Eta Cassiopeiae (no, Sweden re

Registered: 2003-03-25

Posts: 591

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

As for colinizing the real Mars? I don't see this happening for at least another 500 years, if ever. The reason? The same reason no one lives in Antarctica.

- Big difference between Antarctica and Mars is that we have the means to alter Mars' environment. This can be achieved to a substatial degree in maybe less than a century after we initiate a serious terraforming effort.
The air won't be breathable, but the thick CO2 atmosphere created from greenhoose gassing will create both enough pressure and temperature increase for a comfortable shirt sleeve environment outside the domes. Much better than Antarctica which has a level of inhosptability set once and for all.
In about a thousand years or less, Mars will also acquire an oxygene atmosphere, making it practically just as habitable as Earth.

What about colonizing new solar systems?

- Sure we will, but the energy levels required for interstellar travel probably entails that we first spread out in this solar system and make use of its resources, which by the way will mean settlements on Mars by default. Simply because Mars is the best place around.

In a few hundred years it may be possible to send about 5,000 people in an O'Neill-style habitat using M2P2 drive to a nearby star system like Vega in only 2,000 years (Now that's technobable!)

- Got good news for you Mad Grad. We don't have to sqaunder generations on thousand-year voyages. Antimatter propulsion can reach velocities approaching light speed or more, which means that say 500 years from now, any solar system within 20 light-years or so should be reachable with trip times of a few decades. I.e in considerably less than a human lifetime.
Hopefully by then, as someone just happens to cross the universal speed limit, we might see that Einstein was simply wrong all along, making superluminal space travel a physical reality, thus enabling ways to go even faster.
:;):

Besides, Vega probably isn't a very good destination at all. This A type main sequence star at 25 ly, is only 350 million years old, meaning simply that its planetary system is still forming and that emerging rocky planets are constantly bombarded much in the same way as early Earth. Quite infernal environs.

http://www.solstation.com/stars/vega.htm

We should stick to good star systems that are much like our own. The nearest candidates on my list would be Alpha Centauri, Tau Ceti and 61 Cygni. Maybe also Epsilon Indi.
Farther off, systems like Omicron Eridani, Eta Cassiopeiae and Delta Pavonis seem very inviting and promising to me. Did you know for instance that Delta Pavonis is actually identical to "Caladan", home of house Atreides in Frank Herbert's Dune?
:;):

...we must colonize new, younger systems.

- Hm, why is that, exactly? I don't see any relevance to the question of stellar age from that perspective. Think about it. If we manage to spread out through a good part of the stellar neighbourhood within a few thousand years or so, a billion years more or less of stable environments in comfortable star systems won't mean heck. By the time the sun makes life on the Terran surface unbearable for example, descendants of humanity will long since have reached the other end of the galaxy. After all, it's only 91,000 light-years in diameter.

Free Spirit

Banned

Registered: 2003-06-12

Posts: 167

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

And that is the fundamental difference in how we view the universe. I would embrace the opportunity to further the reach of civilization, even if it means hardship for me. I'd rather spend a year in a metal can travelling to a new world than spend a comfortable lifetime in a city. Those who believe that way explore, tame, and settle frontiers until they become too civilized and ordered, forcing us to move on.

What do you do though when there are no frontiers left to tame?  If we're never able to leave the Solar System we could run out of new places to go rather quick and then we'll have the problem of trying to provide for potentially trillions of people rather than just a few billion.  If Earth remains the only home of humanity, we can insure that resources will be preserved for all time. 

Those who think as you do not only would never expand their range, but require us and the work we have done. To rail against the evils of something yet partake in the bounty it provides is hypocrisy. Unmanned craft may be best for exploring the solar system, but without actually going to these worlds there's no point.

For me, space exploration is more about science and discovery than anything, and I believe unmanned craft are a viable and exciting way to do that, not to mention the most economical.

Got good news for you Mad Grad. We don't have to sqaunder generations on thousand-year voyages. Antimatter propulsion can reach velocities approaching light speed or more, which means that say 500 years from now, any solar system within 20 light-years or so should be reachable with trip times of a few decades. I.e in considerably less than a human lifetime.

That passage above illustrates the most important reason not to stretch our human empire too far, the reliance on ultra energy-dense substances like anti-matter and other nuclear fuels is dangerous.  When you consider that 2 grams of plutonium can kill millions of people, it seems rather irresponsible to launch 72 pounds of it on Cassini with a rocket that has a 10% error rate.  Imagine how much that type of thing we'd be launching on a constant basis if we had to keep space bases fueled up.  I just see no reason for sending people into space.  It's not a place where we belong.

---

My people don't call themselves Sioux or Dakota.  We call ourselves Ikce Wicasa, the natural humans, the free, wild, common people.  I am pleased to call myself that.  -Lame Deer

Mad Grad Student

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From: Phoenix, Arizona, North Americ

Registered: 2003-11-09

Posts: 498

Website

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

I don't think that now is the time to name specific star systems to go to. We just simply don't know enough about what it takes to get a planet like Earth, which star systems have these conditions, and which ones are aged just enough to harbor life. Granted, we may find life existing in ways totally unlike that on Earth out there, but to make it easy for colinization we should go to the most Sol-like system.

I actually knew at the time I said it that Vega was much to young a system, but I just used it as an example because it has a developing planetary system, is younger than the sun, and is a short drive from Earth. Tau Ceti's out, it's too light to carry enough material for more than a few gas giants. Alpha Centauri's a nice guess, but we have no way of knowing if it would've had any material left over from it's nebula to make planets after three stars formed. Of course, it certantly could have planets.

It's highly dboutful that humans will live long enough in just one star system to witness the demise of the solar system as we know it, there's just too many variables involved. However, if we spread our gene pool over four or five systems, I see it happening for our descendants (Which, mind you, would be totally unlike ourselves after billions of years of evolution). The new colonies need not be younger than our own, but they should be if we only colonize one star and we want to ensure survival after the sun goes gas giant. With multiple colonies, this is not a problem.

About antimatter drive, as of now that stuff's really expensive and cumbersome/dangerous to use. M2P2 drive seemed like something we know is cheap and could be made reliable, but in a few hundred years antimatter technology could get there. Fission did that in only two decades, but that was because of the Manhattan Project. Worth it?  ??? 

Realistically speaking, if humans live long enough, by nature we'll have to colonize new stars, and believe me, humans will almost definately live long enough. Dinosaurs were around for almost 200 million years, can't we live at least one 100th that time? Sounds reasonable to me.

---

A mind is like a parachute- it works best when open.

Cobra Commander

Member

From: The outskirts of Detroit.

Registered: 2002-04-09

Posts: 3,039

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

To address Free Spirit's points:

If Earth remains the only home of humanity, we can insure that resources will be preserved for all time.

No, we can't. Earth's resources are finite, conservation is insufficient. Eventually we will need more, or we perish.

I understand your position regarding not taking the risks associated with population growth, space travel, nuclear energy etc. I think they are completely off base, but to each his own. But consider this hypothetical scenario...

Let's say we have two habitable planets, each essentially identical. On each planet essentially identical races of sentient beings evolve at the same time. Both civilizations develop much as ours did, until we reach roughly our current point in history.

On one world, I am in charge. Through a coup, probably   but we needed to make some changes to get back on the right track. Our recent armed conflicts have left us with a great deal of technology that we can now apply to other areas. We begin to look longingly at the stars.

On the other planet Free Spirit has become ruler, or guru or something. Probably some giant committee had a group hug and decided to preserve the planet for all the cute little fuzzy creatures that call it home. That world's advancing technology scared enough people into listening to his back-to-nature philosophy and staying on their planet, content with what they have.

Meanwhile, I have begun to launch ships into the far reaches of that solar system. I avoid Free Spirit's planet because I'm such a nice guy and wouldn't want to impose.

After a while the resources of both planets become stretched. I can get what I need from the uninhabitable rocks throughout the solar system, but Free Spirit must make do with a constantly shrinking supply of the essentials. He tries to control population growth, but not having the stomach to sterilize people or dispose of unwanted children the strain becomes unbearable. His people begin to starve, solar and wind power is woefully insufficient to supply the needed electricity. Civilization breaks down.

Meanwhile, my people have developed a problem. There's too many. We have plenty of food, fuel and whatnot but we're running out of room to live in the conditions to which we've grown accustomed. So we go to Free Spirit's planet and settle it. We find all sorts of good stuff in it that its previous occupants were loathe to mine, but we have no reservations about it. As the centuries pass we remember them fondly, not for who they were but for their misguided policies which delivered their world to us and their courtesy in leaving so much for us.

Fanciful? Yes, but hopefully it serves to illustrate a point. 

Moving on...

About antimatter drive, as of now that stuff's really expensive and cumbersome/dangerous to use. M2P2 drive seemed like something we know is cheap and could be made reliable, but in a few hundred years antimatter technology could get there. Fission did that in only two decades, but that was because of the Manhattan Project. Worth it?

The real question is would it have been funded any other way? It certainly would not have happened as early as it did. Anti-matter bombs anyone?

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Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.

Bill White

Member

Registered: 2001-09-09

Posts: 2,114

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

As for colinizing the real Mars? I don't see this happening for at least another 500 years, if ever. The reason? The same reason no one lives in Antarctica. Sure, it's a neat place to visit for scientific reasons, but it's expensive to go to, a dump, and there's no real natural resources there we can't get elswhere. If massive quantities of something like uranium or diamonds or titanium is found there, then yes, we just might colonize it soon enough.

I always thought the Antarctic Treaties made it illegal to colonize that contintent. Something about scientists not wanting a bunch of greedy oil drillers ruining the last pristine bit of real estate left on the planet.

Abolish those restrictions and I believe the real estate developers would have the South Pole fully populated within the century.

Palomar

Member

From: USA

Registered: 2002-05-30

Posts: 9,734

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

Free Spirit:  If there were 'savages' on Mars you can bet your a$$ I would be against colonizing it.

*There are no sentient beings on Mars.  This is a non-issue.  Free Spirit, you continually bring up a non-issue.  Why is that?  Imagine if I were to say "If there were a chance female Marsians were to be raped by Earth men, you can bet I'd be against colonizing it."  There are no female humanoids on Mars.  It's a non-issue.  Is humankind to be forever condemned and disallowed to ever do anything again (no further progress, no advancement) because of the horrendous actions of some very stupid, greedy people in the past?  If you think so, that's your prerogative.  While it's important to remember past atrocities, especially so as to prevent repetition in the future, I don't believe our hands should be forever tied because of what dead people did decades or centuries ago.

Isn't admitting/acknowledging past wrongs and seeking to ensure they do not happen again enough?  What else can we do?

Free Spirit:  "And even though there are likely no 'savages' on Mars or anywhere else in the Solar System, I don't see what the big deal is about colonizing space anyway.  Imagine how miserable it would be to be cooped up in a metal can most of your life.  Not something I'd do, thankyou very much."

*But what about people who do want to do this sort of thing?  With private funding, responsibility controls, etc.?  I agree with you that we need to clean up the Earth and continue working to preserve its health, cycles, etc.  That aside, I think humans are suffering from "cabin fever" of sorts.  You maintain it's a good idea just to stay here, because humanity is so miserable.  Not to venture out into space, because humanity is so miserable.  Even if Earth could be, in 200 years, returned as closely as possible to its original pristine condition, humanity would still have a level of misery in it.

To be frank, based on what you've said many times and how you've said it, it seems you've bought into some notions that life for primitive people was just absolutely wonderful; that they were peaceful hunters and gatherers who lived off the land, left each other alone, bliss and abundance everywhere.  The historical record indicates otherwise.  Like it or not, many humans are predators who yearn for domination, control, etc.  Even back then.  Even among themselves.  Even within their own lores and legends (wars, strife, hunger/famine...etc.).

I mentioned months ago my impression that humans are suffering from "cabin fever."  We are lumped together on one planet where, even millenia ago and NOT on the American continent, religions were drawing up invisible dividing lines on the land (i.e. "God/Jehovah/Allah/Whatever gave us this land; we are His/Its Chosen People, you are an unbeliever and thus profane, stay off our holy land").  The West has become sex-saturated/obsessed and now there are all these "reality TV" programs which strike me as being nothing more than sickening and weird voyeurism.

Yes, humanity in some respects is miserable, frustrated, etc.  But I don't see how staying *here* solely can or will alleviate the problem (it sure hasn't thus far!).  Why not go out into space?  Why not try to improve and better humankind, or give humanity another chance to redeem and prove itself? 

No, I can't guarantee it will improve mankind...but you can't guarantee it won't.  And there's the rub. 

--Cindy

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We all know [i]those[/i] Venusians: Doing their hair in shock waves, smoking electrical coronas, wearing Van Allen belts and resting their tiny elbows on a Geiger counter...

--John Sladek (The New Apocrypha)

Byron

Member

From: Florida, USA

Registered: 2002-05-16

Posts: 844

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

But what about people who do want to do this sort of thing?  With private funding, responsibility controls, etc.?  I agree with you that we need to clean up the Earth and continue working to preserve its health, cycles, etc.  That aside, I think humans are suffering from "cabin fever" of sorts.  You maintain it's a good idea just to stay here, because humanity is so miserable.  Not to venture out into space, because humanity is so miserable.  Even if Earth could be, in 200 years, returned as closely as possible to its original pristine condition, humanity would still have a level of misery in it.

To be frank, based on what you've said many times and how you've said it, it seems you've bought into some notions that life for primitive people was just absolutely wonderful; that they were peaceful hunters and gatherers who lived off the land, left each other alone, bliss and abundance everywhere.  The historical record indicates otherwise.  Like it or not, many humans are predators who yearn for domination, control, etc.  Even back then.  Even among themselves.  Even within their own lores and legends (wars, strife, hunger/famine...etc.).

I agree with your sentiment wholeheartedly :;):

While there is much work to be done here on Earth to temper the negative aspects of being human, I just don't see how privately-funded missions to other planets would distract from this goal.  In fact, it would probably lead to new technologies that could of great benefit to people on Earth.  If people on Mars figure out how to grow crops in half the time in half the space for example; those techniques could be used by hungry nations such as India and China to feed their populations without further stress on the land.  If the Martian colonists develop a cheap and efficient way of producing hydrogen from water with the use of solar power, then that could be used here on Earth to produce hydrogen without having to rely on fossil fuels or even nuclear power. 

I could go on and on here, but you get the drift...

Echoing what Cindy mentioned about humans being nasty predators in the past...that's very true.  People have been killing each other since the day we came down out of the trees (or if you're a Bible-toting Christian, one of the very first children on Earth ended up killing his brother...)  Even in the 21st century, we still haven't gotten it "right" as a race of humans, and it would be naive to think that we ever will, although there's no reason why we can't keep improving upon ourselves. 

Thing is, if you're a believer in resource and energy conservation, then the stuff we'll learn from the inventive (they'll have to be, just to survive) Martians will go a *long* ways towards protecting the environment here on Earth.  In fact, just the very idea that people have gone up into space and looked back on Earth is a strong reminder to the rest of us of how truly special this world really is.  People going to Mars and other planets will only strengthen this notion.  By getting the masses to start thinking about the Big Picture, hopefully they will see Earth as a beautiful planet that needs to be preserved for future generations.

B

Palomar

Member

From: USA

Registered: 2002-05-30

Posts: 9,734

Re: What if the Event Never Happened? - And Mars is still a blue planet!

In fact, just the very idea that people have gone up into space and looked back on Earth is a strong reminder to the rest of us of how truly special this world really is.  People going to Mars and other planets will only strengthen this notion.  By getting the masses to start thinking about the Big Picture, hopefully they will see Earth as a beautiful planet that needs to be preserved for future generations.

B

*That's a really goint point, Byron.  Never underestimate the value of sentiment. 

It is entirely possible -- in fact, I dare say happily unavoidable -- that in the scenario you give us, Earth can only become more precious to its children.  The "you can't go home" aspect of space life will certainly endear it even further in the hearts of many humans.  How many of us look back with a jumble of emotions on our hometowns?  As time goes on, the negatives of the past are forgiven while the good and worthwhile qualities take on the shine and warmth of sentiment and cherished memories.

This is indeed entirely probable for Earth as well.

--Cindy

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We all know [i]those[/i] Venusians: Doing their hair in shock waves, smoking electrical coronas, wearing Van Allen belts and resting their tiny elbows on a Geiger counter...

--John Sladek (The New Apocrypha)