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#1626 Re: Human missions » Dr Jeffrey Bell - His Personal View » 2004-12-23 10:00:27

Maybe what jerks the chain is not his opinions, but that his opinions may be right...

It's hard to accept that a deep seated conviction can be wrong.

How dare you suggest that a few thousand  [hundred] [dozen] wild-eyed space enthusiasts typing away on the interent cannot change eveything!

Traitor!

big_smile

#1627 Re: Not So Free Chat » Who/What Saved Apollo? » 2004-12-23 09:53:45

I agree with Cobra:

Finishing Apollo was about reverence to the whole myth of Camelot and JFK as Arthurian King - - before race riots, before Vietnam turned ugly etc. . . (Think Jackie Kennedy, John-John saluting his father's casket, Camelot as Broadway play etc. . .)

Naturally, Camelot was a myth but to abandon Apollo in the mid 1960s would have been to reject that myth and show disrespect to our martyred boy-hero king, JFK.

Also, it appears the Soviets were far closer to the Moon than we knew. Astronautix.com has a few marvelous articles about how the Soviets deliberately lied about the Moon race once it was clear they had lost.

"We lost, you say? Nah. We were never racing in the first place." Walter Cronkite fell for that one hook, line and sinker.



Edited By BWhite on 1103817425

#1628 Re: Human missions » Dr Jeffrey Bell - His Personal View » 2004-12-22 19:09:17

On this point,

So when I describe myself as a "recovering pro-space activist", I mean that I have given up on the idea that a few thousand wild-eyed space enthusiasts can bring the Millennium.

Bell is probably correct.

#1630 Re: Human missions » Has Dr. Zubrin Addressed Mars Direct Objections? - A few questions? » 2004-12-18 13:27:06

I hate to use the metaphor, but when we talk about building a larger booster than the Ares, its not really rocket science.  Its easily doable from an engineering standpoint.

Politics and finding money are the show stoppers, not the engineering.

#1631 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Earth to LEO - discuss » 2004-12-17 22:14:32

GCNRevenger, how cost effective will an RLV be for slogging fuel to  LEO?

If a nice nuclear powered ship were riding "at anchor" then to ferry up crew in an RLV seems great, but if we are lifting LH2 and LOX in 20 MT and 30 MT tanks, how can we go anywhere?

It still seems to me that an expendable that had a very high fuel to dry weight mass fraction (Thiokol SRM tweaked to 95/5 for example) would be cheaper for lifting LH2 and LOX tanks. Being ultra-expendable, its NOT man-rated, ever.



Edited By BWhite on 1103343911

#1632 Re: Human missions » Has Dr. Zubrin Addressed Mars Direct Objections? - A few questions? » 2004-12-17 19:46:15

Since a mission architecture based on 2 shuttle C+ is most likely cheaper than building Ares (if Delta "V" can come close to shuttle C+ well that's okay also) and 2 shuttle C+ can throw more to Mars than one Ares, then that is what we should be looking at for mass budget numbers.

Shuttle C+ will absolutely be cheaper if it is used for something in addition to Mars, such as lunar cargo support missions, JIMO class missions (and I still believe an orbiter can "play catch" with a shuttle C launched truss payload for ISS completion) etc. . .

1 shuttle C+ lifts the Mars hab and some fuel. The 2nd lifts fuel and engines. A Delta IVH (or Kliper) carries up crew, spacesuits and extra food. The total mass available will be much higher than Ares.



Edited By BWhite on 1103334416

#1633 Re: Not So Free Chat » O'Keefe Resigns :: Zubrin Should Apply for the Job - Wanted: New NASA Chief » 2004-12-15 13:30:43

I don't think if even Klipper could deliver tourists to the ISS cheaply enough... $40-50M for the launcher, another few million for the orbital module/airlock/docking adapter, another seven digits to refurbish Klipper/amoratize replacements, oh and don't forget food & LSS supplies.

That is less than what Dennis Tito paid.

If the US withdraws from ISS do we insist on de-orbiting the thing or do we "give" it to the Russians?

#1634 Re: Human missions » More ISS hardball - How does this affect US vision? » 2004-12-15 13:25:13

I believe the article is seeking funding to use Kliper as an ISS transport. And unless we withdraw from ISS participation soon, we may need to do something to allow a better job of crew transfer than Soyuz, especially since CEV is not scheduled to be man-rated until 2014.

#1635 Re: Not So Free Chat » O'Keefe Resigns :: Zubrin Should Apply for the Job - Wanted: New NASA Chief » 2004-12-14 20:15:09

I see two possibilities. The more likely, it ends up getting de-orbited, liike Mir.

Less likely, the EU uses the US abandonment of ISS as a rallying cry to get additional funding for Proton shots to add other, different modules and they use Kliper for crew transfer and they run the thing.

By the way, Jeffrey Bell predicted ISS incineration before 2010 about a year ago, IIRC.

#1636 Re: Human missions » Post central for information on CEV 2 - ...continue here. » 2004-12-14 20:11:21

Yeah... much less developed evolution strategy, more difficult to man-rate, and major componets made in Russia.

Lockheed should be worried.

Looks like a political no-brainer to me.

Delta IV is a probably a lock for CEV and all the components. Which means some astronauts will visit the Moon towards 2020 and then, what?

#1637 Re: Human missions » - - CEV RFP - One comment » 2004-12-14 17:54:26

NASA ought to build some kind of HLLV, even a lighter 80-100MT one, but if money is the number one concern then its clear that NASA will likly stick with EELV+.

Cheaper overall and substantially less capable.

If we go EELV for the Moon, GCNRevenger, then I suspect most of your arguments about MarsDirect being too light to be useful will apply to our "Return to the Moon" as well.

Try sending lunar mining gear one EELV+ at a time.  :;):  ???

#1638 Re: Not So Free Chat » O'Keefe Resigns :: Zubrin Should Apply for the Job - Wanted: New NASA Chief » 2004-12-14 17:50:20

If we scale back ISS, no need to to not fly a Hubble service mission. Hubble is a public relations icon. Perhaps its not logical, but to scrap Hubble in favor of VSE will provide the VSE with negative PR capital.

How we scale back ISS will be interesting to watch as well.

#1639 Re: Human missions » Post central for information on CEV 2 - ...continue here. » 2004-12-14 17:45:15

What does the future hold for the Atlas V?  Perhaps an upgrade to the RD-171 engine, or two RD-180's, or four RD-191's.  Maybe a 5m core, if they want to build a new infrastructure.  More powerful upper stages are a given.  Lockheed Martin's published (although uninspiring) plan for the VSE calls for a 70 MT booster, so one must assume that this booster is in the works.

Are these Russian engines made in America?

#1640 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2004-12-14 13:11:58

Heh! Cindy, Carl Sagan would be horrified by the teaching of intelligent design as being co-equal with evolution.

#1641 Re: Human missions » Post central for information on CEV 2 - ...continue here. » 2004-12-14 11:33:31

Do these new specifications for the CEV suggest NASA has decided NOT to go the direction of a new heavy booster? That is will stick to upgraded Deltas and Atlas? It seems to suggest that to me.

         -- RobS

Me too, although CEV on Delta and ESM and LSAM together on shuttle C seems feasible as well.

Do we really want an all Boeing operation?

#1644 Re: Human missions » Has Dr. Zubrin Addressed Mars Direct Objections? - A few questions? » 2004-12-13 15:11:46

As for using old worn out HABs and various bits and pieces as some kind of "base," please thats nonsense... MarsDirect is also incapable of delivering large enough payloads to Mars for base building, and if you are using the excuse that humans can do science more efficently then robots, then you WILL be landing all over the surface... Try that one with the science review boards and you'll just get laughed at.

Taken from The Case for Mars, page 89:

Using nuclear thermal, a 140 tonne HLLV can deliver 46 tonnes to the surface of Mars. Go with 210 tonnes from using 2 Shuttle C+ instead of Ares and that is 69 tonnes in payload.

How many of those cargo shots would be needed to get a permanent base up for 12 people and running? 

Page 91:

If chemical propulsion is used, then the unmanned cargo flight launched by a single 140-tonne-to-LEO booster can deliver 28.6 tonnes to the Martian surface, while the faster piloted flight can deliver 25.2 tonnes. Can a manned Mars mission be designed within these mass limites? if it can't, we could alwasy design a bigger booster or go ahead and develop the NTR stage. But let's see if we can make it with nothing better than a Saturn V and chemical propulsion. If we can, then more advanced technologies or propulsion capabilities and their associated benfits are icing on the cake.

GCNRevenger, very few Mars Society types will oppose nuclear propulsion. Or building bigger boosters.

The question is how to build momentum when the NASA, Boeing/Lockmart propaganda is that we need 30-40 years of practice on the Moon before we even begin thinking about Mars.

If the VSE included nuclear thermal development from the beginning, few would argue against waiting for it.

#1645 Re: Human missions » Has Dr. Zubrin Addressed Mars Direct Objections? - A few questions? » 2004-12-13 11:32:23

General Simon "Pete" Worden wants to send people to Mars, to stay. Draft him for the new NASA administrator.

GCNRevenger, we need to promote the idea of "staying" as the motivation.

Science? Apollo style may well be fine since three Mars Direct missions gives over 6000 man-days on Mars. National prestige? Plant the flag in the red dust. No reason to stay.

But to go bigger and get nuclear propulsion we need political support for going and staying.



Edited By BWhite on 1102959389

#1647 Re: Human missions » Has Dr. Zubrin Addressed Mars Direct Objections? - A few questions? » 2004-12-13 10:56:25

What would be the change if the fuel to go to mars was not Lox / H2 but Methane does the same problem of boil off occur? Since methane would be used on the ERV why not keep that the constant once you leave Earth instead.

Boil off is only one issue. Keeping methane or LH2 or LOX stored for several years while in orbit seems risky.

Direct return from Mars to Earth has the advantage that the astronuats can stay on Mars (the 2nd safest location for humans in the solar system) unless they KNOW the ERV has full fuel tanks.

But you can blend the architectures. A minimal MAV capable (barely) of Earth return via chemical propulsion and a robust habitat parked in Mars orbit with a nuclear thermal engine.

Dock the MAV to the Earth return vehice and fly both back to Earth. Use the MAV to land on Earth and park the habitat in LEO for future use. Design the nuke thermal engine to be a modular "plug and play" system and you have a re-useable architecture. Dicard the used nuke thermal module and attach a clean engine module and re-use.

#1648 Re: Human missions » Has Dr. Zubrin Addressed Mars Direct Objections? - A few questions? » 2004-12-13 09:40:31

Robert Dyck,

GCNRevenger's acceptance of a Mars mission built on two light HLLV (upgraded shuttle C) is probably the fastest way to Mars. Even faster than classic Mars Direct since Ares is a developmental step beyond an upgraded shuttle C.

Money? Using multiple shuttle C+ with no Ares development costs is probably cheaper than Mars Direct with Ares. And shuttle C+ will have assorted uses Ares may be just too big to justify, right now. Of course, Ares can be developed off a shuttle C+ as a straightfoward program.

When I listened to Robert Zubrin speak (both in Chicago and Boston)  he said he was agnostic about choice of HLLV.

= = =

One branching point I see is nuclear thermal. With nuclear thermal, an Earth return ship could be parked in Mars orbit rather easily. Without nuclear thermal, pushing fuel to Mars orbit seems to be both expensive and risky due to boil-off concerns. The MAV ascent vehicle hits low Mars orbit and discovers empty fuel tanks. ;-(

Robert Zubrin's Case for Mars plainly contemplates the possibility of nuclear propulsion but we need to get over the idea that JIMO actually will assist human flight and just build some nuclear ships that can push people.

GCNRevenger, building political momentum for an all chemical Mars Direct makes it more likely that a nuclear add-on gets funded. To say Mars must wait for nukes and then to say that nukes are too sensitive, politically is merely subterfuge for saying "No" to Mars, period.

Get the public behind an all chemical Mars mission and then explain why we need nuclear propulsion as an "add on" - - since saying "No" to Mars is high on the political agenda of a surprisingly large number of "Moon-first and only" people, I want as few show stopping obstacles as possible.



Edited By BWhite on 1102952603

#1649 Re: Human missions » Has Dr. Zubrin Addressed Mars Direct Objections? - A few questions? » 2004-12-12 21:22:38

As for A&B, it looks like neither will be happening. Payload modifications and last-mile guidence of ISS payloads makes launch on ANY vehicle but Shuttle prohibitively difficult. CEV requirements also seem to spell out multiple uprated EELVs instead of "light" HLLV like Shuttle-C.

If this proves true, then 2020 will arrive and we will see we still lack the capability to do anything worthwhile. Maybe that is the real objective of the VSE after all. ???

#1650 Re: Human missions » tSpace » 2004-12-12 18:18:50

Ah again, the billion-thimble-full strategy, continuing in the fine tradition of progressively lowering the bar so the AltSpace folks can get into the game... Kind of sad really.

SDV tankers (shuttle C) would seem to work just fine.  :;):

Launch 70,000-80,000 kg of fuel with a cluster of RL-10s or RL-60s stuck on the bottom.

Mate with whatever and go wherever you want. . .

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