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After getting a link from someone’s post to the site http://www.spaceislandgroup.com/home.html]Space Island Group and browsing through the site. It made me think about commercial spaceflight. As I think that the true space age starts with regular commercial spaceflight.
What I’m proposing is that groups of Mars Direct and the Mars Society start lobbying companies for support and not the government like now. As the Mars Direct cost estimates are about $30 billion* which is a lot of money but not if you lobby business for it. For example the introduction and development of the gaming device X-Box was also in the billions so it seems that companies have means to finance billion dollar projects. However they are not crazy and you need to make a really solid business plan.
They may be not inclined to invest, as you are not sure of the return in investment. This is why you should divide the costs over hundreds of companies some big and small ones and not only American but also any company from any country should be able to participate.
Of course you would lobby companies that may get something out of it rather then Nintendo, the Music industry etc. But companies that build machines like Caterpillar, GE, Honda, Renault, Volvo, Daimler are good targets. As they will then get the orders to build and design the machines when a permanent Martian base is established. As for the smaller companies think of for example parts makers. Also you could lobby the hotel industry, as they will benefit from developed technologies and new markets for tourists. But don’t forget the lobby banks for money they have a lot of money.
After you got enough money guarantees you can set up a company that encapsulates the Mars Direct plan and issue stocks to get more money. Every investor will get a share of the profits and or the developed technology that the Mars Direct company makes which is by selling developed technologies (to non investors), exporting Mars produced products and science.
Being an international and private endeavor you can launch from pretty much anywhere and use any technology without being burdened by such things as pride and country prestige. Just science and economics. So you could use for instance Russian technology or American or European or even a hybrid of those with self developed enhancements. Which ever is the most economic and has the best quality.
The first people on Mars goals would be to explore and see what the mineral composition is of Mars (are there any valuable materials? Is there enough material for a permanent base?) From there on there would be a new plan and is a permanent base.
A way to sell this plan would be to make a hybrid of the Mars Direct plan and what Space Island Group tries to do. That is getting a real space station in orbit of Earth and add to the Mars mission plan: Study the economic worth and possibilities of Mars.
I think the Mars Direct and Space Island Group plans compliment each other. As they will be basically using the same technology with some modifications, so there shouldn’t be a problem. The Space station costs about 3 billion dollars. And returns on investment are faster. But as I said they are almost the same technology. So you could use the same parts for the Mars project and share the development costs of the projects.
The Mars project would need a longer time before you get a return on investment but they will be much greater. And if you have a cheap Earth to LEO space plane you can send cargo and people to the space station all the time and from there on to Mars on a bigger ship.
*The $30 billion is divided over twenty years. So if you could like a hundred multinationals (companies with a lot of resources), 300 middle sized companies and some 100 smaller ones. You would have about 500 companies. The biggest have the most money so will invest more. Lets say 60%. So you could say that maybe the money of all the companies together would be like about 350 multinational investors. Divide 30 billion dollars by 350 and then by 20 years.
30000000000 / (350x20) = ~42 million dollars per company per year. Of course the big companies pay more and the smaller ones less.
Waht? Tehr's a preveiw buottn?
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This investment strategy is similar to one I have been working on. I propose developing a reusable Earth-Mars transportation system. Funding would come from the sale of tickets to Mars. One million dollars per ticket for 30,000 people. The tickets could all be sold to a few big companies who could later resell them to anyone.
I have calculated that if the original $30 billion is invested in a diversified portfolio and only part of the interest is used to fund the project then all 30,000 people could be transported to Mars in about 50 years. These 30,000 would be leaders in the new world. They would have the first oportunity to discover mineral wealth, develop real estate, set up transportation sytems, etc. It's survival of the firstest.
To sell the tickets one only need convince the buyer that he can resell them later (at a profit) to those individuals or companies who see a benefit in going to Mars. The buyer can also be protected with a buyback agreement -- "if after 20 years the 'Mars market' doesn't develop then we will buy back your tickets with a 3% (annual interest) markup."
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Mmmmm thats alot of zeros and assumptions... Stop for a minute and take a step back
Thirty Billion United States Dollars? That is quadruple the size of the WorldComm fiasco, tripple the size of the UN Oil for Food debacle, and so on. This is also not accounting for inflation over those twenty years or any interest on loans.
Keep in mind that the $30Bn figure from Bob Zubrin is for NASA to head the project, which they already have lots of the stuff you would need... they have Shuttle and its support facilities & engineers to make the Ares, they have the only offices able to train astronauts or test equipment for Mars, and so on... all stuff that you would have to do from scratch if you cut Nasa out of the picture. There goes the $30Bn.
Private MarsDirect? Ain't gonna happen, especially not at 4-6 seats per flight for two shots every two years. 30,000 people? How on (or beyond) Earth would you move so many people? Where would you move them to when you got there?
[i]"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw[/i]
[i]The glass is at 50% of capacity[/i]
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Mmmmm thats alot of zeros and assumptions... Stop for a minute and take a step back
Thirty Billion United States Dollars? That is quadruple the size of the WorldComm fiasco, tripple the size of the UN Oil for Food debacle, and so on. This is also not accounting for inflation over those twenty years or any interest on loans.
Yes I know its a lot of money and thats why it would be an international effort. If you want another example look at the AOL/Time-Warner merger which was worth $100 Billion and at some time they had a quartely loss of $45 billion. However they are not bankrupt at this moment. That just prooves that there is a lot of money floating arround in the freemarket. And if there wasn't the government couldn't get its tax based funding for NASA.
Keep in mind that the $30Bn figure from Bob Zubrin is for NASA to head the project, which they already have lots of the stuff you would need... they have Shuttle and its support facilities & engineers to make the Ares, they have the only offices able to train astronauts or test equipment for Mars, and so on... all stuff that you would have to do from scratch if you cut Nasa out of the picture. There goes the $30Bn.
You are right about this but if you had looked at the Space Island Group's website you will see they are developing technology that makes up for the lack of Nasa support. They are even planning to have something like the Shuttle. So like I said you will or can share the development costs with such a organization. <However I do undestand that that the Space Island Group has a high vaporware ratio>
Private MarsDirect? Ain't gonna happen, especially not at 4-6 seats per flight for two shots every two years. 30,000 people? How on (or beyond) Earth would you move so many people? Where would you move them to when you got there?
Well the plan on sending 30.000 people to Mars was not my idea. As the Mars Direct plan is basically just a scouting mission. However its very important so that we know what is on that planet and whats not.
But as soon as you are sure whats on Mars and whats not and where it is. And you have fully developed technology as developed by the Space Island Group. You could start sending hordes of people like Ian proposes.
Waht? Tehr's a preveiw buottn?
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