Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

Terraformer · 2021-11-03 09:52:48

Choke point: "a geographical feature on land such as a valley, defile or bridge, or maritime passage through a critical waterway such as a strait, which an armed force is forced to pass through in order to reach its objective." It's not just armed forces that are vulnerable to them of course - as everyone was reminded this year when the Suez Canal was shut by a civilian vessel.

Space may seem free and empty, but just like Terra, it has its own choke points. Certain locations are more valuable than others - there are only five lagrange points, for example, and only the polar regions on Lunar can access permanent solar power.

Additionally, resources are not evenly distributed. All of this suggests that there will be a strong first mover advantage for those who secure these sites. An organisation that acquires the Lunar subterran point and its antipodes would be able to exert control over any Lunar space elevators that are constructed (the two endpoints possible are L1 and L2). Given the substantial economic savings that space elevators could bring, it may then be possible for them to undercut any other settlement ventures and make themselves the hegemons of Luna.

There is both danger and opportunity in these choke points. The opportunity for a group to gain such a strong position that it can dictate terms. The danger that such a group will be Amazon Tether Services Ltd.

tahanson43206 · 2021-11-03 11:03:23

For Terraformer re new topic ... Best wishes for success with this interesting and provocative new line of discussion.

Any entity seeking to gain control over any chokepoints the contributors to this topic may identify, in addition to the set you've identified, must be prepared to support their claim with overwhelming military force.

It is inevitable that such force will be necessary, so any entity seeking to gain competitive advantage must be prepared to defend it.

The alternative is to work out a system of sharing that does not provoke the natural instincts of male humans to enter into combat.

You have (surely) seen the intellectual combat between male members of this forum, so the instinctive male behavior should not be unexpected to you.

At the moment, on Earth, the open oceans are held in an uneasy state of open access, but China is making moves that will allow it to gain complete control of significant amounts of the currently "free" ocean surface.

There is (on Earth) no supreme authority with commensurate military power to maintain the status quo of ocean access.

Only Nation States with military resources, and the National Will to exert strength in opposition to China's male dominated culture, have any hope of holding back the tide.

(th)

Terraformer · 2021-11-03 11:17:08

There are other forms of warfare besides combat. The monopolists trusts were eventually broken up, but whilst they had them they had no need to maintain large standing arms to protect their market control. In any case, who has the power to militarily dislodge Amazon Tether Services from their coveted position? Yes, they could face sanctions that affect their operations, but to be effective it would have to be a unanimous decision amongst all spacefaring powers (which, if we do get cheap orbital launch, is likely to expand a lot from the current list of three).

You don't need force to gain control of these places if you get there before everyone else. AFAIK there is nothing in maritime law that allows you to sink a ship because it's anchored in a position you want to be in. Similarly, a spaceship in a valuable orbit holds that orbit as long as it wants, and a habitat in a valuable location holds that location as long as it wants. Governments can go cry at the UN if they don't like it.

tahanson43206 · 2021-11-03 12:05:47

For Terraformer .... What influence would the UN have on a space faring nation?

You may well be right. I just don't see how that would work.

Similarly, if a Nation (or a terrorist) sinks a ship in International waters, who is there to object or to seek redress?

The Germans sank a ** lot ** of "neutral" ships before (and probably during) World War II.

The United States dithered and dithered and wrung it's collective hands but did nothing out of fear of the cost of war.

However, what I'm ** really ** looking forward to is the spirited debate that your new topic should provoke.

(th)

kbd512 · 2021-11-03 12:47:30

Terraformer,

The communist Chinese military is not particularly well-known for giving a crap about maritime law.

louis · 2021-11-03 19:11:08

Personally I feel the L Point stuff is a bit of a diversion and NASA seem to obsess about them but make no progress at all. Space elevators if possible are a long way off and will require development of new materials that we can't currently produce.

I'd worry more about what is going to happen to the Moon and Mars once we have easy access. Are we going to export all the ills of Earth or are we going to create new societies that are an example to those of us left back on Earth?

I don't think the Moon is very promising in terms of full scale colonisation and certainly wouldn't guarantee our survival as a species because it is too close to Earth.

Terraformer wrote:

Choke point: "a geographical feature on land such as a valley, defile or bridge, or maritime passage through a critical waterway such as a strait, which an armed force is forced to pass through in order to reach its objective." It's not just armed forces that are vulnerable to them of course - as everyone was reminded this year when the Suez Canal was shut by a civilian vessel.
Space may seem free and empty, but just like Terra, it has its own choke points. Certain locations are more valuable than others - there are only five lagrange points, for example, and only the polar regions on Lunar can access permanent solar power.
Additionally, resources are not evenly distributed. All of this suggests that there will be a strong first mover advantage for those who secure these sites. An organisation that acquires the Lunar subterran point and its antipodes would be able to exert control over any Lunar space elevators that are constructed (the two endpoints possible are L1 and L2). Given the substantial economic savings that space elevators could bring, it may then be possible for them to undercut any other settlement ventures and make themselves the hegemons of Luna.
There is both danger and opportunity in these choke points. The opportunity for a group to gain such a strong position that it can dictate terms. The danger that such a group will be Amazon Tether Services Ltd.

SpaceNut · 2021-11-03 19:31:50

A vehicle leaving earth for any destination that can not get there without refueling is a choke point sure you will get more mass once you do refuel but there is a cost at the other end since to come back you must refuel once more.

The Saturn V and Apollo lunar module was the only vehicle to not be stuck via a choke point.
We have no example to this point for Mars Human missions. Part of that is the down mass requirement for the long stay and the refueling which requires even more mass thus far.

Terraformer · 2021-11-04 08:21:13

louis,

Humans are humans. Stop trying to create a utopia by keeping out "the wrong sort". You are welcome to try and do that in Montana if you'd like, no need to cross 75 million kilometres of space to do so.

kbd512 · 2021-11-04 09:06:18

Terraformer,

I think the underlying point is that we need to keep evil people away from power, or they will do evil things when given the opportunity.

SpaceNut · 2021-11-04 18:54:59

Mass from earths gravity well is another check point that limits our rocket ability

tahanson43206 · 2021-11-04 19:44:04

For SpaceNut .... I ** think ** Terraformer is using the term "choke point" in a military context.

Your example of the gravity of Earth is a "universal" obstacle, imposed upon everyone.

A choke point, however, is a place where one group of humans imposes controls on another set of humans.

The strait into which Iran pokes a triangular shaped body of land is an example of a "choke point".

Iran could (if it chose) close off that strait with mines, and (if memory serves) something along those lines already occurred in a past Middle Eastern disturbance.

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(th)

louis · 2021-11-04 19:49:36

"Humans are humans". Crass and crasser I guess.

So you are claiming every culture is equal to every other culture, every religion is equal to every other religion, every corporation is equal to every corporation?

Where do we start?

How do you rate the Taliban against Quakers. Are you honestly saying you'd have no preference if asked whether you wished to be raised as a child by the Taliban or Quakers?

On one thing we can agree: Mars will not be a utopia.

But equally it is obvious:

1. Re the iniitial Mars colonisation programme (let's say the first 20 years) we won't be deliberately bringing in a cross section of humans (ie a representative sample including meth addicts, religious maniacs, habitual criminals, people with psychiatric disorders, flakey types, pregnant women, people with significant disabilities or people with gender issues).

2. So the issue is really how far you maintain controls over further migration to the planet.

Yes you can say "humans are humans" but what does that mean? Are you saying you want a complete representative sample of Earth-based humanity. And how is that "representative sample" going to be organised if that's what you want?

In other words, cut the virtue-signalling and tell us what you are proposing.

Terraformer wrote:

louis,
Humans are humans. Stop trying to create a utopia by keeping out "the wrong sort". You are welcome to try and do that in Montana if you'd like, no need to cross 75 million kilometres of space to do so.

SpaceNut · 2021-11-04 19:54:34

ignoring the first paragraph as its describing what choke points are and going with the remaining as to what are space choke points in terms of what are they.....

Mars_B4_Moon · 2021-11-30 10:38:39

One Choke point will be LEO if people start to fill Earth with orbiting debris
Debris warning postpones NASA spacewalk
https://www.kake.com/story/45331543/deb … -spacewalk

Russia's ASAT Test Makes Solar Orbiter's Flyby Riskier
https://www.republicworld.com/technolog … eport.html

Also I see walking by or driving by extremist religion temples as a choke point

Seems the islamics and the midset of jihads now get exported into space thanks to the fools from Boulder Colorado, Berkeley California and the political Kamikaze idiots from and the guys who launched Mohammedanism into space on Japan's Mitsubishi Rocket
https://en.mercopress.com/2020/07/20/ar … from-japan

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2021-11-30 10:39:24)

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#1 2021-11-03 09:52:48

Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

#2 2021-11-03 11:03:23

Re: Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

#3 2021-11-03 11:17:08

Re: Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

#4 2021-11-03 12:05:47

Re: Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

#5 2021-11-03 12:47:30

Re: Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

#6 2021-11-03 19:11:08

Re: Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

#7 2021-11-03 19:31:50

Re: Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

#8 2021-11-04 08:21:13

Re: Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

#9 2021-11-04 09:06:18

Re: Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

#10 2021-11-04 18:54:59

Re: Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

#11 2021-11-04 19:44:04

Re: Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

#12 2021-11-04 19:49:36

Re: Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

#13 2021-11-04 19:54:34

Re: Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

#14 2021-11-30 10:38:39

Re: Solar system choke points and the first mover advantage

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