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Here's a better analysis and without the annoying AI voice.
This was just aired on YouTube, and incudes some interesting speculation regarding the failure of Super Heavy to successfully complete the boost back burn and reasons for the destruction of Starship 25. They link heating from hot staging as the reason, and concluded that some changes to the heat protection on subsequent flights would be needed.
I did a bit of Internet snooping today and found some WB-57 footage from the 14 April 2023 launch. Hoping for something similar from the Saturday flight, but so far nothing has been released (that I could find).
Back to the topic at hand, loss of the Starship, and failure of Superheavy to return to the Gulf of Mexico near Starbase.
There isn't enough information on Starship for anything other than some guesses.
Focus on Superheavy, I really think this is the first time that a "flip maneuver" has been attempted with anything this large and containing significant mass of CH4 and LOX. I am in agreement with GW's thoughts of voids caused by sloshing around, subsequently interrupting flow through the turbopumps, leading to loss of the engines and their failure to relight. I have no idea whether SpaceX has done much baffling in the tanks?
Has anyone seen the inflight video from the NASA WB-57 from near 60,000 feet? Nothing that I have seen so far.
I was out of the country for 5 weeks, traveling in Europe with my family. All is well!
Hello again, everyone. I've been away far too long, so this event is where I jump back into the discussions. The biggest "failure" was the Starlink connection with both vehicles which prevented the usual "go-pro" camera footage from being televised. We have yet to see the video from NASA's WB 57 which was supposed to be flying at nearly 60,000 feet to track the launch. Everything so far is speculation and educated guesses, although my initial thoughts mirror those of KBD512 and GW; cavitation in the sloshing fuel tanks/LOX tanks caused turbopump starvation and destruction of the engines. The FTS has been identified as the cause of both stages' destruction--as mandated by the FAA.
I watched the whole launch on Everyday Astronaut, where the tracking by associates of Tim Dodd did a marvelous job. I was seeing the heat shield tiles raining off the Starship, as did many others here on this website. Secure fastening of this shielding seems to be a major area of future concern once the engine restarting issues and unexplained FTS of Starship are resolved. Only AngryAstronaut provided some real sound bites--which were awesome. I normally like the SpaceX coverage the best, but as I'm not yet a member of "X;" that coverage was black screen. I normally follow Felix on What About It, EverydayAstronaut, Marcus House, Scott Manley, and AngryAstronaut for a spectrum of information and commentary. I need to get hooked up to "X" for future missions/launches.
One other possibility for the Jovian moon missions is a departure from a Mars colony. In that case, the total travel time to Callisto would be reduced to a more reasonable level. Nuclear Thermal propulsion departing from Mars orbit coupled with nuclear electric thrusters could conceivably reduce the travel time to maybe a 2 year journey there and a similar return voyage? This would necessitate a very large spacecraft to bring along enough food, water, and oxygen. A larger crew would be required in order to maintain something of a social network for combatting psychological issues.
Space is hard!
I'm sure Port Isabel is happy to be showered with SpaceX money from the employees business at establishments.
They need to "suck it up" and not complain about the financial impact of SpaceX doing what they do best--build and fly rockets.
IMHO, the height of the launch table should have been about another 20 feet higher and the same angle to the support legs; this would result in a greater distance between them at ground level, as well. A powerful water deluge when combined with a blast deflector at ground level would have certainly moderated or somewhat attenuated the blast of the raptors to the surrounding area.
The launch was still a success, in my book. The only failure was of "Stage Zero," the orbital launch mount. The destruction wrought by the engines was massive, and various YouTube presenters have photographic evidence thereof.
My take on what went wrong.
Engines out: initially only 3, then 6 by flight termination. Cause needs to be determined, but flying concrete debris is my suspected culprit. Any damage to engine bells or plumbing would result in shutdowns or explosions. There was one bright flash of one outer ring of engines which I suspect was an explosion.
Controlabilty: The engines in the center seemed to lack enough power to keep the asymmetrical thrust being developed by having engines in the outer ring failing to function.
These are all engineering side issues and not problems with the vehicle, per se.
My question is HOW TO LAND on Mars using these engines without wrecking the landing zone?
The Mars landers may also need to have their engines forward, ala the initial Goddard rockets or German "Repulsor" design of Hermann Oberth and von Braun in the 1930's. The designs proposed for the Moon Lander version may be the ultimate answer.
Ganymede may be more "scientifically interesting" than Callisto, due to the presence of a magnetosphere, but is far less hospitable.It would be possible to do some surface exploration of short duration there, but the radiation environment will still subject astronaut-explorers to manageable doses. Most of the time there will be spent below ground in radiation shelters.
Callisto is a better choice of an outpost for further Solar System exploration.
Europa is far to hostile on the planetary surface, w/r radiation.
Well, the 4-20 Date arrived and Starship flew. Not as great as everyone was hoping, but certainly a success. It accomplished several of the goals for this test flight: (1) Successfully lifted off and cleared the launch tower; (2) accelerated and passed MaxQ, even with several engines out; (reached a safe altitude for the FTS to be employed without without endangering anyone). But the MOST important accomplishment was--IT DIDN'T EXPLODE and wreck the launch complex!!
The "Stage Zero" is "mostly intact," but they really underestimated the destructive effects of the exhaust of 33 raptor engines operating at only 70% power. There were chunks of the Fondag concrete larger than the size of concrete blocks being hurled through the air like they were thrown from a trebuchet! One car was crunched and it was by a block of concrete such as the one I described above.
All these comments said--it was a great success.
AD ASTRA!
Of all the moons of planets in our solar system that could potentially be reached in reasonable time frames with current or developing technology, Callisto seems to be the "most hospitable," based on exposure to radiation and availability of essential resources.
I had never intended this thread to become "political," but due to the involvement of government in space travel, vis a vis NASA, it was unpreventable.
That said, I believe now that SpaceX has become the world leader in space exploration technology, and NASA is now "along for the ride." Other companies such as Axiom Space will now be "renting " their space suits to NASA.
Philanthropist Jared Isaacman is now paying his own way to space to do innovative research that NASA cannot find funding to accomplish, and will probably be the first pilot of the Starship.
Robert Zubrin has explored many of these possibilities in print. But I'm really happy to see these older topics revived and discussed actively,
Of all the possibilities stated in the OP, I mentally eliminated Venus as a colonization goal because of the sulfuric acid atmosphere.
We'll go to the Moon because it's close. We'll get to Mars because there's Elon Musk pushing us along and Robert Zubrin cheerleading as well as planning. Additionally, it does have enough gravity to probably mitigate bone loss and other physically debilitating illnesses. I also like Ceres, and Callisto as a dark horse candidate. Titan is too far away for colonization it the foreseeable future. I know that Titan has resources but extremely low temperatures which offset many of the "advantages." Ganymede is attractive but has radiation issues.
Added as a P.S.: We probably know more about Mars than we do about any of the other possible destinations; hence we're further along in going there.
Revisiting this topic after a lot more exoplanet astronomy has taken place, and more terrestrial type (Rocky planets) have been added to the known inventory. The problem we have is in the detection technology, which requires the transit observations by the orbital observatory. This means that a huge number of stars could have exoplanets which simply are in unfavorable orbits and subsequently remain undetected. More and more evidence is showing that planets around stars are the norm and not the exception, so there needs to be a change in the Drake equation increasing the probability of habitable worlds. The problem again, simply boils down to the energy requirement to achieve close to light speed, and how life will respond to moving at relativistic velocities.
A plasma cutter would make cutting these rings apart a piece of cake. Lowering and moving them would be another story, though, due to the weight involved. They aren't really that heavy in Mars gravity, but they would be very unwieldy to handle with primitive resources.
I've commented before that Callisto is the safest of the Jovian Moons for a potential base/colony, due to the least radiation from the Jupiter version of the van Allen analog radiation belts surrounding the planet. Isn't there a Callisto thread?
Re: your comment about Elon Musk and SpaceX not repeating mistakes. I'm sure Elon knows the Einstein definition of insanity, which is to keep repeating a failed experiment over and over, each time hoping for a different result.
In my laboratory years ago, if we didn't get the desired result, we first analyzed the entire experiment and looked for possible errors in conducting it. Then we possibly repeated it once, and if the same result obtained as before, we looked for a different solution to the problem at hand.
SpaceX COO Gwen Shotwell announced that the company has sold the 2 floating platform oil rigs, and is putting their plans "on the black burner."
The focus is now on the orbital test flights.
Successful Wet Dress Rehersal complete. Not a bad video but has other stuff included.
In my personal viewpoint--the bureaucrats are flexing their muscles to remain "relevant." It doesn't matter what the excuse is offered, but the outcome is being seriously affected by USFWS as much as by FAA.
I had a personal interaction with the Fish & Wildlife people back around the turn of Century from 20 to 21, around a small RODENT; the Prebles's Jumping Mouse was "determined to be an endangered species," and my ranch was considered to be in the "suitable habitat." Didn't matter that I had never seen one, nor had any of the neighboring ranchers. We were "forbidden" to burn our irrigation ditches for weed and brush removal, as irrigation ditches were supposed to be where they lived. These USFWS regulations were quietly removed after the mouse in question was determined to simply be a color variation of the common Jumping Mouse. I attended several public meetings on the subject--opening my fat mouth there and made lotsa friends with the neighbors.
P.S. I'd rather have Ocelots, as they'd keep rodents under control, as well as other undesirable predators.
Thomas-
My post was only illustrative of the ridiculous obstacles being placed in the path of Starship-to-Orbit. There are lots of Ocelots still in the Sonoran desert range of Mexico and other parts of Central America. They are only considered "endangered" in the Continental US. When I was a kid back in the 1960's, a friend of my Dad had one as a pet--in St. Louis! He finally had to get rid of it because his wife didn't like the fact that it stood upright on it's hind legs to pee--on her sofa.
The 3 items in the list posted by kbd512 are spot-on. The ocelot issue is one that raised my hackles, as it showed how off course the regulatory agencies have gotten! The agencies all are ready and ANXIOUS to show their power, not their common sense.