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#1 2022-10-11 12:22:16

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 9,772

Predictions that were correct, prediction that were wrong

Do not take offense to this thread

None of us have time machines, things get predicted some correctly or some perhaps wrong


I might do a Top 5 predictions done correct and wrong. Newmars as a community has made many predictions, some predictions were by users themselves others were news articles they posted. There have been many 'predictions' over the years some accurate, some not accurate. Will Mars evolve into something different to Earth or if hundreds go to Mars will it also have Oracles and Astrologists and the pseudoscientific voodoo and belief just as we have on Earth?

Many different types of people make predictions about the future, some poetry to forecast exploration, change in geology, environment, war and economics, some make jokes about the Earth's future in comedy, poetry and music, others make art works of escapism in film and painted art, soon AI will perhaps do almost the very same thing humans have done.

In Western Art and Culture, the early Atomic age was generally given a positive aesthetic in early scifi it centered around a view of the future from the perspective of the 1950s and 1960s. In media you had tv cartoon like the Jetsons and scifi books use a distinct, brightly-colored art style. Art often depicted imagery associated with "traditionally American" values and the power of atomics, particularly a belief in the nuclear family, this was before the scares of Chernobyl, Three Mile Island or Fukushima and media tv news reported fears about nuclear dangers. In the late 70s, 80s and 1990s there was a lot of Japanese techno hype, some thought Japan with its tech and robots and money would simply buy up the whole world, that was before the 'Bubble Burst' and they lost 2 decades to economic stagnation, yet Japan never fully collapsed with so maybe it shows there still is something to the mix of technology and traditional Japan way of life?  After the terrorist attacks of 911 and the changes that followed such as 'Patriot Act' there were people who said our world would never be the same, Orwellian cameras everywhere, watching every email and tv manipulation, hedonism and drugs, all kinds of psychological manipulation and classical conditioning the Huxley Brave New World and George Orwell 1984 and Endless War all rolled into one. There have been all kinds of Predictions from fear over global economics an 'Amero' or NAFT digital currency or Bitcoin taking over the world, fear of a Global Virus in films like '12 monkeys' to fears of Civil War in the USA and secessionist separatist movements of Alaska, Texas, California that would break away from the Union. There were also prediction of UAP 'disclosure', UFO Sightings to other prediction of a happy future, Utopia prediction of zero poverty and people going to work in 'flying cars'.  There have been other predictions like 'a black swan event' damages the world economy or an October Surprise during election cycles.


'American Moon Base prediction... - tell me what you think'
https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=1161

clark wrote:

I think we will be back on the moon, with a base, by 2015-2020.

Clark even asked for the thread to be locked and done and complete as his prediction had already been made true because of something Bush junior said while lying to the US public.

Clark had taken a 'pig in a poke' the French un chat en poche or buy a fish in the sea as the Semitic culture of Malta say, Chinese to buy a cow 牛 over there in another far away mountain 山, or bought the German die Katze im Sack kaufen
some had taken it as a guarantee America would have Moon colonies by 2020?

clark wrote:

It was fun following this, and more fun being right!

2020 Moon Mars colonies turned out to be false news


TRUE

1
Elon Musk Space-X will transform the Space Industry and the growth of Private Space or Alt space. Back in those early days it was a brave prediction only big Billionaires Branson & Bezos invested and Burt Rutan looked to space, the Soyuz was another option from Russians it sold seats for Space Tourists and Musk's rockets used to fail to achieve goals or blow up, his company was almost bust. SpaceX has since totally changed the business of orbital launch vehicle and transformed the entire space industry.

2
China would become a 'Space Power' build space stations and start landing stuff on Mars. Chinese were still associated with Mao-ism, a Communist country, it beat its down own people, crushed, killed demonstrators but it also started to open up, it wanted future ideas and tech, it traded economically, in an unmanned mission, China sent a monkey, a dog, a rabbit and snails into orbit aboard the unmanned Shenzhou. Some of the old timers did not believe Chinese would go anywhere. 

3
'Don't Trust Putin', he's going to invade the mountainous Unitary parliamentary republic of Georgians in Caucasus region and wants to be a Tsar or USSR Dictator. Not every new mars person listened to Putin critics, Russia had a good relation with America at this time, a War on Terror had begun and Russia was helping keeping NASA on the ISS after the loss of Space Shuttle Columbia. There were also many War or Russian invasion predictions by users like Tom Kalbfus

4
War on Terror maybe has Failures coming. People predicted the Taliban would comeback. Eventually after a long time islamism, jihadis and the Taliban would return in Afghanistan and retake the country. Guys on donkeys and camels, hiding inside caves with IEDs or with AK47s winning, it sounded like a crazy prediction to some, then in August 2021, Afghanistan's capital city of Kabul was captured by the Taliban.

5
AI or Robots will be so good at acting human that humans themselves won't be able to tell the difference, start to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human.

other predictions

WRONG

1
NASA or USA or Mankind will land on Mars somewhere between the next 5-10 years. This has been an ongoing prediction since the late 60s and since the 'Space Exploration Initiative' of 1989 there has never really been a political will to land on Mars or colonize Mars, no true deadline set no "We choose to go to the Moon" JFK speeches. 

2
India would become the world's number 1 super power by 2020, maybe it was a way for economist types to get people to part with their savings and invest them in some far away scammer place, maybe it was overhyped chest thumping from Hindu nationalist media types? Some said India had to many issues and problems mired in superstitions, ignorance, a lot of caste system social baggage and bigotry and orthodoxy.

3
British will remain inside the EU, no Brexit.
Also EU working while opening borders to the refugees, foreign criminals and world's multi-culturism

4
Nation building, Afghanistan can become like post WW2 Germany or Japan. They won't riot, chop each others heads off and burn down embassies every time they hear about a rumor some guy dropped a Koran or some person drawing a funny cartoon.

5
The Hollywood crazy pot smoking hard liquor timeline. Skynet Terminator timeline, the Soviet Russian USSR will be around forever in space as seen in 2001 A Space Odyssey back on Earth humanity will Nuke ourselves to death, eschatological beliefs involving the LHC and Planet X and 2012 Mayan Doomsday prophecy. There have also been predictions based more on feelings rather than science or reality predictions like  we will find humanoid animal alien life and then UFOs will invade, humans will invent stuff like FTL 'Warp Drive'.

Even in our modern age is there an element of belief in our prediction, maybe an influence of politics, bias and irrational excessively credulous fallacy to our predictions? It is almost impossible to truly predict the future but that does not stop people from trying, with the growth of AI people can expect predictions to come more often with the help of the artificial machine mind. In the past visionary humans of the Earth often had a mystic, religion, supernatural belief element to it, the predictions of 'Nostradamus' still believed by some, a lot of people today still follow astrologers or believe Nostrodamus had foreseen the 911 attacks. In ancient Greece they had an oracle is a person or agency considered to provide wise and insightful counsel or prophetic predictions, most notably including precognition of the future, inspired by mystical elements, Planetary alignments, a perception of Ghostly happenings or Comets seen as a message from the Heavens. In our books fantasy folklore stories of Things that were, things that are...and some things....that have not yet come to pass.  The Seer they appear in our movies and fictional books, 'The Matrix' a Mad Prophet or Mad Oracle sometimes appearing in Dune, the clairvoyant appears in scifi tv shows like Babylon 5 in the LOTR book and movie very cryptic sentence, uttered by Galadriel in The Fellowship of the Ring; after refusing the One Ring Galadriel said “I Pass the Test.” she could see a future but it was uncertain, she also had her own personal test maybe fighting her fear of being tempted by One-Ring to Rule them All. In China, another culture with superstitions vision bones were used for divination, Celts had druids,  visions were seen by old Hindu people of India and the Hawaiian temples, Mesoamerica cultures had 'visions' predictions of a future from Pre-Columbian Americas, in Scandanavia Norse mythology, Odin lost an eye but gained internal sight. The Ouija board a very Victorian pastime even Kings and Queens would be convinced by 'mystics' to try talk with the dead,  Tarot card decks were used for 'readings' specifically designed for occult purposes.

In our real world sometimes there are true visionary dreamers, people who imagine up an invention that is later created in real life or they have a vision of something that is yet discovered, Friedrich Kekulé, a German organic chemist, in a waking dream. Slumber or day dream, he supposedly saw rows of atoms dancing around which eventually formed the image of a snake devouring its own tail, in his 'vision' he discovered Benzene is an organic chemical compound with the molecular formula C6H6.

In fantasy media sometimes scifi books or Hollywood got it right and wrong.

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2024-06-06 14:01:45)

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#2 2024-05-25 08:07:01

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 9,772

Re: Predictions that were correct, prediction that were wrong

The French and Germany's Merkel thought they could import thousands upon thousands of foreigners, gangsters or  muslims without issues, some of them from radical jihadi places, some of them from cultures of crime.

France prison van attack: Hundreds of police join day two of manhunt for 'highly dangerous' criminal The Fly
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new … s-32813252

Paul Krugman questioned the usefulness of NASA's manned space flights given the available technology and their high financial cost compared to their general benefits.
https://web.archive.org/web/20081206074 … A9659C8B63

in year 2019

'Political Cult Leader Lyndon LaRouche Dies at 96'
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/02 … at-96.html

"Clash of Civilizations" future wars would be fought not between countries, but between cultures
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles … ilizations

Some are accused of being permanent members of an old club, Deep State London Washington

a book Jungle Grows Back: America and Our Imperiled World is a 2018 book by  Robert Kagan, published by Alfred A. Knopf.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com … rever-war/

https://www.the-american-interest.com/2 … o-destroy/

James Fearon, Bargaining model of war

Rationalist explanations for war?
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10. … 0008429423
Jonathan Kirshner

National Interests in International Society. By Martha Finnemore
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/a … alCode=ajs

One of the few forecasters to predict violence and chaos in 2020 thinks spiraling inequality is pushing the U.S. closer to collapse than Russia
https://fortune.com/europe/2024/03/12/f … -violence/

The Signal and the Noise, Why So Many Predictions Fail–but Some Don't
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/book … te-silver/
By Nate Silver

The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/387 … t-delusion
John J. Mearsheimer

National Security-Related Applications of Artificial Intelligence
https://www.cnas.org/publications/repor … l-security

Reading Tea Leaves, The Magic 8 Ball, Fortune Cookies, Tarot Cards now replaced by Artificial Intelligence


Timeline of AI forecasts
https://theaidigest.org/timeline


AI writes 25% of best selling fiction

Most Americans know someone who has dated an AI

Slaughter-Bots kill 50 people outside military conflict

Religion with AI as a deity or priest has 1 million followers

AI wins a Nobel Prize



'Forecasting Geopolitical Conflicts Using GPT-3 AI'
https://europepmc.org/article/PPR/PPR612781


a prediction of attitudes

Terraformer wrote:

Here are a few ideas.

In the short run, they're hoping for an economic boost. In the long run, they'll be dead, so they don't care much about the long run.

A lot of them still feel guilty about europeans going to Africa and civilising it stealing their stuff colonising it, and think we can make it up to them by letting them come here and take our stuff. Such is the collectivist mindset.

A stubborn belief in multiculturalism, and that human beings are fungible - a Turk can step onto German soil, and he instantly becomes as much a German as those whose ancestors actually built the place.

They are firm believers in the cult of progress. The idea that civilisation is fragile, and that what Europe has is a historical aberration that should be carefully preserved, is anathema to them.

They see other places as cesspools, and wish to save their inhabitants from such a fate. The question of why they are cesspools is not asked.

GDP is their No. 1 priority. Anything that increases it is by definition good.

They have a disdain for the common folk, and wish to dissolve their people and elect another.

They are uncultured swine who actually believe, as a result, that white people have no culture, and so wish to import one from abroad.

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2024-06-06 14:08:09)

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#3 2024-05-25 09:07:53

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 9,772

Re: Predictions that were correct, prediction that were wrong

A user Calliban has posted some very interesting posts but has become more pesimistic on space exploration and colonization maybe because of politics he sees a type of economic downturn looming

with exploration and colonization making a return in the 2100s


Mercury is a volatile rich planet.  There are even speculations that life could exist beneath its surface.  Who would have guessed that even a few years ago?

This will be a tough place for humans to visit, partly because it is so deep in the sun's gravity well.  Any ship entering orbit of Mercury would need to rely on numerous gravity assists with Earth and Venus to dissipate sufficient orbital energy such that relative speed to the planet is low enough to enter orbit.  Landing on the planet won't be easy.  Mercury has substantial gravity and no atmosphere at all to brake a spacecraft.  So all dV must be propulsive.

That being said, the planet could offer opportunities for human settlement.  The lack of atmosphere is actually a bonus so close to the sun.  There is nothing to distribute heat, allowing areas close to the poles to remain temperate or cold.  The planet has virtually no axial tilt, so does not experience seasons.  That is an advantage as well, as it allows for predictable temperature ranges that never get too hot at high latitudes.  Closer to the equator, patches of the planet can be kept cool by suspending reflective mirrors above the surface.  These mirrors would be aluminised foil suspended on steel cables running between towers or pillars.  Solar energy provides all of the energy that human colonies will ever need.

Without any sensible atmosphere, mass drivers would work efficiently on the surface.  These would need to be housed in tubes and covered with a metre of regolith to keep the structure cool.  But export of materials from Mercury surface into solar orbit will be much easier than from Earth or Venus.  Mercury would be a good place for optical and infrared astronomy during its long night.  After sundown, the surface begins to cool, reaching temperatures of around 100K.

and

Josh Cryer wrote:

SpaceX will get to Mars before any other governmental agency.

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2024-06-06 14:05:22)

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#4 2024-05-25 09:10:21

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 9,772

Re: Predictions that were correct, prediction that were wrong

Climate, getting worse changes with more extreme events but not a total disaster yet?

50 Celsius or 122 F

Heat in India: North India boils as temperatures near 50C
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cyjj7y7zy74o.amp

Polish foreign minister calls for long-term rearmament of Europe | Poland

https://www.theguardian.com/world/artic … ent-europe


more predictions

How America's population will look in the 2050s
https://www.newsweek.com/how-america-po … 0s-1904524

Climate change and a rise in sea levels

SpaceNut wrote:

Since you have waves crashing against the walls that are built why not use it to do the energy creation.

Also, all of the estuaries with the tidal water can spin turbines in each direction of the water flow every day as another method.

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2024-06-06 14:09:16)

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#5 2024-06-01 16:10:25

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 9,772

Re: Predictions that were correct, prediction that were wrong

'A dream come true': Nuclear clock breakthrough could revolutionize study of the universe's fundamental forces
https://www.livescience.com/physics-mat … tal-forces

Democrats push Biden to make Trump’s felonies a top 2024 issue
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/de … 602-p5jiis

Tucker Carlson to Blame for 'Demonization of Ukraine': Mitch McConnell
https://www.newsweek.com/tucker-carlson … ll-1893428

Netflix CEO makes prediction on the role of AI in Hollywood
https://faroutmagazine.co.uk/netflix-ce … hollywood/

Water Pipes and Salt Lakes

tahanson43206 wrote:

Regarding brine ... we've discussed this before, but it is difficult to keep track of everything....

The Great Salt Lake, like the Dead Sea in Palestine, is far saltier than the world's oceans.

In fact, one of the attractions at the time I visited the Great Salt Lake, was to float in the water like a cork.

The water arriving from the Pacific Ocean would be like fresh water in comparison... it would dilute the Great Salt Lake until evaporation returns the lake to normal.

That line about evaporation caught my eye after i wrote it ....

It would seem to be a shame to transport sea water 700 miles, just to let it evaporate. (corrected distance 2022/07/22)

On the other hand, Ma Nature has been delivering fresh water to the lake for a few million years until recently.

Returning the Great Salt Lake to normal fill level would be an aesthetic choice by humans.  $3B(USD) seems (on the face of it) to be a lot to pay for aesthetics.

However, I ** just ** saw a report that the Cleveland Browns are thinking about asking for a $1B(USD) replacement stadium, to be funded by taxpayers.

Three football stadiums would cover the Great Salt Lake refill operation. (give or take a few hundred million).

(th)

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2024-06-06 14:11:25)

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#6 2024-06-06 11:30:16

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 9,772

Re: Predictions that were correct, prediction that were wrong

Peter Zeihan a Charlatan?

Argentina will destroy the British and conquer the Falklands
https://zeihan.com/argentina-after-america/

a kamikaze Ukranian-Russian suicide bomber?

'French police have arrested a 26-year-old Ukranian-Russian man after he blew himself up with explosive materials in a hotel room north of Paris'
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 … ors-office

they have arrested the body parts?

France is trying to determine whether it is a misguided freedom fighter, or a totalitarian imperialist terrorist?



Germany's Scholz seeks to deport criminals from Afghanistan
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-scholz-s … a-69285761

Yemen and Shipping?

Risk of War Between Israel and Hezbollah Builds as Clashes Escalate
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/i … karh5vjvr4


my prediction of sorts

Artemis has given the USA and humanity two new Heavy Lift rockets, it has also seen the rise of the Private Sector and new Cargo vehicles and new Crew Vehicle


Why the USA is in a better position to go to Mars than it was in the 60s and 70s, the USA today has so many more years of experiences on Space Stations through NASA the ISS. New advances in AI are here today, new Robotics, new material science with Nanotech, Mars is mapped and explored with Rovers, flying with Helicopters. Self driving diggers and self assembling Origami style spacecraft which might build a town or farms on Mars before humans arrive, a look at Nuclear power in space. International partners that can be brought in from Australia, Japan, Europe, Canada, South Korea, new craft Orion Dragon, Starliner, Dreamchaser, the Japan Cargo ship, ATV inspired, Cygnus...the Private Sector building stations, contests as others want to rise such as India, the risk of China getting to Mars first with MSR etc which might be too much to take.


Why Artemis is a 'worse' position than Apollo? the risk of humans living on the Moon is great, Gateway is a costly distraction, the costs of the world economy begins a world economy and US economy starting to decline?

quoting


Interest on US National Debt Hits New Record
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/arms … ew-record/
Government spending has consequences. The US national debt has surpassed $34.6 trillion at the time of this writing and continues to grow every minute. America has never been in a deeper deficit. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has reported that America was forced to pay $514 billion in the first seven months of FY2024 on interest costs alone. This means that America paid more in servicing its debt than on any other program besides Social Security ($837 billion), which is a separate problem entirely.


I am not totally against the Moon, designs on the Moon could be useful for Mars for example a Spelunking Caver robot on the Lunar surface could also work on Mars.

Louis had gone done the conspiracy UFO route already


some of these events turned out to be true but they might be just strange Atmospheric Phenomena or Military Drones, we have seen strange Drone film from the War in Ukraine.


louis wrote:

The end of 2017 was remarkable for the first ever public confirmation that government agencies have concluded there are extreme performance aircraft operating around Earth that do not have a human origin...I can't really think of anything more stunning than that. We have now seen the video of what the experienced naval pilots observing a UFO saw.  Many commentators are suggesting this is only the first step in a process of public disclosure and that we will see much more in 2018. If so, humanity is set for a futureshock of unimaginable proportions. Could be we find out what is like to be in a primitive society suddenly confronted by a strange but technically very advanced culture: traumatic, demoralising and disorientating.

an old topic on the vision

Dook wrote:

Return to the moon to stay?  Why would anyone want to?

Oldfart seen how the Airforce were confident on Space-X

Alt-Space, New-Space, Musk and Secure High Ground and the old alliances ATK etc

Oldfart1939 wrote:

The Air Force seems to have a lot of confidence on SpaceX, so this may be another expensive detour for Orbital ATK/Northrup-Grumman? Of course, the redundancy of having 2 systems available is important to national security planners.



also From 2018

Oldfart1939 wrote:

Will Boeing get their new spacecraftcraft a test flight on the way to a commercial crew resupply for the ISS?

Will SpaceX fly a crewed mission to the ISS?

My wild prediction department: Musk will again announce a further downsizing of his BFR to something much more manageable--similar to the previous concept of the Falcon X.

OK, these are my predictions, guesses, and wild speculations.

and

Oldfart1939 wrote:

If Elon really gets his s**t together, many of these second generation launchers are going to be conceptually obsolete even before built. But as in times past--his enthusiasm sometimes supersedes time lines for realization.




A somewhat written prediction from Admin and user Kbd512 on Starship, SLS, Orion



kbd512 wrote:

At this point, we really should focus on "duck aligning", so that when we undertake a specific mission, all of our ducks are in a row.  My irritation at the inordinate cost and protracted developmental timeline of Orion and SLS is no secret, but now that we have them we should identify the roles where they fit in best, and use them exclusively for roles which they excel at.

Here to stay (at least for now):
SLS / Orion
Dragon / Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy
Starship Super Heavy
Vulcan Starliner
Vulcan Dreamchaser
Vulcan Cygnus

Next few years:
New Glenn  / whatever capsule and lander systems Blue Origin comes up with

It would've been great to have even more options with air-launch from StratoLauncher and Cosmic Girl, but that was not to be.

In conjunction with ESA, JAXA, and hopefully ROSCOSMOS whenever this Ukraine War nonsense finally ends, we have enough tech and international partners to move forward with lunar and Mars bases and eventual colonization.  Potential new partners include India, South Korea, and various Middle Eastern nations.

I would disagree with part of this prediction or vision

Europe and Japan is useful when they work with NASA and for some reason people always forget the foreign help in NZ/Aus and the Canadians who built Canada-Arm I guess everyone treats them like a 51st State. I would disagree on Russia and the Middle East, I don't see relations with Russians repaired anytime soon after the Ukraine invasion and the Middle East is a headache of fanaticism, South Korea I see as a correct prediction it might start doing a lot of the robotic stuff Japan and Europe has done.

India or ISRO will do its own thing, although we sometimes think we understand India and while Hindu Nationalist India is a 'Democracy' relations between India and the West are strange, while they are not politically the same as the USSR or Russia maybe think of them as something you can't fully define like a weird tree that crosses the border between British Guyana and Venezuela the idea of India is hard to defineis old like an Egypt, it has mixes of people and languages like a South Africa, a forgotten nation or lost Kingdom or country lost to time like a Yugoslavia, Rhodesia Zanzibar Kingdom, United Arab Republic, a Czechoslovakia,  Tuvan People's Republic, a type of Malaysia, the lost Kaiser German Empire, relations may have been damaged with the War in Afghanistan and Pakistan as a US Ally and events of the ColdWar.

and more predictions

kbd512 wrote:

India will overtake China.


the other predictions

methods to orbit idea, Mars Samples, the Dream Chaser an American reusable spaceplane developed by Sierra Space it was intended as a crewed vehicle

GW Johnson wrote:

  20-20 hindsight says it may have been an error not to fund Dreamchaser.  Dreamchaser is nearing orbital flight tests despite no government funding.

GW

and

GW Johnson wrote:

The Mars Sample Return mission is all but dead,  due to delays and high costs.  "New space" might bid lower,  but the delay will still be too long with such a late start. The bigger the dinosaur,  the longer the time interval between death and actually falling over (SLS is the biggest one I have ever seen).  --  GW


in predictions sometimes Robert Dyck was a more practical person

not really making prediction but request or  demands of something to be done


RobertDyck wrote:

Fix the Urine Processing Assembly so it doesn't get clogged by calcium deposits!

a wish-list instead of 'Michel de Nostredame' prediction

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2024-06-07 07:37:56)

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