Critical Mass - Self Sufficient Industry

John Creighton · 2004-06-15 12:55:45

I will define the critical mass as the minimum mass of imports (e.g. people machines, tools, food,etc) to mars so that the industry on mars is diverse, self sufficient and able to expand independently of imports. Clearly with nano technology maybe a milligram of mass would be sufficient. This discussion will focus on trying to reduce the critical mass without using nano technology.

John Creighton · 2004-06-15 13:02:50

This first thing I will bring up is a machine shop. There advantage is the can construct a diverse amount of parts that can be used for other industry. A Machine should will require as a minimum a lathe and a milling machine. The milling machines are able to etch out any part from a piece of steel by falling a computer program. The machine shop will need some way of getting the parts to the machine. This would imply either a person or a robot. I don’t think this is too difficult a job for a robot, because it just needs to find a piece of steel the right size. Say the lathe is one tone and the milling machine is 10 tone. That gets us to 11 tones plus what ever industry is needed to feed the machine shop with its metal. Come to think of it do we really need the lathe?

The big problem of doing this remotely is having enough safe guards in place that the milling machine doesn’t break. Keep in mind precision machinist are well trained and make over 80 thousand dollars a year. They do more then just programming. The are responsible, for quality control, tacking measurements with micrometers, finishing the piece (sanding and deburring), setting up the machine, making sure they stop it in time if something goes wrong, etc., etc., etc. At over 80 thousand a year one might think that if they could be easily replaced by machines they would. Unless of course the machines they are using are worth much more then there salary. In that case it may be better to have a human in control. Surprisingly enough, they are still more reliable.

John Creighton · 2004-06-15 13:27:54

One you have am machine show the machine shop can make molds for factories. Some molds could be for food. Other molds might be for factories that have injection molding. For in junction molding all need pretty much is a barrel, with a screw going through is and heaters. The controller could be a simple analog feed back controller (e.g. P.I.D). For a better quality plastic a model predictive controller may be desired. However model predictive controllers are usually more complex and usually implemented in software.

Rxke · 2004-06-15 15:30:03

C.N.C. shop with some spare robot arms, producing LEGO style-building blocks (the LEGO TECHNIC variety...)
Assembled on a programmable 'line' (cfr car factory)
you can build a bulldozer, rover, shelter... with standardized stuff, not very efficient, but simple. And easy to repair, just mill/cast/whatever another standard piece. Upload new designs from Earth as you go.
It is fairly simple to build electric motors, all you need is copper-wire and cylinders... Power? either (inefficient) solar or methane/ox combustion, or batteries, charged by windmills...
All stuff you can build using fairly standard C.N.C. tech/ LEGO...

primitive non-pressure cast iron (from blueberries?) is as good as aluminium on Mars (gravity) so, you could use bulldozers to collect raw materials, ... (refinery... how? Electric?) and cast rough beams you finish into building blocks in the shop. Add some atmospheric refineries for volatiles, combustion stuff...
The shop will wear out eventually, or run out of ceramic cutting blades etc, but that could be solved, i guess... Send up spares etc.

Computers? look at the old solid core memory stuff etc, you can build (although big and rather primitive) computers with macrostuff pretty easily...

It is possible. It would be slow nd inefficient, compared to earth standards, but you can build useful stuff that way.

MarsDog · 2004-06-15 16:18:34

You would have design a new industry of Mars habitation construction. Prototype it on Earth, in a desert, and final test it under Martian atmospheric conditions.
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Need to manufacture lead glass, small beams, steel plates, concrete, glue, nuts & bolts, everything to build a small greenhouse, apartment building complex.
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It has all been done under Earth conditions, just need to organize and tweak it for Mars.
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Mars Engineering courses next ?

Rxke · 2004-06-16 00:17:43

You would have design a new industry of Mars habitation construction. Prototype it on Earth, in a desert,

... and the Antarctic, through winter.
Cold-weather engineering is a dog.

smurf975 · 2004-06-16 04:15:40

It looks like that NASA already considered this plan in 1980

Here a link to http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/selfRepNASA.html]an article about the NASA report and this link http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/selfRepNASA.html]contains portions of the final report.

The introduction of the final report:

What follows is a portion of the final report of
a NASA summer study, conducted in 1980 by request of newly-
elected President Jimmy Carter at a cost of 11.7 million dollars.
The result of the study was a realistic proposal for a self-replicating
automated lunar factory system, capable of exponentially
increasing productive capacity and, in the long run,
exploration of the entire galaxy within a reasonable
timeframe. Unfortunately, the proposal was quietly declined
with barely a ripple in the press.
What was once concievable with 1980's technology
is now even more practical today. Even if you're just skimming
through this document, the potential of this proposed system
is undeniable. Please enjoy.

Some quotes from the report:

If the construction of a replicating growing lunar factory was purely a matter of machine parts assembly, then the length of the replication program could be determined by the necessity to locate various required parts in the environment and then to specify and execute the proper placement of each part to construct the desired system (Heiserman, 1976). However, it is likely the reproductive process will be vastly more complicated than this, since it is not likely that all parts can be supplied "free" from Earth. If the lunar factory must begin, not with completed machines or parts, but rather with a raw lunar soil substrate, the task quickly becomes many orders more difficult - though not impossible.

An engineering demonstration project can be initiated immediately, to begin with simple replication of robot assembler by robot assembler from supplied parts, and proceeding in phased steps to full reproduction of a complete machine processing or factory system by another machine processing system, supplied, ultimately, only with raw materials.

The raw materials of the lunar surface, and the materials processing techniques available in a lunar environment, are probably sufficient to support an automated lunar manufacturing facility capable of self-replication and growth.

The virtually cost-free expansion of mining, processing, and manufacturing capacity, once an initial investment is made in an autonomous SRS, makes possible the commercial utilization of the abundant energy and mineral resources of the Moon for the benefit of all mankind.

The industry of the U.S. is also at a critical juncture in its evolution. If it is to compete adequately in the world marketplace, significant increases in productivity are required. Present production methods have reached a level of maturity such that sufficiently large gains in productivity through further refinement of present-day technologies are unlikely to be realized. The only known solution is massive automation such as is now being applied in other industrialized countries, notably Japan and Germany.

The building of the automated factories would greatly enhance the US's economic strenght by applying the lessons to US based factories.

In contrast to the terrestrial case, autonomous or symbiotic SRS are ideally suited to space applications. In space there is room for such systems to multiply and grow. In fact the exponentially expanding, self-replicating factory is the most promising option for economically viable exploration and utilization of space beyond the near-Earth environment. The bootstrapping effect of self-replication permits the utilization of vast quantities of extraterrestrial materials with only a modest initial investment of terrestrial materials.

It is possible to achieve qualitative materials closure (see sec. 5.3.6) - complete material self-sufficiency within the Lunar Manufacturing Facility (LMF) - by making certain that chemical processing machines are able to produce all of the 84 elements commonly used in industry in the United States and the global economy (Freitas, 1980). However, such a complete processing capability implies unacceptably long replication times T (on the order of 100-1000 years), because many of the elements are so rare in the lunar or asteroidal substrate that a vast quantity of raw soil must be processed to obtain even small amounts of them. By eliminating the need for many of these exotic elements in the SRS design, replication times can be cut by as much as three orders of magnitude with current or foreseeable materials processing technologies.

There are three ways to realize this idea/project:

Top-Down Approach
The top-down approach consists first of carefully defining the overall problem, then decomposing that problem into simpler subproblems. These subproblems are, in turn, decomposed into sub-subproblems, and so on. The process continues, forming a lattice structure whose lowest tier nodes are low-level problems which are readily soluble.

This is for people that are waiting for more advanced technolgies before any major project should start.

Bottom-Up Approach
The bottom-up approach consists of supporting basic and applied fields related to the desired goal. Science and technology normally advance in a bottom-up fashion. Researchers build on the work of their predecessors. At any given time the problems which are soluble and present research prospects are defined by previous research which has been done and by the supporting technology which is currently available. Inventions and breakthroughs are notoriously hard to schedule in advance.

This is more the way I like it.

Middle-out Approach
The recommended middle-out approach consists of three stages. Briefly, in stage 1 a technology feasibility demonstration of a rudimentary self-replicating system is performed. In stage 2, stage 1 is further refined in a top-down manner to produce a less rudimentary system which operates in a less structured environment. Stage 3 consists of starting at stage 1 and doing a bottom-up synthesis of a more complex SRS.

And this the best way and also what other posters were thinking of when saying lets test it in Antartica then ship it to space.

There are two distinct classes of fabrication production machines in any general-product self-replicating system parts or "bulk" fabrication and electronics or microcircuit fabrication. Appendix 5F is concerned exclusively with LMF subsystems required for bulk manufacturing. Microelectronics production in space manufacturing facilities is considered in section 4.4.3 and is the subject of Zachary (1981); estimated mass of this component of the original LMF seed is 7000 kg, with a power draw of perhaps 20 kW to operate the necessary machinery

Ooh that sucks, the part (electronics plant) I'm interested in most is not included. I think it also interested you.

But wait doing a thorough google brought me to the same but complete at wikipedia. You can find it http://sources.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advan … tents]here

Key components in computer systems include integrated circuits (ICs), capacitors, resistors, printed circuit (PC) boards, and wire. Fabrication capability in these five critical areas will permit most other necessary components to be produced as well. For instance, an IC fabrication facility could manufacture at least some varieties of transistors, diodes (rectifiers, small-signal, and zener), varactors, thyristors, silicon-controlled rectifiers (SCRs), and others. It would, however, have difficulty producing light-emitting diodes (LEDs) due to the scarcity of gallium and arsenic on the Moon.

Integrated circuits. Conventional wafer fabrication techniques (Oldham, 1977) are, for the most part, not feasible in a lunar-supplied Space Manufacturing Facility (SMF). On the other hand, the vacuum of space greatly enhances the applicability of several techniques which are at or beyond the current terrestrial state-of-the-art.

A picture to help you imagine what it a plant would look like:

Basically the NASA 1980 report is saying it its possible with about 99% independence of Earth supplies. However they were planning for the moon. If you would build three of these space manufacturing facilities, that is one on the moon, the other in the asteroid belt and the last on Mars. I think you could have 100% Earth supplies independence. And you need not to build three SMF's on Earth just use the original NASA plan for the moon and have it build the two others using Moon resources.

When the two others are at place and working you can upgrade the systems that needed to be simple due to lack of certain elements. And of course now ship elements that are lacking at one SMF to help it.

Well the report is very interesting I will skim some more throug it.

Rxke · 2004-06-16 04:59:36

Interesting read NASA has just released a follow-up report on this, (the so-called summer study) discussed in http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=3053]this topic.
It looks like nano, it isn't, you can do this macro-scale too. Download the .pdf, lots of interesting links in the footnotes.

What i like about today's tech: you can save a lot of bucks, just by modeling on a computer, and tweak your designs and ides to see houw they'd work out.

smurf975 · 2004-06-16 09:51:20

Computers? look at the old solid core memory stuff etc, you can build (although big and rather primitive) computers with macrostuff pretty easily...
It is possible. It would be slow nd inefficient, compared to earth standards, but you can build useful stuff that way.

The macro level machines are not the problem as microchips are made by using chemicals, lasers and other methods. I have seen images of a piece of silicon (semiconductor) in which a laser etches a micro/nano transistor. See this page http://articles.roshd.ir/articles_folde … ks.htm]How EUV chipmaking works. A quote from that page:

The current process used to pack more and more transistors onto a chip is called deep-ultraviolet lithography, which is a photography-like technique that focuses light through lenses to carve circuit patterns on silicon wafers.
Lithography is akin to photography in that it uses light to transfer images onto a substrate. In the case of a camera, the substrate is film. Silicon is the traditional substrate used in chipmaking. To create the integrated circuit design that's on a microprocessor, light is directed onto a mask. A mask is like a stencil of the circuit pattern. The light shines through the mask and then through a series of optical lenses that shrink the image down. This small image is then projected onto a silicon, or semiconductor, wafer.
The wafer is covered with a light-sensitive, liquid plastic called photoresist. The mask is placed over the wafer, and when light shines through the mask and hits the silicon wafer, it hardens the photoresist that isn't covered by the mask. The photoresist that is not exposed to light remains somewhat gooey and is chemically washed away, leaving only the hardened photoresist and exposed silicon wafer.
The key to creating more powerful microprocessors is the size of the light's wavelength. The smaller the wavelength, the more transistors can be etched onto the silicon wafer. More transistors equals a more powerful, faster microprocessor. That's the big reason why an Intel Pentium 4 processor, which has 42-million transistors, is faster than the Pentium 3, which has 28-million transistors.

But as the report said the problem would be gathering the materials needed that make up a microchip. Not the process building one. At least now it wouldn't be anymore.

And don't think because the machines are macro technology they can only do bulky work. They can be like bulldozers or as fine as a dentists tools or even finer. And when using lasers and chemicals (and many other techniques) there is no limit in how small you can build. As tomorrows nano-machines will be build by todays macro-machines. Well you can't build nano-machines by hand can you!?

To add, basically you will build a machines that builds a smaller and finer machine that will build a smaller and finer machine until you hit the molecule level and then, well we will see.

Having an Earth supplies, resources and energy indepenent factory will allow you to experiment which such ideas without worrying about how much it will cost you.

Rxke · 2004-06-16 10:15:37

yup about the fairly straightforward *principles* behind IC production, but it needs a lot of external stuff in real-life, a cleanroom for instance.

(well, i guess you could build a small one, anyway. I'm nitpicking, kinda, i just wanted to point out it doesn't all have to be 21st C hitech. We've been building robots since the 60's. )

Soooo... Any mentioning of all this in the new space-initiative? It looks feasible, and tremendeously promising, so they'd be stupid to let the new General Dynamics report gather dust...

John Creighton · 2004-06-16 11:06:30

I think if you lie on big old fashion computers you are fairly limited on what you can do. All robots intelligently controlled would have to be controlled remotely. Moreover the computers would be massive and take a long time to construct.

smurf975 · 2004-06-16 11:33:53

All robots intelligently controlled would have to be controlled remotely. Moreover the computers would be massive and take a long time to construct.

I don't understand why you need the robots to be able to make intelligent decisions.

John Creighton · 2004-06-16 11:38:53

All robots intelligently controlled would have to be controlled remotely. Moreover the computers would be massive and take a long time to construct.
I don't understand why you need the robots to be able to make intelligent decisions.

It is simply a matter of cost. If the robots can’t operate somewhat autonomously this means, more labor costs to operate them and more infrastructure cost for the communication. As the number of robots grows, through hopefully self replication the problem becomes more exasperated. Maybe the first few robots could be tellaoperated but this will prove inadequate for truely exponential growth.

smurf975 · 2004-06-16 11:42:27

Why would they need to be able to act somewhat autonomously?

I mean the enverioment they are working in is 100% explored. They have programmed tasks and thats it. They should not encouter unknown situations except for defects.

smurf975 · 2004-06-16 11:45:53

It is simply a matter of cost. If the robots can’t operate somewhat autonomously this means, more labor costs to operate them and more infrastructure cost for the communication. As the number of robots grows, through hopefully self replication the problem becomes more exasperated. Maybe the first few robots could be tellaoperated but this will prove inadequate for truely exponential growth.

The Mariner and the Russian Venus explorers did just fine without Pentium chips. And so did a lot of other space explorers (they are robots at the end)

About SMF (space manufacturing facilities) which robots need to be controlled intelligently? As far as I can think of the only ones that need some kind of AI are the ones working outside the factory or all those that are mobile. And only a very, very small number of the robots need to be mobile.

All the static robots (the ones that actually build) will just follow a set of programmed steps (punch card technology), which can be updated/changed by a human from any place.

And even so a lot of the mobile robots can be dumb to. For instance the resource transporters the ones that bring in the resources to the factory. They just need to follow a path that is surrounded by beacons and a route known to be save and cleared / flattened of any unknown objects. Then a crane robot will detect if a resource robot is at its location (using sensors) and will put lunar/Martian soil into the resource/truck robot. Sensors will detect when the resource truck is full. Again this is all using punch card level technology (and sensors are as old as punch card, well even older).

I'm not saying it’s easy but its doable

John Creighton · 2004-06-16 11:47:51

Why would they need to be able to act somewhat autonomously?
I mean the enverioment they are working in is 100% explored. They have programmed tasks and thats it. They should not encouter unknown situations except for defects.

How will they know what tool or what part to use? Selecting the right tool or part from a box in a real factory environment is a much more difficult task then you may think. This is even true for some of the best intelligent machines here on earth. How will they decide to go from point a to point b? How will they avoid other robots coming in there direction? Even changing the tool bit could be a fairly difficult task for a robot. This is assuming they even have the manual dexterity or strength.

smurf975 · 2004-06-16 11:48:14

And its not my goal to make a human indepenent SMF but an Earth money and resources independent SMF.

John Creighton · 2004-06-16 12:13:28

All, you have to do is click your heels together three times and say, I want to go to mars, I want to go to mars, I want to go to mars.

smurf975 · 2004-06-16 12:14:59

How will they know what tool or what part to use?

They don't have to know anything. They just need to follow steps that the punch cards tell them to.

I'm not thinking of a robot nation you know, they are just automated tools.

The robots don't think about what tools to use they just follow a sequence of steps that is programmed. There might be a bug but the program is updatable.

Selecting the right tool or part from a box in a real factory environment is a much more difficult task then you may think.

They select nothing they just do as they are programmed to do.

best intelligent machines here on earth

I don't know of any intelligent machines on Earth that works in manufacturing. And intelligent is perhaps a bad way of describing. They may have a more complex program logic but they are not smarter. As far as I know there is no program at this time that is able to think. It just follows a step of instructions. It’s called IF THEN ELSE loops. The more IF THEN ELSE loops it may look smarter but it isn’t. It works for the Mars rovers to have some AI but they work in unknown territory.

How will they decide to go from point a to point b?

They don’t decide, it’s programmed for them to do so.

How will they avoid other robots coming in there direction?

Two-way roads. But then what would they do if a robot is stuck on the middle of the road?

That is logic that can be handled by a program routine that follows certain steps on how to avoid obstacles. Or much easier would be to make a two-way road but with on each lane an escape path to avoid stuck trucks. Like you have on highways when you have car troubles. This is logic that you could do on the http://www.apple-history.com/frames/bod … l=aI]first apple computer, which is from 1976. But I think you could do with less.

Rxke · 2004-06-16 12:24:43

you can do that with 9 transistors. No programming complex stuff.

BEAMbots do it with less.

'Choosing' tools is a no-brainer. Each tool fits in a predetermined slot in a 'toolholder'. To use tool A (if 'empty-handed') go to location A. Latch.To use B, go to A, unlatch, go to B, latch etc.

That's the way it works today with C.N.C. controlled shops. Works perfectly.

smurf975 · 2004-06-16 12:25:53

All, you have to do is click your heels together three times and say, I want to go to mars, I want to go to mars, I want to go to mars.

You should be reading this http://sources.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advan … tents]1980 NASA report and this http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic … 053]modern NASA report before you start mocking anyone in this thread.

If you read both and still think its funny then either you are crazy or you have some really good points you neglect to share with us.

John Creighton · 2004-06-16 12:55:43

You should be reading this 1980 NASA report and this modern NASA report before you start mocking anyone in this thread.
If you read both and still think its funny then either you are crazy or you have some really good points you neglect to share with us.

I never said it is impossible. You just seem to give me the impression that you think it is trivial. If it was trivial we would see much more of it.

John Creighton · 2004-06-16 13:02:03

you can do that with 9 transistors. No programming complex stuff.
BEAMbots do it with less.

this just in..... robotic insects take over space. :;):

'Choosing' tools is a no-brainer. Each tool fits in a predetermined slot in a 'toolholder'. To use tool A (if 'empty-handed') go to location A. Latch.To use B, go to A, unlatch, go to B, latch etc.
That's the way it works today with C.N.C. controlled shops. Works perfectly.

I don’t know. It is one thing to say it and it is another thing to do it. If it is so simple I am going to build a CNC machine shop in the middle of the Sihara Desert and use beam bots as my work force.

BTW. I mean putting the right tool bit on the CNC machine. One machine could use a hundred different tool bits. I guess the CNC machine could select the bits from a compartment of the machine and perhaps tighten them independently.

smurf975 · 2004-06-16 13:04:56

No I don't think its trivial as I quoted from the NASA report in an earlier post:

If the construction of a replicating growing lunar factory was purely a matter of machine parts assembly, then the length of the replication program could be determined by the necessity to locate various required parts in the environment and then to specify and execute the proper placement of each part to construct the desired system (Heiserman, 1976). However, it is likely the reproductive process will be vastly more complicated than this, since it is not likely that all parts can be supplied "free" from Earth. If the lunar factory must begin, not with completed machines or parts, but rather with a raw lunar soil substrate, the task quickly becomes many orders more difficult - though not impossible.

If you look well then here on Earth you will already see fully automated plants. Well they still need energy, resources and repairs but if its working its working without human input.

And in politics not always do the best plans get used but the one with the biggest and best lobby. As the shuttle program has a lot of depenend companies it is hard to stop it.

But you make it sound that the robots will work in the wilderness and I'm trying to build a robot nation. Which is not true.

John Creighton · 2004-06-16 13:10:30

But you make it sound that the robots will work in the wilderness and I'm trying to build a robot nation. Which is not true.

If they can't work outside how are they going to build new factories? For growth the new factories obviously have to be outside.

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