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#51 2005-07-24 21:56:56

srmeaney
Member
From: 18 tiwi gdns rd, TIWI NT 0810
Registered: 2005-03-18
Posts: 976

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

1) Its a hell of a lot of money to spend for no forseeable financial gain

That a good one...

Why would you send two people to live the rest of their lives on another world. Based on China's Space Agency White Paper, they are pursuing a manned presence in space for national security reasons, scientific benifit, and my all time favourite, promoting peaceful cooperation in space.

The gain is science. scientific samples that will not be shared with other nations will undoubltably be taken from Mars. The best way is not to send robots or tourists but to have a manned permanent presence on the planet Mars. A robot cannot compare to a couple of humans who can take ten tonnes of samples and put them on an unmanned sample return vehicle.

The gain is territory. I have repeatedly said that a terraformed Mars can support a billion people.

The gain is survival of Civilization. China is tooling up for the lext level of technological civilization with over thirty new nuclear reactors in the works to power it. With ten million Chinese on Mars, you can guarantee that their civilization will survive even if the Earth does not.

They are looking so far ahead, that there is no you in their future - one where security council membership is based on the population of one's nation -anyone with less than a billion people need not apply.

That is why China will get there first - alone, perhaps the only nation to go to Mars to stay. People who dont ask "whats in it for me?" rather, "Whats in it for us?" and they will have earned every bit of it.

That why India will probably be the next space superpower after China.

I suppose you should be happy that they are yet to cut a deal with Japan and the Koreas to build a series of Super Dykes so they can drain the seas of Japan and China and reclaim the land for agricultural expansion and territory.

What would be the Gain? Everything. Farm land to support another five hundred million, Arcaeological sites now drowned beneath two hundred metres of ocean.

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#52 2005-07-25 01:56:34

Yang Liwei Rocket
Member
Registered: 2004-03-03
Posts: 993

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Quite frankly China wants Tiawan


Blah Blah Tiawan.... bloody yap yap, Taipei natter natter... bla bla

I love how these posts get so far off topic that they end up looking nothing like the original thread
I saw one groups of posts on Europe's Aurora/Smart1 plans and Mars mission and it only turned into a rant about Spanish and Germanys culture, Jihad in Madrid, UK Euro welfare, Arabs entering Europe....
...only 10 % of the tread was about the ESA plans for Mars.

maybe all these treads should be moved to free-chat :?

So here's what I think of it, if there was anyone that wanted to attack Taiwan it would have been done under the kind of dicatorship that Mao had set, back then General Chiang kai shek was not a man Mao liked they were close mindest to do it. recent regime had a limiting factor on working rights and Chinese commercialism and consumerism which is advantageous for the USA in many ways so wouldn´t China invading Taiwan be like the US invading Hawaii, or Britain invading the Falklands, except China hasn't been a militray power flexing its might didn't invade Iraq or send people of to Camp X-ray ?
The whole Taiwan card is totally over-played it is just hot-air form old school Chinese Mao loving freaks, American Neo-Cons and Taiwanese right wingers that had Taipei oppressed under martial law Asian conflict could come from anywhere but most likely where one least expects it, Taiwan versus the Japanese over terrorial dispute and fishermen only a few weeks ago they were sending warships to greet each other thorugh the barrel of a gun, India versus Pakistan can occur they have fought three major wars in the past, conflict in Burma/Myanmar spreading, or Japan versus Russia over history and island disputes, trouble from Religious nuts in Indonesia,  former Soviet areas can be trouble, Sri Lanka trouble going to other areas.
Powell's Comments in China had already Riled Taiwan , Colin Powell spoke of eventual " reunification " a word that sends rightwing supporters of Taiwan's independence up the wall and Bush had called the Taiwanese separitist ' insects ' try to fight an elephant,  Armitage had said the "peaceful rising of China" will most likely be the most important event  and the US is not required to defend Taiwan. The mainland Chinese rants and Taiwan rubbish will continue
this rhetoric isn't new, just sabre-rattling.


'first steps are not for cheap, think about it...
did China build a great Wall in a day ?' ( Y L R newmars forum member )

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#53 2005-07-25 06:08:39

srmeaney
Member
From: 18 tiwi gdns rd, TIWI NT 0810
Registered: 2005-03-18
Posts: 976

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Fine.

China will get there first because they have the right stuff.


The End.

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#54 2005-07-25 07:13:19

Grypd
Member
From: Scotland, Europe
Registered: 2004-06-07
Posts: 1,863

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Beligerence over Taiwan is something that has been occuring since the Chinese Nationalists fled to the Island. The only difference is that the rhetoric coming from China over the Taiwnese considering a formal declaration of independence and the Chinese military build up can only give the impression of a non diplomatic way of Taiwan rejoining the greater China is the idea considered.

Still back to China in space, Can China do it of course certainly the possibility of the Chinese getting there first is is a high possibility especially with there growing knowledge and confidence in space. But like the western and Russian agencies it will take a reduction in cost of being able to operate or a lot of space infrastructure being in position to allow this to function.


Chan eil mi aig a bheil ùidh ann an gleidheadh an status quo; Tha mi airson cur às e.

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#55 2005-07-25 07:59:15

Martin_Tristar
Member
From: Earth, Region : Australia
Registered: 2004-12-07
Posts: 305

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

I will say this, no government should have the power to claim territory, in space and the future is for the human race , not the chinese sub-species or the United States sub-species or the European sub-species but for the whole human species, that is why we shouldn't have spacecrafts  badged by a country. Countries should only apply on earth ( third rock from the sun) and nowhere else in space, it should be a earth space force representing all of humanity and centrally controlled by the security council of the united nations (the forerunner to the United Earth Government ) that has all the major world powers.

Think of these Questions :

1. I am a citizen of earth first ?  yes  /  No

2. Then you are a resident of our country ? yes / no

If you answered " YES " then you believe in a combined earth and the future for humanity on earth and in space , BUT if you answered " NO " then you are have a small mind and low opinion of humanities' future.

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#56 2005-07-25 09:14:30

Rxke
Member
From: Belgium
Registered: 2003-11-03
Posts: 3,658

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

China would have to build small reactors from scratch too, and they have zero experience with this.

Pebble bed reactors look to scale well, and they're going to be big in China, the coming years. Might be interesting to follow that...
But overall, they're indeed nowhere close to a Mars mission.


ExoMars' launcher's 2nd stage is probably en route to Mars. Unsterilised... yikes

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#57 2005-08-06 17:38:07

srmeaney
Member
From: 18 tiwi gdns rd, TIWI NT 0810
Registered: 2005-03-18
Posts: 976

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Powell's Comments in China had already Riled Taiwan , Colin Powell spoke of eventual " reunification " a word that sends rightwing supporters of Taiwan's independence up the wall and Bush had called the Taiwanese separitist ' insects ' try to fight an elephant, Armitage had said the "peaceful rising of China" will most likely be the most important event and the US is not required to defend Taiwan.

Criticising the idea that the the mountain should bow before the wind. The wind blows forever, not even a mountain can withstand that.

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#58 2005-08-09 04:16:38

Reptoid
Member
Registered: 2005-07-28
Posts: 7

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Think of these Questions :

1. I am a citizen of earth first ? yes / No

No

2. Then you are a resident of our country ? yes / no

No

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#59 2005-08-10 04:14:26

Tb0ne
Member
From: Vancouver, British Columbia, C
Registered: 2005-01-30
Posts: 15

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

"The first Communist planet"

This isn't the Cold War, that's just not going to happen. Being born in the mid eighties and missing out on everything but the tail end of the Cold War I guess might go part way to explaining why I disagree.

China has long since abandoned hardcore communism and even today you could argue they are further distancing themselves from communism.

""Black cat or white cat: If it can catch mice, it's a good cat.""

I think that quote/proverb maybe have been applied to their economy.

In the time frame we are talking about, with the first landings taking place between 2020-2040 I doubt a country will be left on Earth that would try and claim Mars for Communism (North Korea, Cuba included). I'd be more worried about a Theocracy (Christian, Muslim, or a Cult of some sort) claiming it the name of God/Gods/Allah/Xenu.

As for Taiwan, I hope they arn't invaded, but I've never really heard a reason why they shouldn't be a part of China. Basically Chinese has to find a way to convince Taiwan to join legally and without armed conflict and even if it came to that I don't see why a World War III (also known as the apocalypse) should be started over it?

I have to hope that international leaders arn't that stupid.

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#60 2005-08-10 09:17:05

GCNRevenger
Member
From: Earth
Registered: 2003-10-14
Posts: 6,056

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Tb0ne wrote:

As for Taiwan, I hope they arn't invaded, but I've never really heard a reason why they shouldn't be a part of China. Basically Chinese has to find a way to convince Taiwan to join legally and without armed conflict and even if it came to that I don't see why a World War III (also known as the apocalypse) should be started over it?

I have to hope that international leaders arn't that stupid.

*Cough* Excuse me? "...a reason why they shouldn't be a part of China?"

Because the Taiwanese don't want to!!!

THAT is reason enough... If China was so poisoned by pride, nationalism, or other reason to try and invade Taiwan, that would be a direct attack on a free, democratic country in a war of naked, evil aggression. We would be obligated as a matter of friendship, law, and principle that their state remain free. We defended Kuait from Saddam, we must defend Taiwan too. If China threatens us with nuclear war over it, then we should threaten right back.

China has to do nothing, if they are unable to convince the Taiwanese to peacefully rejoin the mainland, then thats just too bad, Taiwan would then remain an independant, soverign, and free state as it has been for so long.

Replace "Taiwan" with "Japan" and "China" with the DPRK... would we defend Japan? Of course we would... Taiwan is our ally too.


"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw

The glass is at 50% of capacity

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#61 2005-08-10 18:56:22

srmeaney
Member
From: 18 tiwi gdns rd, TIWI NT 0810
Registered: 2005-03-18
Posts: 976

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

THAT is reason enough... If China was so poisoned by pride, nationalism, or other reason to try and invade Taiwan, that would be a direct attack on a free, democratic country in a war of naked, evil aggression. We would be obligated as a matter of friendship, law, and principle that their state remain free. We defended Kuait from Saddam, we must defend Taiwan too. If China threatens us with nuclear war over it, then we should threaten right back.

Kinda like what will happen when China goes to the rescue of that little central american country with the canal that runs through it or that other little sugar cane producing state off florida that no-one recognises.

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#62 2005-08-10 19:35:03

GCNRevenger
Member
From: Earth
Registered: 2003-10-14
Posts: 6,056

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

You wouldn't happen to be equating a free and democratic state like Taiwan to the dictatorial communist hell like Cuba would you? That would be pretty stupid.


"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw

The glass is at 50% of capacity

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#63 2005-08-11 03:22:37

srmeaney
Member
From: 18 tiwi gdns rd, TIWI NT 0810
Registered: 2005-03-18
Posts: 976

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

You wouldn't happen to be equating a free and democratic state like Taiwan to the dictatorial communist hell like Cuba would you? That would be pretty stupid.

No, I'm equating the sovereign state of Cuba with the Sovereign State of Taiwan.

If I was equating the Communist hell like Cuba with a similar regime, that would be Florida.

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#64 2005-08-11 06:34:06

GCNRevenger
Member
From: Earth
Registered: 2003-10-14
Posts: 6,056

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Oppressive dictatorships do not have the right to exsist nor should be reguarded as soverign states, as they inherintly do not meet the minimum human standards of personal & public freedom. They are by their nature an afront to human rights.


"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw

The glass is at 50% of capacity

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#65 2005-08-11 07:13:13

srmeaney
Member
From: 18 tiwi gdns rd, TIWI NT 0810
Registered: 2005-03-18
Posts: 976

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Oppressive dictatorships do not have the right to exsist nor should be reguarded as soverign states, as they inherintly do not meet the minimum human standards of personal & public freedom. They are by their nature an afront to human rights.

You agree then that we should take out Jeb and rescue the folks in Florida from Tyranny and despotism.

I see New York is cutting unemployment to homeless people fifty dollars a month and a crappy hotel room to end homelessness...At least the tourists will no longer be offended by the smell.

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#66 2005-08-12 22:28:01

Commodore
Member
From: Upstate NY, USA
Registered: 2004-07-25
Posts: 1,021

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Oppressive dictatorships do not have the right to exsist nor should be reguarded as soverign states, as they inherintly do not meet the minimum human standards of personal & public freedom. They are by their nature an afront to human rights.

You agree then that we should take out Jeb and rescue the folks in Florida from Tyranny and despotism.

The only tyranical thing Jeb has done is to try to force life on someone who was already dead.


"Yes, I was going to give this astronaut selection my best shot, I was determined when the NASA proctologist looked up my ass, he would see pipes so dazzling he would ask the nurse to get his sunglasses."
---Shuttle Astronaut Mike Mullane

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#67 2005-08-12 22:31:57

Commodore
Member
From: Upstate NY, USA
Registered: 2004-07-25
Posts: 1,021

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

The Chinese are getting ambitious.

Chinese astronauts onboard the Shenzhou-7 spaceship, which is preliminarily scheduled to blast off in 2007 will hopefully perform first space walk, revealed the national space hero Yang Liwei at the Exhibition of China's Manned Space flight opened Aug 11 in Fuzhou, capital of east China's Fujian Province.

According to Yang, Shenzhou-6 spaceship will be launched in this autumn. Unlike Shenzhou-5, shenzhou-6 will carry more than one astronaut and stay in space for more than one day. Therefore its requirements for all system are stricter. Its environment control system and life guarantee system are more complex than that of Shenzhou-5. The project is progressing smoothly, but the astronauts onboard have not been confirmed.

What are Shenzhou-6 and Shenzhou-7 like? Yang said every spaceship of China makes progress on the basis of its predecessors.

After the launch of Shenzhou-6, Chinese astronauts onboard Shenzhou-7 to be launched in 2007 will perform space walk for the first time. Following that the Shenzhou-9 will dock with the orbital cabin left by Shenzhou-8 for the first time.

By People's Daily Online

At this rate its going to be a foot race to moon.


"Yes, I was going to give this astronaut selection my best shot, I was determined when the NASA proctologist looked up my ass, he would see pipes so dazzling he would ask the nurse to get his sunglasses."
---Shuttle Astronaut Mike Mullane

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#68 2005-08-12 22:48:55

Yang Liwei Rocket
Member
Registered: 2004-03-03
Posts: 993

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

You wouldn't happen to be equating a free and democratic state like Taiwan to the dictatorial communist hell like Cuba would you? That would be pretty stupid.

No, I'm equating the sovereign state of Cuba with the Sovereign State of Taiwan.

If I was equating the Communist hell like Cuba with a similar regime, that would be Florida.

just goes to show some of the ranting loonies clearly don't know squat about Taiwan nor have they ever set foot in the dump know as Taipei

Taiwan is alright, check it out for yourself
but it ain't heaven on Earth unlike some of the US Neo-Cons would tell you

its somewhat better than mainland China with a slightly better standard of living because they didn't have to go through all the rubbish that Mao's dictatorship inflicted on the Mainland

Taiwan and Chiang and the KMT set it self up by the massacre of about 45-55 thousand socialst or leftists to ensure they would get a strong foothold in Taipei
the Capital city is kind of a dump, not the best place to live and was oppressed under martial law and had little freedom unlike what the Neo-Cons would tell you
Powell's Comments in China had already Riled Taiwan
There is now the one-China policy but this had even started in Nixon's days
Armitage had said the "peaceful rising of China" will most likely be the most important event and the US is not required to defend Taiwan.
Even Hollywood Jackie-Chan films are banned in Taiwan because of the positive image the movies give HongKong


My response to most Taiwan topics will be simply
Blah Blah Tiawan.... bloody yap yap, Taipei natter natter... bla bla
if I want to discuss Iraq torture, Maoism, the US bombing of El Salvador, China's communist nonsense,  Camp Xray and amnesty International's report on  guantanamo and all the other misery around the globe I would spend my time in free-chat
the Taiwan rubbish

it is a worthless discussion
and has little to do with China's aerospace technology, Chinese Lunar goals, or Shenzhou launcher designs.


'first steps are not for cheap, think about it...
did China build a great Wall in a day ?' ( Y L R newmars forum member )

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#69 2005-08-13 05:38:52

srmeaney
Member
From: 18 tiwi gdns rd, TIWI NT 0810
Registered: 2005-03-18
Posts: 976

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Good Point!

So when is the first Shenzhou likely to be ready to dock with the ISS?

I'm betting Shenzhou-14.

Worse Case Scenario: China Builds their own Space Station one Shenzhou vehicle at a time.

In that case China to Mars on their own, to colonize (2 crew one way) by 2012AD...

The folks in Washington who go by the motto "better dead than red" will be freaking out! Maybe they will even kill a few NASA Astronauts trying to compete with a superior power!

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#70 2005-08-14 14:00:25

Grypd
Member
From: Scotland, Europe
Registered: 2004-06-07
Posts: 1,863

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

I suspect the Chinese space program is not what is causeing the USA concern. The Chinese are renovating an ex Soviet Aircraft Carrier. The political meaning for this is obvious. To dominate the area around China and this includes the islands of Taiwan and even Japan aircraft from mainland China is all that is needed but an aircraft carrier only is for the use of force presentation. This will give China a chance to increase its prescence in the Pacific. This is not a great concern unless China begins to build its own indigenous fleet of Carriers where this ex soviet one will give them experience in such operations.

And as a further aside the Chinese PRN have already built there own class of anti aircraft/missile aegis class of cruisers. And certainly it has built or given orders to build more than is necassary to protect the current PRN's naval strength.


Chan eil mi aig a bheil ùidh ann an gleidheadh an status quo; Tha mi airson cur às e.

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#71 2005-08-14 23:36:34

srmeaney
Member
From: 18 tiwi gdns rd, TIWI NT 0810
Registered: 2005-03-18
Posts: 976

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

I suspect the Chinese space program is not what is causeing the USA concern. The Chinese are renovating an ex Soviet Aircraft Carrier. The political meaning for this is obvious. To dominate the area around China and this includes the islands of Taiwan and even Japan aircraft from mainland China is all that is needed but an aircraft carrier only is for the use of force presentation. This will give China a chance to increase its prescence in the Pacific. This is not a great concern unless China begins to build its own indigenous fleet of Carriers where this ex soviet one will give them experience in such operations.

You never know, perhaps China intends to stuff the authority of the Security Council down everyones throat... The USA which has over the past fourty years, trained, financed, and armed terrorists may find the UN no longer accepts or tolerates independent government.

Back to China in space. Who here thinks that China will build its own Space Station and go it alone to Mars?

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#72 2005-08-14 23:58:12

idiom
Member
From: New Zealand
Registered: 2004-04-21
Posts: 312

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

It would need a champion with a lot of engineering ability and a lot of political tact and clout similar to Koroleyev or Von Braun.

And the have to achieve rendevous and soft land a probe somewhere before 2010 to have a shot at a race.

___________________

For everybody who believes in the cost factor, what would be your estimate of the development cost of the Commanche Stealth Helicopter?

Some New Zealand engineers just finished their stealth chopper (UAV) for $40 million Stealth Chopper


Come on to the Future

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#73 2005-08-15 03:45:46

srmeaney
Member
From: 18 tiwi gdns rd, TIWI NT 0810
Registered: 2005-03-18
Posts: 976

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Now back to China in Space:

It would need a champion with a lot of engineering ability and a lot of political tact and clout similar to Koroleyev or Von Braun.

  Are we talking political or science oriented leader? In such a communist state, would the Government of China not pursue these technological efforts without some interest in: the scientific returns of Samples from alternate (non-terrestrial) genetic structures, or  the propaganda and territorial returns of having its citizens colonize Mars First (and perhaps alone)?

If NASA has no interest in sending its people one way to stay, and current international laws prohibit the plunder of resources genetic and otherwise of a sovereign state or territory without the consent of the citizens of that state or territory all China need do is get there first and declare planetary territorial rights, and the race to Mars is over.

If international cooperation fell apart in such a Manor, the USA would have to rush to the moon permanently to reinstate colonization territorial rights just to keep it out of China's territorial expanse...

Indeed, The aftermath would be terrible. A Human presence free of Government Regimes could well find itself restricted to man made space habitats, and only existing at the whim of Super powers with the new resources of territorial plunder.

The Question is this: How long after China takes Mars as its own, will the Space Habitat Colonies of enlightened and free humanity have before Some government warlord rams a breaching pod loaded with Marines through the hull and declares territorial dominion?

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#74 2005-08-16 16:01:13

Grypd
Member
From: Scotland, Europe
Registered: 2004-06-07
Posts: 1,863

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Well the Chinese plan to do there first Lunar probe mission in about 2011 and with the intention of an actual robotic landing and sample return about 2017.

Xinhua news article

I would have thought that China could have done missions of this caliber a lot faster than it plans to do so. Especially with the equipment transfers it has recieved from the Russians and the general increase in technology it is getting. This indicates that there is a lot less funds available than we have previously assumed especially after we remember that the Chinese with there lower base costs can stretch there program a lot.

So Red China on Red Mars not so much of a threat now.


Chan eil mi aig a bheil ùidh ann an gleidheadh an status quo; Tha mi airson cur às e.

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#75 2005-08-16 19:37:10

srmeaney
Member
From: 18 tiwi gdns rd, TIWI NT 0810
Registered: 2005-03-18
Posts: 976

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

So Red China on Red Mars not so much of a threat now.

You cant possibly draw that conclusion. The point of an unmanned Sample Vehicle is so you can send people on some other mission. If they have decided the moon is just an unmanned task, The colonization of Mars before any one else, could well be the entire focus of the Chinese Space Program.

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