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Nice catfight... ^^ It still amazes me how polite you can be at times, Josh. Must drive trolls crazy, you read like a patient monk. Now if I can add my two cents to increase the general confusion:
I think what is really driving Hop nuts if that your approach, however good or bad your results are, is conceptually flawed, because it doesn't take into account time. I mean, he insists and insists about gravity loss, and he's right about that, it IS a function of time. It could be minimal if your rocket shoots up at 20G's, or it could multiply delta-V several times if you choose to go up slowly and majestically, like the alien ships in sci-fi shows.
Thus, total delta-v to orbit, by definition, is at least in part a function of flight time, and therefore T/W. Figure out your flight time, and you have your gravity loss, no need to estimate (only since mass is a variable, so is gravity loss/s, and therefore getting the gravity loss involves integrating a differential equation, no two ways about that). If your model doesn't take that into account, as Hop says, try again. Or fix the T/W of your model so it only works for a given acceleration profile and stick with a given gravity loss. I'd suggest the Saturn V's, since it's rather pessimistic (T/W 1.18 at liftoff, barely enough to crawl away from the tower), and widely available.
Oh, and T/W of an engine, for the same engine, IS proportional to the fuel's density (a few engines can run several fuels, russian experiments with methane on kerolox engines jump to mind). Or to be more precise, with it's molecular weight, and directly proportional at that. The rest (which you can approximate to a fixed coefficient and not go too wrong about it) is the engine cycle that you use, and you weight efficiency (a function of the chosen material, and those don't really change that much)... with clever designing assumed, of course. That's why H2/LOX has such low T/W no matter what engine cycle you use.
On the actual topic of the thread, reusable rockets to orbit... I think we should open up a new one to discuss Musk's idea for turning F9 into F9"R"... I suppose you have seen the video and heard him talk about it? It looks... well, it made me grin like a stupid. And the words "like god and Robert Heinlein intended them to" jumped to my mind. Also, why has no one actually tried to do something like that before?
Rune. Now will you both get mad at me for obviously misinterpreting your argument? Most probably.
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n1112/05kepler/
NASA's Kepler space telescope has discovered a planet circling at just the right distance from another star, making for comfortable temperatures and supporting an environment for liquid water and possible life, scientists announced Monday.
Orbiting a star much like the sun, the planet is about 2.4 times the radius of Earth and has a year lasting about 290 days. But researchers need to know its mass, density and composition before declaring the planet Earth-like.
So, great news! First of many. This is what I got from the news conference (Video here for those that want to see it):
In this field, number 2 is the all important number, because we count one, two, infinity. As soon as we find a different, separate example of life somewhere else, we are going to know it's ubiquitous throughout the universe.
It sums up my feelings on it quite nicely, so I'll just use that and save on neurons. Go Kepler!
Rune. It's kind of an historic time to live in, right? On the verge of answering a very, very old question.
I missed the actual launch by 5 minutes (I had to literally run back home to get to the replays in time)...
Still, I made it in time to see you leave Earth's orbit. Spacecraft separation right now!! Kind of gives you a weird feeling, knowing we have shot something at another planet..
Rune. Goodspeed curiosity!
Glad to be back! It'll take me a while to get my posting groove back on, and maybe I'll wait a while for those couple of years of posts, but newmars is back in my browser tab collection... now at 20+ tabs open and counting.
Rune. In the right spirit, since I'm watching the launch of Curiosity.
Holy boop in the boop, I was missing these forums! What has it been, the better part of a year? I was seriously considering finding new friends to talk rockets with...
Hello everybody again!
Rune... Had almost forgotten to "sign" this post, that's how long has passed.
I was thinkink a soyuz-like configuration, so just the capsule section would need to reenter, and since you are designing it from scratch anyway... Anyhow, I know the Russian are just after easy euros for a dying space program, but I trust (well, more or less) that our politicians will get our fair share of any deal. If anything, we europeans are good at annoying people into accepting stuff for money.
Anyhow, I still agree with you in that ESA should get serious and start spending good money on space. After all, it would mean more work openings for me! I am all too eager to see anything that speeds the process of getting out there.
And you guys are going to see the ISS to the end of its operational life in the end? Good for you! I didn't knew about it...
Rune. Go ESA! (Wherever the changing whims of our politicians may lead you)
2. Because the ATV would need a complete redesign, it would be better to start again.
Not so mucho for LEO missions... Just exchange the cargo section with a crewed one (you can still use the same guidance system) and additional sensors for the Arianne. The development cost would be nothing like that of a new whole vehicle. It would be nuts to deny russian assistance (or american, for that matter) in any space program, though.
Still, given that the americans are pulling off the plug on the ISS so soon after completion, a vehicle like this would be useful to keep it up there through its intended life.
Rune. It's not the best ideas that get done, it's the possible ones.
What about the possibility of going directly from aerobake to glider?
Instead of just a parachute? Show me a design aerodinamically sound that doesn't weight more than the needed fuel for a controlled landing (wich is quite little) and I'll think about it, but think of it as bringing a plane with you all the way from Earth. And it would have to fit behind a heatshield and have some kind of landing gear.
Rune. After all, a parachute technically is a glider. So they are already doing it.
Sorry GNC!
My aim would be to make launches easier, build in fuel stops, create a "hopping" ability for the lander and ensure true reusability.
Have a look at the Delta Clipper design. If it is feasible for SSTO, it should work for Mars with proper ISRU. It may not be much cheaper than a non-reusable system, though, as the shuttle program has proven. And developing the ISRU capabilies is definitely not going to be cheap.
Rune. There is always a way... and probably somebody saw it first.
You mean slowing to near-zero relative to Mars before reaching the atmosphere? The fuel bill would be enormous.
[b]Yes, that's what I was getting at. It would be enormous but would it be a price worth paying in terms of reduced complexity and increased safety? There must be some mass saving on heat shield and parachute paraphenalia.
I would want orbital refuelling and possibly not just orbital refuelling - maybe also midway (or maybe Mars orbit) refuelling and on Mars refuelling.
Also, I wouldn't want the fuel for orbital refuelling to come from earth. I'd want that to come from the Moon. If we are confident of establishing a human ISRU mission on Mars, we would also be able to put in place a lunar base with lunar fuel production.
Further I would favour LEO assembly of maybe two or three parts.
If you put all that together, then I think you may be back to manageable proportions.
Actually, if you are so confident about ISRU, you could launch aditional disposable flying-tanks from the moon to refuel after the boost phase...
Not a bad argument at all, and I hope it is seriously considered, because the infrastucture neccesary to make it happen would prove incredibly useful for any other space proyect... But it may be a little too expensive for a first mission, on the other hand. And would require a fully functional moon base.
Rune. Everything has disadvantages.
Why not Phobos and Deimos? That would settle the debate between you two, and they have a delta-v lower than that of the moon. May even be possible partial aerobraking from the nearby Mars, to drop fuel requirements. A hell of a transit time, though.
Rune. Salomonic decisions.
Unless Israel treats Arabs like decent human beings l who can't be bought off with paltry offerings they will never find peace.
The thing is I'm not sure peace is strategically interesting for Israel. As a country with little population an a strong military, and with few if any friends on the region, it is entirely understandable that they are so agressive.
After all, a continued peace would mean their economic asimilitation by their more popoulus and resource-rich arabic neighbours. Destroying their infrastructure periodically, as cruel as it sounds, is their best long-shot plan. Not that it isn't cruel, or wrong, it's just economically sound. Israel cannot continue to be a democratic jew state if it accepts an islamic majority of citizens...
Rune. Economics is another name for the driving force of the universe.
Why should it accept an islamic majority of citizens anymore than we should accept a hispanic majority of illegal aliens from Mexico?
The problem is you can have either an islamic country or a democracy, not both. Muslims have a bad habit of imposing their will, religion, and customs on all minorities, they give muslims special status, special rights that others don't have, and woe to the fellow that insults Islam, or tries to convert a Muslim to a different religion, because the barbaric practise of head-chopping, stoning, or whiplashing may be employed to punish those transgressors. I think people in a more liberal Israel may have some qualms about letting in hordes of Muslims who will vote to change laws with their majority status and trample on many of their hard won freedoms of free speech, freedom of the Press, freedom of religion, seperation of church and state, and equality between men and women under the law. Muslims tend to be very pious, and their religion tells them that the supream law is derived from the will of Allah and the Koran and that anyone who opposes them is an infidel. I think its perfectly understandable that Israelis wouldn't want hordes of Muslims migrating to or "returning" to their country. One of the reasons they talk about ceding the West Bank and Gaza is so there will be places to put all the aggreived Muslims so they can live in their seperate societies that won't interfere with the democracy of Israel. So far though all Muslims know how to do is take, and there is no give in them. Israel may eventually grow tied of being missiled from Gaza and may simply choose to expel the entire population there when they feel they've had enough. Wouldn't you after all? Even Europe has found it Muslim populations difficult to live with, how can they expect Israel to do something they would not?
Wow, wow, woooow!!! Hold on a minute. There ARE islamic democracies. Turkey, for one, is about to enter the EU. Granted, there are problems of integration (as with every minority everywhere) and many non-democratic islamic coutries out there. But it is not impossible for an islamic state to be democratic, or secular for that matter. Any affirmation to the contrary is just misinformed.
Rune. What would be tricky is democratic jew state with an islamic majority.
Heatshield/parachute? Or just a funny rock.
Rune. It would be simple to check out if this was a manned mission... sigh!
Rune. Just how neccesary is gravity?
We know that people progressively deteriorate without any gravity, whether 1/6 g or 1/3 is enough we don't know.
So they could't return to any gravity well becouse their bodies would adapt to free-fall and bones and circulatory system would get weaker, I get that part. The question was on a more "filosofical" level: Do we really care, in the long run? There's going to be people working and living in zero g, so why not let them become dependant on it? If the habitation is permanent, they would be adapting to their habitat. Same on mars, albeit reduced to some exent by the 1/3 g. Would we want that?
Rune. Personally, I see it inevitable.
Tom, I don't know if you just haven't understood any of my points at all or if you're conciously ingnoring them:
100 space elevators daily makes 10 trips per day each carrying 50 people, That is 50,000 people a day!
There are 365 days in a year, thats 18,250,000 people in a single year! At that rate, it looks like we won't need much more than 100 space elevators, for it would only take 55 years to transport one billion people off Earth. Sure we could add another billion through natural birth in 55 years or less. I think space travel follows the law of supply and demand just like everything else, if space elevators reduce cost enough, there is no reason why billions of people couldn't travel into space. Space elevators are tiny compared to the surface of the Earth, you could fit as many as you need to accomodate as many as want to go that have the money to pay for it. If the space elevator, once established, is operated on a profit and loss basis, then the operators will build as many space elevators as they need to accomodate demand and maximize their profits, there would be no more going "hat in hand" to Congress seeking more money to build additional elevators, once the first one is proven.
If you get out of earth 50K people a day, and a million are born the same day, you end up with a larger population in earth the next day. In the course of a year, more yet. YOU DON'T SOLVE EARTH'S POPULATION PROBLEM AT ALL.
Anyhow, if you REALLY think getting off-planet 1 million people a day is a solution, much less a feasible one, I'm afraid I have to disagree on principle.
By the way, the "double every 25 years" is a figure wich has repeated itself historically (more or less) every time humanity has had the resources for the expansion. Basic Antropology, i've been told.
Rune. Paradoxically enough, we have the exact growth rate of one kind of animals: pests.
We don't have to bring pests with us into space as Gerard O'Neill once pointed out. Agriculture would occur in seperate cylinders, we would cook the soil to kill off all the pests, introduce only the organisms we need to grow the crops, and plant seeds in steril soil, the fruits and vegitables would be perfectly organically grown with no pesticide, and if the operation expands enough, some produce may even be exported down to Earth thus free up agricultural lands to regrow forests and expand the natural habitat. Imagine an Earth that just consists of pollution-free cities, suburbs, and parkland. Those endless square miles of cornfields, wheat, and cattle would be gone, replaces with bison, deer, and forests. The human race would be supported off-Earth. It doesn't take much energy to drops crates full of produce through the Earth's atmosphere, the materials would be obtained in space, probably from asteroids, and from those we could grow crops that would feed billions on both Earth and space. Our biggest footprint is our agricultural areas by the way, without those, much of the former farmland would go wild once again.
With pests I was talking about humans: we tend to reproduce and increase our numbers until we have depleted local resources, then move on to new places (emigrate) or die. We should work on that.
Terraformer, if the space colonists had a comparable population to that of earth, or some mighty technological miracle to let them produce so much (100% automated, self replicating robotic factories?) maybe they would be able to supply earth AND themselves.
Not going to happen tomorrow or in fifty years, though. We are still going to have to solve our resource-dependancy here on earth sooner than that.
Rune. World-scale problems require world-scale solutions.
AI robotics and especially nanotechnology are definitely "wildcards" that I may or may not choose to play in presenting my arguments. I think that if nanotechnology happens in the 21st century all bets are off, it really is hard to say what is and isn't possible with self-assembling molecular machines. Even more conventional AI robots open up many possibilities, if a human can build them, then equally capable AI robots can also build themselves. The process of conventional macroscale robots replicating themselves is more complicated than self-assembling molecules, but really all that is necessary is for them to take our places on the factory floor that builds them.
I think we may eventually have to share our Solar System with electronic beings or AIs, but the benefits that accrue to us would outweigh the additional resources they would consume. AI robots would expand our capability tremendously, terraforming Mars would seem like child's play by comparison.
Now THIS ONE I just don't get. What exactly has it got got to do with what I just said? Anyhow, I'm sure it makes some kind of sense to you, so please enlighten me.
Don't get offended, I just don't see the point of quoting me if what you're going to say has nothing to do with it.
Rune. Dialectically confused.
For an entire civilization yes, but for a colony definitely not.
The Moon has gravity, radiation shielding is not significantly harder than Mars, temperature variations at the Poles are manageable (just under the surface is almost optimal), day length can be easily handled artificially, there are unlimited quantities of O, plenty of Al, Fe, Si, Mg and Ca. There's H in the regolith too in small but extractable quantities. ISRU will take care of most of the DV and there's no comparison between transit times, Mars is 60 times further away. The Moon wins hands down for establishing the first off world colony.
If you follow that trend of thought, you end up with NEO as an easier yet alternative (except the gravity part). Besides, the entire outpost could be moved from site to site to gather resources, and the technology is essentialy ISS-like+ISRU.
Rune. Just how neccesary is gravity?
I think we are all a little gravity well-dependant. My personal belief is that humanity can, and should, adapt to free-fall in the long run in order to really utilize the solar system's resources and living space to its fullest. It may be way easier than trying to re-create another earth. Besides, in space you just need a good, closed life support system, just like in mars, don't you? And resources are just as abundant and probalbly easier to move around in the end.
Rune. Succesful species adapt to new environments.
Terraformer, if the space colonists had a comparable population to that of earth, or some mighty technological miracle to let them produce so much (100% automated, self replicating robotic factories?) maybe they would be able to supply earth AND themselves.
Not going to happen tomorrow or in fifty years, though. We are still going to have to solve our resource-dependancy here on earth sooner than that.
Rune. World-scale problems require world-scale solutions.
How long is the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG) expected to supply energy to the rover?
Umm... a few thousand years? RTG's work by getting electricity out of the heat generated by isotope degradation over time, so till the radioactive material cools off and stops being radioactive. The Voyagers had a similar system and are still under power, after all. My personal guess is that some other critical piece of equipment is going to fail first, but as to when, no idea.
Rune. Just like the Duracell bunny!
The system is designed to take as much as possible from as few voters as possible. Imagine paying for other services on that basis .. "excuse me Sir how much do you earn? ok, that will cost you much much more then"
Actually if US taxation system is any similar to European ones, there's a lot of taxes that apply equal to everyone, such as fuel,tobacco, etc... The "real" taxes that you pay each year are a way of evening out each citizen's taxation in funcion of their income, wich actually I think is a good way for the state to regulate class disparities and promote things such as equal opportunities for everyone. But correct me if I'm wrong.
Poor people in the US pay no taxes at all and even get tax benefits! Half the US population pay less than 3% of the taxes, is that fair? So why has that happened, because they have voted for a party that promises them that.
No direct ones, but in the country of "one car for everyone" (damn you for what that phrase has cost the planet!), I'm pretty sure they spend a fair percentage of their income in indirect taxation.
How much of the national wealth only exists because of those 5%? China has 5 times the population of the US, so why isn't it 5 times wealthier?
Wait till it reaches the same level of development as the US. And tremble in fear of their potential economic power.
Rune. Time to learn Mandarin.
In a little over 2 hours, if the solar panels deploy ok.
Rune. Hello martians!
"All for the people, but without the people"
Rune. I think somebody has said that before...
> The 22 publicly acknowledged deliberate transmissions to nearby stars.
Sorry bob, didn't see that. Still, 22 stars seems pretty lame if you really expect any practical result... and I didn't knew radar carried that far, by the way.
Sure, but if we continue to become more and more energy-efficient, it may very well be that we need to signal intentionally. For example, laser transmissions would we very economical in terms of energy use (and multipurpose too!), but hard to pick up if you're not the object being signaled.
Just saying that maybe we need to star shouting instead of just listening. In case we want to be found in the first place, of course. Same goes for the little fuzzy aliens.
Rune. Oh no! Alien attack in a few centuries! Run for your lives!
All hail the power of the Reds! After all, they did sell the americans those mock-ups as being genuine ICBM's... they were probably cutting off funds for the mars secret base.
Rune. You know? I think a sci-fi story about that might just work.