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Risk management for manned mars missions
For SpaceNut re challenges for settling Mars...
I thought of you when I ran across this video....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7mjp7MDx_w
It seems to be designed to list all the problems that you might want to see listed all at once.
I watched only a bit of it ... just enough to decide it appears to be a serious attempt to understand the challenges of setting up shop on Mars.
(th)
The cell phone generates a summary of the content
This video, "Mars Has a Fatal Flaw - And No-one Has the Solution (ft.
Veritasium)," discusses the challenges and potential solutions for human
colonization of Mars.
Challenges of Martian Colonization:
Radiation Exposure during Travel: A three-month trip to Mars exposes astronauts to solar
wind and cosmic radiation, which can lead to cancer and Alzheimer's-like symptoms
(1:59-2:29).
Harsh Martian Environment:
Extreme Temperature Swings: Mars experiences significant temperature fluctuations between
day and night, ranging from -43°C at the polar caps to 35°C in the equatorial summer
(4:01-4:19, 7:51-8:00).
Global Dust Storms: Planet-sized dust storms occur every 5.5 Earth years, lasting for
weeks or months, and can block out almost all sunlight, posing a threat to solar-powered
equipment and human settlements (6:15-6:43, 18:51-20:06). These storms are fueled by dust
devils and saltation, where larger sand grains kick up smaller, more cohesive dust
particles (8:44-10:47).
Thin Atmosphere: Mars's atmosphere is less than 1% of Earth's, making it difficult to
retain heat and creating strong winds from CO2 sublimation (7:16-7:42, 5:20-5:31).
Soil and Food Production: While Martian soil has essential nutrients for plant growth, it
also contains toxic perchlorates, requiring processing before use (23:52-26:37).
Communication Delays: The vast distance to Earth results in communication delays of 3 to
22 minutes one way, making real-time assistance impossible during emergencies
(37:09-37:42).
Psychological and Physiological Toll: Living in confined spaces, with limited social
interaction and constant stress, poses significant psychological challenges. Low gravity
also causes health problems like muscle and bone loss, vision issues, and a weaker immune
system (45:01-46:17).
Proposed Solutions and Technologies:
Radiation Shielding: Astronauts could be shielded by hydrogen-rich materials in
spacecraft construction, such as water tanks surrounding the cabin, or by generating a
magnetic field around the spacecraft (2:30-2:59).
Habitat Construction: Autonomous robots could 3D print habitats using Martian regolith
mixed with water ice, and these structures would be covered with more regolith for
radiation protection (40:22-41:46).
Life Support Systems:
Breathable Air: Oxygen can be acquired through water electrolysis or from atmospheric
carbon dioxide using modules like MOXIE (42:25-43:03).
Energy Production: A hybrid approach using solar panels and cold nuclear reactors,
combined with reliable batteries, would provide a stable energy source (43:37-43:54).
Water Production and Recycling: Extracting and purifying water from Martian ice, along
with water recycling systems, can provide the necessary water for settlers (43:56-44:24).
Advanced Robotic Exploration:
Ingenuity Helicopter: NASA's Ingenuity demonstrated the feasibility of powered flight in
Mars's thin atmosphere, using lightweight materials and carbon fiber blades
(27:56-28:28).
Legged Robots (e.g., Spot): Robots like Boston Dynamics' Spot, with their ability to
traverse uneven terrain, avoid obstacles autonomously, and operate independently, are
being developed for exploring challenging Martian environments like caves (30:57-36:22).
These robots could form the backbone of future exploration, labor, and construction
(36:31-36:40).
Genetic Modifications: NASA is considering genetic modifications for astronauts to combat
radiation and microgravity dangers (46:28-46:39).
The video concludes by highlighting that while much of the necessary technology exists,
some critical advancements are still needed for permanent human colonies on Mars to
become a reality (47:05-47:12).
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Risk mitigation strategies are action plans to minimize threats, primarily using four approaches: Avoidance (eliminating the activity), Reduction (lowering likelihood/impact with controls like safety measures or backups), Transference (shifting risk via insurance/contracts), and Acceptance (acknowledging minor risks or accepting potential losses). Effective strategies involve identifying, assessing, prioritizing risks, then planning, implementing, and continuously monitoring actions to ensure business continuity and protect operations, says Metricstream, AuditBoard, Monday.com, and Pathlock.
The Four Core Strategies
• Risk Avoidance: Changing plans or stopping activities that create the risk (e.g., not entering a risky market).
• Risk Reduction (or Mitigation): Decreasing the probability or severity of a risk (e.g., safety training, redundant systems, cost management).
• Risk Transference (or Sharing): Shifting the risk burden to another party (e.g., buying insurance, outsourcing to a cloud provider with SLAs).
• Risk Acceptance: Consciously deciding to bear the risk, often when costs to mitigate outweigh the potential loss (e.g., low-impact risks).
Key Steps in a Risk Mitigation Plan
1. Identify Risks: Pinpoint potential threats across the organization.
2. Assess & Analyze: Evaluate the likelihood and potential impact of each risk.
3. Prioritize Risks: Focus on high-impact, high-likelihood threats first.
4. Develop a Plan: Choose and implement appropriate strategies (avoid, reduce, transfer, accept).
5. Implement & Monitor: Put the plan into action and continuously track its effectiveness, adjusting as needed.
Examples in Practice
• Cybersecurity: Using firewalls (reduction) or transferring data hosting to a secure provider (transfer).
• Supply Chain: Vetting multiple suppliers (reduction/avoidance) or insuring goods in transit (transfer).
• Project Management: Hiring backup specialists (avoidance/reduction) or building buffer time into schedules (reduction)Mars risk assessment management systems (MARS) refer to various tools and platforms, notably Bloomberg's MARS for financial risk (market, credit, climate) and other systems for IT/application performance, conservation (MARISCO), or modeling, using strategies like risk identification (registers, brainstorming), analysis (FMEA, SWOT, matrices), treatment (avoidance, reduction, transference, acceptance), and monitoring, to provide integrated, data-driven insights for managing complex exposures and ensuring resilience in dynamic environments.
Key MARS Systems & Tools
• Bloomberg MARS (Multi-Asset Risk System): A comprehensive platform for financial firms analyzing market, credit, and new climate risks (MARS Climate module) across diverse asset classes with powerful analytics and data.
• MARISCO (MAnagement of vulnerability and RISk at COnservation sites): An adaptive management toolbox for conservation, integrating climate change impacts and risk into ecosystem management.
• Application Performance Monitoring (APM) MARS: Systems that monitor application load balancers to improve availability, performance, and security through real-time dashboards.
Core Risk Management Strategies
1. Identification: Using tools like risk registers, brainstorming, SWOT analysis, and root cause analysis to find potential risks.
2. Analysis: Assessing risks with Probability & Impact Matrices, FMEA (Failure Mode & Effects Analysis), Bowtie Analysis, or quantitative modeling.
3. Treatment/Response: Applying strategies like:
1. Avoidance: Eliminating the risk activity.
2. Reduction: Mitigating impact or likelihood (e.g., controls).
3. Transference: Shifting risk (e.g., insurance).
4. Acceptance: Acknowledging and budgeting for potential losses.
4. Monitoring & Reporting: Continuous tracking of risks and system performance through dashboards and regular reviews.
Tools & Techniques
• Risk Registers: Central logs for risks, impacts, and responses.
• Data Quality Assessment: Ensuring risk data is reliable.
• Decision Trees & Delphi Technique: Structured decision-making methods.
• Budget & Time Tracking: Managing financial and time-related risks.
These systems and strategies work together to provide a holistic view, allowing organizations to proactively manage uncertainties and build resilience
NASA’s Enterprise Risk Management System
Summary of Results from the Risk Management program for the Mars Microrover Flight Experiment
What would happen if you walked on Mars without a spacesuit?
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Those include radiation protection which SpaceNut has been concerned about.
While the cave is being excavated, the equipment needs a garage for maintenance.
It seems to me the primary purpose of a garage on Mars is to provide a well lit workspace protected from Mars surface conditions.
Radiation protection is important if humans are going to be working in the space, but I think that is unlikely to be the first choice for expeditions planned in 2026.
(th)
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Radiation amount type risk mitigation
The highest priority risk mitigation problems for Mars crews center on Space Radiation, impacting cancer, heart, and cognitive health; Altered Gravity, causing bone/muscle/vision loss (SANS); Isolation & Confinement, affecting psychological well-being and performance; Distance from Earth, complicating emergency medical care and autonomy; and Closed Environments, including life support reliability and Martian dust toxicity. These are prioritized due to their severe impact on crew health, mission success, and long-term survival, requiring advanced technological and medical solutions.
Here's a breakdown by priority:
Highest Priority (Critical "Red" Risks)
Space Radiation: Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and Solar Particle Events (SPEs) increase cancer risk, cardiovascular disease, and central nervous system damage (cognitive decline).Mitigation: Better shielding (transit & surface), advanced warning systems, pharmaceuticals, genetic screening.
Altered Gravity (Microgravity & Partial Gravity): Bone density loss, muscle atrophy, cardiovascular deconditioning, vision problems (SANS).
Mitigation: Artificial gravity (rotation), rigorous exercise regimes, potential pharmaceuticals.
Isolation & Confinement: Psychological stress, depression, interpersonal conflict, performance decrements, boredom.
Mitigation: Crew selection, mental health support, structured activities, habitat design.
Distance from Earth (Communication Delay & Autonomy): No real-time help for emergencies, requiring self-sufficiency in medicine and problem-solving.
Mitigation: Advanced on-board diagnostics, autonomous medical systems (including potential surgery), extensive training.High-Priority (Environmental & Systemic Risks)
5. Closed Environments & Life Support: System failure risks, air/water quality, and contamination.
* Mitigation: High-reliability ECLSS, resource utilization (ISRU) for water/oxygen, robust spares.
6. Inadequate Food & Nutrition: Ensuring sufficient, varied nutrition for long durations.
* Mitigation: Advanced food systems, potential bioregenerative methods.
7. Martian Dust (Regolith): Abrasive, potentially toxic dust affecting equipment and human respiratory/skin health.
* Mitigation: Dust mitigation strategies for suits and habitats, air filtration.Prioritization Logic: These risks are prioritized using impact-versus-probability matrices, focusing on those with high potential for severe outcomes that threaten the crew's survival or mission completion, with radiation and gravity effects often topping the list due to their fundamental biological impact
Seems its number 1, no ones a near death or dead crewman on return...
2 seems to me with health as a result of mars lesser gravity
3 appears to be toxic condition found on Mars
Key Risk Categories & Challenges
Radiation Exposure: Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) and Solar Particle Events (SPEs) increase cancer, CNS damage, and tissue degradation risks.Microgravity & Partial Gravity: Causes significant muscle atrophy, bone density loss, and cardiovascular deconditioning, with current countermeasures potentially insufficient.
Martian Dust (Regolith): Its fine, oxidative nature poses respiratory and other health risks, potentially causing disease.
Life Support & Systems Reliability: Systems must be highly reliable for multi-year missions far from Earth, demanding robust, fault-tolerant designs.
Human Factors & Psychology: Crew stress, social dynamics, and isolation during long voyages are critical.
Medical Emergencies: The inability to easily return or get immediate help means any injury or illness is a severe risk.
Assessment & Mitigation Strategies
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): Tools like NASA's Integrated Medical Model (IMM) quantify medical risks for different mission profiles.Faster Transit: Reducing overall mission time minimizes exposure to deep space hazards.
Shielding & Monitoring: Advanced techniques for radiation protection and early warning of solar events are crucial.
Mission Timing: Optimizing launch windows to align with lower solar activity.
Health & Performance Models: Developing models to understand how performance changes with different crew compositions and medical capabilities.
Mars-Specific Solutions: Addressing Martian dust toxicity and developing robust, closed-loop life support systems
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Seems the second requires
To counter risks from reduced gravity (microgravity and Mars' 38% gravity) on Mars missions, astronauts use a combination of exercise systems, fluid loading, compression garments, medications, and the promising, though complex, concept of artificial gravity (like onboard centrifuges) to prevent bone/muscle loss, cardiovascular issues, and sensorimotor problems, with advanced radiation shielding also critical for the deep space journey itself.
Countermeasures for Microgravity (Transit to Mars)
Exercise: Intensive resistance and aerobic workouts are crucial for bone and muscle health.Fluid & Salt Loading: Increases fluid volume and blood pressure to combat cardiovascular deconditioning before gravity shifts.
Compression Garments: Help maintain blood pressure and reduce orthostatic intolerance (fainting) upon return to gravity.
Lower Body Negative Pressure (LBNP): Uses suction to pull fluids downward, mimicking gravity's effects.Artificial Gravity (AG): A major goal involves rotating sections of the spacecraft or using an onboard centrifuge for daily exposure to simulated gravity, potentially preventing most microgravity effects
Of course we know that these must be planned into the travels to or from mars with AG and only exercise remains for the surface of mars.
Exercise Countermeasures As used on the ISS.
Of course the compressive suits are something that can be used within the dome structure and repair garage use.
Mars crew compression space suits (Mechanical Counterpressure suits, or MCP) are experimental, skintight elastic suits designed to provide pressure with mechanical force, not gas, offering better mobility and reduced fatigue for Mars exploration, contrasting traditional gas-pressurized suits and tackling issues like microgravity's effects on bones and muscles. Concepts like NASA's Bio-Suit, the Australian MarsSkin, and Gravity Loading Countermeasure Skinsuits aim to use elastic fabrics or shape-memory alloys to mimic Earth's gravity, helping astronauts stay healthy during long-duration missions by simulating normal loading on the body.
Key Features & Concepts
Mechanical Pressure: Instead of inflating with gas, these suits use stretchy, form-fitting fabrics (like Lycra) to press against the astronaut's skin, providing necessary counter-pressure in Mars' thin atmosphere.
Mobility & Comfort: They offer greater reach, dexterity, and comfort, with less fatigue than bulky, gas-pressurized suits, making tasks like geology sampling easier.
Gravity Loading: Suits like the Gravity Loading Countermeasure Skin (GLCS) apply downward pressure to simulate Earth's gravity, combating bone and muscle loss in microgravity.
Advanced Materials: Researchers are exploring shape-memory alloys that can shrink-wrap the wearer when activated by heat or current, creating a truly skin-tight fit.
Mars-Specific Design: While MCP suits are ideal for microgravity, Mars suits need to handle lower gravity (about 38% of Earth's) and abrasive dust, requiring robust yet light designs.
Examples in Development
Bio-Suit (MIT): Based on the original SAS concept, using elastic garments for mechanical counterpressure.
MarsSkin (Mars Society Australia): Tested by crews, providing enhanced comfort and dexterity for EVAs.
Gravity Loading Countermeasure Skinsuit: Designed to help maintain bone mass and muscle strength during long missions.
Benefits for Mars Missions
Health Preservation: Reduces physiological deconditioning (bone density loss, muscle atrophy) during transit and on the surface.
Enhanced Exploration: Lighter weight and better mobility enable more effective and less tiring surface activities.
Reduced Logistics: Potentially lighter and more compact than traditional suits, reducing launch mass
New idea for Mechanical Counter Pressure suit
Reducing Risk for Manned Mars Missions
project use now dead
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