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GCNRevenger I know you think it would be impossible but frankly the potential for the SeaDragon is so high that a decent study should be done.Only then will we see if it makes a better Heavy Lifter than any other proposed design.
And another point why should the internal tanks be of steel. Or why not coat them with something else to protect the steel. But I have to ask when liguid oxygen and the like is transported by tanker what is those tanks made of.
And for exact welding and design diameters it may be that submarines are of a higher quality. Anything that is not exact will make the submarine either weaker underwater or worse more detectable by frictional noise. And a decent designer can ensure that supports and linkages are watertight and able to take the stress. An example is the missile doors of any boomer
The Odyssey missions has had a cash boost I wonder where it came from the cash that is. Probably from the funding from future missions or maybe even from the Hubble operating budget. But the necessary funding to save the Hubble from the doom its facing will leave a bill of a few Billion not the 10 million or so that has financed the Odysseys team for another year.
That is a lot of money 277 billion dollars but it is quite interesting when compared to the little accomplished by the 90 day report and at the cost of a substantially increased amount. Interesting to see a cost unit analysis I wonder how they can make this design as cheap as that and at that amount of personel located on the moon.
Of course this plan probably relies on some super cheap launcher but the Indian space Industry already has plans to develop a two stage to orbit launch vehicle. This could be how they reduce the costs.
Of course it could be as simple as by 2029 we will have invented something cheaper and launched by something cheaper. In that case its a piece of science fiction until it is linked directly with how they got that amount of mass up there.
This was a proposal to develop a manned base in LEO that could be sent up without the use of Heavy Lunchers and then assembled and boosted to the Moon.
http://www.marsinstitute.info/rd/facult … ]M.A.L.E.O Modular Assembly in Low Earth Orbit
It has advantages and disadvantages
Advantages, this allows launchers currently in service no need for heavy launchers, No need to build on the moon just send already made facilities for the Astronauts, It uses technigues already proven beam building and assembly in orbit ie ISS
Disadvantages
It requires multiple launches and this drives up costs. One failure to deliver a component and there is a major setback
Think of this as the Robots X prize.
http://www.darpa.mil/grandchallenge/]Darpa Grand Challenge
The grand challenge is now in its second year. The first year no organisation was able to meet many of the goals that had been put down. Actually all the robots either crashed or where deactivated for safety reasons. Interestingly as we are at the beginning of the AI science it means one of the most astounding organisations at the first grand challenge was a couple of friends from the midwest, who due to the simplicity they had designed into there entry it resulted in one of the most effective and at a shoestring budget compared to the big teams. We even had a team who had made a motorbike entry but forgot to plug something in so it went in circles before being "fenced". So Darpa's real interest is to push robot science to the point we have a robot which can reach a point destroy it and return home without further human control. But it will aid all the rest of the science when we have totally automated vehicles
For the Moon do lots of small but sucessful steps very often for the moon.
It is true the only way to go forward is to take one step after another but with a definite destination in mind. The hardest part of a journey is that first step.
So can we start, yes
Do we need new launchers to start, no
How do we start, we need to really plan where the best place to land our first permanent return to the moon. In short we need to use rovers on the Moon and we can do that reasonably cheaply and without the worry of having them survive more than 14 days. We need to do a good Mineral survey of the Moon especially the north and south latitudes around the peaks that have almost permanent light. If we find a decent flat spot near these peaks thats where we drop the rovers. The rovers will check the surrounding terrain and plant some homing beacons to allow further probes to come down right on spot.
If we give the people the belief that there son or daughter going through school and college can honestly go to the moon and mars, then you will get support its personal now.
Mars Direct is about sending crews of 4 scientists/astronauts these guys in the peoples eyes are not commen they are the cream of the elite. But if we have to send technicians, plumbers, surveyors, mechanics and the such. Then this is jobs that people with a bit of drive can go for. This is commen people no Dr so and so professor la de dah, commen people and your children can be that. That is when the space program becomes personal.
Ah but to provide the communication planned for mars it is envisaged that mars will have a form of internet. This needs a set of satelites and these could easil have a GPS function as well on their carrier band. And another option is to provide so called power tower type location radio signals.
these towers would be set at exact distances from each other have a signal from 3 and you can triangulate
You have forgotten about GPS.
We will have this if only so as to know where our poor astronauts are and to provide communications. That will give you more reference points
Not all analysts believe that the Chinese are as big as threat as some believe. In fact some think that the Chinese lion is actually a pussy cat.
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/oped-04x.html]Space daily article
It is an interesting article when you think about it. So much for a fear based space race
I found that to get second hand solar cells the best place is the telecomunications industry. Companies like British Telecom had installed solar cells in its junction boxes back in the early 1990s but have since replaced them with better and added small wind generators. As such there was for a while a glut of solar cell strips.
John Creighton you are a dreamer, but im glad you are. If it had not been for dreamers mankind would still be living in caves and going uuugh uuugh. But some ancient dreamer went Hmmm if I hit these two rocks together wonder what would happen....Fire.
Robots are still at an early stage in development but to make them intelligent is at an even earlier stage. We can do so much but it can be abused too easily. Everyone knows the Terminator and no one hopes this happens.
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/uav-04zzl.html]Military air power
this is the way some people think robots will go
edit sorry I cant make the link work
edit 2 sorry again managed to get it to work major apologies
This is a project that the Mars Society can do.
We design processes to deal with medical and suit emergencies. How do we deal with cracked faceplates and punctured suits. How do we deal with ill people in a space suit.
One idea is to have an emergency tent small enough to have one person in it but which allows an operator from outside work on the casualty inside.
In 2001 HAL was not what I would call exactly a very personable computer, Its voice was monotomous and its simple overiding drive was efficiency. It was only when given direct orders to lie and decieve that it decided that the crew where interfering with the programs goals. It then attempted to kill all the crew.
One of the first things that any Lunar base must be able to make is the solar cells which will be its lifeblood. Constant production and emplacement of these are the singly the most essential Industrial process that we will do. With electrical power we can increase the Industry and infrastructure.
It is the creation of solar cells in which the Moon has an advantage over Mars. Solar cells especially the easier to make ones we plan are not too efficient so a lot of sunlight makes up for this and they need a vacuum to be created and again the Moon has this.
The production of these solar cells actually lends itself to complete automation and again as long as we supply the resources the solar cell factory will keep turning them out.
You do know that when we get a decent high AI capable device it will probably be something similar to the HAL type computers in 2001.
Id thank my makers that im not called Dave
I like BeamBots they have been used by Robot enthusiasts and industry for decades. And they get better each year. But the one thing they are not is intelligent, they may have terrain object avoidance but no real complicated logic problems if they get stuck they just shout for help.
Im currently working on one to mow my lawn it will follow a magnetic wire around my garden and do my most hated garden chore. I could program the dimensions of the garden in and let it go but I believe the way im doing will give the straight lines I want.
One efficient use of Beambots is to provide fire and security services these Robots simply do not get bored while patrolling.
The Turing test is one of the few means we have to test a Robot or computer that would make a non biased way to see if we have an intelligent computer. But it has problems it relies on the skill of the human operator. And frankly I have run into certain people who would have trouble being classed as Human in this test.
edit I forgot to mention my beambot though wheeled had to get rid of the grass it had collected then return back to the point it had stopped at, needless to say im not having too much luck.
The statement it will take 500 people 500 years is a quote from a magazine article where an expert in robotics had been trying to tell us the layman just how hard it is to make a form of intelligence in robots. And Cog was one of the most successful attempts at learning robots ever created but like everything we are still at an early stage. But with computing power getting better at the exponential rate it is, I wonder if it could be bettered very soon.
The test to prove artificial intelligence is to have a person in one room and the subject in another. The tester then asks the subject various questions and it will be when the tester can not be sure if it is a robot or another person in another room that we will have reached one of the milestones of artificial intelligence. These questions are similar to what is your favourite color? how do you feel about it? We are a long way from that sort of capability. pity!
Martian Republic profit depends on your definition, I will put down the possible definitions and answer if I can.
1) Money
The Moon like all space operations will not make a profit at first. There are ways for the Earth to be supplied with electrical power from the Moon but this is the stuff for the future. What can be done is to use the resources of the Moon to supply the LEO and higher stations. But in the end you must have first built on the Moon before you get anything. In the end No money for nothing.
2) Science
This the Moon will be off immense benefit to mankind their are so many science applications that can only be done on the moon that is off immense benefit to man. Starting with astronomony, Lunar telescopes will be impressive and as they will be sited on the so called "darkside" they will be removed from the light and radio interference from the Earth. If we have multiple telescopes all looking at the same spot and without an atmosphere and with the long times that can be focused on a point it may be possible to actually see Earth type planets around other stars. With there being no atmosphere and the ability to use Super conductors in the constant tempatures we could have partickle accelerators as big as we want even as big as the whole circumfrence of the moon. Not to mention earth sciences our study of how the Earth got formed will be greatly helped with the study of the moon.
3) Morale
Imagine looking up and seeing lights on the Moon people will think it is there right to go to space. That alone is worth the whole trip.
In the end it will be the ability to reduce the cost of building infrastructure in space that will allow Humans to finally become a space faring nation.
That is why we will use robots, people cost too much and if we dont have to launch all the items that are needed from earth it saves money. If we can process Lunar soils to make Oxygen and materials that are needed in the Leo cheaper than are sent from the Earth then we have an export that will sell.
Many people say that tourism will open up space I doubt it, It will cost too much until the time that someone makes the supply of orbital hotels cheaper.
To program into a robot enough knowledge to have the intelligence of say a dog and a stupid one at that would take about 500 people 500 years. Not to mention they would run out of room in the robots brain to fill in all this code. The alternative is called artificial learning where you try through teaching get to the robot to learn similar to babies.
One such attempt was the robot called Cog but though a lot was learned in the attempt it remained that the robot could learn very very slowly unlike the intuitive learning of a human baby. It may be that we are incapable of getting robots to be truly intelligent as we have enough trouble ourselves in actually stating what is thought.
Oh and our robots are morons
Martian Republic NOTHING we do in space will be of economic value at the beginning it WILL only become of value when there is something to do. And we must build the infrastructure first before we can do anything that can make a profit.
So what if sending Robots to the moon will not make profits (at first) It will allow those who can make profits to operate, then and only then will space be open to all.
To design a system of telerobotics and operate it on the Moon it will roughly be one operator on one shift per robot and this makes them like the Heavy construction machines used by Industry with one driver on one machine. The other thing to do is to ensure the robots are tough and simple. Simple means less things that can break down and for ease of maintenance. If a commonality between the various robots can be achieved this will lead to us being able to make parts for the robots on the Moon.
The time delay between the Earth and Moon and then back is 4 seconds this is easy to operate machines on the Moon. Robots that operate on the Moon will not be high speed machines we will give them simple object avoidance and various sensors to increase safety. If we have Humans in one of these Robot operating zones we will equip with them devices to ensure no robot can get within a certain perimeter of the Human astronaut.
Things will get complicated when we reach the stage of large numbers of Robots operating but we can take certain actions to ensure less problems. One is to have deliveries to the factory sector be done by lunar railroad, a simple railroad true but railways lend themselves to telerobotic automation what are toy railway sets. One operator can control the whole system in an area.
But it must be remembered Robots are not as flexible as people so when we have people on the Moon it will make things a lot easier. We use robots to make the conditions for the people to reurn not replace them entirely.
It was fear that lead to the United States going to the Moon.
Kennedy and the US where sure that the USSR was ahead of them and that a lot of resources had to be used to get ahead and that was one of the motivators of the famous Moon speech. It was a challenge and that started the Moon race.
Of course the fact that the Moon if you stationed Nuclear missiles on would mean no one could use a surprise attack and expect to take out the opposition. Certainly this was of the opinion of the US air force who planned a nuclear missile base on the Moon. Also missiles fired from the moon would have all the advantages of the so called down the well attack.
But those where dark days and paranoia was institutional, it had not been that long since the end of the McCarthy era and the USA was scared at the continous visible advancement of the Communist threat. Then came sputnik and no one felt safe anymore.
Martian Republic you state we need advanced AI systems to operate on the moon this is wrong. It will be many many years before we have functioning AI systems that have the complexity and power to operate in the enviroment. You probably have not really read my earlier posts but im dealing with tele robotics.
Robotics as a science as we term it is in an interesting position we can build the bodies the legs and arms that are light and functional. Powerplants are also in a good position and the sensors are good too and advancing. The problem is we just cant make them think, we do not have this knowledge but as this science is still in its infancy it will one day be sorted.
Telerobotics is where we have human operators in near constant control of the Robot from a distance. We have a lot of skill in this regard and can easily fly planes and control submarines with this skill. Most space probes are examples of tele robotics in action. The two probes on mars are small versions of what we plan. Telerobotics will allow Human operators if used on the moon to have almost no difficulty due to time lag and this allows a lot more effective operation.
Why use Telerobotics to build infrastructure on the Moon, well robots will be able to operate without life support and for the full 14 day lunar day. The actual weak element in the function is the Human operator and if we use a shift system with about 3 centers set around the world it means we can use the robots almost constantly. This allows a building and mining rate almost worthy of any Earthside mine.
There are of course problems with using robots, Maintenance being the main problem but these problems can be solved using reasonable methods. In the case of maintenance the robots can go to a "repair shed" where operators on earth can involve itself in seeing what is the robots problem. If we can use Tele robotics to allow doctors to operate on humans using a robot do you think we are worried about working on a much easier anatomically robot? As for the maintenance of the heavy machinery, the solar ovens etc we use smaller more flexible robots, think R2D2 with arms.
The one reason that telerobotic infrastructure creation on the Moon is one of the most efficient methods of a foothold being gained is that it has been well researched. We could use the Shuttle C style to send the base machinery to the Moon in only a few launches. Additional robots can be added as required. This plan was one of the spinoffs from when people found the 90 day report to be too expensive.