New Mars Forums

In theory, it would be plausible that Mars in the long run could have a population in the billions. The land on Earth excluding Antarctica has a population density of 145 people/sq mi. Of the Martian surface area of 55.91 million sq mi., roughly 40% of it will be future seabeds, and another 5% would be too high up to ever be effectively terraformed (i.e., the vicinity of Olympus Mons), leaving 30,750,500 square miles of usable land, or around 4.46 billion inhabitants of Mars using Terran population density. Even taking out China and India, Earth's population density is reduced only to around 103 people/sq mi., still leaving 3.17 billion Martians. That being said, there are caveats. Newly-settled areas tend to have much lower population densities than older areas. The Americas collectively have a population density of 61 people/sq mi. (1.88 billion Martians), and Australia has one of a mere 8.3 people/sq mi. (255 million Martians). Depending on what exactly Mars has to offer for resources (of which this thread isn't too terribly optimistic), I myself would bet on an ultimate Martian population of around 250-500 million people. This isn't too terribly small, around the same population as the United States, and it's certainly enough to sustain a sizeable economy, though it likely wouldn't be achieved in this century.

For economy, I can't see much in the way of potential export products to Earth, with much of the economy being between different municipalities or services within the same municipality. I guess the massive amounts of Iron in the regolith would make Mars a good market for that in a niche sense. Ultimately though, I can't see there being much GDP per capita advantage over most OECD countries if there isn't that much to produce. For other statistics, I see an HDI of around 0.800-0.900 given a probably-lowered life expectancy of Martians relative to the first world, although how much education would make up for this I don't know.

1) That is true, although as I feel Martian colonization is inevitable (as detailed below), some level of governmental organization will likewise be inevitable, and a country would be the best for that. I do agree that any country formed would be its own and not merely an extension of a Terran country, at least nominally. Mutually-assured backlash would likely prevent any country from expanding itself onto Mars.

2) That is also true, but if the US, Russia, and China each oppose what they feel would be as you say "interference" on the part of an organization that is quite pointedly not a government, they could perhaps use each of their veto power in the Security Council to sink it, though I am admittedly ignorant about the structure and workings of the UN. As for COSPAR and the treaty, I feel as if Martian colonization is inevitable because in the words of George Mallory, "it is there", and that the treaty would very likely be disregarded, at least initially, by those with the means to go to Mars. I do feel as if the treaty will be amended to make a distinction between space and celestial objects. I feel like humanity will collectively shoot itself in the foot if Mars, and especially other celestial objects, are treated as a new Antarctica.

3) That is a very interesting point. I simply assumed the Dollar would be the initial currency, before the planet is mature enough to decide its own monetary policy, because it is the most-traded currency on Earth, and given that Musk is Americentric. You do raise a good point about the US claiming Mars via an American company. If I'm not mistaken in history the United Kingdom took control of India from the British East India Company. I do perceive, however, that American influence globally is on the decline, so I'm not sure how it feels as if it can get away with a similar action a couple decades from now.

4) I agree to a large extent, and such a development mirrors the development of Commonwealth countries, although the ultimate fate of the company once full democracy/responsible government is obtained beats me.

To ultimately address your point about Musk, I'm not sure what really he <i>can</i> say given the political climate, without enraging at least some people. Perhaps he'll appoint the leadership of the first mission and let the government grow organically from there.

As for formatting, I would greatly favor Year-Month-Day. It's the system we on this forum use, and it makes sorting by date easier.

The problem with sugar beet, if I'm not mistaken, is that its molasses is unsuitable for human consumption unlike that of the sugarcane. Therefore, you can't make brown sugar (which is molasses mixed with table sugar) and thus the imitation maple syrup.

Rubber is a ubiquitous material here on Earth, and it would be beneficial for a colony to not have to import it. According to http://www.agrifarming.in/rubber-plantation/, rubber trees beginning yielding latex 6-7 years after being planted, though this could be mitigated by bringing 6 year old plants to the colony and then replanting them where desired. Trees also require high humidity, though this shouldn't be that much an issue. A water table of at least 1m that is ideal for growth might be problematic, though a hanging garden scenario might be possible like what SpaceNut posted. For seedling trees the yield is around 375-400 kg/hectare (~330-360 lb/acre), and from budded plants 800-1000 kg/hectare (~710-900 lb/acre) is possible.

As for vulcanization, which makes rubber suitable for most of its industrial uses, sulfur is needed to link the polymers and strengthen the material. According to http://www.rubbercal.com/industrial-rub … ze-rubber/, there are a couple of processes, but they both boil down to introducing sulfur and other components as need be to the rubber to strengthen it. Apparently traces of sulfur have been found in the Martian soil, so that gives some more hope for domestic rubber production.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c … onsumption

Electricity consumption varies widely by country, but let's assume that Martians will consume ~2500 W/person, a relatively high level for a developed country. For a colony of 12, this translates to 30,000 W for the whole colony, or around 3 power systems in SpaceNut's paper. Given that each system would need around 1000 m^2, this means around 3000 m^2 (33,000 sq ft.) for the entire grid. A similar analysis for a colony of 100 yields 25 systems and 25000 m^2 (270,000 sq ft.), but a more sophisticated system would probably be in use by then.

I share your suspicion. The Total Daily Energy Expenditure (TDEE) is the number of calories a person expends every day. It depends on a lot of things, including height and weight, and you should eat that amount in food if you want to keep your body weight. So a smaller person will have a lower TDEE, and thus will eat less.

Weight is something that can generally be controlled, in that if you have the same diet and exercise as someone of your height who is 150 lb (or any given weight) you will generally eventually gain/lose weight to become 150 lb yourself. That's why I "assumed" a healthy weight for Martians in calculating and controlling portions, so that there wouldn't be an obesity epidemic on Mars like there is in America.

What can't be controlled, however, is height. I assumed that the average Martian man would be 5'10 and the average woman 5'5, which are the respective median heights for white Americans (and I myself am a 5'10 male). However, more height in general means more mass, so for the sake of economics shorter people will probably be dominant in an early permanent settlement. Also, lower gravity means that people will be slightly taller, and according to Space.com, in microgravity this can be up to 3%, or around 2 inches for most human heights, which would further increase the amount of food needed for a colony.

Diseases are particularly harmful for fish, as treating diseases is very impractical since only one fish at a time can be treated. Therefore, usually if a fish is infected the entire school would have to be slaughtered and disposed of, bringing us back to square one. (On another note, I guess when we have chickens on Mars, we'll make egg washing mandatory like the United States, rather than forbidden as in Europe. Sure, it means we'll have to refrigerate them, but it does sterilize them pretty well.)

Agreed on both counts. There is a certain opportunity cost associated with agriculture, and this is higher with animals since animals also have to eat food that would otherwise be for human consumption. And even when Mars has been terraformed, there is probably no need to ever introduce mosquitoes into it. Although I might be willing to make an exception to the no-insects rule for bees and their honey.

The problem with using the average weight of Americans is the fact that 70% of American adults are overweight or obese (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm), and I worry that the same might happen to Martians if they adopt the same eating habits. (I myself am guilty of this; I'm 5'10", and in the summer of 2015 weighed a whopping 205 lb. I have since dropped to 180, but am still a bit pudgy.) 170 lb is around the upper limit of a healthy weight range of someone who is 5'10". In all fairness, Martians would probably be a bit taller due to lower gravity. According to space.com this would be an increase of up to 3% in microgravity, so someone who would be 5'10" on Earth would be up to 6' in a low-gravity situation (not necessarily Mars, which does have a sizeable gravity). In that case the maximum healthy weight would be 180 lb.

Regarding Quinoa, RobertDyck's post on it in the very first page of this thread notes that a 100 g serving of it has 368 calories. I'm going to assume a colony with at least two people and which is exactly evenly divided by sex, and that the average height of the men is 5'10" and that of the women is 5'5", based on data from the US Census Bureau. The average weight should be right in the middle of a healthy weight range, which given these heights according to a BMI chart is 150 lbs for the gentlemen and 130 lbs for the ladies. The Total Daily Energy Expenditure (TDEE) is the number of calories that should be consumed to maintain such a weight, which according to https://tdeecalculator.net/ is, assuming 15% body fat for the men and 22% for the women (which is fit according to https://www.builtlean.com/2010/08/03/id … ge-chart/) and that the average colonist is 25 years old and gets light exercise moving around the colony and its surroundings, 2226 calories/day for men and 1875 calories/day for women, which averages out to 2050.5 calories/person-day for a colony.

From this average an individual colonist would need 748,432.5 calories/(Earth) year, which amounts to around 2 kg of quinoa if that's all they ate (which would be a bit miserable, but for the sake of example). For a colony of 100, this means 200 kg are needed. Apparently with normal methods (let alone intensive ones) a whopping 500-900 kg of crop can be produced on 1 acre (https://www.saltspringseeds.com/pages/g … dans-scoop), so using the low end of that yield a mere 2/5 of an acre (17,424 sq ft./1,618.74 m^2) would be needed, quite a bit less if there's variety in the Martian diet. RobertDyck's colony of twelve would need even less, a cumulative 24 kg of the stuff that can be grown on 0.048 acres (2,090.88 sq ft./194.2491 m^2). My city block in Chicago has an area of 148,500 square feet or 13,500 m^2, enough land to grow enough quinoa for more than 1,000 colonists.